Very impressive, let’s see how close this turns out to being right. At the bare minimum, this alone is insanely cool.My friend who often gets STL scoops early texted me this, he thinks it is happening (money is unclear):
Rockies get: Matt Carpenter, Tommy Edman, Lane Thomas, Miles Mikolas, and Johan Oviedo
Cardinals get: Nolan Arenado, Jon Gray
MIA sent $30M along with Stanton in similar circumstances, it’s because the remaining contract is so big.The Rockies are sending the best player plus $50M? I'm sure I'm missing something, but that seems weird without knowing many of the Cardinal players involved.
Franklyn Gorman, of course.If they are sending $50M, they have to be getting Gorman back.
They've quietly been a really terrible franchise. They've been around for 25 years and have only been to the postseason four times. They've only won a playoff series in one of those seasons - 2007, where they made it all the way to the World Series before, well, you know what.the Rockies haven't signed a major league FA in like 3 seasons. They're just a bad franchise.
Definitely. It was a mistake expansion franchise.It has to be pretty impossible to build a team when pitches act one way in home games and another way in all other games. As we've learned in recent years, this isn't just close to impossible for the pitchers to deal with, it's really difficult for the hitters in non-Coors games.
This is part of what makes it complicated, because from COL's side, he was almost certainly opting out if he wasn't traded.I guess if he opts out, it isn't too terrible a deal for the Rockies. But when players to St. Louis they stay forever.
And if he doesn’t opt out it’s because he had a really disappointing season. His trade value falls and you’re stuck with a bad contract.This is part of what makes it complicated, because from COL's side, he was almost certainly opting out if he wasn't traded.
Nothing has been announced, it needs Arenado and the league office to sign off on it. It seems like it is five mediocre prospects for Arenado plus $50M (assuming he doesn't opt out, I would think).So what is the actual deal?
It's a real tribute to Mookie Betts and Chaim Bloom (and the Dodgers' need to show their fanbase they were being aggressive) that the Sox got so much for Mookie last year, because that doesn't usually happen in these deals (Stanton, Lindor/Carrasco).the 50M has to be only if he doesn't opt out at all, right? and a prorated if he does?
the return sounds pitiful. 3-5 lower-end prospects.
and also that the Dodgers had outfielders to burn with Verdugo, I guess.It's a real tribute to Mookie Betts and Chaim Bloom (and the Dodgers' need to show their fanbase they were being aggressive) that the Sox got so much for Mookie last year, because that doesn't usually happen in these deals (Stanton, Lindor/Carrasco).
We've learned in the last few years that Rockies hitters' road numbers are as shrunken as the Coors' numbers are inflated, and so their overall numbers aren't really inflated. Mike Petriello has written about it a ton, but one example is DJ LeMahieu had a .673 road OPS in seven years with COL.edited the post you quoted with some stats. St. Louis is taking some risk here still.
"The Rockies scored 4,596 runs at home, unsurprisingly the most in baseball. But over the same period on the road, they scored 3,089 runs, the fewest in baseball,"This covers 2006-2015 but it's still just as true, pretty sure.
"For example, over the past 10 seasons, the Rockies scored 4,596 runs at home, unsurprisingly the most in baseball. But over the same period on the road, they scored 3,089 runs, the fewest in baseball, 151 runs behind 29th-place Houston. In order for both of those things to be true, either Coors Field would have to elevate baseball's worst offense to play like its best, or a middle-of-the-pack team would have had to receive positive effects at home and__negative effects on the road -- which seems far more realistic. You can call that "the Coors Field effect.""
So you are saying that the opt-out clause benefits the player, rather than the team? Interesting take.And if he doesn’t opt out it’s because he had a really disappointing season. His trade value falls and you’re stuck with a bad contract.
How could you possibly say that after all the GM's that post here on SoSH totally disagreed with your assessment the day that Betts was traded away?It's a real tribute to Mookie Betts and Chaim Bloom (and the Dodgers' need to show their fanbase they were being aggressive) that the Sox got so much for Mookie last year, because that doesn't usually happen in these deals (Stanton, Lindor/Carrasco).
Cardinals have done a lot more right than wrong over the past 15-20 years. They walked up to the ledge and then turned away from extending the 2d greatest player in their history, a move that seemed wise/gutsy at the time (and proved at least a little lucky in retrospect). They target studs and get them for fair (some would argue unfair!) value: Holliday, Goldschmidt, Arenado. Also not the first time they’ve “taken a chance” on a Rockies hitter with great stats (see Walker, Larry, 2004).There’s an almost 0% chance the Rockies could compete with LAD and SD through the end of Arenado’s deal. Better to pay out $50 million if the net savings is $149 million.
Add in the shoulder concerns and sub .800 ops on the road (although that risk/benefit is probably a worthwhile gamble for StL) and see what Arenado looks like after a couple full seasons outside of Colorado.
Well, is there any reason for them to keep Story around at this point?Can Brendan Rodgers play 3b? At some point, they have to give that kid an actual opportunity.
Yeah I'd say LeMahieu was still a really good hitter away from Colorado given what he's done in NY. I would expect the same with Arenado.We've learned in the last few years that Rockies hitters' road numbers are as shrunken as the Coors' numbers are inflated, and so their overall numbers aren't really inflated. Mike Petriello has written about it a ton, but one example is DJ LeMahieu had a .673 road OPS in seven years with COL.
https://www.mlb.com/news/dj-lemahieu-leaves-coors-field-for-the-bronx-c302622392
No, the rule doesn't apply to hitters who go to the YankeesYeah I'd say LeMahieu was still a really good hitter away from Colorado given what he's done in NY. I would expect the same with Arenado.
I said it was probably a worthwhile gamble given the risk/benefit.Cardinals have done a lot more right than wrong over the past 15-20 years. They walked up to the ledge and then turned away from extending the 2d greatest player in their history, a move that seemed wise/gutsy at the time (and proved at least a little lucky in retrospect). They target studs and get them for fair (some would argue unfair!) value: Holliday, Goldschmidt, Arenado. Also not the first time they’ve “taken a chance” on a Rockies hitter with great stats (see Walker, Larry, 2004).
St. Louis has been a model MLB franchise. Colorado, not so much. I wouldn’t bet against this deal working out well for the Cards.
Covered in hereIf this goes through, I wonder what the implications would be for the Cubs. They already were entering a transition period but this may tip them over into a full rebuild and increase their willingness to deal Contreras, Bryant, Baez for parts.
Yes. Statistics back the theory (see JA's post/links above) that the Coors effect has a more negative impact on the ability to hit on the road than the positive impact on home numbers. This is exacerbated even more given the division they play in, where 3 of the parks are at or below sea level. It may be a mistake to play MLB in Denver, but it's certainly a mistake to have the Rockies in the NL West.So the idea is Nolan is actually a 850-900 OPS hitter once he's away from Coors a whole season? interesting.
I think they move McMahon to 3rd and Rogers plays 2nd. Or they trade Story (they probably should) and Rogers replaces him.Can Brendan Rodgers play 3b? At some point, they have to give that kid an actual opportunity.
Not to be too pedantic, but that was a lot more than 15-20 years ago. Like 94 or 95. (At least by WAR).Cardinals have done a lot more right than wrong over the past 15-20 years. They walked up to the ledge and then turned away from extending the 2d greatest player in their history, a move that seemed wise/gutsy at the time (and proved at least a little lucky in retrospect). They target studs and get them for fair (some would argue unfair!) value: Holliday, Goldschmidt, Arenado. Also not the first time they’ve “taken a chance” on a Rockies hitter with great stats (see Walker, Larry, 2004).
St. Louis has been a model MLB franchise. Colorado, not so much. I wouldn’t bet against this deal working out well for the Cards.