My dumb idea about the Pats trading down

[Phil Plantier]

OK, you talked me out of Kyle Trask. Now I, as a rank amateur, have another prediction:

The Pats trade out of the first round and maybe the second, too.

Here's why:

• This year's draft is much more uncertain than ever before, for obvious reasons. Would you trade the 15th pick for 4 3rds this year? Since everyone is a lottery ticket, the team might as well pick up more lottery tickets. This seems like the draft where more first round busts happen and more 3rd round gems happen.
• But teams are going to fall in love with prospects and want to move up. Would you trade the 15th pick this year for the 15th pick next year? I would. This doesn't fit in with the immediate free agent time horizon, but I still don't think Belichick is in "win now" mode. Later drafts have more certainty.
• Top prospects are not running (afaik) the short shuttle or 3-cone. If I understand correctly, the Patriots place heavy weight on those.
• It would fit in with the free agent bonanza if Belichick wants to underweight this draft.
• A lot of the team's needs (DL, DE, WR) can be fulfilled later in the draft, since there are (again, afaik) no super-great DL or DE prospects, and tons of strong WR prospects

I mean, it will be disappointing (I'm hoping for DeVonta Smith falling, personally). But I think it fits with what we've seen so far.

OK, tell me why this is crazy.

 

[tims4wins]

Statement of fact: the Pats have too many draft picks; they can't use all their picks and expect them all to make the roster.

Therefore, they can do one of two things with their excess picks: use them to trade up / maneuver around the board, or punt them to 2022 and beyond.

I expect that we'll see a combination of both.

If they do not trade up for a QB, then I could see a situation where they trade down a few slots, pick up another 2nd or 3rd rounder, and draft a OL like Darrisaw, or possibly a CB, although I expect both Horn and Surtain to be gone by 15.

Either way it is going to be a super interesting night.

 

[sodenj5]

OK, you talked me out of Kyle Trask. Now I, as a rank amateur, have another prediction:

The Pats trade out of the first round and maybe the second, too.

Here's why:

• This year's draft is much more uncertain than ever before, for obvious reasons. Would you trade the 15th pick for 4 3rds this year? Since everyone is a lottery ticket, the team might as well pick up more lottery tickets. This seems like the draft where more first round busts happen and more 3rd round gems happen.
• But teams are going to fall in love with prospects and want to move up. Would you trade the 15th pick this year for the 15th pick next year? I would. This doesn't fit in with the immediate free agent time horizon, but I still don't think Belichick is in "win now" mode. Later drafts have more certainty.
• Top prospects are not running (afaik) the short shuttle or 3-cone. If I understand correctly, the Patriots place heavy weight on those.
• It would fit in with the free agent bonanza if Belichick wants to underweight this draft.
• A lot of the team's needs (DL, DE, WR) can be fulfilled later in the draft, since there are (again, afaik) no super-great DL or DE prospects, and tons of strong WR prospects

I mean, it will be disappointing (I'm hoping for DeVonta Smith falling, personally). But I think it fits with what we've seen so far.

OK, tell me why this is crazy.

I would say the middle of the first round isn’t a super attractive place to be in this draft. There is a lot of high end talent, and I think there are a lot of guys that are high second round talents that are going to go in round 1.

Trading out of round 1 and getting some extra ammo in rounds 2 and 3 where there is better value in this draft is not a crazy proposition.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Would you trade the 15th pick this year for the 15th pick next year? I would.

I'm guessing you know you can't do this in reality, so I'll answer it this way. Given all the improvements the Patriots have already made this offseason, what is the likelihood they would have a Top 15 draft pick next season?

They might not have this type of position (without trading) for awhile, so I would do everything I could to move up in this draft and, if that fails, see who's there at 15 before trading out.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think the Patriots might trade down, but if they do I expect them to be trading out, picking up draft picks next year more than multiple picks this year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I would say the middle of the first round isn’t a super attractive place to be in this draft. There is a lot of high end talent, and I think there are a lot of guys that are high second round talents that are going to go in round 1.

Trading out of round 1 and getting some extra ammo in rounds 2 and 3 where there is better value in this draft is not a crazy proposition.

Think it depends on who falls. Quite possible a guy like Parsons or someone else that another team may value highly could be there at 15. Definitely not a crazy proposition to trade down but, as Tims points out, the Pats' FA bonanza greatly reduce the number of potential roster spots.

I expect them to pick up some additional mid round 2022 draft capital.

 

[Phil Plantier]

I'm guessing you know you can't do this in reality, so I'll answer it this way. Given all the improvements the Patriots have already made this offseason, what is the likelihood they would have a Top 15 draft pick next season?

They might not have this type of position (without trading) for awhile, so I would do everything I could to move up in this draft and, if that fails, see who's there at 15 before trading out.

Right, it's a thought experiment.

What I mean is: I trust Belichick to be able to put confidence intervals around teams' performance in 2021. So I believe he can gauge the position of a draft pick next year +/- 5 picks. So let me rephrase as "would you trade the 15th pick for a pick likely to be 10-20 next year?"

I would still do that deal.

 

[sodenj5]

Think it depends on who falls. Quite possible a guy like Parsons or someone else that another team may value highly could be there at 15. Definitely not a crazy proposition to trade down but, as Tims points out, the Pats' FA bonanza greatly reduce the number of potential roster spots.

I expect them to pick up some additional mid round 2022 draft capital.

For sure. I wouldn’t trade out until I see how the top 14 shakes out, but it’s possible all of the QBs, all of the top WRs, Pitts, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and Surtain are gone. If that’s the case, you’re staring down a bunch of tier 2 players that aren’t amazing value at mid round 1.

 

[tims4wins]

For sure. I wouldn’t trade out until I see how the top 14 shakes out, but it’s possible all of the QBs, all of the top WRs, Pitts, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and Surtain are gone. If that’s the case, you’re staring down a bunch of tier 2 players that aren’t amazing value at mid round 1.

This is obviously the nightmare scenario for the Pats. If the board shakes out this way, then who will actually want to trade up to 15? That's the problem. If it plays out like that my money is the Pats drafting whoever their top rated OL is at that point.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm guessing you know you can't do this in reality, so I'll answer it this way. Given all the improvements the Patriots have already made this offseason, what is the likelihood they would have a Top 15 draft pick next season?

They might not have this type of position (without trading) for awhile, so I would do everything I could to move up in this draft and, if that fails, see who's there at 15 before trading out.

Agreed. They need to add premium talent and if they can't do it at QB then they need to do it at another position of need. Whether it's WR, OL, front 7, or DB they need to come out of 15 with a really good player.

 

[sodenj5]

This is obviously the nightmare scenario for the Pats. If the board shakes out this way, then who will actually want to trade up to 15? That's the problem. If it plays out like that my money is the Pats drafting whoever their top rated OL is at that point.

Someone below Miami that wants Najee Harris? I honestly don’t know at that point. Maybe Jaelan Phillips.

 

[BigSoxFan]

For sure. I wouldn’t trade out until I see how the top 14 shakes out, but it’s possible all of the QBs, all of the top WRs, Pitts, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and Surtain are gone. If that’s the case, you’re staring down a bunch of tier 2 players that aren’t amazing value at mid round 1.

Yup. That is my fear. I want one slider, either for the Pats themselves or for a trade. Otherwise, I agree with Tims. I think they either do a minor trade back to pick up a little extra value or just pick the best right wing kicker.

 

[E5 Yaz]

For sure. I wouldn’t trade out until I see how the top 14 shakes out, but it’s possible all of the QBs, all of the top WRs, Pitts, Parsons, Sewell, Slater, and Surtain are gone. If that’s the case, you’re staring down a bunch of tier 2 players that aren’t amazing value at mid round 1.

Right, which is why I would try to move into the top 10

 

[sodenj5]

Right, which is why I would try to move into the top 10

Agreed. That is likely what I would try to do as well, assuming someone they like slips a little. Maybe Carolina or Denver wants to trade out if all of the QBs are off the board.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Agreed. That is likely what I would try to do as well, assuming someone they like slips a little. Maybe Carolina or Denver wants to trade out if all of the QBs are off the board.

They just aren't likely to be in position to trade into that range for a few years, so — returning to the OP — trading down would feel like a lost opportunity

 

[RedOctober3829]

Right, which is why I would try to move into the top 10

Would you trade up into the top 10 to draft Kyle Pitts? I don't care if he's considered a WR or a TE. That kid is a straight up baller and somebody that would instantly make the team better.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Would you trade up into the top 10 to draft Kyle Pitts? I don't care if he's considered a WR or a TE. That kid is a straight up baller and somebody that would instantly make the team better.

That's exactly the type of guy I'd trade up for ... although I suspect there are multiple teams in the 4-10 range who also will take him.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Would you trade up into the top 10 to draft Kyle Pitts? I don't care if he's considered a WR or a TE. That kid is a straight up baller and somebody that would instantly make the team better.

Pitts is my binky. Hands off. My 2 guys are Parsons and Pitts, 2 ridiculous physical talents.

 

[sodenj5]

Would you trade up into the top 10 to draft Kyle Pitts? I don't care if he's considered a WR or a TE. That kid is a straight up baller and somebody that would instantly make the team better.

I’m hoping that you have the chance to see Kyle Pitts quite frequently. Like twice a year for the next decade or so.

 

[RetractableRoof]

This is obviously the nightmare scenario for the Pats. If the board shakes out this way, then who will actually want to trade up to 15? That's the problem. If it plays out like that my money is the Pats drafting whoever their top rated OL is at that point.

Yes, the FA spending spree essentially provided enough known talent to allow BB his usual drafting freedom of getting value by zigging when the rest of the league zags. He's made a career out of having a limited pool of players in the "these guys could make our team, and we like them for our system" category. Working from a pool that tight ordinarily gives them freedom, and based on the FA moves/holes he plugged I wouldn't be surprised at ANY draft maneuvering. Move most all the chips for #2, or cast most all the chips into next year and beyond or duck and weave like he usually does - all are just as likely in my eyes.

One wrinkle this year is this: He just exploited his somewhat unique cap situation - splashing the pot all over the place. It likely means that next year he reverts to previous previous free agent form and seeks day 3 value or only spends on one player at a specific position of conceptual need. The permutations then are interesting: What does he think will happen to this years draft because he grabbed a lot of the toys? What does he think this years draft behavior will do to next years drafting need at positions he will need? How will his ability to trade in or out of next year be improved or tempered because of changes to the salary cap with the new TV deal, and hopefully covid in the rear view? This man is playing chess...

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Yeah. I think its significantly more likely the Patriots trade out for future picks than trade up to acquire someone. With so many teams stuck against the cap, the draft is the one place they know they can acquire decent players for their short term future at a reasonable cost. I expect a lot of teams look to trade up, and BB is going to see a lot of value in being a willing partner.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I’m hoping that you have the chance to see Kyle Pitts quite frequently. Like twice a year for the next decade or so.

This mini-drama is just the sort of thing @tims4wins was getting at about draft night. Say the Dolphins and Patriots both want pits; they'd have to trade with Atlanta to ensure getting him (as things seem to be headed now)

 

[RedOctober3829]

I’m hoping that you have the chance to see Kyle Pitts quite frequently. Like twice a year for the next decade or so.

Yeah hopefully the 2 home games a year I go to Gillette for that Smith/Henry/Pitts are the 3 headed matchup nightmare group.

 

[sodenj5]

This mini-drama is just the sort of thing @tims4wins was getting at about draft night. Say the Dolphins and Patriots both want pits; they'd have to trade with Atlanta to ensure getting him (as things seem to be headed now)

I’m Team Pitts, but is it really the best use of resources to trade away (assuming) multiple first round picks in order to draft a TE when you just paid top dollar for 2 of them?

I get that Pitts is more than a TE, and would probably be NE’s best receiver if he played there full time, but I guess I’m skeptical.

 

[tims4wins]

I’m Team Pitts, but is it really the best use of resources to trade away (assuming) multiple first round picks in order to draft a TE when you just paid top dollar for 2 of them?

I get that Pitts is more than a TE, and would probably be NE’s best receiver if he played there full time, but I guess I’m skeptical.

I agree, I won't be thrilled if the Pats trade up and draft him. It won't kill me, but if you're gonna trade up, it should be for QB, not for a position of strength already on the roster.

 

[Captaincoop]

Right, which is why I would try to move into the top 10

That's why I said in the other thread it won't be surprising if Belichick trades up even if there's no QB he wants available. This is a shot at premium talent on a rookie contract, and they filled most of their needs in FA so don't need 9 rookies in camp.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I agree, I won't be thrilled if the Pats trade up and draft him. It won't kill me, but if you're gonna trade up, it should be for QB, not for a position of strength already on the roster.

Depends on price. You wouldn't be cool with 15/46 for Pitts at, say, 7 or 8 if none of the QBs are there? That is roughly what the price would be. If you need to leapfrog Miami to get Pitts, which would entail using the 2022 1st, then I agree the price is too costly.

 

[tims4wins]

Depends on price. You wouldn't be cool with 15/46 for Pitts at, say, 7 or 8 if none of the QBs are there? That is roughly what the price would be. If you need to leapfrog Miami to get Pitts, which would entail using the 2022 1st, then I agree the price is too costly.

I guess I would be neutral about it? It kind of depends on what you think happens come 15. If you told me that Surtain or Horn would be there, I think I'd rather use 15 on one of those guys and then try to move up from 46 (using the 3rd-4th round picks) to try to grab a WR. But if we are talking about the "nightmare scenario" of all 5 QBs gone, the 3 top WRs gone, the 3 top CBs gone, plus Pitts, Parsons, and Sewell... then yeah I'd probably be ok with the trade. But it also depends on trade down possibilities. Again, it wouldn't kill me if they do it. But if Lance or Fields is there at 7 and they trade up to draft Pitts... that will be disappointing, at least to me.

 

[E5 Yaz]

... if you're gonna trade up, it should be for QB, not for a position of strength already on the roster.

Chase, Waddle or Smith?

 

[Super Nomario]

I guess I would be neutral about it? It kind of depends on what you think happens come 15. If you told me that Surtain or Horn would be there, I think I'd rather use 15 on one of those guys and then try to move up from 46 (using the 3rd-4th round picks) to try to grab a WR. But if we are talking about the "nightmare scenario" of all 5 QBs gone, the 3 top WRs gone, the 3 top CBs gone, plus Pitts, Parsons, and Sewell... then yeah I'd probably be ok with the trade. But it also depends on trade down possibilities. Again, it wouldn't kill me if they do it. But if Lance or Fields is there at 7 and they trade up to draft Pitts... that will be disappointing, at least to me.

I'd go Slater or Darrisaw then. Both OTs are FA after 2022. It's a major need ... which is why I'm not keen on trading 15 and 46 for a non-QB, as much as I love Pitts. They really gotta walk out of day two with a OT and a CB.

 

[tims4wins]

Chase, Waddle or Smith?

Personally I'd prefer they trade down and draft a WR like Toney, Bateman, or one of the Moores rather than give up more capital for one of those guys, but ultimately in BB I trust and I'd eventually get fired up about it.

 

[tims4wins]

I'd go Slater or Darrisaw then. Both OTs are FA after 2022. It's a major need ... which is why I'm not keen on trading 15 and 46 for a non-QB, as much as I love Pitts. They really gotta walk out of day two with a OT and a CB.

Completely agree, I fully expect a OT and CB to be taken by the end of day 2.

Edit: as I wrote upthread, if they don't trade up for a QB my money is definitely on them taking a OT in the first, with the exception being if one of the elite CBs is available.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I guess I would be neutral about it? It kind of depends on what you think happens come 15. If you told me that Surtain or Horn would be there, I think I'd rather use 15 on one of those guys and then try to move up from 46 (using the 3rd-4th round picks) to try to grab a WR. But if we are talking about the "nightmare scenario" of all 5 QBs gone, the 3 top WRs gone, the 3 top CBs gone, plus Pitts, Parsons, and Sewell... then yeah I'd probably be ok with the trade. But it also depends on trade down possibilities. Again, it wouldn't kill me if they do it. But if Lance or Fields is there at 7 and they trade up to draft Pitts... that will be disappointing, at least to me.

Ok, I think we are pretty much aligned. I agree that if you can get your QB for 15/46, you have to jump at it. But if that isn't possible, I'd be curious about other opportunities. Forgot to add that Surtain is another guy I'd trade up for. Seems like you'll need to jump Dallas at #10 to do so.

 

[tims4wins]

Ok, I think we are pretty much aligned. I agree that if you can get your QB for 15/46, you have to jump at it. But if that isn't possible, I'd be curious about other opportunities. Forgot to add that Surtain is another guy I'd trade up for. Seems like you'll need to jump Dallas at #10 to do so.

What do we think the realistic price is to move from 15 to 7? Per the Rich Hill chart, 15 + 46 = 433, 7 = 426, so that's pretty even. But what I wonder is if the Pats could give up their 2022 first rounder and somehow get 72 from Detroit. I wonder if they would accept something like 15 + 2022 first + 96 or 120 for 7 + 72.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think I'd put the likelihood of each thing in this order:
1. Pats trade up for QB
2. Pats stay put at 15 and take BPA
3. Pats trade down (likely for future draft considerations)
4. Pats trade up for anything other than a QB

 

[BigSoxFan]

What do we think the realistic price is to move from 15 to 7? Per the Rich Hill chart, 15 + 46 = 433, 7 = 426, so that's pretty even. But what I wonder is if the Pats could give up their 2022 first rounder and somehow get 72 from Detroit. I wonder if they would accept something like 15 + 2022 first + 96 or 120 for 7 + 72.

Seems in the ballpark. I do agree that Lions feel like a potential trade partner if a QB slides. I think they’re going to make out quite well if they opt to acquire more assets. And the price for us to move up there will hurt a bit but is manageable. I can’t see us going all the way to #4.

 

[tims4wins]

Seems in the ballpark. I do agree that Lions feel like a potential trade partner if a QB slides. I think they’re going to make out quite well if they opt to acquire more assets. And the price for us to move up there will hurt a bit but is manageable. I can’t see us going all the way to #4.

Completely agree. I'm definitely team "see how the draft plays out, do not trade up to #4 or 5, pounce at 7 if the opportunity and player is available"

 

[BigSoxFan]

Completely agree. I'm definitely team "see how the draft plays out, do not trade up to #4 or 5, pounce at 7 if the opportunity and player is available"

Yup. And if Mac really goes #3, then things will REALLY get interesting. Feels like the Falcons’ decision at #4 will impact things a ton. If they go QB, that kills teams like the Pats and Broncos. If they go Pitts or Sewell, then the Dolphins and Lions will be taking a TON of calls (assuming Cincy is their typical stubborn self).

 

[tims4wins]

Yup. And if Mac really goes #3, then things will REALLY get interesting. Feels like the Falcons’ decision at #4 will impact things a ton. If they go QB, that kills teams like the Pats and Broncos. If they go Pitts or Sewell, then the Dolphins and Lions will be taking a TON of calls (assuming Cincy is their typical stubborn self).

Which is why, even from the lens of non-Pats fans, the first round (or at least the first 7-10 picks) is one of the most interesting in recent history. I stopped watching every minute of the draft a few years ago, especially with the Pats picking close to midnight most years (or trading out entirely). But this is must watch theatre IMO.

 

[Saints Rest]

I've linked to this site before noting how their aggregating of all the mocks shows the most common Pat pick at 15 to be Pitts (Jones is second most common).

But here I'm linking to their aggregated big board.

Here's their top 15. (Jones falls just outside at 17). Again, this is not their top 15, but their aggregation of a shit-ton of mocks.

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Fields
5. Chase
6. Pitts
7. Lance
8. Smith
9. Surtain
10. Waddle
11. Slater
12. Parsons
13. Farley
14. Darrisaw
15. Horn

Assuming Jones goes in the top 15 somewhere, that means at least two of these 15 will be available. I've also seen both Paye (listed at 16) and Vera-Tucker (listed at 18) go above 15 in a few reputable mocks. I don't think I've seen anyone listed beyond that in any mock at 15 or higher. So perhaps it is safe to say there are 18 players in the upper tier. But it seems like the bottom 6 of those seem to be pretty clearly in a tier below the top 12, with the exception of Jones, which is likely driven by being a QB.

So would people be happy with anyone in that 13-18 tier?

 

[BigSoxFan]

I've linked to this site before noting how their aggregating of all the mocks shows the most common Pat pick at 15 to be Pitts (Jones is second most common).

But here I'm linking to their aggregated big board.

Here's their top 15. (Jones falls just outside at 17). Again, this is not their top 15, but their aggregation of a shit-ton of mocks.

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Fields
5. Chase
6. Pitts
7. Lance
8. Smith
9. Surtain
10. Waddle
11. Slater
12. Parsons
13. Farley
14. Darrisaw
15. Horn

Assuming Jones goes in the top 15 somewhere, that means at least two of these 15 will be available. I've also seen both Paye (listed at 16) and Vera-Tucker (listed at 18) go above 15 in a few reputable mocks. I don't think I've seen anyone listed beyond that in any mock at 15 or higher. So perhaps it is safe to say there are 18 players in the upper tier. But it seems like the bottom 6 of those seem to be pretty clearly in a tier below the top 12, with the exception of Jones, which is likely driven by being a QB.

So would people be happy with anyone in that 13-18 tier?

I would take any of those guys at #15. It sucks that the Pats didn't lose a couple more games to sit comfortably at #8 but even at #15, they're in good shape. The Pats are actually pretty lucky that in a year where they need to line up a long-term option at OT and CB, there are a few quality guys within reach at #15, like Slater, Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, Horn, Farley, etc. They will be adding a quality long-term piece should they stay put and this guy wouldn't be needed to produce right away given the current depth of the team. Perfect situation.

 

[tims4wins]

I would take any of those guys at #15. It sucks that the Pats didn't lose a couple more games to sit comfortably at #8 but even at #15, they're in good shape. The Pats are actually pretty lucky that in a year where they need to line up a long-term option at OT and CB, there are a few quality guys within reach at #15, like Slater, Darrisaw, Vera-Tucker, Horn, Farley, etc. They will be adding a quality long-term piece should they stay put and this guy wouldn't be needed to produce right away given the current depth of the team. Perfect situation.

Very similar to when they drafted Solder.

 

[E5 Yaz]

View: https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1377283167820861441

 

[BigSoxFan]

View: https://twitter.com/FieldYates/status/1377283167820861441

Goodbye, my love...

 

[Phil Plantier]

I'm not a fan of Pitts. I know past returns aren't a guarantee of future performance, but the last TE to deserve their first round draft position was Greg Olsen in 2007, and he only blossomed away from the Bears. Since then, first round TEs are:

Dustin Keller (pick 30)
Brandon Pettigrew (20)
Jermaine Gresham (21)
Tyler Eifert (21)
Eric Ebron (10)
O.J. Howard (19)
Evan Engram (23)
David Njoku (29)
Hayden Hurst (25)
T.J. Hockinson (8)
Noah Fant (20)

Yuck.

 

[tims4wins]

I'm not a fan of Pitts. I know past returns aren't a guarantee of future performance, but the last TE to deserve their first round draft position was Greg Olsen in 2007, and he only blossomed away from the Bears. Since then, first round TEs are:

Dustin Keller (pick 30)
Brandon Pettigrew (20)
Jermaine Gresham (21)
Tyler Eifert (21)
Eric Ebron (10)
O.J. Howard (19)
Evan Engram (23)
David Njoku (29)
Hayden Hurst (25)
T.J. Hockinson (8)
Noah Fant (20)

Yuck.

Hockensen is off to a decent start, and he's the only guy remotely hyped to the level Pitts is. He had 67 catches for over 700 yards and 6 TDs in year 2. It's kind of like the argument against Fields that no Ohio State QB has ever been a good pick - no OSU QB has been taken in the top 10 either.

 

[Super Nomario]

I've linked to this site before noting how their aggregating of all the mocks shows the most common Pat pick at 15 to be Pitts (Jones is second most common).

But here I'm linking to their aggregated big board.

Here's their top 15. (Jones falls just outside at 17). Again, this is not their top 15, but their aggregation of a shit-ton of mocks.

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Sewell
4. Fields
5. Chase
6. Pitts
7. Lance
8. Smith
9. Surtain
10. Waddle
11. Slater
12. Parsons
13. Farley
14. Darrisaw
15. Horn

Assuming Jones goes in the top 15 somewhere, that means at least two of these 15 will be available. I've also seen both Paye (listed at 16) and Vera-Tucker (listed at 18) go above 15 in a few reputable mocks. I don't think I've seen anyone listed beyond that in any mock at 15 or higher. So perhaps it is safe to say there are 18 players in the upper tier. But it seems like the bottom 6 of those seem to be pretty clearly in a tier below the top 12, with the exception of Jones, which is likely driven by being a QB.

So would people be happy with anyone in that 13-18 tier?

I think Farley is going to slip because of his recent back surgery (his second). Parsons may slip because of off-field concerns. Azeez Ojulari might be another option, or Zaven Collins. The Patriots are basically right about at the point the talent drops off, and they might not like some of these guys, either.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Pitts is a better receiver than any single tight end coming out the last 20 years and that is not hyperbole.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Pitts is a better receiver than any single tight end coming out the last 20 years and that is not hyperbole.

Yeah. He’s also more physically dominant than basically everyone. Dude’s a unicorn.

 

[tims4wins]

Pitts running that fast is good news for the Pats IMO - it seals his fate as a top-7 pick and therefore increases the chances of a QB falling into the range where the Pats can trade.