NFC Wild Card Matchup, #3 Skins host #6 Lions

What's the Line for this Game

  • Skins -10

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins-9

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins-8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins-7

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins-5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins-4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+4

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+5

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+6

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+7

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Skins+9

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    13

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Have at it.  If the two teams matching up could repost their PFF stats and their thoughts on the matchup to kick things off, that would be dandy.  I'm putting the poll up now (only 20 choices are possible, which is why it only goes up to +9) but people may want to wait to vote until a little discussion has occurred.  I'm making the voting public so that if something crazy happens we can see why.  Winner to be determined via powerball (see playoff proposal post).
 

Dollar

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2006
11,086
Quick breakdown screenshot of this matchup, for the lazy among us:
 
 

mascho

Kane is Able
SoSH Member
Nov 30, 2007
14,952
Silver Spring, Maryland
Dollar, thanks for doing that.
 
When we started our year in review stuff, I said a few times that the Skins were likely a division winner who lost a home playoff game.  Looking at the early voting here, it seems most would agree with that.  But looking at this matchup (and with with the caveat that yes, I am advocating for my team) the Skins win this game and it likely will not be close.
 
If you, like me, think games are dictated in the trenches, I think the Lions have a tough matchup here.  When they have the ball, Joe Thomas cannot block everyone.  That is a weak interior offensive line that will have trouble handling Richardson and Fairley.  Thomas and Hardy will be a battle up front, and Thomas might get the better of Hardy, but the other three guys up front for us are gonna eat, and eat well.  So we won't need to blitz to generate pressure on Tannehill, which is a good thing because splits-wise, Tannehill actually does well against the blitz?  What he doesn't do well against is a four man line.  Last season he had a 75.3 rating against 4 man fronts.  (Splits here.)
 
When Detroit runs, we're not going to completely shut down Shady, but Hardy (PFF +12.5) and Richardson (PFF +34.0) were both beasts in the run game (those are their run defense PFF grades alone).  Richardson is definitely going to draw double-teams in the run game, which allows Ryans and Ogletree room to flow freely to the ball carrier.  There will be rare moments when Shady finds guys blocked at the second level.  Most of the time he's going to have to win one on one battles against our LBs to break big plays, and we'll take our chances that we will win most of them.  
 
D-Jax and Garcon is a tough 1-2 punch at WR, but if we are minimally blitzing, we can play lots of zone coverage and eliminate throwing lanes.  Our secondary is a weak spot, so our best bet is relying on our front four to generate pressure on Tannehill and force him into poor throws.  I have confidence they will.  
 
When we do blitz, we're sending a human wrecking machine in Alec Ogletree.  I truly hope we are still doing this exercise in a few years, because a core of Hardy/Richardson/Ogletree in the front seven is gonna be special to watch grow.  
 
When the Skins have the ball, there will be times when Detroit gets pressure, but looking at their front seven, I really think they will need to blitz to generate pressure.  Other than Mebane that front is on the weaker side.  And Mebane is primarily a run stuffer, with zero sacks in 2013.  I doubt Detroit would be content to rush three/four and give Flacco all day to throw.  If they do, fine, but I think they will need to blitz.  If and when they do, we have one of the best weapons in the game against the blitz.  Vernon Davis.  Our TE caught 13 TDs in 2013.  How many came against the blitz?  10.  Of his 52 receptions, half of them were against the blitz.  When teams blitzed SF, Vernon Davis caught 26 passes for 467 yards and 10 TDs.  We all know Flacco loves throwing to his TEs.  So unless Detroit either A: doesn't blitz or B: starts sending corner or safety blitzes, Vernon Davis will have room to roam against LB blitzes and on hot reads.  
 
If Detroit does start sending DBs to generate pressure, we've got a nice young tandem of our own outside in Jeffery and Hopkins.  I argued earlier that one of the reasons Flacco had a down 2013 was that he lost Anquan Boldin, a big, physical WR who would win balls in the air for Flacco and bail him out.  Well, in our experiment I got Flacco an upgrade in Jeffery.  I'm confident in Jeffery's ability to win one on one battles against whichever DB the Lions roll his way.  And with Vernon and Alshon drawing the bulk of Detroit's attention, Hopkins will have some room to make a few plays for us.
 
Finally, when we run the ball, we've got (according to Bleacher Report) the best LT in the game to run behind, and both a rising star (Bell) and a human tank (Blount) to carry the rock for us.  
 
I think Vegas would put this game at about Skins -3, so that is my vote.  But I really think this match-up favors Washington.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
I will keep the polls open until 2:00 EST today.  But here are the tentative powerball numbers.  13 votes cast, throwing out the highest and lowest votes leaves us an average of PickEm. 
 
Lions win on balls 1-29, Skins win on balls 30-59.
 
I'm changing the system somewhat so that the outcomes of the games are not so dependent on each other.  If all the games were decided by the first ball drawn in powerball (as originally planned), then a low number would mean all underdogs won and a high number would mean all favorites won.  Having the outcomes connected like that seems undesirable.  So instead each game will be decided by a different ball.
 
 This game will be decided by the fourth white ball drawn.
 
Note: A lot of powerball results sites will not list the winning numbers in the order drawn, but in ascending order.  Here is one that lists them correctly in the order drawn.
 
Edit: Voting now closed, a couple late votes came in that made this a PickEm.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
22,345
Philadelphia
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I will keep the polls open until 2:00 EST today.  But here are the tentative powerball numbers.  13 votes cast, throwing out the highest and lowest votes leaves us an average of PickEm. 
 
Lions win on balls 1-29, Skins win on balls 30-59.
 
I'm changing the system somewhat so that the outcomes of the games are not so dependent on each other.  If all the games were decided by the first ball drawn in powerball (as originally planned), then a low number would mean all underdogs won and a high number would mean all favorites won.  Having the outcomes connected like that seems undesirable.  So instead each game will be decided by a different ball.
 
 This game will be decided by the fourth white ball drawn.
 
Note: A lot of powerball results sites will not list the winning numbers in the order drawn, but in ascending order.  Here is one that lists them correctly in the order drawn.
 
Edit: Voting now closed, a couple late votes came in that made this a PickEm.
 
Fourth white ball is #9.  Congrats to the Lions for their first playoff win since 1991!