NBA Lottery Game Thread
- Thread starter Ed Hillel
- Start date
The first of 3 #1 overall picks begins now!
2016 - Brandon Ingram
2017 - Josh Jackson
2018 - DeAndre Ayton
2016 - Brandon Ingram
2017 - Josh Jackson
2018 - DeAndre Ayton
Just want to put this near the top of the thread:
Celtics Lottery Odds by Pick:
1st Pick: 15.60%
2nd Pick: 15.74%
3rd Pick: 15.58%
4th Pick: 22.56%
5th Pick: 26.48%
6th Pick: 4.04%
Crazy to think the Celtics have a better odds of falling outside of the top 3 than being in it.
Celtics Lottery Odds by Pick:
1st Pick: 15.60%
2nd Pick: 15.74%
3rd Pick: 15.58%
4th Pick: 22.56%
5th Pick: 26.48%
6th Pick: 4.04%
Crazy to think the Celtics have a better odds of falling outside of the top 3 than being in it.
Trying to not get my hopes up, but at some point the Celtics deserve to catch a break in the lottery.
Too many people here don't seem appropriately scarred by the draft lottery. I'm still terrified that somehow Dallas will move up from outside the lottery into the top 3 and the Celtics lose the pick.
But seriously, I'm expecting #6 and I'll be pleasantly surprised with anything higher.
But seriously, I'm expecting #6 and I'll be pleasantly surprised with anything higher.
To pass the time, here's the RealGM NBA Draft Lottery Simulator. I did it 10 times and a 1 or 2 pick only came twice. Mostly 3-5.
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_simulator
http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/lottery_simulator
I used this one: http://www.tankathon.com/
Got #2 once, #3 twice, then #4 and #5 the other 7 times.
Kept going to see how many tries before #1 appeared---12 sims.
Tried Red's--it took 14 tries to get #1.
Got #2 once, #3 twice, then #4 and #5 the other 7 times.
Kept going to see how many tries before #1 appeared---12 sims.
Tried Red's--it took 14 tries to get #1.
I used both 10 times
Real GM: 3,3,4,2,2,1,3,5,5,1
Tankathon: 5,1,4,3,2,1,2,5,4,5
Reordering:
Real GM: 1,1,2,2,3,3,3,4,5,5
Tankathon: 1,1,2,2,3,4,4,5,5,5
Real GM: 3,3,4,2,2,1,3,5,5,1
Tankathon: 5,1,4,3,2,1,2,5,4,5
Reordering:
Real GM: 1,1,2,2,3,3,3,4,5,5
Tankathon: 1,1,2,2,3,4,4,5,5,5
I should play the real lotto tonight - did both sims about 10 times, and landed #1 at almost a 50% clip.
Some quick sleuthing uncovers that the last time the Celts had the #1 pick was 1950. Via Wiki:
"Charles Edward "Chuck" Share (March 14, 1927 – June 7, 2012) was an American basketball player. He was the first draft pick in NBA history, being selected by the Boston Celtics as the number one pick in 1950. Share never played for the Celtics, however.
Share started his NBA career with the Fort Wayne Pistons and played nine years in that league for the Pistons, Milwaukee Hawks/St. Louis Hawks, and the Minneapolis Lakers. Share led the NBA in disqualifications during the 1954-55 season.[1] He was the captain of the 1958 NBA champion St. Louis Hawks team."
Some quick sleuthing uncovers that the last time the Celts had the #1 pick was 1950. Via Wiki:
"Charles Edward "Chuck" Share (March 14, 1927 – June 7, 2012) was an American basketball player. He was the first draft pick in NBA history, being selected by the Boston Celtics as the number one pick in 1950. Share never played for the Celtics, however.
Share started his NBA career with the Fort Wayne Pistons and played nine years in that league for the Pistons, Milwaukee Hawks/St. Louis Hawks, and the Minneapolis Lakers. Share led the NBA in disqualifications during the 1954-55 season.[1] He was the captain of the 1958 NBA champion St. Louis Hawks team."
This. My biggest fear is that they win and turn the #1 pick and Russell into someone like Paul George.
HEY! I've had a bad enough year as a sports fan why you got to destroy the Sixers like that?
2016 NBA Draft Lotto Sim Results
1.
Boston Celtics
from Brooklyn
2.
Denver Nuggets
3.
Phoenix Suns
4.
Philadelphia Sixers
5. Philadelphia Sixers
from L.A. Lakers via Phoenix
1.
Boston Celtics from Brooklyn
2.
Denver Nuggets3.
Phoenix Suns4.
Philadelphia Sixers5.
Philadelphia Sixers from L.A. Lakers via Phoenix
Ran Tankathon 40 times during a webex... With the exception of the weirdly outsized #5 rate, things seem to be within odds - 47% 1-3, 53% 4-6
1 17.5%
2 5.0%
3 25.0%
4 12.5%
5 37.5%
6 2.5%
This is completely meaningless, but it reminds me why I think the draft lottery is useless. Just go by record and add a #1 mercy rule.
Ran it once:
2016 NBA Draft Lotto Sim Results
1. Boston Celtics
from Brooklyn
2.
Minnesota Timberwolves
3. Philadelphia Sixers
4. Philadelphia Sixers
from L.A. Lakers via Phoenix
5. Phoenix Suns
6.
New Orleans Pelicans
7. Denver Nuggets
Swap with New York
8.
Sacramento Kings
2016 NBA Draft Lotto Sim Results
1.
Boston Celtics from Brooklyn
2.
Minnesota Timberwolves3.
Philadelphia Sixers4.
Philadelphia Sixers from L.A. Lakers via Phoenix
5.
Phoenix Suns6.
New Orleans Pelicans7.
Denver Nuggets Swap with New York
8.
Sacramento Kings
C's land the 1 spot, Philly gets 2 and 4 and the Colangelos, desperate for immediate help, trade us 2 and 4 for the much more physically ready Simmons.
As long as we're pitching dream scenarios.
As long as we're pitching dream scenarios.
I hate to be that guy but we are getting 5 or 6 tonight. The Celtics are the best franchise in NBA history and will continue to be also the best in NBA History to never receive a #1 pick in the lottery era
The Celtics will pick 5th. Stories will come out that the guy Danny wanted went 4th. In 5 years it will be determined that the best player in the draft was picked 4th.
So close. The best player will be picked fifth, but it won't be by the Celtics ... who make a pre-arranged trade out of the fifth pick after the guy Danny wanted goes fourth
Before we wallow in self pity, let just remember if it wasnt for a crazy russian he wouldnt be in the lottery at all. This pick is basically a gift. As is the swap next year and the pick the year after that, a complete gift.
Do we know what time they actually do the lottery? Has this been done since this morning and we're just waiting for the TV show?
No it isn't.
It happens sometime after 7PM in a room with a rep from each lottery team and a group of reporters present, that's when they find out the numbers. The show is just an announcement.
This is one of the reporters, at 6:45pm they go into the room and all phones are confiscated and held until after the TV announcements.
No it's not. I don't even think they try to pretend it is anymore and now announce who will be the "monitor" for each team (Wyc for the Celtics) who is in the room with the PWC guys. I always assumed it was done an hour or so before but that was based on nothing really other than reducing the time for it to leak but it could be done earlier.