NY rotation 2021

jon abbey

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There will be plenty of time to talk about this year's rotation if and when the season gets going, but I wanted to get the ball rolling here as NY will have quite a few SP decisions to make next winter, two or three of this season's top four will be FAs.

Current rotation (current ages, so add one to all for 2021):

Cole (30)
Paxton (32)
Tanaka (32)
Happ (38)
Montgomery (28)

then some combo of Schmidt/King/Loaisiga/Deivi, 24/25/26/21 respectively.

Paxton and Tanaka are FAs and Happ has a possibly vesting option that now needs to be renegotiated or arbitrated (Joel Sherman column on this today), but German (28) will be back from suspension and Severino (26) should be back from Tommy John early in the season if not the start.

So I will guess they end up keeping one of the three of Paxton/Tanaka/Happ, maybe Happ if they are forced to because of the vesting option. But also it's possible they let all three go (or trade Happ if they need to), especially with how pricy some of the position players are about to get.

Cole (30)
Severino (26)
German (28)
Montgomery (28)
Schmidt/King/Loaisiga/Deivi, 24/25/26/21

And there are more options behind them, Gil and Medina and Yajure and Nick Nelson, all on the 40 man already as is everyone here except Schmidt. So much pitching potential in the system for Matt Blake to work with, getting Cole gives NY more freedom to cycle young guys in behind him until they get some who stick.
 

terrynever

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Next year’s group is worth the wait. Talented and youthful with decent depth. Let Tanaka go, and the others, too.


Cole (30)
Severino (26)
German (28)
Montgomery (28)
Schmidt/King/Loaisiga/Deivi, 24/25/26/21
 

Murderer's Crow

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A lot is riding on Domingo. IF he builds on last year with some consistency then you don't need to potentially overpay for Paxton. However, German Severino and Montgomery aren't exactly the healthiest and most consistent creatures. Long time ago but lets not forget that Severino was falling apart at the end of 2018.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, the problem is with the shortened MLB season and no minor league season, NY has much less information to make these decisions with.
 

terrynever

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Yeah, the problem is with the shortened MLB season and no minor league season, NY has much less information to make these decisions with.
What about the winter leagues? Puerto Rico, Mexico, maybe the DR. If the surge wipes out the 2020 season, are those places safe enough to get some innings in for the young guys?
 

jon abbey

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What about the winter leagues? Puerto Rico, Mexico, maybe the DR. If the surge wipes out the 2020 season, are those places safe enough to get some innings in for the young guys?
I don't know, but it's not the same, much harder to judge the level of competition. Our old buddy Nestor Cortes Jr. had a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings in the Dominican Winter League in between 2018 and 2019, and he was not a guy you want to rely on to fill a rotation spot all season.
 

terrynever

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I don't know, but it's not the same, much harder to judge the level of competition. Our old buddy Nestor Cortes Jr. had a 1.71 ERA in 42 innings in the Dominican Winter League in between 2018 and 2019, and he was not a guy you want to rely on to fill a rotation spot all season.
I have not checked Pandemic figures for Mexico, PR and DR but if there is no MLB season, the winter leagues might get a lot more MLB players.
Off-topic, slightly: Trump’s hasty decision to reopen the country is not only killing thousands of our people, it is threatening whatever chance we had to watch sports this summer. Sorry for the cruel analogy but sports are part of our lives. If we had kept sheltering until mid-June everywhere in the USA, sports leagues would not be in such jeopardy. Along with everything else in America.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think I'd prefer they bring back at least one of Paxton or Tanaka. Even with the injury concerns, I think I'd like Paxton to be that guy. Dunno how much it would cost though.

If the cost is reasonable, I'd bring back both. But it probably won't be.
 

jon abbey

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I think I'd prefer they bring back at least one of Paxton or Tanaka. Even with the injury concerns, I think I'd like Paxton to be that guy. Dunno how much it would cost though.

If the cost is reasonable, I'd bring back both. But it probably won't be.
There's an opportunity cost also, you are blocking everyone behind them with Cole/Severino/German/Montgomery already on board, and Judge/Sanchez/Gleyber about to get pricier.
 

jon abbey

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Also like I said, besides the guys mentioned above, Gil, Medina, Yajure, Abreu, Nelson, all on the 40 man already, plus Roansy Contreras, Alex Vizcaino, Yoendrys Gomez, Osiel Rodriguez, it really is close to an un-ending list. I get that it's a lot easier to let the established veterans go for me than it is in reality, but you have to give the kids at least 1-2 rotation spots to try to fill.
 

EvilEmpire

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There's an opportunity cost also, you are blocking everyone behind them with Cole/Severino/German/Montgomery already on board, and Judge/Sanchez/Gleyber about to get pricier.
I know opportunity cost is a legitimate concern, but after what we've seen recently with lots and lots of injuries, I have a hard time figuring out how to weight it appropriately. Cost is certainly an issue too.

What is the window to be competitive with this group and how long will it last? I think depth and quality in the rotation is worth a bit more in such a window. Besides, as you mentioned earlier, if they must clear 40 man space, go get Lindor or another piece that could help put this team up over the top. :)
 

jon abbey

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And as if there weren't enough question marks, the CBA expires after 2021, something else that makes it even more difficult to plan ahead. As always, glad I don't have Cashman's job.
 

terrynever

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And as if there weren't enough question marks, the CBA expires after 2021, something else that makes it even more difficult to plan ahead. As always, glad I don't have Cashman's job.
You’re already doing Cashman’s job, Jon. Every night. Pay is lousy.