NBA trade season

CreedBratton

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Wait, am I missing why we are talking about Butler? Sounds like he's not gettable at the moment. They wanna move on from rondo, but heard nothing about Butler
 

Big John

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This makes no sense. You can't trade the pick because of the chance that player becomes an All-Star? Jimmy Butler is an All-Star in his prime on a below market deal RIGHT NOW. The likelihood of that pick becoming something as good as Butler isn't that great.
Except that Butler doesn't just cost you the pick. He costs the pick plus considerably more, starting with some combination of Crowder, Bradley, Jaylen Brown, and perhaps another pick or two, plus at least one player with an expiring deal as salary filler that cuts down your ability to do another deal.

I'd gladly part with both Brooklyn picks for superstar like Anthony Davis or Richard Westbrook.. Butler isn't in their league. He's an overachieving 6-6 player with a balky knee and in a year or two Jaylen Brown may be better.

Take away Bradley and Crowder and add Butler. Do the revamped Celtics beat Cleveland? I doubt it. Meanwhile, they've tossed away a shot at a top five player in the draft of the decade. If Butler coming out of Marquette were in the 2016 draft, he'd be taken somewhere in the middle of the second round.
 

gammoseditor

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Except that Butler doesn't just cost you the pick. He costs the pick plus considerably more, starting with some combination of Crowder, Bradley, Jaylen Brown, and perhaps another pick or two, plus at least one player with an expiring deal as salary filler that cuts down your ability to do another deal.

I'd gladly part with both Brooklyn picks for superstar like Anthony Davis or Richard Westbrook.. Butler isn't in their league. He's an overachieving 6-6 player with a balky knee and in a year or two Jaylen Brown may be better.

Take away Bradley and Crowder and add Butler. Do the revamped Celtics beat Cleveland? I doubt it. Meanwhile, they've tossed away a shot at a top five player in the draft of the decade. If Butler coming out of Marquette were in the 2016 draft, he'd be taken somewhere in the middle of the second round.
Why would Bradley and/or Crowder be in the trade? They aren't needed to make the money work. They have more value to the C's than the Bulls. Jerebko, Green, Brown, and Smart would lose minutes or be traded. I don't see Bradley or Crowder going anywhere.
 

amfox1

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If Butler is traded, the Celtics have to be the destination, it just makes too much sense for both sides. I think Crowder, Amir and this year's Nets pick would have to going, along with Rozier + a non-BK pick or two, though if Danny could work something around Crowder, Brown and BK2018 ++, he'd deserve GM of the year. Butler's contract would provide great flexibility.
Funny, I think the team that has to get him is Philly.
 

heavyde050

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The chances of Jaylen Brown being as good as Butler is now is miniscule. And the chances of that happening in a year or two are zero.
I agree completely that the odds of Brown being better than Butler in a year or two are super low (super close to impossible).

But the odds of Brown ever averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists by the time he is 27 (7 or 8 more seasons) is a little bit higher than minuscule.

Plus this is Jimmy's best performance of his career.

His career averages are 15, 5, and 3. I think Brown can do that in a few years.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/butleji01.html
 

the moops

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There have been 9 players to put up at least 25 points, 4 assists, 6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals over a full season.

Butler is at 25.2, 4.5, 6.8, 1.7

He is really fucking good. Jaylen Brown has a tiny chance of being as good as Butler. Tiny.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Looking at the next two drafts plus the Celtics young assets is tantalizing. However you also need context. As was mentioned upthread, the Cavs are a bit hobbled.

The Celtics, meanwhile are incredibly deep, they have good talent across their roster (I would argue that IT4 has made a huge leap into the top 15 and possibly top ten elite offensive players in the league). Were you able to add a Butler, they take a step forward and are the second best team in the East. Add Millsap and you have a squad that can push the Cavs to the limit and likely beats them. Furthermore, if you can hold on to two of Bradley, Smart and Crowder you have the defensive rotation to take away Curry and even Thompson for spots when playing Golden State.

Finally, our discussions around here about Davis, Giannis, Gobert, Wiggins, Levine, Russell, Parker etc shows that NBA talent evaluation and, ultimately, development are hit and miss for even the best organizations. Even if you have lots of talent, its still hard to win - see Minnesota or Milwaukee, the former who is headed for the lottery again and the latter who is very inconsistent.

Furthermore, talent develops non-linearly so there is a chance that a player may be drafted by Boston, show little development and go elsewhere to flourish, years later. Jaylen Brown may well be a poor man't Butler but he may also be a rich man's Evan Turner. We don't know and holding on to him because you are worried that he may be the former seems silly if you can get the real product.

Ainge has done a masterful job at acquiring assets and gets more mixed marks in talent evaluation. My sense, from his body of work, is that if he can pull together a talented roster to win now he will do so because of the risk involved in talent evaluation/development and the time it takes to build a competitive roster. The C's have that right now.
 

heavyde050

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There have been 9 players to put up at least 25 points, 4 assists, 6 rebounds, and 1.5 steals over a full season.

Butler is at 25.2, 4.5, 6.8, 1.7

He is really fucking good. Jaylen Brown has a tiny chance of being as good as Butler. Tiny.
I agree Butler is really good, but as mentioned in the first paragraph, he needs to keep this up a full season, not 36 games.
 

heavyde050

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Looking at the next two drafts plus the Celtics young assets is tantalizing. However you also need context. As was mentioned upthread, the Cavs are a bit hobbled.

The Celtics, meanwhile are incredibly deep, they have good talent across their roster (I would argue that IT4 has made a huge leap into the top 15 and possibly top ten elite offensive players in the league). Were you able to add a Butler, they take a step forward and are the second best team in the East. Add Millsap and you have a squad that can push the Cavs to the limit and likely beats them. Furthermore, if you can hold on to two of Bradley, Smart and Crowder you have the defensive rotation to take away Curry and even Thompson for spots when playing Golden State.

Finally, our discussions around here about Davis, Giannis, Gobert, Wiggins, Levine, Russell, Parker etc shows that NBA talent evaluation and, ultimately, development are hit and miss for even the best organizations. Even if you have lots of talent, its still hard to win - see Minnesota or Milwaukee, the former who is headed for the lottery again and the latter who is very inconsistent.

Furthermore, talent develops non-linearly so there is a chance that a player may be drafted by Boston, show little development and go elsewhere to flourish, years later. Jaylen Brown may well be a poor man't Butler but he may also be a rich man's Evan Turner. We don't know and holding on to him because you are worried that he may be the former seems silly if you can get the real product.

Ainge has done a masterful job at acquiring assets and gets more mixed marks in talent evaluation. My sense, from his body of work, is that if he can pull together a talented roster to win now he will do so because of the risk involved in talent evaluation/development and the time it takes to build a competitive roster. The C's have that right now.
This is an excellent post. My only question is how do the Celts get Millsap after trading everything for Butler?
I think Millsap and Butler give the C's a shot to maybe beat Cleveland.
Minus injuries, the Celts are probably not beating GSW this year.
That is the issue I see. Trade in all the assets for the hope of making the finals and more than likely losing as a beat case scenario.
When Durant signed with the Warriors, it made it better for the Celts to stay the course and use the Nets picks.
The Warriors are playing some transcendent basketball right now. The current iteration of the Celtics plus Butler is not beating them in a 7 game series.
 

cheech13

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Nobody was beating the Warriors last year until Cleveland did (and OKC almost did). If you gauge every deal from the perspective of "Does this move win us a championship" instead of "Does this deal get us a closer to a championship" you're likely going to be left in the middle of the pack for a long, long time. There is no blueprint for creating a title team; you take the opportunities presented to you. That doesn't mean throwing away all your assets in go-for-it-now moves, but it does mean everything can and should be on the table.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I agree completely that the odds of Brown being better than Butler in a year or two are super low (super close to impossible).

But the odds of Brown ever averaging 25 points, 7 rebounds and 4.5 assists by the time he is 27 (7 or 8 more seasons) is a little bit higher than minuscule.

Plus this is Jimmy's best performance of his career.

His career averages are 15, 5, and 3. I think Brown can do that in a few years.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/butleji01.html
I dunno dude, Brown's career averages are 5.1, 1.9 and 0.6.
 

heavyde050

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I dunno dude, Brown's career averages are 5.1, 1.9 and 0.6.
Yeah I get it. I was not trying to imply that Brown will be Butler.
That is wishful thinking.
I was only trying to point out the comparison of a in his prime All-Star to a rookie isn't really fair.
Jimmy Butler as a 22 year old rookie was 2.6, 1.3, and 0.3.
But Brown is a rookie on a good team.
To be fair Butler wasn't really Butler until this year. He has seemingly made "the leap".
 

heavyde050

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Nobody was beating the Warriors last year until Cleveland did (and OKC almost did). If you gauge every deal from the perspective of "Does this move win us a championship" instead of "Does this deal get us a closer to a championship" you're likely going to be left in the middle of the pack for a long, long time. There is no blueprint for creating a title team; you take the opportunities presented to you. That doesn't mean throwing away all your assets in go-for-it-now moves, but it does mean everything can and should be on the table.
Very true. Excellent post.
I guess the real question I have is does Butler get the C's closer to a championship than keeping the Brooklyn pick and I guess I would come down on the no side just slightly.
I think the Brooklyn pick should be on the table but not for Jimmy.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Funny, I think the team that has to get him is Philly.
Yeah I get it. I was not trying to imply that Brown will be Butler.
That is wishful thinking.
I was only trying to point out the comparison of a in his prime All-Star to a rookie isn't really fair.
Jimmy Butler as a 22 year old rookie was 2.6, 1.3, and 0.3.
But Brown is a rookie on a good team.
To be fair Butler wasn't really Butler until this year. He has seemingly made "the leap".
He's been good enough for the last three years to show that this season is a reasonable progression, and not some crazy outlier. Barring catastrophic injury, he's going to be much, much better at basketball than Jaylen Brown over the next four years.

And yeah, Korver is a good piece for the Cavs. Any word on who they sent back? I wonder if they had to give up Felder.
 

luckiestman

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That is a great trade for Cleveland. GS still has better talent but the pieces fit better in Ohio.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is an excellent post. My only question is how do the Celts get Millsap after trading everything for Butler?
I think Millsap and Butler give the C's a shot to maybe beat Cleveland.
Minus injuries, the Celts are probably not beating GSW this year.
That is the issue I see. Trade in all the assets for the hope of making the finals and more than likely losing as a beat case scenario.
When Durant signed with the Warriors, it made it better for the Celts to stay the course and use the Nets picks.
The Warriors are playing some transcendent basketball right now. The current iteration of the Celtics plus Butler is not beating them in a 7 game series.
Well you don't trade everything for Butler. You do one of the Brooklyn picks and players for Butler and a non-Brooklyn pick and player for Millsap. Brown, one of the stash bigs, a Brooklyn pick and the TWolves pick for Butler. Rozier, the other stash big and the Grizzlies 19 pick for Millsap. That probably doesn't get it done but thats the kind of framework Danny might start with.
 

amfox1

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Buster Olney the Lonely

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Great pickup for Cleveland. Bummer. I always liked Kyle Korver. Now I have to root against him.

Plus he must live in my neighborhood, since I've seen him on several occasions. Oh well.
 

heavyde050

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Well you don't trade everything for Butler. You do one of the Brooklyn picks and players for Butler and a non-Brooklyn pick and player for Millsap. Brown, one of the stash bigs, a Brooklyn pick and the TWolves pick for Butler. Rozier, the other stash big and the Grizzlies 19 pick for Millsap. That probably doesn't get it done but thats the kind of framework Danny might start with.
That sounds like a pretty good framework for a deal.
I would hope they could use the 2018 pick for Butler and keep the 2017 pick.
I am fine with trading Brown for Butler, but I wonder if the Bulls would rather have Bradley or Crowder.
 

Ed Hillel

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The Celtics have no chance to beat Cleveland this year, barring an injury to LBJ or Irving. I wouldn't trade anything of value (even Yabu) for a half season of Paul Millsap, which probably doesn't get them any further than they'd go without him.
 

BigSoxFan

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Per Woj, Toronto, Denver, Sacramento and New Orleans are among teams with an interest in Millsap.
So, basically every Western Conference team that is fighting for the right to get swept by Golden State and Toronto.
 

mcpickl

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That sounds like a pretty good framework for a deal.
I would hope they could use the 2018 pick for Butler and keep the 2017 pick.
I am fine with trading Brown for Butler, but I wonder if the Bulls would rather have Bradley or Crowder.
Why would they?

If they're trading Butler, it's to blow it up and start over.

They'd want the young high upside guys. Not guys who are probably finished products and not stars.

I'm skeptical Butler is available right now anyways. Ric Bucher would be an unusual source reporting on a whopper news story out of Chicago.

I'd need the Woj stamp to believe they're serious on moving Butler right now.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Celtics have no chance to beat Cleveland this year, barring an injury to LBJ or Irving. I wouldn't trade anything of value (even Yabu) for a half season of Paul Millsap, which probably doesn't get them any further than they'd go without him.
I don't know how much Celtics basketball or general NBA basketball you watch but I don't agree with your take. The Cs played the Cavs close at home and are the type of team that can give the Warriors trouble. Curry is stifled against a Bradley or Smart.

If the Cs were to add a Butler and/or Millsap they would almost certainly be in a position to take down Cleveland. They would have the pieces to make LeBron work and take Kyrie out of his game.

Whether Butler is actually available or whether the cost makes sense are other issues altogether.
 

CreedBratton

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The Celtics have no chance to beat Cleveland this year, barring an injury to LBJ or Irving. I wouldn't trade anything of value (even Yabu) for a half season of Paul Millsap, which probably doesn't get them any further than they'd go without him.
But, I think you take that chance if it's for the right price of course. I'm a fan of always going for it. Lebron tears his acl tomorrow and it's there for the taking.

Nuggets would seem to have better assets tho. They want to make playoffs badly.
 

amfox1

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Per Woj, Toronto, Denver, Sacramento and New Orleans are among teams with an interest in Millsap.
Michael Scotto ‏@MikeAScotto 40m40 minutes ago
Pelicans trade talks include offering their 2017 1st rounder (protected), Philly's 2017 2nd rounder (via Ish Smith deal), and salary fillers

For instance, Langston Galloway and Tyreke Evans would work for cap purposes.

Toronto's offer reportedly includes Terence Ross and Patrick Patterson and may or may not include one of their two low 1st round draft picks.

Sacto does not have a 1st round pick they can trade until 2021, so they may need to get a third team involved. Rudy Gay and Willie Cauley-Stein works for cap purposes.

Denver has two first round picks and is well below the cap, so they can basically absorb Millsap for a minimum salary. Plus, they have a bunch of young players filling out their roster.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Sacramento just throwing shit away at this point. I like Millsap fine for them, but there's a 0% chance he resigns there and a team that bereft of draft picks shouldn't be sending out assets for rentals.

New Orleans, on the other hand, has pretty much no other path to pairing a good player with Anthony Davis, so they make a lot of sense to me. I suspect Atlanta can get them to overpay just for the right to own Millsap's Bird Rights. The Pelicans are in a situation where they'd basically have no choice but to max out a 31 year old Millsap.
 

BigSoxFan

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And Millsap turns 32 in Feb. I wouldn't want to max out his age 33-37 seasons. Will be interesting to see what Atlanta can ultimately get for him.
 

bakahump

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Sacto needs a 3rd team with a 1st. Boston has an extra first....Thier own.

What can they steal from Sacto for the 1st this year? Cauley-Stein is a pipe dream right?

I might take the 2021 1st. Just keeps the resources rolling in for danny.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sacto needs a 3rd team with a 1st. Boston has an extra first....Thier own.

What can they steal from Sacto for the 1st this year? Cauley-Stein is a pipe dream right?

I might take the 2021 1st. Just keeps the resources rolling in for danny.
We only have 1 pick this year - Brooklyn's. But I would love to figure out a way to get SoSH binky WCS.
 

nighthob

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Boston has players and they can get the Hawks a draft pick as part of a Millsap package. WCS fits with Horford, given the latter's shooting game on offense and Cauley-Stein's defensive mobility. Honestly I'd rather have Cauley-Stein than Millsap.
 

Twalk

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apologize to derail the trade topic but figured this might be interesting to some. My friend trains Korver in Santa Barbara. You couldn't meet a nicer guy that has a more insane training regiment. For fun Korver and a few other guys do what is called a "Misogi" at least once a year. Cool article below on it and some history behind the Misogi's origin in Japan. Less pc version explaining it in quotes below by my friend. I was watching from the beach as the did a 5K underwater passing a 85 pound boulder. This water is freezing and they had to free dive to get down and do the handoffs in a relay format of sorts: Insane to watch.

For 15 years, Elliott thought about what his friend called misogi. “We’ve evolved with a desire to challenge ourselves,” he says. “It was necessary to get the tribe over the pass in winter, to hunt the mammoth. Now we live in the center of the table. We’re afraid to fail. Fuck that! How can you reach the edge of your potential without risking failure?”

Elliott gradually honed his own version of misogi, which would require completing only once or twice a year. “If it’s hard enough,” he believes, “the lesson will last.”

“This is about testing your abilities in a foreign environment,” he says. “The more blind, the more bold and adventurous the effort.” There’s no entry fee. No spectators. “It’s not a ride at Disneyland or a Tough Mudder,” he says. “It’s a personal quest designed by you. And it’s really fucking hard. You have a 50 percent chance of success, at best.” Regardless of the outcome—the thinking goes—you’ll realize your potential.
https://www.outsideonline.com/1928041/one-day-year-fitness-plan