NBA player tiers: The top 125 players ranked in groups -The Athletic

[DGreenwood]

The Athletic published it's list of the top 125 players in the NBA. It's a series of five articles so there is a lot of information. It's a pay site so I'll try to include enough to stimulate the conversation without giving too much of their content away. I'll link the articles in case you want more detail.

• Seth Partnow wrote the articles, so it's all analytics based, but he says he got a lot of input from The Athletic staff.
• Instead of a straight up ranking, he broke it down by tiers (and sub-tiers).
• Names are not ranked within tiers
• The Tier 5 link also has the introduction explaining the whole system.
• I'll focus on where the Celtics rank and also include the top 19 overall. If that's too much I'll edit out the top 19.

Tier 5 (Players 80-125)

• Dennis Schroder
• Robert Williams (the article mentions that he was one of the last five in)

Tier 4 (Players 37-79)

• Al Horford (sub-tier B, 57-79)
• Marcus Smart (sub-tier B, 57-79)

Tier 3 (Players 20-36)

• Jaylen Brown (sub-tier C, 31-36)

Tier 2 (Players 8-19)

• Anthony Davis (sub-tier A, 8-10)
• Joel Embiid (sub-tier A, 8-10)
• Luka Doncic (sub-tier A, 8-10)

• Damian Lillard (sub-tier B, 11-14)
• Jimmy Butler (sub-tier B, 11-14)
• Paul George (sub-tier B, 11-14)
• Rudy Gobert (sub-tier B, 11-14)

• Bam Adebayo (sub-tier C, 15-19)
• Chris Paul (sub-tier C, 15-19)
• Jayson Tatum (sub-tier C, 15-19)
• Khris Middleton (sub-tier C, 15-19)
• Kyrie Irving (sub-tier C, 15-19)

Tier 1 (Players 1-7)

• Giannis Atentokounmpo (sub-tier A, 1-3)
• Kevin Durant (sub-tier A, 1-3)
• Lebron James (sub-tier A, 1-3)

• James Harden (sub-tier B, 4-7)
• Kawhi Leonard (sub-tier B, 4-7)
• Nikola Jokic (sub-tier B, 4-7)
• Steph Curry (sub-tier B, 4-7)

 

[GreenMonster49]

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[TripleOT]

If anyone wants a 30-day guest pass to The Athletic, I have five to give away--PM me if you are interested.

I started with The Athletic with their $1 offer, and have been impressed with their content. Once the offer expires, I’m sticking with them

 

[Cellar-Door]

Tatum below Bam is a disgrace. He's not that good.

 

[DGreenwood]

Tatum below Bam is a disgrace. He's not that good.

Tatum and Bam are in the same sub-tier. There is no ranking within sub-tiers.

 

[Marceline]

Tatum below Bam is a disgrace. He's not that good.

They are in the same tier, so he's not really below him.

 

[TripleOT]

They are in the same tier, so he's not really below him.

They are listed alphabetically in each tier, by first name (with Khris Middleton’s first name spelled incorrectly)

 

[DGreenwood]

They are listed alphabetically in each tier, by first name (with Khris Middleton’s first name spelled incorrectly)

I fixed it. I had also flip flopped Luka and Embiid, I fixed that as well.

 

[JM3]

What are these a ranking of exactly? It can't be for next year what with a broken Kawhi being a tier ahead of Luka.

Smh @ Sethy.

 

[DGreenwood]

What are these a ranking of exactly? It can't be for next year what with a broken Kawhi being a tier ahead of Luka.

Smh @ Sethy.

From the article:

For the purpose of the tiers, I assume players are healthy; otherwise, those like Kawhi Leonard or Jamal Murray might drop off the list for a year entirely. As they recover from their respective ACL surgeries, neither player is likely to be especially helpful in next season’s title chase. So I don’t hold their injured status against them. However, with an injury as serious and perhaps as deleterious to playing ability as an ACL tear, the possibility of a diminution of ability results in slight downgrades.

Without that worry, Leonard would easily slot into Tier 1A...

 

[Kliq]

I'd probably bump Tatum up to Tier 2B, I think he's better than Paul George.

I'd also bump LeBron down to Tier 1B, although I get they are assuming perfect health for these guys.

 

[NomarsFool]

Al Horford surprises me. I guess we'll see.

Kyrie Irving seems a bit high to me.

 

[lexrageorge]

Al Horford surprises me. I guess we'll see.

Kyrie Irving seems a bit high to me.

Horford had a surprisingly efficient season last year before Memphis shut him down.

Kyrie can light the scoreboard in short order if his shot is falling.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Al Horford surprises me. I guess we'll see.

Kyrie Irving seems a bit high to me.

Horford is helped by the stats focus, he was good for OKC last year, and it probably helped his numbers that they had no other big men who could defend so he looked like a transformative defender.

I think Kyrie is just right, there is more of a case for him being better than Gobert and Butler than there is him being worse than Bam or Middleton.

If I were re-doing these, I'd consider sliding him and Tatum up a tier, or Bam and Middleton down one.

 

[Euclis20]

Kyrie really does feel way too high here. Yeah he's a tremendously efficient scorer at volume, but his TS% this year was behind a bunch of other 20+ ppg guys (Durant, Curry, Zion, Jokic, Embiid, LaVine, Giannis, SGA, Lillard, Kawhi, Harden) to the point where it's not historically unique (50/40/90 hype aside). I don't know that it makes up for his brutal defense (and questionable chemistry), and when you're the 3rd best scorer on your own team you get an asterisk whenever someone talks about your scoring efficiency in relation to players who are the #1 option on their own team.

He's also helped as much as anyone on this list by the author excluding injury concerns as a factor. A 29 year old 6'2 guard whose been unable to finish the year three times in the last four years is the reddest of red flags.

 

[mikeford]

I'd probably bump Tatum up to Tier 2B, I think he's better than Paul George.

This was my immediate takeaway too. Paul George now? Yeah I will take Tatum 100/100 times.

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

Eh, Paul George was carrying his team in the Western Conference finals when his number 2 went down last year while Tatum was sitting home after getting blown out in the first round with his number 2 out. He's a more efficient scorer and still better defender than Tatum. It's real close but I don't grudge anyone who thinks Paul George is better right now.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Paul George had a down year or two, but last year he was terrific, he was better than Tatum last year, and it was not a particularly close race between them given his much better D.
Going forward yeah I'd prefer Tatum, but in terms of who was better in the most recent season we saw it's PG, and that makes ranking him higher perfectly reasonable.

 

[Euclis20]

Yeah George over Tatum (for this coming year) is certainly reasonable.

Really, putting injury issues aside is a bit of a cop out for the entire process. I understand that it's difficult to quantify but other than Covid, Tatum has had no health issues. There are a whole bunch of guys in tier 2 (Paul, George, Irving, Butler, Embiid, Davis) with some pretty real injury concerns that I think might put them behind Tatum for the coming season (let alone multiple seasons down the line), but within the rules set forth in the article, it all seems fine.

 

[benhogan]

I imagine looking at stats from previous seasons + not considering previous injuries would help players 29+ and handicap players 25 & under

Every one of these NBA analysts play the projection game to the nth degree for 19yr old draft picks. BUT just can't get their heads around projecting players for the upcoming season that have played 3-4 NBA seasons.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Sub tier 2B is the all-overrated tier. The rest of the list is spot on IMO.

 

[nighthob]

How the heck does a guy that won't be playing next year get a top 7 nod? Especially given the injury issues which is really clouding his future.

 

[Cellar-Door]

How the heck does a guy that won't be playing next year get a top 7 nod? Especially given the injury issues which is really clouding his future.

Because injury is not taken into account and it's not a future looking ranking really. It's basically a tiering of where players are right now (assuming health).

 

[nighthob]

Not sure it's even that anchored in reality. There's an awful lot of wishcasting or "For one night!!!" stuff going on in that list.

 

[benhogan]

some of the NBA advanced metric crowd has drifted into lies, damned lies, and statistics

 

[bakahump]

Because injury is not taken into account and it's not a future looking ranking really. It's basically a tiering of where players are right now (assuming health).

(nothing against you @Cellar-Door I know your only clarifying)
Which is a stupid way to do it. Have an "Injured tier" of something. But assuming full health when not only can you not assume full health but you KNOW is not full health is stupid to Rank. Finally you cant even assume that they will come back as good as before.

I mean Kawhi is going to materially change NOTHING next year so why even consider him.

There will be plenty of time when he is retired to say he was the 47th or 18th or 112th best player of all time.

 

[the moops]

Which is a stupid way to do it. Have an "Injured tier" of something. But assuming full health when not only can you not assume full health but you KNOW is not full health is stupid to Rank. Finally you cant even assume that they will come back as good as before.

I mean Kawhi is going to materially change NOTHING next year so why even consider him.

No matter which way he did this, people would bitch. He excludes injured guys completely and people would say "what if Kawhi comes back for the playoffs" or "Murray gets back before the all-star break". The author can't please everyone.

I like the not taking injuries into account and just theorizing on who, when healthy are the best players. He isn't trying to put a team together, he is trying to rank players.

 

[NomarsFool]

I think the approach is okay as it is looking at recent production and not meant to be forward looking. The question "which player would you draft right now, to start your franchise?" is a different one. If you are trying to win right now, you'd probably take Lebron over Tatum. Trying to win over the next 10 years, obviously Tatum wins out.

 

[JM3]

I don't see much point in utilizing advanced stats to neither tell you anything about what you just saw last year, or what you can expect to see next year, but here we are.

I'm actually doing a next 3 years draft on a different site & would enjoy doing one here, too, for any time frame people wanted.

 

[Marceline]

I don't see much point in utilizing advanced stats to neither tell you anything about what you just saw last year, or what you can expect to see next year, but here we are.

I'm actually doing a next 3 years draft on a different site & would enjoy doing one here, too, for any time frame people wanted.

I love the idea of a next 3 years draft. Are you taking into account contract status or no?

 

[JM3]

I love the idea of a next 3 years draft. Are you taking into account contract status or no?

No, that one just assumes you get the player for the next 3 years with no cap/contract considerations.

 

[bowiac]

some of the NBA advanced metric crowd has drifted into lies, damned lies, and statistics

Can you clarify?

 

[benhogan]

Can you clarify?

some, not all.

 

[Devizier]

I guess I couldn’t care less about these sort of retrospective rankings. They don’t tell you anything that a trip to BB-REF wouldn’t.

 

[the moops]

I guess I couldn’t care less about these sort of retrospective rankings. They don’t tell you anything that a trip to BB-REF wouldn’t.

Well, besides the fact that trip to bb-ref, plus the time spent writing these things up and explaining the thinking, would take one a few months to complete.

I found this article incredibly well done. The fact that there is disagreement is good too, for it provides us something to talk about rather that summer league stuff

 

[slamminsammya]

The taxonomy itself I find illuminating. The way they conceptualize what distinguishes the tiers, and especially when you get into tier 3 and above how they talk about better or worse becomes less meaningful since those players contribution depends more on the team around them, is really helpful. That makes this annual thing interesting to me independent of who they actually put in each tier.

 

[brendan f]

It's all good fun but the idea of "sub-tiers" is fairly extraneous. Still, it's pretty clear Kyrie and Bam are overrated here, and I'd argue Jokic, despite his MVP, does not belong in the top group. He's not demonstrably better than Embiid or even Gobert (his defense is a huge weakness). I'd rank all of those centers in roughly the same group. Agree that George was better than Tatum last year and should be ranked ahead of him, but wouldn't be surprised if Tatum jumps him going forward. But George is a sneaky player because he's very good at almost everything and elite at almost nothing.
Note: I don't have a subscription so was only going off of the rankings presented

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The big reason I think you have to place Jokic above Embiid is that he plays a lot more. Last year Embiid played 1580 minutes; Jokic played 2491. That is not a one-year fluke and while you can mkae the case Embiid is better on a per-minute basis there is no way he is 'enough' better to make up 900+ minutes of lost time.

The Gobert discussion is trickier---he is as good at one end as Jokic is on the other and scheme/data on how well each does at their 'inferior' end is pretty mixed. At some level, the reality that Jokic has a much, much more impactful playoff track record should enter the discussion as well, imo.

 

[Auger34]

Looking at Tiers1-3 the only egregious thing, to me, was that Mike Conley was too high. Other than that, I have minor quibbles but it seemed pretty on the nose

 

[Tony C]

Yeah, for all the criticism here, when I read through this I was impressed by his thorough reasoning. I'd definitely have a quibble or two, as well, and I get that his way of dealing w/ injured players seems arbitrary. But one of the better reasoned/supporting rankings I've ever seen.

 

[JM3]

I'm actually doing a next 3 years draft on a different site & would enjoy doing one here, too, for any time frame people wanted.

Finished this draft. Could post results, or if anyone wants to do any kind of draft here, I would be down.