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wade boggs chicken dinner

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That's basically what I was trying to say. If the Mavs best runs in games are of the 12 and 8 point varieties, that won't be enough, because the Celtics regularly have runs where they will outscore you by 20+.

The Mavs had 14 minutes of clock time with 14 points. I was wrong above, the 44-14 run happened over 14 minutes, not 10.
DAL's runs will be limited because unless Kidd knows something about his personnel that no one else on earth does - or he can coax multiple superhuman games out of Kyrie and/or Luka , DAL is going to have problems on offense. When you can't score regularly, you're not going on runs. DAL's 2Q/3Q run was fueled by Luka getting hot but he doesn't seem to have enough energy to sustain it for an entire game. Hopefully that's true because I really don't want to see Luka go for 60.
 

lars10

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DAL's runs will be limited because unless Kidd knows something about his personnel that no one else on earth does - or he can coax multiple superhuman games out of Kyrie and/or Luka , DAL is going to have problems on offense. When you can't score regularly, you're not going on runs. DAL's 2Q/3Q run was fueled by Luka getting hot but he doesn't seem to have enough energy to sustain it for an entire game. Hopefully that's true because I really don't want to see Luka go for 60.
In the post game interviews.. DW, JH and JB (as I recall) all mentioned that Luka scored 30 and they thought that was too many.. I get the sense that they want to defend him even more forcefully in game 2.
 

riboflav

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In the post game interviews.. DW, JH and JB (as I recall) all mentioned that Luka scored 30 and they thought that was too many.. I get the sense that they want to defend him even more forcefully in game 2.
Probably, or it's subterfuge.
 

Reverend

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Or it’s that you’re expected to say at least one positive thing about the other team and they couldn’t come up with anythng else.
We really respected his ability to stay in the game.
 

BaseballJones

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As I said a day or two ago, the Mavs hype really felt like a financial bubble, where everyone was FOMO'ing in to buy Dallas stock at any price, even as it was being bid up to insane narrative levels.

Now there will be an overcorrection the other way, where everyone is swinging towards Boston, but Dallas will probably find some stuff to improve. The "Play Harder and Better" adjustment is very much in play for game 2, as is the "have roleplayers make a few more 3s" adjustment.
It’s not difficult to find ways for Dallas to win.

1. Kyrie goes 11-19 instead of 6-19. Assume a couple of those are threes and that’s 12 more points for Dallas. I know Boston plays good defense but McConnell and Nembhard both shot over .500 for the series vs Boston. I assume Kyrie can do the same, at least for a couple of games.

2. Dallas does better than 7-27 from three. Again, some of that was Boston’s defense but we all saw numerous times where Dallas got wide open looks and missed. Dallas shot 37% from three as a team this year so it wouldn’t be crazy to see them go 12-30 from three. Assume two of those are afrorementioned Kyrie threes and that still adds three more, so tack on another nine points.

Just those two things alone, changing nothing else, is 21 more points for Dallas. And neither one is in any way a stretch. Boston played well in game one but Dallas also played poorly. None of this is taking into account like what happens if Porzingis goes 5-13 instead of 8-13, reducing Boston’s points by six, or if Hauser reverts to ECF shooting form instead of hitting 3 of 4 from three.

I’m not suggesting Dallas will or should win, but it’s not remotely difficult for me to see areas where Dallas puts up more points and Boston scores fewer leading to a Dallas win.

It’s also not hard for me to see a world where Tatum goes 11-20 instead of 6-16, and Pritchard goes 3-7 instead of 0-7, and Boston goes 16-22 from the line instead of 13-19, and they win by 20+.

But not many adjustments need to be made for shooting stats to tilt enough to change the outcome of a game in this series.
 

benhogan

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It’s not difficult to find ways for Dallas to win.

But not many adjustments need to be made for shooting stats to tilt enough to change the outcome of a game in this series.
You can "Make or Miss" your way to wins after every loss. Just watch a Doc Rivers post-game presser.

The crux of the problem is the Celtics were getting a good look every time they worked for a shot. Timpf pointed this out, with film evidence. During the Mavs run the C's stopped hunting Luka or working for paint touches/kick-out offense.

When FOCUSED, the Celtics' offense is attacking Luka, which creates several positive outcomes:
1. Tatum/ball handler draw help
2. MAVs in rotation
3. Leads to Open 3s or open driving lanes
4. A tired Luka by Q4

When FOCUSED, the Celtic defense has Brown/Jrue guarding Luka/Kyrie & switching with single coverage.
With no Help on the Way the MAVs offense will be Knotted up and lead to:
1. Corner3 being guarded
2. Clogged lane - no lobs
3. Above-the-break 3s from PJ & midrange jumpers from the rest
4. Luka/Kyrie getting their POINTZ!
5. A tired Luka by Q4

Plus CJM is no longer afraid to use TOs when they PLAY UNFOCUSED

Frankly, I was surprised how easily Boston got what they wanted even with Tatum nervous/TO prone throughout.

The Celtics are an awful matchup for Dallas. If I'm the MAVs, that game told me there are bigger issues than SHOOTING VARIANCE. Curious to see how Kidd adjusts.
 

BaseballJones

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There's no doubt in my mind that Boston is a better team and should/will win the series. I'm just pointing out that it's not remotely a stretch to see a few key numbers changing and the outcome of these games flip. Dallas, for example, missed a bunch of wide open looks. Those go down and it's a different game. Maybe not a different outcome (Boston may still win), but a different game.
 

tims4wins

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There's no doubt in my mind that Boston is a better team and should/will win the series. I'm just pointing out that it's not remotely a stretch to see a few key numbers changing and the outcome of these games flip. Dallas, for example, missed a bunch of wide open looks. Those go down and it's a different game. Maybe not a different outcome (Boston may still win), but a different game.
Dallas' problem is that they need all of their bad numbers to improve, but not let any of the Celtics bad numbers improve.

This is akin to saying if we had just won X Y and Z close games we'd be a 12 win football team, and ignore the close wins in games A B C.
 

Devizier

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I’ve been very hesitant to dog the Mavericks as they are a good team, and with a league as deep as it is this year, anything could happen. But the Celtics are just a really bad matchup for them, as @lovegtm and @HomeRunBaker have repeatedly pointed out. I would be much more concerned about a Minnesota matchup, which isn’t to say that I’m not concerned with this one.
 

BaseballJones

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Dallas' problem is that they need all of their bad numbers to improve, but not let any of the Celtics bad numbers improve.

This is akin to saying if we had just won X Y and Z close games we'd be a 12 win football team, and ignore the close wins in games A B C.
It was one game. Shooting variance can easily swing the other way the next game. The only bad shooting variance for Boston was Tatum (6-16) and Pritchard (0-7). But do we expect Brown and Porzingis and Hauser to go a combined 18-29 (62.1%) and 6-12 from three?

During the season Boston shot 48.7% overall and 38.8% from three.
In game 1 Boston shot 47.6% overall and 38.1% from three. So right on their season average in both cases. This was a "normal" game for Boston, and yet they still only managed 107 points (compared to 120.6 per game during the season and 128.5 vs Dal this year).

Meanwhile, Dallas had nobody shoot great, but had Luka go 12-26 (46.2%), Kyrie go 6-19 (31.6%), and Jones go 2-9 (22.2%). That's 37.0% from the three of them. I don't see that getting worse; only better, but they didn't have anyone who you'd say went crazy in game 1 that should cool off.

The one area where Boston should improve is in turnovers.
 

joe dokes

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It was one game. Shooting variance can easily swing the other way the next game. The only bad shooting variance for Boston was Tatum (6-16) and Pritchard (0-7). But do we expect Brown and Porzingis and Hauser to go a combined 18-29 (62.1%) and 6-12 from three?
I think the variance point is a good one.But it's also pretty unlikely that Brown, Porzingis and Hauser will regress AND that neither Pritchard nor Tatum will shoot better. (Though not impossible, of course).

The "only 107 points" point is interesting. Celtics only took 82 shots. Someone smarter than I am probably knows why.
 

tims4wins

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It was one game. Shooting variance can easily swing the other way the next game. The only bad shooting variance for Boston was Tatum (6-16) and Pritchard (0-7). But do we expect Brown and Porzingis and Hauser to go a combined 18-29 (62.1%) and 6-12 from three?

During the season Boston shot 48.7% overall and 38.8% from three.
In game 1 Boston shot 47.6% overall and 38.1% from three. So right on their season average in both cases. This was a "normal" game for Boston, and yet they still only managed 107 points (compared to 120.6 per game during the season and 128.5 vs Dal this year).

Meanwhile, Dallas had nobody shoot great, but had Luka go 12-26 (46.2%), Kyrie go 6-19 (31.6%), and Jones go 2-9 (22.2%). That's 37.0% from the three of them. I don't see that getting worse; only better, but they didn't have anyone who you'd say went crazy in game 1 that should cool off.

The one area where Boston should improve is in turnovers.
The Celts offensive rating was 117.4 in the game. It was 123.2 in the regular season. It is 119.9 in the playoffs. Pace matters. As you note, their shooting was more or less average. They had a few sloppy turnovers.

Also, the Celts play better defense than the Mavs. That part matters. The Mavs have feasted on corner 3s these playoffs. The Celts only gave them 4 attempts in game 1. That is a strategy, not fluke.

The Mavs can shooting variance their way to a win. Possibly even 2. Not 4.

The Timpf video had a good example of the Celts being willing to give up an above the break 3... to a guy who is shooting 29.5% on above the break 3s. Will he hit that shot 3 times out of 10? Yeah. But he'll miss more often than he hits, so you live with it.
 
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BaseballJones

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The Celts offensive rating was 117.4 in the game. It was 123.2 in the regular season. It is 119.9 in the playoffs. Pace matters. As you note, their shooting was more or less average. They had a few sloppy turnovers.

Also, the Celts play better defense than the Mavs. That part matters. The Mavs have feasted on corner 3s these playoffs. The Celts only gave them 4 attempts in game 1. That is a strategy, not fluke.

The Mavs can shooting variance their way to a win. Possibly even 2. Not 4.

The Timpf video had a good example of the Celts being willing to give up an above the break 3... to a guy who is shooting 29.5% on above the break 3s. Will he hit that shot 3 times out of 10? Yeah. But he'll miss more often than he hits, so you live with it.
I agree that the Celtics are better and should/will win the series. I am just trying to say that Dallas can win a couple of games simply by shooting a little better.

We do this a lot here - when the Celtics play well and win we almost think, man, this team is so much better than the other team (insert team X) and I can't see how team X can win.

And then, they do win. Because it's the NBA and it really doesn't take that much for the natural variance to swing things. Over a long period of time the better team will win more often (sometimes much more often), which is why they're better. But in a small sample size, it's not difficult at all to see how the other team can win some games.
 

benhogan

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It was one game. Shooting variance can easily swing the other way the next game. The only bad shooting variance for Boston was Tatum (6-16) and Pritchard (0-7). But do we expect Brown and Porzingis and Hauser to go a combined 18-29 (62.1%) and 6-12 from three?

During the season Boston shot 48.7% overall and 38.8% from three.
In game 1 Boston shot 47.6% overall and 38.1% from three. So right on their season average in both cases. This was a "normal" game for Boston, and yet they still only managed 107 points (compared to 120.6 per game during the season and 128.5 vs Dal this year).

Meanwhile, Dallas had nobody shoot great, but had Luka go 12-26 (46.2%), Kyrie go 6-19 (31.6%), and Jones go 2-9 (22.2%). That's 37.0% from the three of them. I don't see that getting worse; only better, but they didn't have anyone who you'd say went crazy in game 1 that should cool off.

The one area where Boston should improve is in turnovers.
Not all shots are created equal is the basis of Mazzulla-ball.
It wasn't an accident that Boston took away High-value FGA like Corner3s, Luka/Ky kick-out assists, & Center rim run/dunks.

Calling G1 a 1-game sample size disregards the other 96 Celtic games this season. Joe has made adjustments during the season/playoffs, like using Tatum on Centers to address their PnR weakness. Or not-blitzing Alpha scorers (lowest in the NBA)

Boston's two losses in the playoffs were driven by collapsing on D and leaving perimeter shooters open. This led to
the HEAT shooting 23/43 (53.5%) from 3 in G2
the CAVs shooting 13/28 (46.4%) from 3 in G2

Boston stopped collapsing against the Pacers & lived with their single coverage. Pacers shot mid-rangers at historic levels and still got swept.

Even as great as Luka & Kyrie are, I don't expect the Celtics to help/collapse into the paint on D. Boston will live with their scoring outbursts.

Again, shooting variance was just one of several problems the MAVs had in G1.
Maybe Kidd figured something out over the last 4:30 minutes when they scored 14 points. More Hardy! ;)
 

BaseballJones

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So I guess this series is a total foregone conclusion and we shouldn’t expect much by way of competitive games, never mind the Mavs winning them. That’s good to know! Eases my stress level considerably.
 

benhogan

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So I guess this series is a total foregone conclusion and we shouldn’t expect much by way of competitive games, never mind the Mavs winning them. That’s good to know! Eases my stress level considerably.
Maybe see what Kidd's adjustments are before declaring it's a make or miss series
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Meanwhile, Dallas had nobody shoot great, but had Luka go 12-26 (46.2%), Kyrie go 6-19 (31.6%), and Jones go 2-9 (22.2%). That's 37.0% from the three of them. I don't see that getting worse; only better, but they didn't have anyone who you'd say went crazy in game 1 that should cool off.
Jones Jr. is a notoriously poor shooter. That's why he was available for the vet minimum. He's thrived in the playoffs because he's hit 38+% from the left corner 3P and over 50% from the right corner 3P (I could have those spots switched; I'm going from memory) - but he ain't getting any of those shots against the Cs. He's also something like 4-15 on ATB 3Ps. The Cs will give him that all day long.

DAL for the playoff is like 39.3% on corner 3Ps on 201 attempts. They are as a team 142-398 (35.7%) on ATB 3Ps. However, a lot of those were Doncic (61-171 or 35.7%) and Irving (40-97 or 41.2%) - or combined 268 of the 398 ATB 3Ps. I mentioned Jones above. PJ Washington for the playoffs is 13-46 (28.3%) on ATB 3Ps. Klieber is 5-14 (also 35.7%; DAL apparently likes that number) but has seemed reluctant to shoot those since he came back from his shoulder issue. Josh Green is 5-12 but we all saw how he turned down a wide-open one for a runner that clanked off the rim. Maybe they play Hardy more - he's 7-17 during the playoffs.

But the other problem is because BOS is staying home on the shooters, they aren't getting a lot of touches so it's not like any of these looks really came in rhythm in G1.

I think we all agree with you that DAL is going to win at least one game (I had BOS in 6) - of course that assumes Luka makes it through the entire series - but DAL will have to play their A game and BOS will have to play their B- (or worse) game for that to happen. BOS has a lot of ways to win. DAL to win needs (1) an efficient Luka, (2) a very efficient Kyrie, (3) a couple of role players to shoot well from 3P, particularly on ATB 3Ps, and (4) BOS not to shoot well (or abandon the game plan).
 

slamminsammya

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So I guess this series is a total foregone conclusion and we shouldn’t expect much by way of competitive games, never mind the Mavs winning them. That’s good to know! Eases my stress level considerably.
No one is making this argument.

The Celtics were large favorites for a reason and game 1 just reinforced that.
 

tims4wins

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So I guess this series is a total foregone conclusion and we shouldn’t expect much by way of competitive games, never mind the Mavs winning them. That’s good to know! Eases my stress level considerably.
I mean it’s happened twice in 13 games and none of the last 8, so maybe it will happen once or even twice. But it damn well better happen in game B for the Mavs or else it is 123Cancun
 

benhogan

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Put the poster on ignore and re-read this page. It flows so, so much better.
I suspect a lot of the mainstream NBA Media will run with Make or Miss, so BJ won't be alone. And shooting variance always plays a part in every game BUT it has been beaten to death all season when the Celtics win, along with they shoot too many 3s :eek:

Speaking of which what is Gary Washburn complaining about these days?
 

lars10

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I suspect a lot of the mainstream NBA Media will run with Make or Miss, so BJ won't be alone. And shooting variance always plays a part in every game BUT it has been beaten to death all season when the Celtics win, along with they shoot too many 3s :eek:

Speaking of which what is Gary Washburn complaining about these days?
So much ‘analysis’ after the game was ‘as we know Boston lives and dies with the three’..
 

DavidTai

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So much ‘analysis’ after the game was ‘as we know Boston lives and dies with the three’..
Did they do this with Miami last year? cuz I don't think they even made the same critique even after a series where they were unconscious from 3.
 

BaseballJones

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Maybe see what Kidd's adjustments are before declaring it's a make or miss series
I never claimed it was a “make or miss series”. I have simply said it’s not hard to see how the Mavs could shoot better and win some games.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean it’s happened twice in 13 games and none of the last 8, so maybe it will happen once or even twice. But it damn well better happen in game B for the Mavs or else it is 123Cancun
As I’ve said repeatedly now, the Celtics are better and should (and I think WILL) win the series. But the reaction after game one here is like, omg I cannot fathom any way the Mavs can even win a game here. Well, I can. Pretty easily.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean that’s true of literally any NBA game. I don’t see how that furthers the discussion here.
Then I guess this series isn’t worth discussing. It’s a foregone conclusion, right? There’s nothing the Mavericks can do.
 

tims4wins

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As I’ve said repeatedly now, the Celtics are better and should (and I think WILL) win the series. But the reaction after game one here is like, omg I cannot fathom any way the Mavs can even win a game here. Well, I can. Pretty easily.
No one has said they can’t fathom the Mavs winning a game. Many have said they can’t fathom the Mavs winning the series.
 

slamminsammya

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As I’ve said repeatedly now, the Celtics are better and should (and I think WILL) win the series. But the reaction after game one here is like, omg I cannot fathom any way the Mavs can even win a game here. Well, I can. Pretty easily.
Name one person here who has said they can't fathom the Mavs winning a game.
 

lovegtm

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There's no doubt in my mind that Boston is a better team and should/will win the series. I'm just pointing out that it's not remotely a stretch to see a few key numbers changing and the outcome of these games flip. Dallas, for example, missed a bunch of wide open looks. Those go down and it's a different game. Maybe not a different outcome (Boston may still win), but a different game.
100%. That's why they play 7 games. If the things you mentioned happen, Dallas might win game 2, and everyone will be overreacting back the other way.

The Cs have some big advantages in this series, but they play out over a large sample. Key is to stay focused if 2 quarters or 2 games go against you for whatever reason.
 

tims4wins

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Then I guess this series isn’t worth discussing. It’s a foregone conclusion, right? There’s nothing the Mavericks can do.
There’s plenty of things to discuss. Shooting variance just isn’t really one of them. Especially until we see game B.

Let’s discuss how the Mavs are going to create better shots and force the Celts to take worse shots. Because that is the key to the shooting. The Mavs took 4 corner threes vs I believe 13 for the Celtics in game 1.
 

BaseballJones

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To everyone coming at me here - it’s fine, but just keep in mind that this is the post I was responding to:


As I said a day or two ago, the Mavs hype really felt like a financial bubble, where everyone was FOMO'ing in to buy Dallas stock at any price, even as it was being bid up to insane narrative levels.

Now there will be an overcorrection the other way, where everyone is swinging towards Boston, but Dallas will probably find some stuff to improve. The "Play Harder and Better" adjustment is very much in play for game 2, as is the "have roleplayers make a few more 3s" adjustment.
And I agreed with lovegtm and commented that I thought it wasn’t very difficult to conceive of how Dallas could be in this thing.

Here’s my first post on this:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/national-celtics-discourse.42862/post-6175364
 

snowmanny

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Ed Hillel

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As I’ve said repeatedly now, the Celtics are better and should (and I think WILL) win the series. But the reaction after game one here is like, omg I cannot fathom any way the Mavs can even win a game here. Well, I can. Pretty easily.
Probably worth pointing out that Boston didn’t even shoot all that well in Game 1. It was pretty average shooting on some above average looks. Not to say Dallas can’t win, but it’s gonna be extremely tough.
 

tims4wins

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Probably worth pointing out that Boston didn’t even shoot all that well in Game 1. It was pretty average shooting on some above average looks. Not to say Dallas can’t win, but it’s gonna be extremely tough.
You would think based off this discussion that the Celts hit 20+ on close to 50%. It was 16 on 38%. There was zero shooting variance impact on the Celts 107.
 

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Ed Hillel

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You would think based off this discussion that the Celts hit 20+ on close to 50%. It was 16 on 38%. There was zero shooting variance impact on the Celts 107.
I would wager they had a high volume of good looks on those, too. One possession they legit missed 5 wide open 3s, most of them very badly lol. Early game jitters.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Trying to sow discord is some next level despicable crap. Seriously.
Really? He is trying to win the NBA finals. Sports is not some porcelain doll collection held in secret by a supposed gangster rapper. This is legacy stuff and nobody will remember the '23-24 Dallas as anything other than the team the Celtics beat en route to banner 18 if the Mavs lose.

I don't love Jason Kidd but he is a good NBA coach and should be doing anything possible to adjust, motivate his team and muck up what Boston is doing. There is nothing despicable about it because there is no winning "the right way". There is just winning and losing.
 

TripleOT

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Did Dallas’ rotation players score only 75 points in 43 minutes because they shot poorly, or was the Boston defense just too tough a matchup for their personnel? Even when Boston was struggling on offense, turning the ball over and not making baskets for a good portion of the third quarter, Dallas could scrounge up only 24 points.

After Dallas opened the game with nine points in the first 2:47, they scored only 22 points in the next 19 1/2 minutes before a late flurry to end the half. They certainly need to play with more force, but they don’t have any big threats to create offense besides TGSBoAT (the greatest scoring backcourt of all time).

Boston can play a lot better offensively. I’d be surprised if Boston is held under 110 points in Game two, unless they’re so far ahead and we see half a quarter of garbage time. Home teams are supposed to win Game one, but Boston made a statement with their defense. They need to lock it in more, and play a bit better on offense to send another message to the Mavs as they head to Dallas to put a stranglehold on the series.
 

NomarsFool

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Really? He is trying to win the NBA finals. Sports is not some porcelain doll collection held in secret by a supposed gangster rapper. This is legacy stuff and nobody will remember the '23-24 Dallas as anything other than the team the Celtics beat en route to banner 18 if the Mavs lose.

I don't love Jason Kidd but he is a good NBA coach and should be doing anything possible to adjust, motivate his team and muck up what Boston is doing. There is nothing despicable about it because there is no winning "the right way". There is just winning and losing.
Sorry, I would just disagree. It's one thing to be cagey and not give up information about who's injured, what your strategy is, stuff like that. I think trying to cause drama within the other team is kind of juvenile, but Kidd is generally a POS - so, whatever.