Norwooding the Extra Point: Myth or Reality, and its impact through 64 games

IdiotKicker

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Thought this might be a good place to dump this given the talk about kickers over the last week.
 
 
Through four weeks, NFL kickers have connected on 285 of 303 kicks, good for 94.1% accuracy. This number is slightly higher than the predicted 92.7% for one reason: NFL kickers have the choice of where they place the ball between the hashes on extra points. Field goals are required to be placed on the hashes if the previous play ended outside the hash marks, or where the play ended if it occurred inside the hash marks. Extra points allow the choice of kicking angle. Kickers will naturally select a location on the field they feel most comfortable, resulting in a slight uptick in accuracy.
 
Broadcasters, fans, and journalists have noted that the increased accuracy has coincided with the majority of games being played in good weather. The assumption is that it may be more difficult to make XPs from the longer distance during the colder part of the schedule in November and December. A casual glance at the data might even seem to confirm it. However, this is not borne out by the historical data.
 
http://insidethepylon.com/nfl/games-nfl/numbers/2015/10/05/longer-extra-points-in-the-nfl-through-week-4/
 

OCST

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I like the change.  It's not a gimme anymore, and when just idly sitting around watching games, it's fun to see score updates that indicate missed XP.  Almost feels like a high school game.
 

BaseballJones

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I like it.  It's still pretty much a gimme, but there's at least a small chance that a kicker will get the yips.  Thankfully the Pats have the best kicker in the business.
 

IdiotKicker

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What I'm actually interested to see if if this changes how teams go about filling the position in future years. Previously, any kicker in the league could make XPs nearly 100% of the time. Now, I wonder if teams will sacrifice some distance from kickers in an attempt to find guys more accurate from shorter distances.
 

luckiestman

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IdiotKicker said:
What I'm actually interested to see if if this changes how teams go about filling the position in future years. Previously, any kicker in the league could make XPs nearly 100% of the time. Now, I wonder if teams will sacrifice some distance from kickers in an attempt to find guys more accurate from shorter distances.
I'm interested in the marginal effect on kicker salaries as a percentage of the cap
 

IdiotKicker

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luckiestman said:
I'm interested in the marginal effect on kicker salaries as a percentage of the cap
 
I think you'll likely see a little more stratification and potentially a little more money spent on kickers, but guaranteed money will remain low simply because you need to be able to cut bait if a guy gets the yips for an extended period of time.
 

dbn

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Has anyone noticed a game being decided by a missed XP(s) yet?
 
edit: I just checked all the teams that have missed XPs so far, and the answer appears to be "no". 
 

Super Nomario

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dbn said:
Has anyone noticed a game being decided by a missed XP(s) yet?
New Orleans / Carolina was a couple weeks ago, though not directly. The Saints scored a TD to go up 16-10, but missed the XP. Later on they scored a TD to cut the deficit to 27-22, went for two, and failed to convert. If they'd made their first XP, they would have been down just 3 late when they drove down to the Carolina 23. Without the FG option, they threw to the end zone and got picked. Without the missed XP, they would have been in position to tie the game in regulation. I imagine there have been a few such games this year.
 

dbn

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Super Nomario said:
New Orleans / Carolina was a couple weeks ago, though not directly. The Saints scored a TD to go up 16-10, but missed the XP. Later on they scored a TD to cut the deficit to 27-22, went for two, and failed to convert. If they'd made their first XP, they would have been down just 3 late when they drove down to the Carolina 23. Without the FG option, they threw to the end zone and got picked. Without the missed XP, they would have been in position to tie the game in regulation. I imagine there have been a few such games this year.
 
Interesting, thanks. I missed that one.
 

Gash Prex

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GeorgeCostanza said:
I hated it when it was first announced but I as wrong. It's added a new wrinkle to the game and I really like it. Also enjoy the fact that we have a fantastic kicker.
 
I think this is why BB franchised Ghost, knowing that kickers would be at a premium moving forward.   
 

Brand Name

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Moving the Line
We talk all the time here about the Belichick rule about extra points being moved back to a 33-yard kick, and subsequently, how lucky we are to have Ghost as the Patriots kicker. Despite playing in one fewer game than all kickers, save Tennessee's Ryan Succop, Ghost is 4th in the league in extra points attempted this season, with 14. Of kickers with at least that many attempts, only Gostkowski and Atlanta's Matt Bryant (15/15) are perfect on the season on the point after. Nugent and Catanzaro, with 15 and 18 attempts respectively, have each missed an attempt.
 
In total, the league thus far is 290/307, or 94.46% made, putting us on pace for 1160/1228. Great, that doesn't mean a whole lot, does it? So, we have to view it in context. From 2002-2014, here is the number of teams by season who had a worse percentage than the NFL on the whole does right now:
 
2002: Vikings at 93.18%, Bengals and Giants at 93.75% (Jets and Steelers come close at 94.59%, 35/37)
2003: 49ers, 92.68%
2004: N/A, all teams were better
2005: Browns at 90.48%, Titans at 93.75%
2006: Bengals, 93.02%
2007: N/A, all teams were better
2008: N/A, all teams were better
2009: Redskins, 92.86%
2010: Bengals, 93.75%
2011: N/A, all teams were better
2012: N/A, all teams were better (but the Jaguars come close at 94.74%; Scobee was 18/19)
2013: N/A, all teams were better
2014: Chicago, 94.29%
 
In a 13 year stretch, only 10 teams, out of a possible 416, kicked worse than the collective league is right now, with what amounts to just about chip shot range for its extra points. With the distance change, were it a team in this period, collective NFL kickers right now would be among the second percentile (2.40%) of kicking efficiency.
 
Now that we've done it by team, we'll next examine league year by league year numbers, from 2012 to 2015. Notice the (generally speaking) direct correlation between attempts and the years getting more recent? Thanks, Polian! 2007 is larger than it would be otherwise, due to one team in particular with its 74 makes and attempts, likewise one team in 2013 who has a quarterback who makes amusing faces when defeated.
 
2002: 1,120 made, 1,137 attempted, 98.50%
2003: 1,156 made, 1,174 attempted, 98.47%
2004: 1,179 made, 1,189 attempted, 99.16%
2005: 1,068 made, 1,083 attempted, 98.61%
2006: 1,124 made, 1,135 attempted, 99.03%
2007: 1,165 made, 1,178 attempted, 98.90%
2008: 1,170 made, 1,176 attempted, 99.49%
2009: 1,165 made, 1,185 attempted, 98.31%
2010: 1,203 made, 1,214 attempted, 99.09%
2011: 1,200 made, 1,207 attempted, 99.42%
2012: 1,229 made, 1,235 attempted, 99.51%
2013: 1,262 made, 1,267 attempted, 99.61%
2014: 1,222 made, 1,230 attempted, 99.35%
2015 (projected, assuming current rates apply at four times existing rate): 1,160 made, 1,228 attempted, 94.46%
 
So, over such a stretch, what does that mean the percent missed increases? It's (mean(% made, 2002 to 2014))-0.9446=X. This comes out to a 4.57% decrease in extra points made, or 53.07 points lost in the league, per season, based off the previous average. This also means given 1/X,  1 out of every 21.88 (say 22) of extra points is being missed this season, that would not have been in the 13 year previous average. This means that if we had kept the normal short extra point, we'd only have 60.00 projected additional points, league-wide, from 2014.
 
With 64 games/17 XP missed equaling 3.76, this is naturally games/extra point missed, a little under 4, or exactly 68 such games projected for the regular season (as 17*4=68), a hair under 3 for the playoffs. While this researcher does not believe this backup will have much, if any, regular season impact, three extra points missed in the playoffs may prove to be a death knell for a given team, especially at a time where points are at a premium. Yes, in this case, the limitations of said projection are realized: Not all kickers are coached or created equal, but short of a method to actually grade the kickers with a larger sample size in this particular action, this will have to do (if you can think of something else, please let me know!).
 
Yes, it's great to have Ghost, absolutely. The misses are there, certainly, but the impact of it on the overall extra point game is almost immaterial, and its effects thus far, with existing rates, have been vastly overstated, but this study still likely needs a larger sample size. This likely should be addressed at the end of the playoffs to determine its true impact on the league, for better or worse.
 
EDIT: Fatfingered 2014. Of course I did. As such, redid some math regarding 2014/15 carryover. Apologies!
 

DJnVa

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GeorgeCostanza said:
I hated it when it was first announced but I as wrong. It's added a new wrinkle to the game and I really like it. Also enjoy the fact that we have a fantastic kicker.
 
 
I heard it said a few times (including on Simmons podcast by whoever he was talking to that day) that it makes kickers too important and no one wants to see that.
 
 

IdiotKicker

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DrewDawg said:
 
 
I heard it said a few times (including on Simmons podcast by whoever he was talking to that day) that it makes kickers too important and no one wants to see that.
 
 
By making kickers more important, it inherently reduces the likelihood of seeing them because misses will force more 2-pt conversions, which means more real football. So that logic makes no sense. Not saying that you said it, but just that those guys don't understand what is actually happening.
 
Edit: Thru 4 weeks, the data back this up with 20 2-pt attempts versus 11 at this point last year.
 

djbayko

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DrewDawg said:
 
I heard it said a few times (including on Simmons podcast by whoever he was talking to that day) that it makes kickers too important and no one wants to see that.
 
By logical extension, we should get rid of kickers entirely then.

While we're at it, let's eliminate the running play.

This game is getting more exciting already!
 

Kevin Youkulele

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djbayko said:
By logical extension, we should get rid of kickers entirely then.

While we're at it, let's eliminate the running play.

This game is getting more exciting already!
I wonder whether eliminating the running play would actually mean fewer completed long passes because of the absence of play action, stacking the box, ability to play in dime defense all the time, etc.  
 

mauf

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IdiotKicker said:
 
By making kickers more important, it inherently reduces the likelihood of seeing them because misses will force more 2-pt conversions, which means more real football. So that logic makes no sense. Not saying that you said it, but just that those guys don't understand what is actually happening.
 
Edit: Thru 4 weeks, the data back this up with 20 2-pt attempts versus 11 at this point last year.
Only the Steelers and the Saints have attempted more than two 2PCs this season; between them, they account for 7 of those 20 attempts. PIT's strategy definitely is driven by the rule change. I haven't watched NO enough to say.
 

crystalline

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maufman said:
Only the Steelers and the Saints have attempted more than two 2PCs this season; between them, they account for 7 of those 20 attempts. PIT's strategy definitely is driven by the rule change. I haven't watched NO enough to say.
 
Is it Heinz- and side- specific?
 

crystalline

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Nice, point taken.

I watched part of Steelers/Ravens and for both teams lining up an XP into the wind was scary.

Will be interesting to see whether 2PC's are significantly higher at Heinz than other fields when the season is done.
 

lexrageorge

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DrewDawg said:
 
 
I heard it said a few times (including on Simmons podcast by whoever he was talking to that day) that it makes kickers too important and no one wants to see that.
 
People who claim that know very little about football.  
 
For those that think kickers don't matter, I'll give you the last game played in the old Foxboro stadium on that snowy night in January.  I don't recall people at the time complaining that the importance of kickers somehow detracted from the game.
 
I can see disagreement on where the PAT should be kicked, or how PAT's should be handled in general.  But arguments such as the one quoted barely deserve a response.  
 
EDIT:  I realize DrewDawg was just quoting what he heard, so no attack on the poster intended.