NBA Standings Watch

k-factory

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Faaaack. I really dont want the Brooklyn circus in round one. Come on.
I just don’t think the Nets D can stop anyone and this C’s D will keep them in check. It’s a good matchup even without TL.
I’d prefer Nets then Sixers but In reality I expect Ime rests everyone tomorrow and we settle into a Toronto series followed by Miami.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I feel like the Cs are destined for the #2 seed and BRK is destined for the #7 seed and even if the Cs beat them, it's going to take so much out of them they will not play as well in the next series (kind like what JT dexcribed the TOR bubble series to be).
 

lovegtm

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Toronto then Miami (with TL) seems pretty good for a conference finals path. Toronto's specific roster would have a very hard time scoring points on the Cs, and the Cs with TL are a better team than Miami, even with the vaunted FTX Arena homecourt advantage.

The 2 seed probably gets Atlanta or Brooklyn, and then possibly Milwaukee. That's pretty rough.
 

m0ckduck

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I feel like the Cs are destined for the #2 seed and BRK is destined for the #7 seed and even if the Cs beat them, it's going to take so much out of them they will not play as well in the next series (kind like what JT dexcribed the TOR bubble series to be).
There's good reason to fear BRK in round 1, but they are only 10-7 since KD got back. Yes, the playoffs are different and superstars win series, etc— but they haven't been playing any better than the Hawks over this stretch.

To me, the clearest route to losing is facing MIL in round 2 with TL not yet back, or very limited. That's the one to avoid.

Edit: as said above, the #4 seed presents a good path. It feels like Siakam would need to go for 40+ on any given night to give the Raptors enough offense in R1. A tough out with MIA in round 2, but only one of MIL, PHI, BRK.
 
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Euclis20

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There's good reason to fear BRK in round 1, but they are only 10-7 since KD got back. Yes, the playoffs are different and superstars win series, etc— but they haven't been playing any better than the Hawks over this stretch.

To me, the clearest route to losing is facing MIL in round 2 with TL not yet back, or very limited. That's the one to avoid.

Edit: as said above, the #4 seed presents a good path. It feels like Siakam would need to go for 40+ on any given night to give the Raptors enough offense in R1. A tough out with MIA in round 2, but only one of MIL, PHI, BRK.
10-7 since Durant came back and just 4-7 against teams either in the playoffs or play-in games. Two legit top 10 scorers with championship experience gives them a higher ceiling than any other team seeded 5-10 (reason enough to want to skip them in round 1), but it's still a bit baffling seeing the oddsmakers putting them either 2nd or 3rd most likely to win the title. They are giving up over 113.5 points per game since Durant came back - the only team that's allowed more ppg over the entire season and is in the top 10 in either conference is Charlotte.
 

DJnVa

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Everyone wanting to avoid Brooklyn is really short-sighted. They need HFA in the next round against Milwaukee so getting the 2 seed is paramount.
There's just too many moving parts until right now. Sunday, about an hour before tipoff, the Nets and Bucks will be done with their seasons and we'll have a better idea with what a win or loss could do.
 

Ed Hillel

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The ideal spot is the 3 seed. I THINK the Celtics control their destiny to get there if they lose tonight and win in Memphis? Either way, they really should lose tonight. Rest up, boys!

I’d say the value of having a layover first round (as opposed to Brooklyn) without Williams is far higher than giving home court potentially to the Bucks in round 2 WITH Williams.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The ideal spot is the 3 seed. I THINK the Celtics control their destiny to get there if they lose tonight and win in Memphis? Either way, they really should lose tonight. Rest up, boys!

I’d say the value of having a layover first round (as opposed to Brooklyn) without Williams is far higher than giving home court potentially to the Bucks in round 2 WITH Williams.
There is still no certainty that TL misses any playoff games. There is also no certainty that TL plays in any. Insert palms up emoji.
 

jmcc5400

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The ideal spot is the 3 seed. I THINK the Celtics control their destiny to get there if they lose tonight and win in Memphis? Either way, they really should lose tonight. Rest up, boys!

I’d say the value of having a layover first round (as opposed to Brooklyn) without Williams is far higher than giving home court potentially to the Bucks in round 2 WITH Williams.
If Philly wins out and the Celtics lose to Milwaukee, the Celtics would end up 4th (assuming Milwaukee wins one of its 2 other games).
 

Ed Hillel

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There is still no certainty that TL misses any playoff games. There is also no certainty that TL plays in any. Insert palms up emoji.
Well, I’m going by what’s been reported as the most likely timeline.

If Philly wins out and the Celtics lose to Milwaukee, the Celtics would end up 4th (assuming Milwaukee wins one of its 2 other games).
Ah, yes, Philly has the extra game, and they have good odds to win out, as Toronto has nothing to play for.
 

bankshot1

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In my best whistling past the graveyard, whistle, I'm whistling the Nets have yet to show they can play 2 good games in a row.

I'm not sure they can, particularly against a very good intense play-off team that can bring defensive pressure every game.

The teams that scare me in the East are the Heat, Raptors, Bucks who can win 7-game rock fights, and Embiid who is a freakin monster that scares me.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Everyone wanting to avoid Brooklyn is really short-sighted. They need HFA in the next round against Milwaukee so getting the 2 seed is paramount.
Seems pretty clear to me that among the teams currently 6 or below, BRK is the best team by a large margin.

Assuming as I believe the Cs have no vaccination issues, I would prefer to play TOR then MIA then BRK then PHI/MIL.

Twitter doesn't mention anything yet about JT, JB, and Al sitting this one out. If they do end up playing, I would wonder about the rationale for that.
 

k-factory

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The grind matchups are more concerning from an exhaustion standpoint than the track meets. Sure Toronto may not have headliners but they are well coached and play defense. The Nets are a paper tiger imo. Sure there will be some bs calls for KD and Kyrie but the C’s would drop 120 points on them every night and the Nets would struggle to keep up.

Philly is the team that’s really in a pickle with Thybulle ineligible in Canada. They really don’t want to play a Toronto series but tonight will be a preview of that. I’d say make Philly the 4 seed and let those grinder teams - Miami/Toronto/Philly wear themselves out. The Bucks will be tough but if you’re going to play them eventually better to do it with that extra game at home.
 

RedOctober3829

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Seems pretty clear to me that among the teams currently 6 or below, BRK is the best team by a large margin.

Assuming as I believe the Cs have no vaccination issues, I would prefer to play TOR then MIA then BRK then PHI/MIL.

Twitter doesn't mention anything yet about JT, JB, and Al sitting this one out. If they do end up playing, I would wonder about the rationale for that.
They are the best team, but I believe they can beat Brooklyn. Therefore, you want to set yourself with the ability to have home court in the next round. The goal is much more than the "easiest" first round matchup. To get through Giannis, having a potential Game 7 at TD Garden would be huge.
 

benhogan

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Not sure if this was posted (pre Chicago game)

https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/4/6/23013290/playoff-seeding-frenzy-boston-celtics-milwaukee-bucks-philadelphia-76ers-miami-heat-tie-breakers

Boston goes 3-0

  • Clinch the 2-seed
  • If Celtics and Sixers go 3-0: Celtics 2 seed, Sixers 3, Bucks 4
  • If Celtics go 3-0, AND Philly and Milwaukee finish with the same record: Celtics 2, Bucks 3, Sixers 4
Boston goes 2-1 with their only loss to Milwaukee

  • Bucks win tiebreaker from Celtics
  • If Sixers go 3-0 and Bucks go 3-0: Bucks 2, Sixers 3, Celtics 4
  • If Sixers go 3-0 and Bucks go 2-1: Sixers 2, Bucks 3, Celtics 4
  • If Bucks go 3-0 and Sixers go 2-1: Bucks 2, Celtics 3, Sixers 4
  • If all teams go 2-1: Bucks 2, Celtics 3, Sixers 4
  • If Bucks go 2-1 and Sixers go 1-2 or worse: Bucks 2, Celtics 3, Sixers 4
  • If Sixers go 2-1 and Bucks go 1-2: Celtics 2, Sixers 3, Bucks 4
  • If both Bucks and Sixers go 1-2 or worse: Celtics 2 seed
Boston goes 2-1 while beating Milwaukee AND Chicago

  • Celtics win tiebreaker from both Sixers and Bucks
  • If all three teams go 2-1: Celtics 2, Bucks 3, Sixers 4
  • If Sixers go 3-0: Sixers 2, Celtics 3, Bucks 4
  • If Sixers go 1-2 AND Bucks win over Detroit OR Cleveland: Celtics 2, Bucks 3, Sixers 4
  • If Sixers go 2-1 AND Bucks go 1-2 or worse: Celtics 2, Sixers 3, Bucks 4
Boston goes 2-1 while beating Milwaukee AND Memphis

  • Bucks can regain tiebreaker from Celtics in any scenarios from above where the two are tied by beating both Detroit AND Cleveland, by virtue of better record against conference
Boston goes 1-2, with their only win over Memphis OR over Chicago

  • Celtics lose tiebreaker to Bucks
  • If both Bucks and Sixers finish 2-1 or better, Celtics become the 4-seed
  • Bucks hold tiebreaker over Sixers
  • If Bucks go 3-0 AND Sixers go 2-1: Bucks 2, Sixers 3, Celtics 4
  • If Sixers go 3-0 AND Bucks go 2-1: Sixers 2, Bucks 3, Celtics 4
  • If Sixers go 2-1 AND Bucks go 1-2: Sixers 2, Bucks 3, Celtics 4
  • If all three go 1-2: Bucks 2, Celtics 3, Sixers 4
Boston goes 1-2, with their only win over Milwaukee

  • Celtics win tiebreaker over Bucks
  • If both Bucks and Sixers finish 2-1 or better, Celtics become the 4-seed
  • Bucks hold tiebreaker over Sixers
  • If Bucks go 3-0 AND Sixers go 2-1: Bucks 2, Sixers 3, Celtics 4
  • If Sixers go 3-0 AND Bucks go 2-1: Sixers 2, Bucks 3, Celtics 4
  • If Sixers go 2-1 AND Bucks go 1-2: Sixers 2, Bucks 3, Celtics 4
  • If all three go 1-2: Celtics 2, Bucks 3, Sixers 4
 

Beale13

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The Celtics 9-7 division record sure stands out as a stinker compared to the other good teams.
Miami and Milwaukee are the only teams with significantly better division records.

More meaningful is that the Celtics have the best record in the Eastern conference against teams with winning records. It won't help them with any tiebreakers, but it should be a much better harbinger for playoff success than division record.
 

lexrageorge

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Miami and Milwaukee are the only teams with significantly better division records.

More meaningful is that the Celtics have the best record in the Eastern conference against teams with winning records. It won't help them with any tiebreakers, but it should be a much better harbinger for playoff success than division record.
Division record only matters when the teams are in the same division. So does not apply against Miami (Celtics win head to head) or Milwaukee (conference record will apply if the Celtics lose).
 

jmcc5400

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The Celtics 9-7 division record sure stands out as a stinker compared to the other good teams.
Isn't that just a function of the Atlantic being the toughest division in at least the East?

Miami is 9-9 against the Atlantic. Milwaukee is 9-8.
 

Saints Rest

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I had forgotten that Ime was in Brooklyn last year. In the NBA, does insider knowledge like that, for a coach, matter? A little? A lot? Not at all?

Put me in the camp that votes for hoping for the #2 seed. In my opinion, the Nets don't scare me all that much, and there's a decent chance they don't even finish #7.
 

snowmanny

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To me the single worst possible match-up for the Celtics is Milwaukee with Milwaukee having the home court advantage. Sure I'd like all sorts of other things and sure they could lose to several other teams but I'd rather they finish ahead of Milwaukee just in case they meet up in a later round. If someone else can take out Milwaukee before Boston has to face the Bucks even better. But I'm not a fan of the 3 seed with Bucks at 2.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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If they were able to take the 1 seed then the whole league is on notice, because their remaining schedule really is a fucking gauntlet.

Vs Timberwolves - 19-7 in their last 26
@ Raptors - always play hard, away game, 2nd of a back to back.
Vs Heat - 1 seed
Vs Pacers - meh
Vs Wash - meh
@Bulls - playoff team
@Bucks - top team, away game, 2nd of a back to back
@Grizzlies - quality opponent, 3rd road game in a row.
I think the league is already on notice but the schedule isn't as tough as you make it. The next three are important, but two are at home. The Bulls are fading fast and the last game is unlikely to matter to the Grizzlies (they are 3 games up right now on the 3 seed and can't catch the Suns).

Outside chance the Bucks game doesn't matter to them, too. They play @Memphis, @philly and then @brooklyn in the next three so that is huge for them.

C's @Toronto will certainly be tough, if they can grind that out I think they have a great shot for #1.
Those 5 games really could go either way. While I think the Celtics are playing the best basketball in the league right now, if they get through the next 8 games at 5-3, I'll consider that a victory.
Through 6 games, they've posted a 4-2 clip. Barring something crazy, they'll be 4-3 by the end of the night.

Not an ideal outcome to wrap up the regular season, but shouldn't have surprised anyone.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Put me in the camp that votes for hoping for the #2 seed. In my opinion, the Nets don't scare me all that much, and there's a decent chance they don't even finish #7.
Curious - why do you think this? I think BRK is very likely of ending up as the #7 seed (at worst the #8 as they hold the tiebreaker over ATL and will hold the tiebreaker over CLE if BRK beats CLE Friday night).

In order for BRK not to finish as the 7th seed, either CLE or ATL would have to beat them. I think ATL has a better chance for CLE (although that might change if CLE gets Mobley/Allen back) but I would personally judge that to be a long shot (and CLE being an even longer shot).

I think 7-10 will end up BRK / ATL / CLE / CHA. I also think MIA is going to rest everyone on Friday against ATL.
 

Saints Rest

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Curious - why do you think this? I think BRK is very likely of ending up as the #7 seed (at worst the #8 as they hold the tiebreaker over ATL and will hold the tiebreaker over CLE if BRK beats CLE Friday night).

In order for BRK not to finish as the 7th seed, either CLE or ATL would have to beat them. I think ATL has a better chance for CLE (although that might change if CLE gets Mobley/Allen back) but I would personally judge that to be a long shot (and CLE being an even longer shot).

I think 7-10 will end up BRK / ATL / CLE / CHA. I also think MIA is going to rest everyone on Friday against ATL.
The reason I think that BK might not end up #7 (as in #7 in the playoffs, not #7 in the play-in seeding) is that they seem to have a high variance of performance levels, such that there is always a "decent chance" (and in my mind "decent" equates to something around 1/3 or so) of putting up a stinker. If they do that on the first play-in game, -- even if they go into it as #7, -- they drop to 8th seed at best.
 

Marceline

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It’s an exercise in futility. Team message boards care about seeding a whole lot more than the teams who are prioritizing rest and preparation.
I've honestly never understood why people get so into breaking down the seeding to this degree or rooting for the easiest possible matchups. I don't mean that as a criticism, but just an observation that it's a different mindset that I can't really relate to.

Honestly I'd rather they have to face all the toughest teams and beat all of them on their way to a championship, but I don't think it's worth worrying about too much one way or the other.
 

DeadlySplitter

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With tonight's results, they seem in control of at least the 3 seed if they win on Sunday, presumably against Memphis backups?

Bucks have a back to back tomorrow against Detroit who is pesky as we know
 

Auger34

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With tonight's results, they seem in control of at least the 3 seed if they win on Sunday, presumably against Memphis backups?

Bucks have a back to back tomorrow against Detroit who is pesky as we know
After tonight, it seens like the most likely outcome is facing the Bulls in the 1st round and the Bucks or Nets in the 2nd?
 

HomeRunBaker

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They tanked a game they almost won? Why were Smart and Brown out there at all?
That wasn’t a tank that’s why. Tanking is what the Bucks did in their last B2B when they sat everyone and gave up 151 to the Clippers. We didn’t sit everyone or play the deep bench.
 

Ed Hillel

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That wasn’t a tank that’s why. Tanking is what the Bucks did in their last B2B when they sat everyone and gave up 151 to the Clippers. We didn’t sit everyone or play the deep bench.
That was a gentleman’s tank. Celtics got the ideal scenario tonight. Playing the Bulls in the first round far outweighs home court against the Bucks.
 

TripleOT

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Denver beating a Ja-less Memphis tea. The Nugs are desperately trying to stay out of the play in tourney, and this win clinches the sixth spot.
 

terrynever

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They tanked a game they almost won? Why were Smart and Brown out there at all?
That was a typo. I meant to say the Celtics were thanking the Bucks.

The outcome reveals that the Celtics clearly are the best team in the East. They don’t care where they are seeded. Nobody in the East can touch Boston.
 

RedOctober3829

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That was a gentleman’s tank. Celtics got the ideal scenario tonight. Playing the Bulls in the first round far outweighs home court against the Bucks.
Let’s see if this opinion holds if and when they meet in the 2nd round and it’s a much more difficult task to beat the Bucks. The ideal scenario is to have HFA as much as you can and not trying to massage the seeding to have a perceived easier 1st rd series just to have a more difficult scenario in the next one.
 

lovegtm

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Let’s see if this opinion holds if and when they meet in the 2nd round and it’s a much more difficult task to beat the Bucks. The ideal scenario is to have HFA as much as you can and not trying to massage the seeding to have a perceived easier 1st rd series just to have a more difficult scenario in the next one.
Not having TL changes this calculus imo. With TL, I'd say just play whomever and get HCA, because the Celtics with him might be the best team in the league. Without him, it would be nice to get a short series and rest for everyone before playing the Bucks, hopefully getting him back then.
 

ekim colorwaterpit

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Not having TL changes this calculus imo. With TL, I'd say just play whomever and get HCA, because the Celtics with him might be the best team in the league. Without him, it would be nice to get a short series and rest for everyone before playing the Bucks, hopefully getting him back then.
I agree with this. I think it's a balance and I also agree with whoever said we care much more about seeding than the team. But personally I think going to play The Bucks after a relatively easy series against the Bulls without homecourt advantage is more advantageous than playing the bucks after a hard fought series with the Nets but with homecourt advantage. Who knows what is actually true but I do think IME believes rest is important based on how he is managing the last few games of the season.
 

Beale13

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What's amazing is that there is an unlikely but not crazy chance that the Celtics could still be in play for the 2 seed without having to face Brooklyn in the first round after tonight - if Milwaukee loses to a pesky Pistons team on the back end road game end of a back to back, and the Nets lose at Cleveland. In that scenario if both Milwaukee and Boston win on Sunday Boston wins the tiebreaker after it goes all the way down to best winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs, which Boston has handily.

Probably the least likely result in this fantasy is that the Nets lose to Cleveland.
 

lovegtm

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What's amazing is that there is an unlikely but not crazy chance that the Celtics could still be in play for the 2 seed without having to face Brooklyn in the first round after tonight - if Milwaukee loses to a pesky Pistons team on the back end road game end of a back to back, and the Nets lose at Cleveland. In that scenario if both Milwaukee and Boston win on Sunday Boston wins the tiebreaker after it goes all the way down to best winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs, which Boston has handily.

Probably the least likely result in this fantasy is that the Nets lose to Cleveland.
The Nets defense gives them a chance to lose any game, so it's all in the realm of possibility.
 

Jakarta

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The Bucks are playing all their starters again tonight on the second night of a back to back, which may indicate they would prefer the 2 seed.
 

terrynever

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Doc said last night that Toronto does not have Philly’s number. Harden said the 76ers just need to play better for longer periods. He was gassed in the fourth quarter while playing 39 minutes. Philly looked old against a Toronto team that rested two starters. There is some great young talent on that team in Scotty Barnes and Precious Achiwa or whatever the hell his name is.

Philly’s bench gave up leads twice. Doc even put Paul Reed on Siakim, who toyed with Embiid on drives in the lane. Toronto scored 46 points in the paint and owned the boards. Philly shot 51 percent from beyond the arc and still lost because the defense sucks.

And yet, Toronto-Philly will be a great series, probably going 7 games.
 

chilidawg

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Philly has Detroit and Indiana at home left, so we're probably going to have to win in Memphis to get the 3rd seed. Bucks up 30, looks like they're headed for the 2. Cavs down 8 at the half to the Nets, Mobley back in the lineup but no Allen.
 

Cellar-Door

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So a few things either locked or got limited with tonight's results.
CHI is 6th (might already have been)
Raptors can no longer finish below 5th. They could still finish 4th if they win their final game and PHI loses to both IND and DET.
PHI can no longer finish 2nd. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their results and BOS/TOR results.
MIL can no longer finish 4th. They can finish 2nd with a win or BOS loss, 3rd with a loss and a BOS win.

So basically the EAST (non-play in) shakes out like this:
1. MIA
2. MIL w/ a win or a BOS loss, BOS with a win and MIL loss
3. MIL w/ a loss and BOS win, BOS w/ a win and MIL win or a loss and at least 1 PHI loss, PHI with 2 wins and a BOS loss
4. BOS w/ a loss and 2 PHI wins, PHI w/ a BOS win or a PHI loss and TOR loss, TOR w/ a win and 2 PHI losses
5. TOR w/ a loss or any PHI win
6. CHI

Play-in is still a mess but:
BKN is almost certainly finishing 7 or 8, and CAN'T finish 10, but there is a way to finish 9.
Cavs have inside track at 7 or 8, but can finish 9 or 10 in multiple scenarios
Hawks have 4 of 14 scenarios where they finish 8, rest are 9/10 CANNOT finish 7
Hornets have 1 of 14 where they finish 7, two where they finish 8, rest are 9/10.

So if you really want to see BKN play the 9/10 you need.... The Hawks to beat the Rockets, The Cavs to beat the Bucks, the Hornets to beat the Wiz, and the Nets to somehow lose to the tanking
Pacers.

EDIT- there is actually a 2nd way for BKN to finish 9, same as above but Hawks lose, tiebreaker goes to Hornets there too.
 
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