I’m general I agree with you but this doesn’t seem to be the trend with QBs. Any deal with Daniel Jones getting $40+ on paper is insane even if it’s one of those NHL contracts for 17 years.
That's what starting QBs make now if you let them get to FA.
In terms of guys who teams committed to as clear starters right now:
there are 8 QBs making 40M+
A bunch making rookie scale
Carr, Lamar, Jones are FA
Cousins AAV is $35M on an extension (but really more since it has void years)
Goff AAV is $33.5 on a 5 year extension signed way back in 2019
Ryan AAV of $30M on a 5 year extension signed back in 2018
Tannehill AAV of 29.5M on a 5 year deal signed as a FA in 2020 (void years so really shorter and higher AAV).
So yeah... if you have a QB who isn't ancient had a good year and you (or someone else) thinks he can be your starter for the next 3+ years and not just a bridge for your rookie.... he's costing you $35-40M with the cap going up.
Going forward OK starters are going to get $40M+, and it'll be $50M in a few years likely.