NFC Playoff Picture

DanoooME

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Tracking the other side of playoff life:

1. Dallas 9-1 (Was, @Min, @NYG, TB, Det, @Phi)
2. Seattle 7-2-1 (@TB, Car, @GB, LA, Ari, @SF)
3. Detroit 6-4 (Min, @NO, Chi, @NYG, @Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 6-4 (Ari, KC, @LA, SF, @Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 7-3 (@Cle, @Pit, Dal, Det, @Phi, @Was)
6. Washington 6-3-1 (@Dal, @Ari, @Phi, Car, @Chi, NYG)
7. Minnesota 6-4 (@Det, Dal, @Jax, Ind, @GB, Chi)
8. Tampa Bay 5-5 (Sea, @SD, NO, @Dal, @NO, Car)
9. Philadelphia 5-5 (GB, @Cin, Was, @Bal, NYG, Dal)
10. Arizona 4-5-1 (@Atl, Was, @Mia, NO, @Sea, @LA)

11-14 Green Bay, Carolina, New Orleans, Los Angeles all 4-6
15. Chicago 2-8
16. San Francisco 1-9

There's going to be a lot of bloodletting down the stretch. Dallas is obviously in the best position, but have to face all contenders the rest of the way. Only 6 of the 10 have to play an AFC team and the Giants are the only ones to play two. The NFC East will sort itself out with 6 games remaining between all of them. If Washington upsets Dallas on Thanksgiving, that will open things up a bit. 8 of the top 10 play each other this week and Philly has GB, who is on the fringes of the playoff race, so this is going to be a big week towards the playoff chase.
 

johnmd20

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I think it was kind of you to list Chicago and SF at all. A very inclusive message.

The Giants really have had a cream puff schedule. And now they are going to Cleveland, so they should be 8-3 and then things get tough down the stretch. The Cowboys do look like they are for real, so they should walk away with the NFC east crown.

That said, Sattle is still in the running for home field and a bye. It'll be down to those two, though. Atlanta and Detroit(and the Gints and Skins, for that matter) just aren't good enough to catch the Cowboys and keep pace with Seattle.

After that, you're right, it's going to be awesome down the stretch, teams just living and dying with every game.
 

DanoooME

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1. Dallas 10-1 (@Min, @NYG, TB, Det, @Phi)
2. Seattle 7-3-1 (Car, @GB, LA, Ari, @SF)
3. Detroit 7-4 (@NO, Chi, @NYG, @Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 7-4 (KC, @LA, SF, @Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 8-3 (@Pit, Dal, Det, @Phi, @Was)
6. Washington 6-4-1 (@Ari, @Phi, Car, @Chi, NYG)
7. Minnesota 6-5 (Dal, @Jax, Ind, @GB, Chi)
8. Tampa Bay 6-5 (@SD, NO, @Dal, @NO, Car)
9. New Orleans 5-6 (Det, @TB, @Ari, TB, @Atl)
10. Green Bay 5-6 (Hou, Sea, @Chi, Min, @Det)
11. Philadelphia 5-6 (@Cin, Was, @Bal, NYG, Dal)
12. Arizona 4-6-1 (Was, @Mia, NO, @Sea, @LA)

13-14 Carolina, Los Angeles 4-7
15. Chicago 2-9
16. San Francisco 1-10

Barring a collapse, Dallas has locked up the #1 seed. The Giants have a solid grip on the #5 seed. Beyond that, most of it is up for grabs. Seattle has a pretty solid hold on the NFC West, a 3 game lead with 5 to go. Their magic number over LA is 2, over Ari is 3. Big battles for the South and North that will likely come down to the wire.
 

Michelle34B

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Aug 2, 2006
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1. Dallas 10-1 has had some struggles this year against teams that have good offensive line play(Redskins, Eagles, Steelers). They can be had on their defensive front seven, but they usually have the lead.

2. Seattle 7-3-1 has to overcome their offensive line, highlighted in the Tampa Bay game. As DanoooME said, they have a solid 4 game lead with 5 games left to play, and 3 of their 5 remaining games are at home.

3. Detroit 7-4 had 1 forced turnover in their 1-3 start, and 10 forced turnovers in their current 6-1 run. They still have home games against Chicago and Green Bay remaining, opportunities to avenge earlier losses this season.

4. Atlanta 7-4 has 24 sacks so far this year, with 2015 first round pick Vic Beasley getting 8.5 in the past 8 weeks. This year's 1st round pick Keanu Neal, along with LBs Deion Jones and Devondre Campbell are some of the young playmakers on Dan Quinn's defense. Atlanta has Tampa Bay one game back, and New Orleans two games back. They need to create some distance before the last two weeks of division games.

5.. Giants 8-3 will have their first non-losing season since 2012. Too many three-and-outs by this offense have hamstrung a very good defense. They've been on the short end of time of possession in nearly every game this year. Eli has had 5 game winning drives in the 4th quarter and overtime, and Beckham can take anything the distance.

I'll try to come back and finish this. Big games this week for the playoffs.

Washington@Arizona,
Eagles@Bengals
Lions@Saints
Tampa Bay@San Diego
 

j-man

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i Say

1 Dal but could lose to the giants in div round
2 Sea good shape to get to the NFCGC
3 ATL
4DET
5NYG
6 ? i am going to put TB here if they beat SD should be 10-6

dallas or seattle should win the NFC
 

mauf

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1. Dallas 10-1 (@Min, @NYG, TB, Det, @Phi)
2. Seattle 7-3-1 (Car, @GB, LA, Ari, @SF)
3. Detroit 7-4 (@NO, Chi, @NYG, @Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 7-4 (KC, @LA, SF, @Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 8-3 (@Pit, Dal, Det, @Phi, @Was)
6. Washington 6-4-1 (@Ari, @Phi, Car, @Chi, NYG)
7. Minnesota 6-5 (Dal, @Jax, Ind, @GB, Chi)
8. Tampa Bay 6-5 (@SD, NO, @Dal, @NO, Car)
9. New Orleans 5-6 (Det, @TB, @Ari, TB, @Atl)
10. Green Bay 5-6 (Hou, Sea, @Chi, Min, @Det)
11. Philadelphia 5-6 (@Cin, Was, @Bal, NYG, Dal)
12. Arizona 4-6-1 (Was, @Mia, NO, @Sea, @LA)

13-14 Carolina, Los Angeles 4-7
15. Chicago 2-9
16. San Francisco 1-10

Barring a collapse, Dallas has locked up the #1 seed. The Giants have a solid grip on the #5 seed. Beyond that, most of it is up for grabs. Seattle has a pretty solid hold on the NFC West, a 3 game lead with 5 to go. Their magic number over LA is 2, over Ari is 3. Big battles for the South and North that will likely come down to the wire.
Great analysis.

Gotta love Atlanta's remaining schedule, even with the tough game this weekend -- they'll pull away from TB and challenge the Seahawks for the bye.

Good chance the NFCN comes down to GB @ DET Week 17 -- for all their struggles, the Packers only need to gain one game on DET between now and then, and they've got the easier schedule.
 

Michelle34B

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6. Washington 6-4-1 has Kirk Cousins, November's NFC offensive player of the month. He had a bye the first week of November. Their offense has been that good. Garcon, Reed, Crowder, Jackson, and Davis make up the receiving end of this multi-talented passing attack. Trent Williams is another star on offense, with their entire offensive line and depth (partly due to Williams' current suspension) have been great this year. Washington has struggled in the red zone and defending the run this year.

8. Minnesota 6-6 can't score. Detroit essentially has a three game lead over them, since they beat them both times this year. Their 1-3 division and 4-6 conference record leave little hope for tiebreakers.

7. Tampa Bay 6-5 has beaten the Chiefs and Seahawks the past two weeks at home. They had lost their first four home games this year. Now they need to prove they can go out West and beat the Chargers.

9. New Orleans 5-6 started this season 0-3. So did the Browns, Jaguars, and Bears. They're scoring 34 ppg at home, and a win against Detroit this week can give them a tiebreaker against Detroit should another team win the NFC North. New Orleans and Tampa Bay have their two game set to play in the final month, which should decide their playoff standing.

10. Green Bay 5-6 beat Detroit earlier this year, so they just need to make up one game before their rematch at Ford Field to end the season. Green Bay would own the tiebreaker with a win in the season finale. I don't think Minnesota will be much of a factor, but Green Bay just needs to win against Minnesota and another divisional game to won the tiebreaker against Minnesota. Detroit has three difficult road games at New Orleans, New York Football Giants, and Dallas Cowboys. Green Bay has Houston, Seattle, and Minnesota at home, and Chicago on the road before the last game at Ford Field.

11. Philadelphia 5-6 has all three remaining division games at home. That's the good news. They've dug themselves a hole with tiebreakers in the division (0-3 so far) and the conference (3-6). New Orleans has the better conference record, and Green Bay has beaten them head-to-head. The only team they own a tiebreaker against is their win against Minnesota. Tampa Bay and Atlanta would have to lose all three of their remaining conference games to lose a tiebreaker with Philadelphia. They need to win five straight, starting with @Cincinnati this week.

12. Arizona 4-6-1 has to win at home against the Redskins. Larry Fitzgerald is seven receptions away from becoming 3rd all-time. I can see a game with Fitzgerald getting a lot of targets out of the slow, and David Johnson getting 30 carries (if Bruce Arians will give him 30 carries) against Washington's poor run defense. They need to win five games in a row.
 

DanoooME

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1. Dallas 11-1 (@NYG, TB, Det, @Phi)
2. Seattle 8-3-1 (@GB, LA, Ari, @SF)
3. Detroit 8-4 (Chi, @NYG, @Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 7-5 (@LA, SF, @Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 8-4 (Dal, Det, @Phi, @Was)
6. Tampa Bay 7-5 (NO, @Dal, @NO, Car)
7. Washington 6-5-1 (@Phi, Car, @Chi, NYG)
8. Minnesota 6-6 (@Jax, Ind, @GB, Chi)
9. Green Bay 6-6 (Sea, @Chi, Min, @Det)
10. Arizona 5-6-1 (@Mia, NO, @Sea, @LA)
11. New Orleans 5-7 (@TB, @Ari, TB, @Atl)
12. Philadelphia 5-7 (Was, @Bal, NYG, Dal)

13-14 Carolina, Los Angeles 4-8
15. Chicago 3-9
16. San Francisco 1-11

The top 3 seeds hold serve and Dallas clinched a playoff spot this week. Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win this week over the Giants. They can't clinch a bye yet. Seattle's magic number for clinching the NFC West is 2 over Arizona, as their win and LA's loss eliminated the Rams from the division title, but the Rams still have a long shot at a wild card berth. Detroit took a commanding 2 game lead with 4 games to go in the NFC North. They have the tiebreaker over Minnesota but do not against GB. Atlanta holds the division record tiebreaker over Tampa Bay right now, since they split their two games. New Orleans has a small hope of contending with 2 games against TB and one game against Atl left. Carolina is on life support, having a slightly better chance than the Rams of making the playoffs. The wild card race is a mess right now, with everyone but SF still in theoretical contention.
 

BigJimEd

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Dallas can clinch the NFC East with a win this week over the Giants. They can't clinch a bye yet
Wouldn't they clinch a bye with a win and either Seattle or Detroit loss? could clinch #1 seed with both losing?
 

DanoooME

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Wouldn't they clinch a bye with a win and either Seattle or Detroit loss? could clinch #1 seed with both losing?
Yes, that's true. And that's what I get for figuring this stuff in the morning while doing real work. I had it that way at first and then changed it.
 

Gunfighter 09

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If Dallas wins their next two, they will have nothing to play for when they face the Lions in week 16. That could help decide the North.
 

SawxSince67

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The little town of Bethlehem.
SEA appears to have two "cake" games and three of the DAL games have playoff implications for their opponents, then a division game.

In sum-it's not fair. #germannihilists

Edit-what GF09 says makes sense. Will Romo get an audition for his next team? Certainly, the Sanchise won't make an appearance.
 

Bosoxen

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Will Romo get an audition for his next team?
This got extensive play on local sports talk radio yesterday. Not necessarily as an audition but to give him a chance to knock off the rust (just in case they find themselves in an emergency that requires breaking the glass). If the Cowboys clinch early, there's no reason not to give Romo significant snaps. I disagree with those who said he should start, simply because Prescott is a rookie, after all, and he still needs as many reps as possible.

On the other hand, three of their next four games are against possible playoff opponents, so it's a defensible argument to give them as little up-close experience with Prescott as possible. But all of that is for a later discussion. Gotta win Sunday to make any of it a possibility.
 

TFisNEXT

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The Giants were doing it with mirrors and magic wands with JPP. Without him, they are in serious trouble.
Gmen have leaned on their defense a lot this year with their sputtering offense continuing to look lost. That injury is a big deal.
 

DanoooME

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1. Dallas 11-2 (TB, Det, @Phi)
2. Detroit 9-4 (@NYG, @Dal, GB)
3. Seattle 8-4-1 (LA, Ari, @SF)
4. Atlanta 8-5 (SF, @Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 9-4 (Det, @Phi, @Was)
6. Tampa Bay 8-5 (@Dal, @NO, Car)
7. Washington 7-5-1 (Car, @Chi, NYG)
8. Minnesota 7-6 (Ind, @GB, Chi)
9. Green Bay 7-6 (@Chi, Min, @Det)
10. Arizona 5-7-1 (NO, @Sea, @LA)

11. New Orleans 5-8
12. Philadelphia 5-8
13 Carolina 5-8
14. Los Angeles 4-9
15. Chicago 3-10
16. San Francisco 1-12

I think we can reasonably remove NO and Philly from the ranks of contenders, even though any of the 5-8 teams may have a mathematical chance of still making the playoffs. Arizona only stays because they still have a mathematical chance of winning the NFC West by winning out and Seattle losing out. Detroit jumps to the #2 seed with Seattle's loss to Green Bay, which keeps GB in the playoff hunt. Detroit clinches the North with a win and a GB loss. They own the H2H tiebreaker over Minnesota.The Giants now have the H2H tiebreaker over Dallas, so if they win out and Dallas goes 1-2 or worse, then the Giants are NFC East champs. Dallas clinches the NFC East with a win and a Giants loss. They can clinch the #1 seed with a win and a Detroit loss. Atlanta and Tampa Bay will battle it out for the NFC South, Atlanta has the tiebreaker on common opponents.
 

InstaFace

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They're saying on the broadcast tonight that Carolina still has some crazy inside-straight scenario to make the playoffs if they win tonight, which involves the Redskins getting a second tie among other things. Anyone got the formula on that one?
 

Michelle34B

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It would mean Carolina, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, Minnesota and Washington at 7-7-2 all finished at .500 records for a tie. Divisonal tiebreakers would go to Carolina over Tampa Bay by conference record, and Minnesota over Green Bay in head to head.

That would set up a three way tie between Carolina, Minnesota, and Washington. They need Washington, because Carolina lost to Minnesota this year. The three way tie gives each team a 1-1 record against one another with Washington added. The next tiebreaker is conference record, which Carolina would win.
 

DanoooME

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1. Dallas 12-2 (Det, @Phi)
2. Seattle 9-4-1 (Ari, @SF)
3. Detroit 9-5 (@Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 9-5 (@Car, NO)
5. NY Giants 10-4 (@Phi, @Was)
6. Green Bay 8-6 (Min, @Det)
7. Tampa Bay 8-6 (@NO, Car)
8. Washington 7-6-1 (@Chi, NYG)
9. Minnesota 7-7 (@GB, Chi)
10. New Orleans 6-8 (TB, @Atl)
11. Carolina 6-8 (Atl, @TB)

12. Arizona 5-8-1
13. Philadelphia 5-9
14. Los Angeles 4-10
15. Chicago 3-11
16. San Francisco 1-13

Dallas can clinch the East and HFA throughout with a win over Detroit or a Giants loss or tie. Giants clinch a playoff berth with a win or tie. Washington slips out of the #6 seed with their loss to Carolina. Seattle clinched the West with their win over LA and have the inside track on a bye if they win out. Detroit wins the division with a win and a GB loss this week or a win over GB in week 17. Green Bay wins the North by winning out or beating Detroit in week 17 if Detroit also loses to Dallas week 16 even if the Pack loses to Minnesota. Minnesota has been eliminated for a division title based on division record (which is based on a 3 team tie at 9-7, GB has the best div record at 4-2 vs. 3-3 for the others) but still has a shot at a wild card. Atlanta can only be caught by Tampa Bay in the division, as the Bucs win a tiebreaker with the Falcons. New Orleans and Carolina both won this week, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive for a wild card. Arizona and Philadelphia were officially eliminated.

New Orleans, Carolina and Minnesota can be eliminated from the playoff race with losses. Washington can be eliminated with a loss and wins by GB and TB.
 
3. Detroit 9-5 (@Dal, GB)
4. Atlanta 9-5 (@Car, NO)
FYI, you've got Detroit and Atlanta backwards - Atlanta currently owns the tiebreaker for the 3 seed (and will continue to do so barring an unlikely series of events).

My crazy prediction: Seattle surprisingly drops one of its last two, most likely this week against Arizona, but neither Atlanta nor (more obviously) Detroit are able to take advantage and grab the 2 seed from them.
 

DanoooME

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1. Dallas 13-2 (@Phi)
2. Atlanta 10-5 (NO)
3. Seattle 9-5-1 (@SF)
4. Green Bay 9-6 (@Det)
5. NY Giants 10-5 (@Was)
6. Detroit 9-6 (GB)
7. Washington 8-6-1 (NYG)
8. Tampa Bay 8-7 (Car)

9. Minnesota 7-8
10. New Orleans 7-8
11. Arizona 6-8-1
12. Carolina 6-9
13. Philadelphia 6-9
14. Los Angeles 4-11
15. Chicago 3-12
16. San Francisco 2-13

A couple more eliminations this week (Minnesota, NO, Carolina) leaves us with half the field in playoff contention. Dallas has locked up everything. If Atlanta beats NO, they lock up the #2 seed. If they lose or tie and Seattle wins, Seattle takes back the #2 seed. Detroit takes on Green Bay for the NFC North. The winner is the #4 seed unless Seattle loses, then they get the #3 spot. The loser is out if Washington beats the Giants. Washington only gets screwed if the Det/GB game ends in a tie, leaving GB as division champ and Detroit beats out Washington based on head to head result. Giants are locked into the #5 seed

Tampa Bay has a mathematical chance, but they need 7 different things to happen to have a chance including a tie in the Washington/Giants game. They need to create a 3 way tie between themselves at 9-7, Washington at 8-6-2 and Green Bay at 9-7 and have Seattle lose to SF, the Eagles lose to Dallas and a couple of AFC games go their way to get the strength of victory tie breaker over the other two.
 

E5 Yaz

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Barring a Seattle dumpster fire against SF, we're looking at the GB-Detroit winner hosting the NYG, and the GB-Detroit loser or Washington headed to Seattle
 

BigSoxFan

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Barring a Seattle dumpster fire against SF, we're looking at the GB-Detroit winner hosting the NYG, and the GB-Detroit loser or Washington headed to Seattle
Looking ahead (and assuming GB beats DET next week), you're looking at Divisional Round matchups of:

Packers/Giants at Cowboys
Seahawks at Falcons

Wouldn't be disappointed with that.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Am I correct that Green Bay derives zero value from a win vs a tie on Sunday night? It appears to me that a tie puts them as the division winner, in the exact same seed as if they won the game, regardless of what everyone else does.

For Detroit it's the difference between a division win and a 2/3/4 seed vs a 6 seed if the Giants beat Washington, or out of the playoffs is Washington wins.

If Washington wins, you might see both teams playing for a tie.
 

dcmissle

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The interesting action will be on this side.

Unless the Giants get their Tom Coughlin on, their key starters sit. And why would NY want to knock Wash out of the playoff field? Which gives Washington a decided edge at home, and barring improbable things, sets GB at Det up as an elimination game.

Unless, of course, they tie -- and their game will be last, with 8:30 start.

So if they are tied at the end of regulation in Detroit ...
 

dcmissle

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At the very end of the extra period, yes.

Earlier -- lots of running, relatively little passing, and no high risk throws.

If you allow a run to be broken or a special teams fail, shame on you ... but otherwise ...

Have not dug deeply enough for the seeding implications, incentives if any ... but by 11:00 pm Sunday night, which is when this would start to play out, they would be clear.
 

axx

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It's easier to tie now with the new OT rule too. In Seattle-Arizona's tie they traded FGs. After the second one, half of the OT was over. Be pretty easy at that point to wink-wink-nod-nod play for the tie.
 

snowmanny

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The way you play for the tie is to do the opposite of whatever the hell Gary Kubiak did.
 

Red Right Ankle

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When you send your guys to the coin flip, you agree with the other captains to a tie. Then three and out every drive.
 

ilol@u

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I would LOVE to see a watered down tie-game between GB/DET in which you can tell they have no urgency to play to win. Just to see Roger's head explode.

Integrity!
 

CantKeepmedown

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I would LOVE to see a watered down tie-game between GB/DET in which you can tell they have no urgency to play to win. Just to see Roger's head explode.

Integrity!
It obviously would never happen, but what if each team just took a knee on every down? 3 knees, punt, repeat. Is there something in the rule book saying you can't do that? Could the sheriff levy out huge fines to both teams?
 

axx

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It obviously would never happen, but what if each team just took a knee on every down? 3 knees, punt, repeat. Is there something in the rule book saying you can't do that? Could the sheriff levy out huge fines to both teams?
Goodell would suspend Brady another 4 games.
 

Curt S Loew

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It obviously would never happen, but what if each team just took a knee on every down? 3 knees, punt, repeat. Is there something in the rule book saying you can't do that? Could the sheriff levy out huge fines to both teams?
The sheriff can do whatever he wants.
 

Phil Plantier

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It would never happen, but it's fun to speculate. I think the outrage would be deflategate-level, both teams would be excluded from the playoffs, Washington and, I guess, Minnesota, would get their spots, lots of draft pick losses, congressional investigations.

Even the canonical World Cup example provoked changes, and that was 35 years ago. NBC has millions of dollars invested in this one game on Sunday, and the possible precedent of a negotiated outcome would be repulsive to them and the public.
 

hbk72777

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Barring a Seattle dumpster fire against SF, we're looking at the GB-Detroit winner hosting the NYG, and the GB-Detroit loser or Washington headed to Seattle

I like this scenario.

Giants suck in Seattle. Though Eli did go nuts in the 4th quarter back in the '06 loss. We need that Eli
 

Erik Hanson's Hook

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I will echo a few other posters in saying that I have a funny feeling about the Atlanta Falcons this year. There is no scientific reason behind this, just a feeling that they will shed their rep as a team that strings off winning seasons, then loses early in the playoffs (almost like an NFC version of Houston). This is the year they prove of all the doubters wrong - I've watched them a little bit and they seem like they play with a chip on their shoulder. Matty Ice has been is in his ninth year, and should be ready for his moment.

That being said, the NFC playoffs are going to be incredibly tough this year, with a reborn Dallas team, Seattle's program still chugging, the NYG staging their tri-annual smoke and mirrors show, and Aaron Rodgers heating up in GB.

Should be fun.