NY rotation 2018

[jon abbey]

With CC officially coming back, NY once again has a full rotation, the same rotation they ended 2017 with:

Severino
Tanaka
Gray
CC
Montgomery

Cessa or German (one is the long guy for NY, one is in the AAA rotation)
Adams
Sheffield

I'm sure Cashman will keep trying to upgrade at a fair price here, but this is certainly strong enough to go into the season with, especially with a loaded bullpen behind them. It seems like Cashman wants a sixth guy, though, and then he can rest guys when needed, so we'll see.

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

With CC officially coming back, NY once again has a full rotation, the same rotation they ended 2017 with:

Severino
Tanaka
Gray
CC
Montgomery

Cessa or German (one is the long guy for NY, one is in the AAA rotation)
Adams
Sheffield

I'm sure Cashman will keep trying to upgrade at a fair price here, but this is certainly strong enough to go into the season with, especially with a loaded bullpen behind them. It seems like Cashman wants a sixth guy, though, and then he can rest guys when needed, so we'll see.

There's also a near certainty that at least one of those starters goes down for an extended period, given CC and Tanaka's history and the fact that Severino's IP jumped by more than 140 innings last season.

 

[jon abbey]

Severino pitched 80 innings in the minors in 2016, so I have his increase from 151 innings to 209 including postseason. Still a big jump, but nowhere near 140.

But there's a near certainty that a starter goes down for an extended period because they're pitchers and that's what happens. Teams usually end up using 8 or 10 or 12 SPs over the course of a season.

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

Yes, we are in agreement there, but I think the concern should be that between CC and Tanaka's injury history, and Severino's potential Verducci Effect, they could easily find themselves down TWO starters from that list.

That's why I was hoping they'd not resign CC, and find someone a bit younger and/or healthier. Though I'm certainly not too down on the move, Cash got him on a relative steal of a contract...

 

[jon abbey]

I keep saying it but CC was 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA against BOS last year in 4 starts and they should have a pretty similar lineup this year, that alone made it pretty sure to me that Cashman always wanted him back if he could get him on a one year deal safely under the $197M line. Cobb is supposedly asking more than the Cubs want to pay, so no thank you there.

Cashman seems to be clearing the way for his young guys as much as possible, faster than even I expected and it's all I've been talking about for a long time now. I am sure he will keep pushing on any young top SPs who may be potentially available, but in the meantime, it'd be great to see the conga line of German and Adams and Sheffield etc. starting to get shots when needed. They are 2/5 of the way to a homegrown rotation currently (Severino/Montgomery) and it's not impossible to see an entire rotation from within at some point, CC has one year left, Gray two, Tanaka three.

And please upgrade backup catcher, we are so reliant on Sanchez' health right now. Romine is awful, Higashioka is never healthy, and it just gets uglier after that.

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

One question I've been meaning to ask around these parts. And I'll start with some caveats:

-I know the prevailing wisdom is that the Yankees would bid for Harper, and may still target him or Machado, as their big free agent next offseason.
-I know the assumption is that Kershaw will sign an extension, or choose not to opt out.
-and I know the Yankees have loads of internal options for the rotation...

...but I've still not seen anyone consider the possibility of the Yankees bidding for Kershaw, should he opt out, especially now that they have Stanton (who claims he won't opt out and will stay in New York long term).

What's your thought? I don't really have any impression, I just think it's interesting that nobody has brought up that possibility.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

One question I've been meaning to ask around these parts. And I'll start with some caveats:

-I know the prevailing wisdom is that the Yankees would bid for Harper, and may still target him or Machado, as their big free agent next offseason.
-I know the assumption is that Kershaw will sign an extension, or choose not to opt out.
-and I know the Yankees have loads of internal options for the rotation...

...but I've still not seen anyone consider the possibility of the Yankees bidding for Kershaw, should he opt out, especially now that they have Stanton (who claims he won't opt out and will stay in New York long term).

What's your thought? I don't really have any impression, I just think it's interesting that nobody has brought up that possibility.

With Kershaw's injury history, it'll be really hard for team's to commit to him for another mega contract. He plays for the Dodgers, they'll extend him another handful of years to age 35 and probably call it a day to avoid him opting out. This is really similar to the CC situation.

 

[jon abbey]

I think no one thinks Kershaw will leave the Dodgers. He will make them pay market value, but they will and he will stay.

 

[Lorca's Tribble]

I think no one thinks Kershaw will leave the Dodgers. He will make them pay market value, but they will and he will stay.

I'm in agreement that this is the likely scenario, but still think it's worth a discussion as long as we're talking possibilities. We all assumed Tanaka would opt out, we all assumed the Yankees didn't have a shot at Stanton, we all thought Otani was going to be in pinstripes...

...we all assumed 2017 was a bridge year.

With Kershaw's injury history, it'll be really hard for team's to commit to him for another mega contract. He plays for the Dodgers, they'll extend him another handful of years to age 35 and probably call it a day to avoid him opting out. This is really similar to the CC situation.

That may well be what happens, but I'm not sure it's anything like the CC situation-- he'll be just 30, and only had one injury plagued year, when he still won 12 games, and was still in the Cy Young discussion. He bounced back to the tune of 2.31ERA, led the league in wins (18) and came 2nd in the CYA.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm in agreement that this is the likely scenario, but still think it's worth a discussion as long as we're talking possibilities.

I mean to be precise, the thread is for 2018 season updates and possibilities, and that is not Kershaw (or Kluber, Sale, Scherzer). I think Fulmer is still the guy to shoot for, but maybe if Arizona is awful early on, Cashman could try to pry away Robbie Ray.

 

[jon abbey]

Bump, Montgomery officially named as 5th starter (not that there was ever any real doubt unless Cashman brought in a top of the rotation stud), so the rotation is set as expected barring injury.

Here's an incredible stat, 4 of NY's 5 SPs were in the top 8 in the AL last year in swinging strike percentage (all but Sabathia):

 

[jon abbey]

Minor league rosters have been set this week, so let's check out where prospects are and what the depth chart looks like currently. Not sure this is complete or all correct, but I will fix it going forward.

Starred players are the most touted prospects, also I've ordered each five in rough order of potential:

AAA: *Domingo German, *Chance Adams, Luis Cessa, Daniel Camarena, David Hale, Josh Rogers (Brady Lail is being converted to bullpen)
AA: *Justus Sheffield, *Domingo Acevedo, *Dillon Tate, Will Carter, Erik Swanson/Brian Keller
A: *Freicer Perez, Trevor Stephan, *Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King, Adonis Rosa

Top prospects in lower league rotations: *Luis Medina, *Matt Sauer, *Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Glenn Otto, Nolan Martinez

On the DL (not arm issues): *Albert Abreu (supposed to start pitching in May at high A)

 

[jon abbey]

NY has made some early season promotions and they have very little obvious depth right now ready to step in behind their current five blg league guys, so I'm going to update the minor league rotations as best I can:

AAA: *Justus Sheffield, *Chance Adams, Daniel Camarena, Josh Rogers, Brody Koerner
AA: *Dillon Tate, *Jonathan Loaisiga, Erik Swanson, Will Carter, Brian Keller
high A: *Albert Abreu, *Freicer Perez, *Trevor Stephan, Michael King, Nick Green, Nick Nelson
low A: *Luis Medina, Glenn Otto, JP Sears, Garrett Whitlock, Dalton Lehnen

Top prospects in lower league rotations: *Matt Sauer, *Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Nolan Martinez

On the DL (nothing serious): *Domingo Acevedo

===============

Barring a quick turnaround by Chance Adams, who has been pretty mediocre so far, the two SPs most likely to help NY in an emergency are Sheffield (NY's top pitching prospect, promoted to AAA today) and Loaisiga (already 23 and on the 40 man, just promoted to AA but he will keep moving fast if he keeps it up).

Also that high A rotation is seriously loaded, Stephan should probably be promoted ASAP.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Wonder if we should use this thread for trade discussions of potential NYY targets.

What would it would take to grab Jon Gray out of Colorado Blake or Snell from TB? Jon Gray has been somewhat inconsistent due to injuries causing the hype to die down. Ironically, he pitches better at home but those splits aren't likely to hold up for long. I'd love to see if he could be had.

 

[jon abbey]

I’m excited to give German a chance after that dominant first start, there were a couple of exciting articles written in the wake of that which I’ll excerpt here in a bit.

 

[jon abbey]

So I agree that if Cashman can get someone he really likes long-term who is cost controlled that he'll go for it, Andujar or Drury plus some pitching prospects (maybe Adams and Tate) might work. But if those guys are all too expensive, I think he may stick with internal candidates and hope one blossoms, here are the main three who can potentially help as of now.

1) Domingo German. We already saw his potential last Sunday against CLE and he is now in the rotation if he keeps pitching well. That was his first start but he has 45 Ks in 34 innings in his brief big league career, and he seems quite focused on not relinquishing his spot now that he's finally gotten his chance. Fangraphs wrote a piece about him the other day:

"His lithe, 6-foot-2, 180-pound frame has always created excellent velocity, but perhaps his fastball was not fully appreciated until we placed TrackMan radar upon it. German’s average spin rate of 2,525 rpms this season ranks eighth in baseball. That’s elite. The pitch ranked fifth last season in a small sample of work."

"German has always had swing-and-miss stuff, although perhaps we didn’t know the stuff was this good. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this season, German ranks seventh in out-of-zone swing rate above Noah Syndergaard and just behind Chris Sale and Patrick Corbin.

He ranks eighth in swinging-strike rate (15.3%) among pitchers with at least 20 innings, one spot ahead of Shohei Ohtani."

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/domingo-german-demands-our-attention/

 

[jon abbey]

2) Justus Sheffield. NY's top pitching prospect, he turns 22 this weekend and was just promoted to AAA. CC has taken him under his wing, they evidently text back and forth a lot, both African-American lefties drafted by the Indians who ended up in NY. He is not quite ready yet but may be in a couple of months. He is not on the 40 man yet.

3) Jonathan Loaisiga. He came out of nowhere just before the rule 5 draft when NY put him on the 40 man even though he has a very limited track record because of injury. So far this season we are seeing why NY protected him, he has already been promoted to AA and has pitched well in his first two starts there. Keith Law scouted his AA start the other day and posted about him today (I will put the link, but it is Insider):

"Using mostly a fastball and breaking ball, Loaisiga was good enough last season for me to rank him No. 11 in a loaded system back in January, but his stuff was electric in his outing on Wednesday and he's taken a big step forward.

Loaisiga pitched at 94-96 mph in his five-inning outing, with some downhill plane to it, and even bumped a single 97. His slider was sharp at 85-87, and he threw a more curveball-shaped breaker at 82. He'd been mostly curveball last year, so I think these are two distinct pitches, with the slider either new or just massively improved (which the Yankees managed to do with Luis Severino after 2016). His changeup came in at 86-89 and some had splitter-like bottom, while others turned over more like a straight change, but all three pitches were comfortably above-average and flashing plus.

Loaisiga recorded his first six outs all via the strikeout and finished with eight against no walks, allowing a solo homer and five other hits. It's plus control but average-at-best command right now, and he's coming a little more across his body than he did, starting on the extreme first base side of the rubber and ending up coming towards the plate. That delivery can make it hard for a pitcher to locate to his glove side, but Loaisiga's pure stuff was so good it didn't matter. There are some reasons to question his ultimate role, including the delivery and his size, but that's a starter's arsenal and more than enough feel and control right now to project him there."

http://insider.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=8372

 

[jon abbey]

Chance Adams is a consensus top 100 guy who dominated AAA last year but who didn't get a chance because Cashman wanted to save the 40 man spot (he didn't need to be protected yet), and so far this year he is struggling in AAA and doesn't look like an option to help right now.

 

[jon abbey]

Two weeks later, I think the only additional promotion has been Whitlock to Tampa:

AAA: *Justus Sheffield, *Chance Adams, Erik Swanson, Josh Rogers, David Hale
AA: *Dillon Tate, *Jonathan Loaisiga, Michael King, Brian Keller, Brody Koerner
high A: *Albert Abreu, *Trevor Stephan, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Garrett Whitlock, Will Carter
low A: *Luis Medina, Glenn Otto, JP Sears, Dalton Lehnen, Rony Garcia

Top prospects in lower league rotations: *Matt Sauer, *Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Nolan Martinez, Juan Then

On the DL (nothing serious): *Domingo Acevedo, *Freicer Perez

================================================

So out of the 21 starters on the four minor league teams currently, I have seven starred as top prospects, but the crazy thing is that of the other 14, at least 8 of them are currently pitching amazingly, like should-be-promoted-if-there-wasn't-a-log-jam-above level.

Also these are mostly guys Cashman poached from other organizations: Swanson/Green (from TEX for Beltran along with Dillon Tate), King (from MIA for Caleb Smith/Garrett Cooper and int'l spending money), Sears (from SEA for Nick Rumbelow, along with 18 year old Juan Then).

Sears is a good example, pitching 7 scoreless in low A tonight and leaving with a 1-0 lead. He has a 1.52 ERA through 6 starts (14 hits allowed in 29.2 innings), and was an 11th round draft pick just last summer for SEA, so won't need to be protected for years.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=676664#/career/R/pitching/2018/ALL

 

[jon abbey]

And on a much more currently relevant level, I think Chance Adams' return the other night to last year's AAA dominance (7 scoreless with 10 Ks, final 14 batters retired in a row including striking out the side in the 7th) instantly vaults him back to 6th starter/next man into the rotation if needed, ahead of Sheffield (not quite ready) and reclamation project AJ Cole (who actually has looked OK, but his roster spot must be in danger now).

 

[jon abbey]

Swanson and King both promoted since my last update a few days ago, I updated the list above.

 

[jon abbey]

And now Trevor Stephan (2017 3rd round pick) is deservedly promoted to Trenton, so many promotions so far this year. That AA rotation is loaded now and Acevedo will be slotting in there or in AAA also when he is back soon.

======================

AAA: *Justus Sheffield, *Chance Adams, Erik Swanson, Josh Rogers, David Hale
AA: *Dillon Tate, *Jonathan Loaisiga, *Trevor Stephan, Michael King, Brian Keller
high A: *Albert Abreu, Nick Green, Nick Nelson, Garrett Whitlock, Will Carter
low A: JP Sears, Dalton Lehnen, Rony Garcia

Top prospects in lower league rotations: *Luis Medina, *Matt Sauer, *Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Nolan Martinez, Juan Then

On the DL (nothing serious): *Domingo Acevedo, *Freicer Perez

 

[jon abbey]

Jordan Montgomery is getting Tommy John, so is probably out of the picture until 2020. So this is a good chance to update what I think is NY's pecking order for rotation replacements:

Current rotation: Severino, Tanaka, Gray, Sabathia, German

6th guy: AJ Cole (stashed as an 8th reliever because he has no options, he would almost certainly be stretched out if one of the above five guys goes down)

Emergency fill-in: David Hale (he's already been called up and DFAd twice, and would be the way NY goes if they want to keep that 40 man roster spot flexible)

AAA possibilities: Sheffield, Adams, Swanson, Rogers. That's their order in terms of long-term potential, as far as who is ready right now, it changes all the time but maybe that same order? Swanson and Rogers aren't big prospects but both have been very successful this year (although Rogers got absolutely shelled his last time out).

I think a Cole Hamels deal is probably coming sooner rather than later, assuming Texas is reasonable about the return (Chance Adams/Thairo Estrada and maybe another young pitcher seems like it should work for both sides).

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, also I forgot Jonathan Loaisiga, who was evidently maybe going to start yesterday until the Sunday rainout. He is still in AA and has very little experience but everyone loves his arm and he is already on the 40 man, as is Domingo Acevedo who I should have probably listed also (although right now they have been using him in long relief).

 

[jon abbey]

So with Tanaka going out for an expected month or so, everyone here just got bumped up a notch. NY will need a replacement starter on Friday, and it is looking like the aforementioned Loaisiga, who threw 49 pitches in a truncated AA start today so is on turn for Friday. He is indeed inexperienced, but his 58/4 K/BB ratio this year (45 innings) is quite impressive, so we'll see.

 

[gedman211]

I think a Cole Hamels deal is probably coming sooner rather than later, assuming Texas is reasonable about the return (Chance Adams/Thairo Estrada and maybe another young pitcher seems like it should work for both sides).

I don't see any incentive for Texas to move Hamels until sometime close to 7/31. It's going to be a sellers market for starters of his pedigree. They will drive a hard bargain recognizing that the Y's rotation is looking pretty inconsistent after Severino. I expect Hamels to fetch a decent haul in late July.

 

[jon abbey]

Maybe, Hamels has lost a lot of velocity in recent years and I'm not sure how much of an answer he actually is, especially given his contract and likely cost.

Tanaka going out actually helps NY in terms of being able to evaluate some of their internal possibilities, Loaisiga will be first on Friday. I think Cashman would certainly like to upgrade the rotation, but only at a somewhat fair price.

 

[Apisith]

Hamels is running a FIP of over 5. Yankees would be worst with him IMO. Stupid to give up prospects for him.

 

[jon abbey]

I think the kind of deal that Cashman will try to make is for a cost-controlled SP, Michael Fulmer was the one rumored all winter but someone like Reynaldo Lopez or Blake Snell fits the bill also. For the right guy, NY could give up Andujar plus a pile of younger pitching prospects, 4-5 of them even. Andujar looks to have a lot of potential, but NY could replace him with Drury for this season and then Machado in the winter.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

First, the team absolutely needs a starting pitcher. Second, there's some exaggeration on how dire a situation it is. Tanaka had been somewhat inconsistent and German is doing a fine job replacing Montgomery, who we weren't expecting to be anything more than our 4th or 5th starter.

Severino to CC to Gray (turning it around) to German is more than enough to keep the wins coming through the deadline. No reason for Cashman to rush and get someone today with so many kids with potential to step up and in.

 

[sean1562]

I don’t see the White Sox trading Lopez period. Def not for a package centered around andujar

 

[jon abbey]

Maybe not, but if the White Sox think their window is in 2020 and onward and they can trade Lopez for 5-6 players who will be making an impact by then, it's possible. Obviously anyone like Lopez or Snell will be difficult if not impossible and pricy to pry away, but I think that is the kind of guy Cashman will be willing to give up a mega package for, as opposed to a guy only under team control for a year or two.

 

[jon abbey]

No reason for Cashman to rush and get someone today with so many kids with potential to step up and in.

Yeah, when you start to delve into the possibilities, there are a lot of arms internally who could help the team this year, although more from the bullpen/long relief side than genuine SPs at this point.

So we will see Loaisiga on Friday, he is probably a 4-5 inning guy at this point, but he is only the first of quite a few guys NY has in the pipeline preparing for their hopeful eventual auditions, and maybe some of those auditions will end up being a bit sooner than expected.

The starters are mostly probably not ready yet (Sheffield the one to keep an eye on here) but they have some guys who could be serious bullpen weapons right now waiting in the minors. Kahnle we know (pitching an inning every other day to try to get his velocity up, had some 97s last time), but also Domingo Acevedo (only back a few weeks from a concussion, throwing 3-4 innings in relief right now, but already on the 40 man) and Cody Carroll, plus JP Feyereisen (1.55 in AAA).

Also Chance Adams and Erik Swanson are in the AAA rotation but also could be used as multi-inning/long guys in the bigs, and honestly I could keep going (Trevor Stephan, 2017 3rd round pick, is currently on his fourth level in the twelve months since then, and he is already holding his own in AA, a scoreless outing last night).

So NY has a lot of possible unproven high potential options, going through them like that you can see. So I'm going on record now that Cashman doesn't trade for a big bullpen guy like Herrera or Hand unless the price comes way down which it will not. Unfortunately that probably means that Houston will get Herrera but I don't think that's enough for NY to give up what it would take to get him.

 

[sean1562]

Reynaldo Lopez is 24 and controlled through 2023. He is exactly the kind of player the White Sox would be building around, he has as much control as Yoan Moncada. If everything breaks right for them he is their #2 pitcher behind Kopech from 2020-2023. Maybe Snell would be traded but you would need to trade Justus Sheffield plus like 2 other guys for that to make any sense for the White Sox, and they still might like Lopez more than that. The kid's ceiling is really high, and he is playing pretty well in the bigs. With Fulmer not playing so hot I doubt he gets traded either, the Tigers need somebody to pitch on that team and he is there through at least 2022. Plenty of time to trade him in a season he is playing better

I really don't think you guys will get 4+ years of young cost controlled pitching without making deals you guys dont really want to make. Certainly not while retaining all of Sheffield, Frazier, and Florial. And, while I am sure Clint is still a valuable trade chip, his value has to have diminished at least a bit after his injury problems.

 

[jon abbey]

Reynaldo Lopez is 24 and controlled through 2023. He is exactly the kind of player the White Sox would be building around, he has as much control as Yoan Moncada. If everything breaks right for them he is their #2 pitcher behind Kopech from 2020-2023. Maybe Snell would be traded but you would need to trade Justus Sheffield plus like 2 other guys for that to make any sense for the White Sox, and they still might like Lopez more than that. The kid's ceiling is really high, and he is playing pretty well in the bigs. With Fulmer not playing so hot I doubt he gets traded either, the Tigers need somebody to pitch on that team and he is there through at least 2022. Plenty of time to trade him in a season he is playing better

I really don't think you guys will get 4+ years of young cost controlled pitching without making deals you guys dont really want to make. Certainly not while retaining all of Sheffield, Frazier, and Florial. And, while I am sure Clint is still a valuable trade chip, his value has to have diminished at least a bit after his injury problems.

I was a hundred percent with you until the end of this, but what I'm saying is that I think Cashman might put anyone except Torres (including Andujar) on the table in a deal for the right young cost-controlled SP. I totally agree it will be hard to pry one away, I don't really expect it to happen but if I were Cashman, that would be what I was trying for.

Also Clint Frazier's value has never been higher, he is crushing in AAA (.984 OPS, which would be league-leading by a lot if he had enough ABs) and has looked great in his cameos in NY this year also (1.045 OPS in 3 games). He is still 23 (24 in September).

 

[jon abbey]

Interestingly, along the lines of my post above namechecking a bunch of young Yankee pitchers, Hal Steinbrenner talked to reporters today about the same thing. I'm impressed he mentioned Swanson, who wasn't really on anyone's radar until he started dominating AA this April.

Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch

Speaking with reporters today, Hal Steinbrenner specifically mentioned Jonathan Loaisiga, Domingo German, Justus Sheffield, Chance Adams & Erik Swanson. "We've got some options for August and September, but we’re going to look at anything that comes across our desk."

 

[jon abbey]

Those Hal comments make me think that he and Cashman plan to basically go with what they have now (maybe adding someone like JA Happ if he is reasonably priced) and if they fall short this season, Cashman will be given quite a bit of leeway to go after who he wants this winter, free agents or trades or both.

 

[gedman211]

If I'm Tampa, I don't answer the phone for Snell unless Gleyber is on the table. Maeda or fulmer would probably be easier to acquire. Snell looks like one of the top 5 pitchers in the league and could very well be the difference in an ALCS.

 

[sean1562]

and, as Tampa's front office, with the idea that hey, the yanks can sign Machado to replace Torres, and Snell immediately catapults the Yanks into huge favorite to WS favorite for the next few years.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

If I'm Tampa, I don't answer the phone for Snell unless Gleyber is on the table. Maeda or fulmer would probably be easier to acquire. Snell looks like one of the top 5 pitchers in the league and could very well be the difference in an ALCS.

I don't think Gleyber is on the table for anyone in the league. He wasn't in the offseason, not seeing why it would change now.

 

[sean1562]

I don't think Gleyber is on the table for anyone in the league. He wasn't in the offseason, not seeing why it would change now.

Which is why I would say that Hamels is the only realistic trade target for you guys at the deadline. You shouldn't trade him at all, but teams are gonna want a lot for those young cost controlled guys.

 

[gedman211]

Those Hal comments make me think that he and Cashman plan to basically go with what they have now (maybe adding someone like JA Happ if he is reasonably priced) and if they fall short this season, Cashman will be given quite a bit of leeway to go after who he wants this winter, free agents or trades or both.

Happ makes a ton of sense. Definitely gives them an edge vs. Boston(any half-decent lefty will). Then, in a series against Houston, they try to shorten the game to 5 innings and let the bullpen win it.

 

[jon abbey]

Blake Snell has only gotten better since I started mentioning his name, and TB has a very good system already, but something like Frazier/Andujar/Estrada/Abreu/Medina plus agree on two more pitching prospects would have to at least make them think, that would be keeping Torres and Sheffield. I think that is almost certainly way too much but I also am missing crucial pieces of info here, primarily who Cashman plans to go after this winter, Machado or Harper or both or neither, plus what he really thinks about all of the many pitching prospects up and down the system. Maybe that still wouldn't tempt BOS or NY if they had Snell currently but that is a lot of talent, all with full team control, and anyone's arm can break at any point.

 

[gedman211]

You may be right. And who knows what Tampa's plan is? I'm thinking of what the Sox had to give up for Sale- The #1 prospect in all of baseball, as well as the #15 or whatever Kopech was at the time. Snell isn't Sale of course, but he's looking like a perennial Cy Young candidate. The TINSTAPP philosophy being a favorite of mine, I wouldn't let Snell go unless there was a sure-thing all-star in the package, and that means Torres. If I'm Cashman I trade Gleyber for Snell straight-up. They're both great players, but you need an ace to match up with Verlander and Cole in October. Of course you'll want to try to replace him with Machado, and I'd have to imagine you'd be the favorite to land him. Who else has $300 million dollars? LA maybe?

 

[sean1562]

I could see the Phillies making a run for him, no question. But I agree, the Rays do a pretty good job of developing their own pitchers, they need good young position prospects. Maybe Andujar and Frazier do it

 

[jon abbey]

They're both great players, but you need an ace to match up with Verlander and Cole in October.

I'd say that Severino (https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU201805020.shtml) and Tanaka (https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA201710180.shtml) are OK as 1/2 against Verlander/Cole, but it is the 3/4 where NY most needs to upgrade, that would likely be Morton/McCullers or Morton/Keuchel against CC/Gray right now, maybe Sheffield or German can break into that by the end of the season. Snell would slot in beautifully as a #2 for NY behind Severino, they would be a great 1/2 combo at the top under team control for a long time, health permitting of course.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

The Rays won't get a better package than Andujar and Frazier + lesser prospects. Doesn't matter how badly they would want Torres. Both of those guys jump into their lineup immediately and probably the middle of it.

 

[jon abbey]

Boone just said on the radio that they will know more in the next couple of days but they don't expect Tanaka to be out that long, maybe 3 turns in total, which I believe would mean he's back right around July 1.

 

[jon abbey]

NY has announced they're giving Cessa a start against PHI on Wed, this will allow CC to start against BOS next weekend. Severino will get the third game, and if German pitches well again today, I think they will bump Gray to the next series, which would give him eight days off between starts:

6/24 @ TB German
6/25 @ PHI Loaisiga
6/26 @ PHI Severino
6/27 @ PHI Cessa
6/29 BOS Sabathia
6/30 BOS German
7/1 BOS Severino
7/2 ATL Gray
7/3 ATL Loaisiga
7/4 ATL Sabathia

And then they're back on track. That is official through the PHI series and my guesswork after that.

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, and Tanaka might slot in there somewhere too, but that is premature as of now.