NBA playoffs 2018

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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At a certain point after losing Rubio, then Exum, then Mitchell (to an uncalled hack by Harden), I can see why they might want to say "fvck this sh*t." Still, they battled right up to the end and showed ten times the gumption of the gutless Raptors.
I can't imagine a Celtics team giving up like that. The game wasn't out of hand, and they were actually scoring pretty easily at the end there. I'd be furious at the coach if I were a fan.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
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SRN's playoff MVPs to date (for entertainment purposes only):

1. LeBron
2. Draymond
3. Horford
4. CP3
5. Rozier
6. KD
7. AD
8. Holiday
9. Capela
10. (tie) Harden/Iguodala/Thompson/Mitchell/Tatum...

I might nudge Horford up to #2 with a strong showing in the close-out game tonight.
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
22,673
Rockets vs Warriors is so much more of a competitive series than whatever the Finals are going to be it isn't even funny. It reminds me of the early aughts when whoever won the WC had to play the Nets.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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Rockets vs Warriors is so much more of a competitive series than whatever the Finals are going to be it isn't even funny. It reminds me of the early aughts when whoever won the WC had to play the Nets.

I think we have a punchers chance against the Rockets if we can get there
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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I mentioned this a while back but it bears repeating. Here are the Celtics' results against Houston and GS this year:

vs GS: W, 92-88
vs Hou: W, 99-98
at GS: L, 109-105
at Hou: L, 123-120

And I know the Celtics are a much different team, but here's last year's results as well:

vs GS: L, 104-88
at Hou: L, 107-106
vs Hou: W, 120-109
at GS: W, 99-86

So they're 2-2 against GS and 2-2 against Houston over the past two seasons. Three of the four losses were within 4 points (one blowout). Two of the four wins were within 4 points (two blowouts). Total combined score:

Boston: 829
Opp: 824

If - and I know there's a long way to go - they advance to the NBA finals, they would appear to stand as good a chance as anyone to hang with, and maybe even beat, either Houston or Golden State.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
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Apr 12, 2005
41,949
Where are Scott Foster and Tony Brothers when you need them? Woof.
I heard a couple of interesting tidbits on the radio this afternoon:

Scott Foster has been in three games this month. The only Utah win against Houston, the only Pelicans win against Golden State, and the only Philly win against Boston. Starting to sense a pattern here.

I forget if it was Foster or Brothers, but the Celtics have lost like 8 straight when one of them is the ref.
 

ElUno20

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Jul 19, 2005
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Now that we're here, does anyone think the rockets will beat the dubs? Not they have a good chance or if this goes right. Do they feel like the better team that should win?
 

Sam Ray Not

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You mean 6.25%?
Duh, yeah. I can't do math!

Now that we're here, does anyone think the rockets will beat the dubs? Not they have a good chance or if this goes right. Do they feel like the better team that should win?
Hell no. Whether you look at matchups up and down the roster, length & athleticism, peak net rating with their current personnel, or proven playoff mettle (LeBron v. Toronto says hi), the Warriors should be the (mild) favorites — and are, per Vegas:

GSW 2-3
HOU 21-10
CLE 6-1
BOS 30-1
PHI 60-1

But I think the Rockets are definitely close enough that they have a good chance if this and that go right.
 
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BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Now that we're here, does anyone think the rockets will beat the dubs? Not they have a good chance or if this goes right. Do they feel like the better team that should win?
No. Not with a healthy Curry. Golden State is the better team, though Houston is tremendous. Warriors in six.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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Now that we're here, does anyone think the rockets will beat the dubs? Not they have a good chance or if this goes right. Do they feel like the better team that should win?
I fully expect the Rockets to lose their composure in this series.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Jesus, have they really not tipped off yet? I just went through dinner like an animal thinking I was missing it.
 

AimingForYoko

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Apr 23, 2010
25,403
CT
Now that we're here, does anyone think the rockets will beat the dubs? Not they have a good chance or if this goes right. Do they feel like the better team that should win?
Much like the Lebronto Chickens, I'll believe in Harden when I see it. He has a bit of the loser gene in him and if things don't go his way I could see him throwing a ball at a ref's head at the worst possible time or just shutting it down completely. I also don't think his usual tactic of getting horseshit whistles will work quite so well--unless Scott Foster is reffing a game--this time around.
 

jmm57

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Jul 15, 2005
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This is where I’m at as well. This screams gentleman’s sweep, GS in 5. Maybe HOU can force a game 6 due to the home court.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Jul 19, 2005
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Conversation regarding the WCF overheard on any random internet site...

====

Person A: C’mon dude, don’t overthink this series with your stats: it’s the three-time defending conference champs v. a wannabe contender with a history of choking when it counts. The champs have already dispatched the chokers from the playoffs twice, both times easily. I’ll believe they’re not gonna do the exact same thing again when I see it.

Person B: Well, the past is not always prologue. The "chokers" you’re referring to are not remotely the same team as last year. They’ve been specifically built to dethrone the champs: their all-star backcourt is as deadly as ever; they added depth, a more diverse attack, talent and defensive toughness at the wings; and have a big, young, athletic C that can punish the champs when they go small, as they like to do. Meanwhile, the champs are nowhere near as good as they were last season. You can say they took it easy during the season, and are now "flipping the switch," but that’s a cute saying, not reality. Regular season net rating is still the best predictor we have of playoff performance, and the so-called "chokers" killed the champs in that regard, putting up one of the best seasons in recent memory, while the champs put up by far their worst season of their current era. The 538 site gives the "chokers" 4-5 times the odds of the champs to advance, and that’s with a rather generous correction to their ELO system for the playoff experience of the champs. Even if you bump that correction up even more, you have to give the so-called "chokers" a real chance to take this series.

Person A: Whatever, dude. 538 can take their ELO system or whatever and stick it up Jeff Lynne’s hairy arse. Here’s my math: Champs + MVPs = Win. The champs are gonna dominate this series, like they always do. Maybe the chokers make it superficially close in a game or two, but eventually they’re gonna curl up into a fetal position and fold like they always do. I honestly won’t be surprised if it’s a sweep.

Person B: C’mon, a sweep? At least try to be realistic, man. That’s not only ridiculous but also totally disrespectful of the achievements of the so-called "chokers," who have absolutely killed it this year and been very solid so far in the playoffs. And: they have home court this time, a huge advantage in the playoffs in terms of setting the tone, which wasn't the case in the two previous series losses. Totally different year, totally situation. Things change. Again, the past is not prologue. If it were, we'd see the same teams in the Finals every season.

====

Oh wait … did I say they were talking about the Warriors/Rockets series? I meant Cleveland v. Toronto. :)

(Edit: amusing parallels aside, I have to think the Rockets will take at least a game or two, with an outside shot at advancing given anomalous luck in the coin-flip games).
 

dhellers

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Oct 31, 2005
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Much like the Lebronto Chickens, I'll believe in Harden when I see it. He has a bit of the loser gene in him and if things don't go his way I could see him throwing a ball at a ref's head at the worst possible time or just shutting it down completely. I also don't think his usual tactic of getting horseshit whistles will work quite so well--unless Scott Foster is reffing a game--this time around.
True, but C Paul is on a mission.
 

AimingForYoko

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Apr 23, 2010
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Foster & Brothers are reffing Game 1 so everyone on the East Coast can turn in early.

Draymond getting T'd is a given right?
 

jmm57

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Jul 15, 2005
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538 should probably just shut the system down at this point. 15% GSW is a joke. There must not be any input at all for Curry coming back healthy. Let alone the defending champs ramping it up a bit for the playoffs.
 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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8-1 seems way too low for the Cavs. There's zero chance they're beating GSW, no matter how good LeBron might be.
 

NoXInNixon

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Mar 24, 2008
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Houston at 9-4 is great value. I estimate them at about 40% to beat GSW, and they'll win the finals 95% of the time they get there.
 

johnmd20

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538 should probably just shut the system down at this point. 15% GSW is a joke. There must not be any input at all for Curry coming back healthy. Let alone the defending champs ramping it up a bit for the playoffs.
Houston at 71% does look like a misprint. It's not reflective of reality, unless they have a crystal ball and know Curry is going to hurt his ankle tonight.
 

coremiller

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Jul 14, 2005
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I'm guessing 538's model is off because it probably doesn't put much weight on history before this season, and the Rockets had a much better regular season. Any model based mostly on this year's regular season results is going to heavily favor Houston. We know that makes no sense in this case, but I wouldn't be surprised if in general it makes sense to discount prior-year performance and this Warriors team is just an outlier.
 

TFisNEXT

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Doesn't 538 use ELO rating system? That does not take into account any injuries.
 

coremiller

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Doesn't 538 use ELO rating system? That does not take into account any injuries.
The injuries thing is kind of a red herring. Steph Curry played only seven fewer games than Chris Paul. The bigger issue is that Houston actually tried during the regular season while the Warriors coasted.
 

Marceline

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Doesn't 538 use ELO rating system? That does not take into account any injuries.
Exactly... If you have a team was injured during the regular season, and healthy for the playoffs, that team is not going to be properly rated by 538 because it's using an ELO based system and the Warriors ELO is going to be much lower than it should be due to the injuries hurting their record.
 

luckiestman

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Jul 15, 2005
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Celtics probably beat either of these joke ass teams in 6 but who do you prefer we rip the heart out of?

Janos wants the beard

 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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Draymond is entirely out of control, what the fuck is that? How can you complain with a straight face? I hate him so much
 

DJnVa

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Dec 16, 2010
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I understand you gotta let players be themselves, but that's just stupid.