NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round game thread
- Thread starter mr_smith02
- Start date
And it could go either way, right? After the incredible heartbreak, they could come back and win it all next year. Or their organization could slide backward like so many others who come close but don't quite get there.
Basically depends on how blatant it is. It already falls under the "unfair acts" part of the rules so basically the crew can do whatever they think is equitable.
In real life they could probably get away with it.
They should have rushed 2
Should have ran a (from the back) 2-4-3-2 defense with man principles.
Don't believe so. At least not technically. Rule is for multiple fouls on the same play in an attempt to manipulate the game clock.
Here was the proposal
Absolutely...there's so much young talent in the AFC and the window only seems to stay open for such a short period of time in the NFL.
On the last drive of SB 46, the Giants had a 12 men penalty that took eight seconds off the clock which you'll take every time for five yards. I don't know if it was intentional, but it was certainly effective.
I agree with this... although I will say the context is a little comic/tragic, given that burned into the collective psyche of all Buffalo fans is the Music City Miracle, where of course a short-ish kickoff in a similar situation led to disaster. Despite common sense and football wisdom begging for a squib kick/short kick, I would bet a lot of Bills fans were probably relieved in real time when they kicked deep.
I'm sure this is about as bad as it gets, but the fact that 2003 was a loss to the Yankees in Yankee Stadium I think still gives that an edge. The direct analogy would have been if yesterday's game were at Gillette. In fact, absolutely humiliating the Patriots in these playoffs in Round One was one of the sweetest moments in the last two decades for Bills fans, right?
This feels maybe a little bit more like... 1986 in Red Sox terms (although this wasn't the Super Bowl, so it doesn't work). But I guess we're splitting hairs in terms of heartbreaking sports losses.
Been thinking about this. Perhaps because I'm a homer, I'll still give the edge to the Snow Bowl (because of the environment) and SB 49 (Pats/Seahawks), but this is pretty close.
I thought it was intentional (unlike what the article says), and I thought the NFL changed the rules as a result. I will now take a shower to rid myself of this memory:
https://www.footballzebras.com/2012/09/12-men-in-formation-now-stops-play/
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I was thinking the same thing. Whatever they did, they should have been more concerned with conceding yards underneath rather than getting beaten over the top, because the Chiefs weren't looking to score a TD there but rather just to get into FG range.
with 13 seconds left, the bills should have rushed 4, had 4 guys at the line of scrimmage and three guys deep. They should have told the 4 guys in press coverage, literally, I dont want the receiver to get 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. the second the ball is snapped, hold, bearhug, wrestle, suplex, whatever you need to do, get them to the ground. If Mahomes has nobody to throw to, he will sit back there dancing, and waste valuable seconds. We will take the 5 yard penalty all day long. Even if they call a personal foul, we can live with it, if 5-6 seconds come off the clock.
The Bills haven't allowd a kick return for a TD since 2019. Even if Hill brought it back to midfield-ish, the clock is basically gone and they are down to a hail mary.
Also the holding thing...I remember the Patriots doing something similar to Tony Gonzalez one year in an end of game scenario. They didn't hold, but they put two guys on him, jammed him at the snap and didn't let him off the line. Not sure it's possible to do that with both Hill and Kelce but might've been worth a shot.
Also the holding thing...I remember the Patriots doing something similar to Tony Gonzalez one year in an end of game scenario. They didn't hold, but they put two guys on him, jammed him at the snap and didn't let him off the line. Not sure it's possible to do that with both Hill and Kelce but might've been worth a shot.
Yeah the Giants exploited a loophole in 46. Similar but different to the false start on a punt trick by the Pats and Titans, which I believe the league has also now fixed?
I do find it amusing that a Bills ST gaffe (be it bad call or bad execution) contributed to their demise after McDermott threw shade at Bill for having Harry field a punt in the bad weather MNF game.
I feel terrible for Bills fans but I loathe McDermott and his tough guy routine.
I feel terrible for Bills fans but I loathe McDermott and his tough guy routine.
No as mentioned earlier, personal foul and game clock is reset. They changed this rule a could years ago after the Ravens did this on multiple plays.
https://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/07/2017-nfl-rule-changes-manipulating-clock-penalties-ravens-49ers
No need to rush 4. Rush 2 and let Mahomes take time off clock if chooses. Can't wait to see the All 22 but looked like Buffalo basically conceded the FG to prevent a TD. They called 2 timeouts and those were the calls they came up with.
I think you’d get away with that intentional holding strategy once, which is all you’d need. There is a risk the officials flag it even though it’s not prohibited by an express rule addressing this exact scenario (it only prohibits MULTIPLE intentional penalties on the same down), but that would bring into question why that rule needed to even be passed if it could already be penalized as a palpably unfair act.
No way the Ravens or Patriots, just to name two examples, allow KC to have a second play from scrimmage from about the 45 with 8 seconds left. A combination of a short kickoff and an intentional holding tactic on the first play would preclude that Kelce play to set KC up in sub-50 FG range.
As to the Tony Gonzalez true double team chuck coverage, I recall Belichick stating that it is illegal now, even inside of five yards, but I can’t find an express basis for that in the NFL rule book.
No way the Ravens or Patriots, just to name two examples, allow KC to have a second play from scrimmage from about the 45 with 8 seconds left. A combination of a short kickoff and an intentional holding tactic on the first play would preclude that Kelce play to set KC up in sub-50 FG range.
As to the Tony Gonzalez true double team chuck coverage, I recall Belichick stating that it is illegal now, even inside of five yards, but I can’t find an express basis for that in the NFL rule book.
They were also defending the sidelines for some reason in situation where KC had all 3 timeouts.
The Bills-Chiefs game yesterday reminded me of the Pats-Chiefs AFCCG a few years ago. Kind of a "normal" game for a while, and then unbelievable fireworks to end the fourth quarter, followed by one team taking the ball and driving for a game-winning TD on the first possession of OT.
NE-KC
- Score was 17-14 Patriots with eight minutes left. Then...
- KC went ahead 21-17 on a TD with 7:45 left.
- NE went ahead 24-21 on a TD with 3:32 left.
- KC went ahead 28-24 on a TD with 2:03 left.
- NE went ahead 31-28 on a TD with 0:39 left.
- KC tied it on a FG with 0:08 left.
- NE won it in OT on a TD with 10:08 left.
Buf-KC
- Score was 23-21 Chiefs with nine minutes left. Then...
- KC went up 26-21 on a FG with 8:55 left.
- Buf went ahead 29-26 on a TD with 1:54 left.
- KC went ahead 33-29 on a TD with 1:02 left.
- Buf went ahead 36-33 on a TD with 0:13 left.
- KC tied it on a FG with 0:00 left.
- KC won it in OT on a TD with 10:45 left.
Crazy.
NE-KC
- Score was 17-14 Patriots with eight minutes left. Then...
- KC went ahead 21-17 on a TD with 7:45 left.
- NE went ahead 24-21 on a TD with 3:32 left.
- KC went ahead 28-24 on a TD with 2:03 left.
- NE went ahead 31-28 on a TD with 0:39 left.
- KC tied it on a FG with 0:08 left.
- NE won it in OT on a TD with 10:08 left.
Buf-KC
- Score was 23-21 Chiefs with nine minutes left. Then...
- KC went up 26-21 on a FG with 8:55 left.
- Buf went ahead 29-26 on a TD with 1:54 left.
- KC went ahead 33-29 on a TD with 1:02 left.
- Buf went ahead 36-33 on a TD with 0:13 left.
- KC tied it on a FG with 0:00 left.
- KC won it in OT on a TD with 10:45 left.
Crazy.
I like the idea of rushing 2 the most. Romo was making a great point about how pass rush wasn’t the constraint for Mahomes, time was. Regardless of whether you blitz or rush 2, Mahomes had to release the ball within a couple seconds. If you are dropping 9, that is way hard for him to complete something downfield than dropping 7.
I was flooded with relief once again that KC elected to kick for the tie with 8 seconds left in the 2018 AFCCG rather than take a shot in the end zone. Any time for Mahomes is too much time.
This is a good point.
Besides the Bills and the Bucs screwing up their respective defenses at the end of regulation my enduring memory of this past weekend will be Josh Allen. He was just incredible. He gets all the cliches: 110%, put it all on the line etc. Mahomes is a freak and Hill is a freak and yeah the Chiefs won. But Allen was using his legs, his arm, his brain, his strength, his entire being to win that game. If it’s ok to call a sporting effort heroic, that was it.
You sure about that? I mean, I guess this was with 23 seconds left, but the Chiefs did basically the exact same thing to the Patriots in early 2019.
While I recognize that he wasn't the reason the Bills lost Stephon Diggs had 3 receptions for 7 yards in probably the biggest game of his life against a terrible Chiefs secondary. Incredible.
You think Flowers intentionally jumped?
No way. Go to 2:19:30 of the game tape.
View: https://youtu.be/BoVG6evyoRI
He jumps, then tries to get back onside. If you were committing an intentional defensive penalty to kill clock, you wouldn’t jump
offside then try to recover onside. You’d hold a receiver. All Flowers did was give them a free play to no defensive advantage.
He did however lay the lumber on a tackle of a fan. Also, hard to have him go off when Gabriel Davis is going for 8 and 201 and 4tds:
View: https://twitter.com/carlfugate/status/1485443010817105921?s=20
I don't think he was arguing they would take an intentional penalty. I think he was saying there's no way they'd allow a similar type of completion. But of course, they did back in the 2018 game.
So kick a touchback?
Not following. The point of kicking short with 13 seconds is you either get the returner to kneel/fair catch at the 5-10 yard line or draw down 5-6 seconds from the play clock, leaving time for one play before they’d need to kick. It greatly limits the offense’s paths to a makable FGA.
I think kicking short if you like your coverage unit makes sense in the ‘18 AFCCG, too, even with 39 seconds left, but for the purposes of this comparison the difference between 39 seconds and 13 seconds is massive. That’s worth several additional plays, the particulars dependent on when KC uses its TOs and whether they get the sideline on any completions. That is, the potential time run off the kickoff return v no time elapsing on a touchback is much less consequential to the Chiefs odds of getting a FGA in the ‘18 AFCCG than it was last night.
‘Hey they could get a thirty yarder because they did in another game’ neglects to mention that the odds of that are not high against the coverage you’d be playing on a final scrimmage play and doing so could kill the rest of the clock in doing so where there are 7-8 seconds left after the kick return.
Maybe I'm not following either.
Your first post (summarized): no way the Pats would let the Chiefs run a 2nd play from the 45 with 8 seconds left, they would have done something to prevent that situation
Laddie's response: the Chiefs ran 2 plays in 16 seconds in a similar situation back in 2018, so the Pats basically did the same thing
But fully agree with you that 39 and 13 seconds aren't comparable.
The fact that Reid/the Chiefs didn't fuck up time management enough earlier in the half to force the Chiefs to burn one or more TOs prior to the final 13 sec. is an underrated part of the story.
In my scenario, the first play from scrimmage is with about 8 seconds left. They aren’t getting a second play from scrimmage in that situation that doesn’t - absent a defensive penalty - end the game because, unlike a goal line play or a play with 12 plus seconds, they can’t run a second play from scrimmage that materially improves their chances of getting into scoring position without killing the clock.
So, to clarify, the kick return in my scenario isn’t the ‘first play’, as I was referring to plays from scrimmage. With a timeout the Chiefs could definitely get 40 yards in two plays across 16 seconds of game clock. That’s exactly what happened yesterday, and is why I think they fucked up not kicking the ball short to burn clock.
I'm with you. Kicking through was a mistake in real time, and almost everyone recognized it (although I was one of the few or maybe only one who cautioned against the game over takes at 13 seconds left).
This study here:
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/return-or-not-return
Talks about whether to return a kick from the end zone or not. So not quite the same thing as returning it from the five. But I wanted to know what frequency teams got the ball out to, say, the 40 yard line. This study doesn't use the 40, but rather the 35 and the 50, as the benchmarks. So not quite what I wanted to see, but not unuseful for my purposes.
Across the league, with kicks that went into the end zone, only 8% of them that were returned got to the 35 yard line, and only 2% got to the 50. But getting to the 50 would take up about 8 seconds, leaving them with 5 to get another 10 yards or so. Doable, but super tight. It would take about 5 seconds to get to the 35, leaving about 8 seconds to get 25 yards. Again, possible, but super tight.
It seems the odds are better that Mahomes would complete a pass to advance them to the 40 rather than have a return get there.
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/return-or-not-return
Talks about whether to return a kick from the end zone or not. So not quite the same thing as returning it from the five. But I wanted to know what frequency teams got the ball out to, say, the 40 yard line. This study doesn't use the 40, but rather the 35 and the 50, as the benchmarks. So not quite what I wanted to see, but not unuseful for my purposes.
Across the league, with kicks that went into the end zone, only 8% of them that were returned got to the 35 yard line, and only 2% got to the 50. But getting to the 50 would take up about 8 seconds, leaving them with 5 to get another 10 yards or so. Doable, but super tight. It would take about 5 seconds to get to the 35, leaving about 8 seconds to get 25 yards. Again, possible, but super tight.
It seems the odds are better that Mahomes would complete a pass to advance them to the 40 rather than have a return get there.
Reffing question for @CFB_Rules - On the Evans play, the ball hit the ground a split second before Waddle leveled him with a helmet-to-helmet hit. Therefore, it technically was (being fourth down) a change of possession and therefore the ball didn't go back to the Bucs.
Now let's say that instead of H-2-H on the WR, it was a H-2-H on Brady. Say he tried to throw a screen on fourth down and the ball hit the turf a second before Donald drilled Brady in the head. So incomplete pass, turnover on downs, but Brady gets pummeled by Donald in a clear roughing penalty. They throw the flag for a personal foul.
In that case, would the Bucs have retained possession? If so, why is it different than the H-2-H on Evans?
Now let's say that instead of H-2-H on the WR, it was a H-2-H on Brady. Say he tried to throw a screen on fourth down and the ball hit the turf a second before Donald drilled Brady in the head. So incomplete pass, turnover on downs, but Brady gets pummeled by Donald in a clear roughing penalty. They throw the flag for a personal foul.
In that case, would the Bucs have retained possession? If so, why is it different than the H-2-H on Evans?
He wasn't. It was Pringle. That should have made a non-end zone kick mandatory.
They should have had 8 back in coverage and 3 guys on the line fake rush and dance around waving their arms at him from the LOS to distract. Making it more difficult to complete a shorter pass.
Because, in the least satisfying answer possible, roughing the passer is treated differently because it is. If 10 seconds had elapsed and Donald simply plowed Brady into the bench as he went to the sideline, I suspect it would be a regular deadball PF.
Roughing the passer is assumed by rule to occur during the pass, so it would always be during the play. I don’t think I have ever seen a roughing foul that wasn’t during the play though.
I mean, how often do you see a helmet to helmet hit on a defenseless receiver after the ball hits the ground? I'm having trouble thinking of an example before this past weekend, and any hit on the QB would happen way earlier.
It turns out that Joe Pos is almost the exact same age as me (one month younger) and thought the same thing. It was the crazy end obviously but also the quality of play from both teams the entire game, the defenses couldn’t do anything by the end but it was because they’d been battered into submission, like the late rounds of a great heavyweight fight.
Anyway, most of his stuff is pay now but this was free:
“Kansas City 42, Buffalo 36 (OT)
Let’s see here: The date was Jan. 2, 1982. So that means I was just about to turn 15 years old. I only remember snippets of the Chargers-Dolphins playoff game that day — I remember Kellen Winslow being near death. I remember what seemed like a million missed field goals James Bond villains named Rolf Benirschke and Uwe Von Shamann. I remember the ultimate hook-and-ladder play, Don Strock to Duriel Harris to Tony Nathan.
What I remember most vividly was the feeling, the overwhelming feeling, as the game ended. Yes, there had been the Colts-Giants championship game and Chiefs-Dolphins on Christmas Day, and the Ghost to the Post Raiders-Colts game of ’77.
But, I just KNEW — with all the certainty that an almost-15-year-old can know anything — that I had just seen the greatest game ever played.
And now it is 40 years later, and I am 55, and I have precisely the same feeling in the afterglow of this Chiefs-Bills masterpiece.”
The question is not whether the 15 yards gets enforced, though (it was). The question is about possession of the ball.
Not if he was throwing a screen pass, or throwing the ball into the ground to avoid a sack. QBs do that all the time and occasionally they still get hit late. I've never seen it on fourth down though, but in the history of the NFL it has to have happened before. I'm just asking CFB what would happen in that scenario. I suspect they'd treat the QB *very* differently than the WR. Like if Brady tried to dump a screen to Fournette on that play and the ball hit the ground a split second before Brady got absolutely lit up by Aaron Donald, and they called roughing, I'm 100% convinced the Bucs would retain possession there. Because....QB.