my guess for the week 18 sch

Helmet Head

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So the options here after this weeks games (assuming they are all played) is canceling the Buffalo / Cincy game one way or another or pushing back the start of the playoffs so they can play the game. Don’t really see any other options. I guess it will really come down to the what those specific teams really want to do and they will make the decision accordingly. Only other team being effected by the outcome of that game could potentially be KC.
 

BigJimEd

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I don't see how an extra playoff game(s) helps. This game has very little, if any, affect on who makes the playoffs. It is more about the top seeds and division winner.
 

BigJimEd

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So the options here after this weeks games (assuming they are all played) is canceling the Buffalo / Cincy game one way or another or pushing back the start of the playoffs so they can play the game. Don’t really see any other options. I guess it will really come down to the what those specific teams really want to do and they will make the decision accordingly. Only other team being effected by the outcome of that game could potentially be KC.
I think those really are the only options. However, Baltimore could potentially be affected as well as they still have a chance to win division.
 

axx

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I don't see how an extra playoff game(s) helps. This game has very little, if any, affect on who makes the playoffs. It is more about the top seeds and division winner.
If Goodell were to declare it a tie/no contest, then Buffalo would very likely rest their starters against the Patriots unless Vegas pulls a miracle.
 

Skiponzo

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I think the way it will end up playing out is the league plays this weekend as normally scheduled. The Bills/Bengals then play a Thursday night game on the 12th. All playoffs get pushed back one week (eliminating the week off between AFC/NFC CGs and SuperBowl) so you end up with all playoff teams getting a week bye, the #2 seed getting 10 days and the #1 getting just over 2 weeks between games.
 

BigJimEd

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If Goodell were to declare it a tie/no contest, then Buffalo would very likely rest their starters against the Patriots unless Vegas pulls a miracle.
Yes and that would have ripple affects as well.
I was thinking more the poster was referring to cancelling the game after this weekend's games.
 

sodenj5

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If Goodell were to declare it a tie/no contest, then Buffalo would very likely rest their starters against the Patriots unless Vegas pulls a miracle.
Which is why they likely won’t make a decision on that game until after the Week 18 games.

Also, even if they determined it a tie, Buffalo doesn’t have the 2 seed locked up and could potentially fall to 3 depending on what happens with Cincy.
 

steveluck7

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Would it be feasible at all to basically cancel this game altogether and only have the week 18 games involving the Bills and Bengals matter to them?
Basically, all teams are judged by 16 games.
Any ties would be decided by established tiebreakers.
So, in this instance. Week 18 is meaningless to New England but Buffalo can move to 13-3 and take the 1 seed with a win.
It may not make sense for a variety of reasons that I’m not considering right now but it just came into my head
 
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axx

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Ironically enough I think if both Buffalo and Cincy lose in Week 18 with the tie between them, they would (most likely?) play their Week 18 opponent again. Although that might also depend on what happens with the Chargers.

Kind of assume the Bengals would also rest too.
 

E5 Yaz

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Ironically enough I think if both Buffalo and Cincy lose in Week 18 with the tie between them, they would (most likely?) play their Week 18 opponent again. Although that might also depend on what happens with the Chargers.

Kind of assume the Bengals would also rest too.
Jaguars/Titans winner would play the highest ranked WC, which would likely be the Bengals in your scenario
 

Mystic Merlin

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Jaguars/Titans winner would play the highest ranked WC, which would likely be the Bengals in your scenario
Cincy still wins the division as the 3 seed in that scenario. Cincy would be 11-5-1 and Baltimore would be 11-6.

They’d host Baltimore if LAC beats the Broncos, and they’d host LAC if LAC loses to the Broncos.
 

E5 Yaz

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Cincy still wins the division as the 3 seed in that scenario. Cincy would be 11-5-1 and Baltimore would be 11-6.

They’d host Baltimore if LAC beats the Broncos, and they’d host LAC if LAC loses to the Broncos.
Thanks
 

NoXInNixon

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Could they audible into having the Patriots play the Ravens this week while the Bills and Bengals get a bye week? That gives the teams that need a week off a week off, and minimizes disruption to determining who the 7th seed is.
 

axx

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Could they audible into having the Patriots play the Ravens this week while the Bills and Bengals get a bye week? That gives the teams that need a week off a week off, and minimizes disruption to determining who the 7th seed is.
Baltimore is already in the playoffs. The Patriots are not. But Baltimore could still win the division if Bills/Bengals gets played and Buffalo wins.
 

NoXInNixon

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Baltimore is already in the playoffs. The Patriots are not. But Baltimore could still win the division if Bills/Bengals gets played and Buffalo wins.
Here's my full proposal:

Bills and Bengals get a week 18 bye. Their regular seasons are over, and they finish with records of 12-3 and 11-4. If the Chiefs win this week, they're the #1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, the Bills are the #1 seed. The Bengals are the #3 seed no matter what happens. Sure, this screws Baltimore out of a chance at winning the division, but no solution is perfect.

The Patriots play the Ravens week 18 at a neutral site. The ramifications of that game are the same for the Patriots as they would be if the Pats played the Bills. They make the playoffs with a win, or with wins by the Jets, Browns and Jags. Baltimore has something to play for because the #5 seed is still possibly on the line, and with either the Jag or Titans being the #4 seed, the #5 seed is a nice place to be.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Here's my full proposal:

Bills and Bengals get a week 18 bye. Their regular seasons are over, and they finish with records of 12-3 and 11-4. If the Chiefs win this week, they're the #1 seed. If the Chiefs lose, the Bills are the #1 seed. The Bengals are the #3 seed no matter what happens. Sure, this screws Baltimore out of a chance at winning the division, but no solution is perfect.

The Patriots play the Ravens week 18 at a neutral site. The ramifications of that game are the same for the Patriots as they would be if the Pats played the Bills. They make the playoffs with a win, or with wins by the Jets, Browns and Jags. Baltimore has something to play for because the #5 seed is still possibly on the line, and with either the Jag or Titans being the #4 seed, the #5 seed is a nice place to be.
Asking two teams to play completely different opponents 4-5 days from game day at a different site is a non-starter logistically and, arguably, competitively.
 

Traitor11

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If the AFC playoff scenarios at cbs sports are correct…

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2023-nfl-playoffs-week-18-clinching-scenarios-for-afc-and-nfc-contenders/amp/

I feel would it make most since to have the Bills receive a tie for last two games with a play in game between Dolphins and Patriots for the final playoff spot.

Cin - Tie for last week for the title
Jets - Tie versus Bills for last week (Already eliminated and Jets/Fins, would be the real deciding factor)

Jaguars need a lot of help to make it if they lose to Titans. (That game becomes even bigger for those Dan bases). Steelers need a lot of help, they are the ones would have the largest gripe.. maybe. KC just has to win, if they lose Bills get number one.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Sure, this screws Baltimore out of a chance at winning the division, but no solution is perfect.
It also screws the handful of other teams chasing the #7 seed who'd prefer to see the Pats play Buffalo than a Baltimore team that has nothing little to play for.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The easiest solution is just treat the game as a no-contest and move on. Yeah, it kinda screws the Bills and Ravens and benefits the Chiefs and Bengals, but so be it - this is a (fortunately) very unique situation and isn’t any more lucky/unlucky for those teams than a weird bounce on a fumble deciding a game, etc.
 

Cellar-Door

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I would be legitimately shocked if they do anything other than:
1. Play all the games scheduled.
2. Play all games except BUF/CIN.

Even 2 is an absolute mess for the league, it's partners, etc. they may decide to do it, but they'll hold out as long as possible because the ripple effects are huge particularly for some of their biggest partners.
 

Shelterdog

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I assume the real negotiations here are among owners negotiated with Goodell about whether to slot cincy-bills into week 19 and push back the playoffs or just have a coin flip, with the league kind of pushing for a coin flip (who wants to have a cincy-bills game with relatively little on the line as the NFL's only game for a week?) but other teams having different reactions based on how it affects them for the playoffs. Like if the Pats are in the playoffs they might say Cincy and the Bills should definitely play another week (while the pats get a bye).
 

axx

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The easiest solution is just treat the game as a no-contest and move on. Yeah, it kinda screws the Bills and Ravens and benefits the Chiefs and Bengals, but so be it - this is a (fortunately) very unique situation and isn’t any more lucky/unlucky for those teams than a weird bounce on a fumble deciding a game, etc.
Don't forget it also screws over Miami and Pittsburgh because the Patriots go from a heavy underdog to a heavy favorite in making the playoffs.

League might want to consider moving NE/BUF to Saturday alongside KC/V for fairness reasons.
 

Cellar-Door

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I assume the real negotiations here are among owners negotiated with Goodell about whether to slot cincy-bills into week 19 and push back the playoffs or just have a coin flip, with the league kind of pushing for a coin flip (who wants to have a cincy-bills game with relatively little on the line as the NFL's only game for a week?) but other teams having different reactions based on how it affects them for the playoffs. Like if the Pats are in the playoffs they might say Cincy and the Bills should definitely play another week (while the pats get a bye).
I also assume a big negotiation is talking with the Gaming and Fantasy partners who are going to have to shell out millions in refunds about how different scenarios impact them. The league isn't going to just drop it on them without some discussion, it's two of their most profitable partners who they have been courting heavily in recent years.
 

DJnVa

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The easiest solution is just treat the game as a no-contest and move on. Yeah, it kinda screws the Bills and Ravens and benefits the Chiefs and Bengals, but so be it - this is a (fortunately) very unique situation and isn’t any more lucky/unlucky for those teams than a weird bounce on a fumble deciding a game, etc.
Yeah, if there was a decision that didn't screw teams at all there wouldn't even be a discussion. Call it a no contest and move on.
 

Dogman

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I mentioned in the schedule reconstruction thread but award Buff/Cincy a tie. Play week 18 as scheduled. KC gets the #1 with Buffalo and Cincy at 2 and 3. If Buff or Cincy play KC in the AFCCG, the game is played at a neutral site with KC as the "home" team with usual home gate receipts awarded.
 

cshea

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I assume the real negotiations here are among owners negotiated with Goodell about whether to slot cincy-bills into week 19 and push back the playoffs or just have a coin flip, with the league kind of pushing for a coin flip (who wants to have a cincy-bills game with relatively little on the line as the NFL's only game for a week?) but other teams having different reactions based on how it affects them for the playoffs. Like if the Pats are in the playoffs they might say Cincy and the Bills should definitely play another week (while the pats get a bye).
Someone is going to end up pissed off. There's too many teams impacted to please everyone. If they do a stand alone week 19 game than the whole AFC bracket gets a bye other than Buffalo or Cincy (unless 1 of them gets the bye). If they call it a tie, no contest, or do a coin flip that could change a lot of week 18 plans. If the Bills end up cedeing the #1 seed through this then the Dolphins, Steelers and Jags end up mad because the Bills may then sit their starters week 18 which benefits the Pats. Plus the Ravens lose out on trying to win the AFC South.
 

Cellar-Door

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Someone is going to end up pissed off. There's too many teams impacted to please everyone. If they do a stand alone week 19 game than the whole AFC bracket gets a bye other than Buffalo or Cincy (unless 1 of them gets the bye). If they call it a tie, no contest, or do a coin flip that could change a lot of week 18 plans. If the Bills end up cedeing the #1 seed through this then the Dolphins, Steelers and Jags end up mad because the Bills may then sit their starters week 18 which benefits the Pats. Plus the Ravens lose out on trying to win the AFC South.
I would guess that at the least they will wait until week 18 is over to make the decision, that way they avoid some of those issues (but not all).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I mentioned in the schedule reconstruction thread but award Buff/Cincy a tie. Play week 18 as scheduled. KC gets the #1 with Buffalo and Cincy at 2 and 3. If Buff or Cincy play KC in the AFCCG, the game is played at a neutral site with KC as the "home" team with usual home gate receipts awarded.
i suspect the league will do whatever they can to avoid not playing a game. There’s just too much lost revenue that would come from that.
 
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mcpickl

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I mentioned in the schedule reconstruction thread but award Buff/Cincy a tie. Play week 18 as scheduled. KC gets the #1 with Buffalo and Cincy at 2 and 3. If Buff or Cincy play KC in the AFCCG, the game is played at a neutral site with KC as the "home" team with usual home gate receipts awarded.
That's pretty brutal for Buffalo.

They had the #1 seed and a bye in their hands, and they lose any shot at it because one of their players almost died on the field?

That's a no go. As is playing a conference championship game at a neutral site.
 

lexrageorge

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That's pretty brutal for Buffalo.

They had the #1 seed and a bye in their hands, and they lose any shot at it because one of their players almost died on the field?

That's a no go. As is playing a conference championship game at a neutral site.
Especially when there is an option where the NFL can fairly painlessly move the two Conference Championship games into the existing bye week prior to the Super Bowl.

Seems like the most sense is to play the Week 18 schedule this weekend and then see what's at stake in the AFC after those games.
 

cshea

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That seems like the most likely option, but I think BUF and CIN would want some clarity on the plan shorty so they can plan accordingly. Do they go all out knowing their fate could be determined by a coin flip/no contest decision? Do they have to also prepare to play each other on a shortened week?
 

Awesome Fossum

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That's pretty brutal for Buffalo.

They had the #1 seed and a bye in their hands, and they lose any shot at it because one of their players almost died on the field?

That's a no go. As is playing a conference championship game at a neutral site.
OK, but now to get that bye, they might effectively have to play an extra road game against the Bengals while everyone else rests. And they're already down 7-3. And the Bengals have the ball. And maybe they would have to play with 52 men? Is that less brutal? Would the Bills even want that?
 

luckiestman

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If instead of a tie, what happens if both teams are granted a week 17 win but if Buf/KC remain tied for one seed after week 18, you flip a coin for the bye ?
 

Harry Hooper

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Since the Bengals were leading 7-3, if they are awarded a win and the Bills are awarded a tie instead of a loss, where would that put things for this weekend?
 

AB in DC

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That seems like the most likely option, but I think BUF and CIN would want some clarity on the plan shorty so they can plan accordingly. Do they go all out knowing their fate could be determined by a coin flip/no contest decision?
In this case I think the ambiguity works in everyone's favor -- all teams will play as if the win is needed, even if it turns out later that it doesn't.
 

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Mystic Merlin

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If instead of a tie, what happens if both teams are granted a week 17 win but if Buf/KC remain tied for one seed after week 18, you flip a coin for the bye ?
If there is a three-way tie among BUF, KC, and CIN at 13-4 (ie, CIN beats Baltimore, BUF loses to NE, and KC loses to LV), then I guess you could do a ‘Friday Night Lights’ style coin flip where three teams flip a coin and the first team to have the outlier heads or tails would win the bye. They’d be making all of this up as they go, of course.


Since the Bengals were leading 7-3, if they are awarded a win and the Bills are awarded a tie instead of a loss, where would that put things for this weekend?

Entering Week 18, your scenario would put KC in the driver’s seat for HFA with a 13-3 record, with BUF (12-3-1) in second and CIN (12-4) in third. CIN would own the tiebreakers with both BUF and KC, and BUF would own the tiebreaker with KC. This means that:
- CIN would get HFA if CIN wins, KC loses, and BUF loses or ties.
- BUF would get HFA if BUF wins and KC loses or ties, or if BUF ties, KC loses, and CIN loses or ties.
- KC would get HFA if KC wins, or if KC ties and BUF loses or ties.
 

tims4wins

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You simply can’t award a result without skewing the playoffs. It’s either coin clip or finish the game. Otherwise it is the NFL deciding the seeding which is problematic for so many reasons.
 

tims4wins

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Is declaring a no contest too problematic?
Means the Bills can’t earn the one seed if KC wins despite beating KC this year just because they played one fewer game. It’s the NFL choosing the seeding.

Edit: it also penalizes the Bengals because it denies them a shot at the 2 seed
 
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Ed Hillel

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Means the Bills can’t earn the one seed if KC wins despite beating KC this year just because they played one fewer game. It’s the NFL choosing the seeding.

Edit: it also penalizes the Bengals because it denies them a shot at the 2 seed
It also would reward the Patriots by giving the Bills potentially nothing to play for in Week 18. League office ain't gonna let that happen.
 

BaseballJones

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Let's be honest: there is absolutely NO good way out of this. There may be less worse options, but every single possible path has enormous problems for someone. So the NFL is going to have to decide (hopefully not unilaterally) who they feel will be hurt the least, and which teams deserve to be hurt the least. Or something like that.

Or I could be cynical and say the NFL will, in the end, do what's best for the NFL - as in, $$$$$. But I'm trying not to be cynical here and believe that even people like Goodell have a shred of humanity here.
 

8slim

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Means the Bills can’t earn the one seed if KC wins despite beating KC this year just because they played one fewer game. It’s the NFL choosing the seeding.

Edit: it also penalizes the Bengals because it denies them a shot at the 2 seed
Got it. Great points.
 

Harry Hooper

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Entering Week 18, your scenario would put KC in the driver’s seat for HFA with a 13-3 record, with BUF (12-3-1) in second and CIN (12-4) in third. CIN would own the tiebreakers with both BUF and KC, and BUF would own the tiebreaker with KC. This means that:
- CIN would get HFA if CIN wins, KC loses, and BUF loses or ties.
- BUF would get HFA if BUF wins and KC loses or ties, or if BUF ties, KC loses, and CIN loses or ties.
- KC would get HFA if KC wins, or if KC ties and BUF loses or ties.
Thanks for teasing that out. Maybe as fair a result as can be dragged out of these circumstances with all 3 playing to win their last game as part of striving for the #1 seed, and no coin flips involved?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Let's be honest: there is absolutely NO good way out of this. There may be less worse options, but every single possible path has enormous problems for someone. So the NFL is going to have to decide (hopefully not unilaterally) who they feel will be hurt the least, and which teams deserve to be hurt the least. Or something like that.

Or I could be cynical and say the NFL will, in the end, do what's best for the NFL - as in, $$$$$. But I'm trying not to be cynical here and believe that even people like Goodell have a shred of humanity here.
This. Except the part about Goodell and humanity. Those two words should never be in sentence together except when its "___ is what happens when you lose your___".
 

j-man

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the bengals wouild had won last night they were carveing buffalo def up the fair thing to do is

give ciny the win buff a tie then ask buff if they want to play sunday/monday afterroon around 2 pm est if not ne gets the 7 seed buff gets the 3 then filp the tenn/jax bait/ciny games
 

E5 Yaz

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It also would reward the Patriots by giving the Bills potentially nothing to play for in Week 18.
I know what you're getting at, but the next time the Bills take the field they will be playing for their brother-in-arms ... regardless of the playoff implications. I expect them to be highly motivated