As I said a day or two ago, the Mavs hype really felt like a financial bubble, where everyone was FOMO'ing in to buy Dallas stock at any price, even as it was being bid up to insane narrative levels.
Now there will be an overcorrection the other way, where everyone is swinging towards Boston, but Dallas will probably find some stuff to improve. The "Play Harder and Better" adjustment is very much in play for game 2, as is the "have roleplayers make a few more 3s" adjustment.
It’s not difficult to find ways for Dallas to win.
1. Kyrie goes 11-19 instead of 6-19. Assume a couple of those are threes and that’s 12 more points for Dallas. I know Boston plays good defense but McConnell and Nembhard both shot over .500 for the series vs Boston. I assume Kyrie can do the same, at least for a couple of games.
2. Dallas does better than 7-27 from three. Again, some of that was Boston’s defense but we all saw numerous times where Dallas got wide open looks and missed. Dallas shot 37% from three as a team this year so it wouldn’t be crazy to see them go 12-30 from three. Assume two of those are afrorementioned Kyrie threes and that still adds three more, so tack on another nine points.
Just those two things alone, changing nothing else, is 21 more points for Dallas. And neither one is in any way a stretch. Boston played well in game one but Dallas also played poorly. None of this is taking into account like what happens if Porzingis goes 5-13 instead of 8-13, reducing Boston’s points by six, or if Hauser reverts to ECF shooting form instead of hitting 3 of 4 from three.
I’m not suggesting Dallas will or should win, but it’s not remotely difficult for me to see areas where Dallas puts up more points and Boston scores fewer leading to a Dallas win.
It’s also not hard for me to see a world where Tatum goes 11-20 instead of 6-16, and Pritchard goes 3-7 instead of 0-7, and Boston goes 16-22 from the line instead of 13-19, and they win by 20+.
But not many adjustments need to be made for shooting stats to tilt enough to change the outcome of a game in this series.