NCAA Tournament Gambling Thread

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Figured there would be enough action on this tournament to have a thread for it, and I didn't want it to disappear over in the Fiskful of Dollars forum that nobody uses. Obviously everyone is going to have brackets, so this isn't really just for that kind of thing, but rather, the individual game bets, and more interesting to me, prop bets.
 
Right now, my site has just about every bet imaginable.  The first bet I've made is a small wager on the O/U of number of wins by the 2 seeds in the tournament.  I went under 8.5.  The line on the 1 seeds is 11.  You can also bet the O/U for wins by each conference, with the Big Ten being the highest at 10.5, followed by the ACC at 9.5, and at the bottom, you find the Mountain West at 2.5.  I'm thinking about taking a flyer on the over on the A10 at 4.
 
You can bet the money line on each of the first 3 seeds in every region making it to the sweet sixteen.  For example, Florida is -450 to make it (highest of anyone), while +300 to not make it.  Actually, Virginia is the highest to make it at -455, +305.  On the other end, Iowa State is even money to make it, and -145 to get booted in the first two rounds.
 
They have head to head matchups on who will get further, ie. Duke/Michigan, Villanova/Wisconsin, Syracuse/UCLA, with the money line changing depending on who the favorite is (although Duke/Michigan is even money).
 
Florida is the favorite to win it all at +400, with Michigan State at +500, Louisville at +450 and Arizona at +600.  Personally, I think Virginia at +1000, Syracuse at +1300 and Kansas at +850 are decent odds.  Wisconsin and Villanova are at +1500 each, and Ohio State is interesting at +5500. 
 
You can also bet on which team will make it out of each region.  I personally like the lack of respect that Wichita State is getting, and might throw a small bet on them at +300, whereas Louisville is even money, Duke is +250 and Michigan is +400 in the same region. 
 
There are others like which #1 seed will be ousted first and which conference will win the championship, but I figure this is enough to get the discussion rolling.  Let me know what you all think, and if anyone is curious about any odds, just post them and I'll look them up.
 
 
 

DukeSox

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Deathofthebambino said:
 
Florida is the favorite to win it all at +400, with Michigan State at +500, Louisville at +450 and Arizona at +600.  Personally, I think Virginia at +1000, Syracuse at +1300 and Kansas at +850 are decent odds.  Wisconsin and Villanova are at +1500 each, and Ohio State is interesting at +5500. 
 
 
So Obama just went with Vegas.  Nice.
 

DukeSox

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"trying" being the operative word there ;)
 

Old Fart Tree

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Good burn dude!
 
Regarding the actual gambling, I like Stanford less and less and less, but I do like the under.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Won a little on Tennessee +1.5 last night.
 
 
Took MSU to make Sweet 16  -250
 
Teased:
Oregon  -1.5
MSU -10.5
NC State +7.5
 
ND State moneyline +150
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Besides some of the props I mentioned above, I got into an interesting NCAA pool.  Very different from your normal brackets.  You pick 10 teams and get points based on the number of wins they have and their seed.  So, if you take a 10 seed and they win the first game, you get 10 points.  Alternatively, if you take a 1 seed and they win the whole thing, you'll only get a total of 6 points for them.  Obviously, this makes it imperative to pick higher seeds.  Last year's winner had something like 110 pints, IIRC.
 
I went with the following:

Providence (11 seed)
Duke 3
Michigan State 4
VCU 5
SF Austin 12 (I took VCU and SFU because I believe whoever wins the first game has a good shot of winning their second round matchup against UCLA or Tulsa)
New Mexico 7
Oklahoma 5 (although I kind of wish I could take this one back)
Louisville 4
San Diego State 4
Baylor 6
 
My average seed  was 6.1, whereas I think the average across the pool was around 7.3.  It would be nice if you could hit all of the 6-11 seed winners and then maybe have a couple make it to the sweet sixteen, but obviously, that's a lot easier said than done.  I figured I'd take a good mix of those teams, while sprinkling in the higher seeds that I think have the biggest chance of going deep like Duke, MSU and Louisville (MSU and Louisville were by far the two biggest choices).  Anyway, what do you guys think?  Who would you have gone with?
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Welp, as I posted earlier, I wish I could have switched out that Oklahoma pick.  I had a bad feeling about this one.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Jeff Van GULLY said:
Won a little on Tennessee +1.5 last night.
 
 
Took MSU to make Sweet 16  -250
 
Teased:
Oregon  -1.5
MSU -10.5
NC State +7.5
 
ND State moneyline +150
 
Not a bad night.
 
Teased:
 
St. Joe's +9
Stanford/UNM  under 141
OK State +1
 
and
 
Tennessee Pick
Creighton -9.5
Providence +9
 
 
 
Memphis -155
 

RG33

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My Friday bets:

Ok State -2
Nebraska +4.5
UNC - 3.5 (sacrilege, but business is business)
Stephen Austin +6
Arizona -20
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Jeff Van GULLY said:
 
Not a bad night.
 
Teased:
 
St. Joe's +9
Stanford/UNM  under 141
OK State +1
 
and
 
Tennessee Pick
Creighton -9.5
Providence +9
 
 
 
Memphis -155
 
 
OK State was a sorry bunch and it was an awful game to watch.
 
 
 
I like most of the favorites today but put a little on ND State's moneyline (+155).
 
Teased:
Syracuse -4
Michigan -1.5
Michigan State -4
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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I have a parlay going with Saint Louis +9.5, Texas +4.5, and Michigan State -6.5.
 
Also have Syracuse -7, San Diego State/NDSU Over 125.5, San Diego State -3.
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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Dunno what the best thread for this is, but I thought it should be pointed out that SI's picks (in the print edition, dunno about online) have been incredible so far. 28/32 in the first round, 8/8 today. 
 

Mugsy's Jock

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I wasn't watching it closely....for the gamblers out there, did Oregon's technical foul flurry at the end of the Wisconsin game throw a sure Duck cover the other way?
 

johnmd20

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Mugsys Jock said:
I wasn't watching it closely....for the gamblers out there, did Oregon's technical foul flurry at the end of the Wisconsin game throw a sure Duck cover the other way?
 
Yes. 5.5 spread.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Jeff Van GULLY said:
 
 
OK State was a sorry bunch and it was an awful game to watch.
 
 
 
I like most of the favorites today but put a little on ND State's moneyline (+155).
 
Teased:
Syracuse -4
Michigan -1.5
Michigan State -4
 
Tough day yesterday. 
 
Teased:
Tennessee -4
Stanford +11
North Carolina +6
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Yep, I had free throws at end of games cost me two covers yesterday.  The foul by Oregon with .6 seconds left cost them the cover on the +5.5 spread.  I also had a parlay later on with the over in the Villanova game, which covered easily (even though they had only 49 points in the first half) and the second half under in the Michigan State/Harvard game.   The O/U for the second half in the MSU game was 74.5.  The free throws at the very end made the total 75.  That and the Ducks non-cover were brutal, and led me to take today off.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Only a true gambler will understand the ass-raping that just happened to me. 
 
Last night, I bet a 3 team parlay for $100, pays $600.  I took San Diego State +7.5, Florida -4.5 and Michigan -2.5. 
 
I hit the first two, so I decided to hedge it a little, so I took Tennessee against Michigan for $200 today.  I got Tennessee at +3.5.
 
So, I could hit the middle and win both bets.  In other words, if Tennessee loses by exactly 3, I win $800.  If Tennessee loses by more than 3, I win $400.  If Tennessee loses by 2 or less or wins, I win $100.
 
Michigan is up by 1 with 2.1 seconds left and gets fouled.  The guy gets fouled is an 82% free throw shooter and makes the first one.  He rims out the second one, and Michigan wins by 2.  I win $100. 
 
Good thing I hedged, but fuck me.  That second free throw was halfway down and came out.  Someone out there hates me.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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HAHAHAHA.   It gets even better.  I bet $25 that DeAndre Kane would score over 17 points.  He's at 16 and just bricked two free throws with 20 seconds left.   Good times.