So we would rule day/night double headersCease daytime: 3.73 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Cease night: 5.31 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
Bello day: 6.94 ERA, 1.75 WHIP
Bello night: 3.06 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
If we trade for Cease without sending Bello, maybe they can teach each other something. Or we can platoon them.
I have been unexcited by Cease but I would probably do that deal if Eloy is in it too.Yeah...'22 was an amazing year, but a lot of scary stuff when comparing '23 to it. He lost over 1 mph on basically all his pitches. Despite throwing his slider slower, it lost significant amounts of horizontal & vertical movement, & he also lost movement on his slower curveball.
He's also an extreme fly ball pitcher (20th percentile groundballs) who walks a lot of people (25th percentile) & allowed a lot of hard hit balls last year (23rd percentile), all of which can be rough at Fenway.
He was also straight up awful after the 1st time through the order last year:
1st time: 2.58 ERA
2nd time: 5.74 ERA
3rd time: 6.25 ERA
This is a huge departure from '22:
1st time: 2.28 ERA
2nd time: 1.44 ERA
3rd time: 3.58 ERA
This is not a big surprise as his secondary pitches took a large hit & with a slower fastball & without the elite slider that made him so lights out in '22, it's going to get a lot rougher a lot quicker. So the question is...is there a reason his pitches weren't nearly as good in '23 that is fixable & will make his '24 stuff more like his '22 stuff, or is 2 years of Cease not that exciting of an acquisition?
Yeah ATL needs a starter. They lost out on Nola (kinda) and now Gray.I have been unexcited by Cease but I would probably do that deal if Eloy is in it too.
Even despite the so-so year, Cease put up elite swinging strike and zone contact rates, especially for a starter. Would be pretty great to extend him if possible but not optimistic now that he’s a Boras guy.
It also seems like it was pretty miserable to be a White Sox player last year. Regardless, he’s probably playing for Atlanta or the Dodgers by tomorrow.
I would have been fine with that contract, and 5/125 for Montgomery. I don’t have a good feeling about the Yamamoto sweepstakes.Sonny Gray's numbers are very scary against the AL east, but this is a very reasonable contract for a guy who's been a 3-6 win pitcher (outside Covid) that last 4 years.
I share your unexcitement with Cease and I would extend that sentiment to Jimenez as well. He averages less than 100 games a season due to never ending injuries, is not a good defender, and isn't cheap, at $16.5 and $18.5 million the next two years. I would predict that at some point he will have a standout season, but I think it will be frustrating process waiting for the stars to align.I have been unexcited by Cease but I would probably do that deal if Eloy is in it too.
Even despite the so-so year, Cease put up elite swinging strike and zone contact rates, especially for a starter. Would be pretty great to extend him if possible but not optimistic now that he’s a Boras guy.
It also seems like it was pretty miserable to be a White Sox player last year. Regardless, he’s probably playing for Atlanta or the Dodgers by tomorrow.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1730581162173534282According to @JeffPassan, the Red Sox have turned their focus away from Shohei Ohtani.
“The Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and New York Mets, who were among the initial group of suitors, have turned their attention to other players, sources said. Among those confirmed by sources to be still in the bidding: the Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Angels.”
Yup. I wanted it but was never going to happen. Rooting for the Cubs here but still think it’s going to be the Dodgers, like everyone expects.Not surprising, but looks like Ohtani isn't happening.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1730581162173534282
I hate to be as simplistic as “Yamamoto or bust” but that’s pretty much my position right now. I don’t want Snell and doubt he wants us anyways. Montgomery would be a fine secondary addition but if he’s your headliner…meh. Bellinger will be too costly and I don’t really trust him. I’d take Imanaga as a secondary option. Stroman falls in the Montgomery category for me as well.There are lots of different paths to a good offseason. All-in on Ohtani may have been one of them, but also probably the riskiest if the price ends up in the stratosphere. I do think they need to go the extra mile if they have 2-4 other impact players they want—whether that be in FA or trades. The three up-the-middle blue-chip prospects + tremendous depth give them a lot of leeway to selectively splurge and fill in cheaply over the next few years.
This is pretty much where I am at. It certainly is Yamamoto or bust. They need to win this bidding war then go on to sign or trade for a #2 starter. Those two top rotation spots are critical for success.I hate to be as simplistic as “Yamamoto or bust” but that’s pretty much my position right now. I don’t want Snell and doubt he wants us anyways. Montgomery would be a fine secondary addition but if he’s your headliner…meh. Bellinger will be too costly and I don’t really trust him. I’d take Imanaga as a secondary option. Stroman falls in the Montgomery category for me as well.
We’ll see what the trade market yields. Breslow may need to make his biggest impact there if Yamamoto signs elsewhere.
On potentially trading prospects:The top free-agent pitcher was posted by his Nippon Professional Baseball team just before Thanksgiving and has reportedly been meeting with all interested teams via Zoom this past week. However, he doesn’t plan to meet with teams in person until after Winter Meetings end on Thursday.
At the moment, it seems like top prospects Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel and Roman Anthony are off the table, but never say never, especially with new leadership in charge. Breslow admitted he’s leaning on his staff for evaluations of prospects in trades, while also acknowledging his fresh set of eyes might convince him a particular player’s value is not as high as the team thinks.
“I think it can cut both ways,” Breslow said at the GM Meetings. “I don’t have the emotional attachment having been part of the decision to draft the guys or to acquire them. With that, though, comes the possibility that I’m not seeing the total picture, though. The further away these guys are from the big leagues, the harder it is to project future performance. So that’s why we’ll lean into others who do know these players far more intimately than I do.”
Nick Yorke, Miguel Bleis and Ceddanne Rafalea are all potential options to be traded. If the Red Sox want to go for a big splash, does a mega-package with Verdugo, Houck and two or three of those prospects get it done?
If they sign Yamamoto, I don’t expect them to sign another big FA SP. If they don’t sign Yamamoto, I’m fearful of a couple Story like contracts for guys who may be good but who don’t have the upside we need.I don’t think signing Yamamoto and Montgomery is terribly realistic. Allocating $400M to two pitchers probably isn’t in the cards after the Price / Sale debacle. Montgomery or Burnes and someone like Manaea / Lugo / Wacha seems more realistic to me.
This is where I'm at too, but I don't think it's going to be easy. I do think they'll push their chips all in and offer a ton, but so will the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets. It's very possible the Sox come in with one of the highest or the highest offer and he'll just prefer to play for another team. Hopefully Breslow can do what he did with Taillon and Stroman and the relationship with Yoshida can work in our favour.I'm 100% in on "Yamamoto or bust". This is going to sound like hyperbole, but I think he is the most important FA acquisition this team needs in a very long time. They have a desperate need for a #1 starter. This guy is it. He's young. He's electric. He costs only money, which the Sox have lots of - both in terms of real dollars and in space in their payroll. He's EXACTLY what they need. He also gives them a splash, which they need too. He fits in EVERY SINGLE WAY. The need is there. The opportunity is there. And then they can use their minor league chips to improve elsewhere.
It will cost a TON of money. So be it. THIS is what you spend the money on. This guy right here.
Yamamoto or bust.
Are there many people advocating for both Yamamoto and Montgomery?I don’t think signing Yamamoto and Montgomery is terribly realistic. Allocating $400M to two pitchers probably isn’t in the cards after the Price / Sale debacle. Montgomery or Burnes and someone like Manaea / Lugo / Wacha seems more realistic to me.
And also the worst, if it’s a 10–12 year deal.Yamamoto isn't anything like Sale or Price.
Sale was 30 when they had extended him, and he was coming off a year where his innings load was reduced due to injury. Yes they won the WS in 2018, but you could already see warning signs.
And Price was also 30 when they signed him.
Yamamoto is 25. They'll be getting the very best years of him if they sign him.
Yes of course even if the Sox are the highest bidder, he could always choose to sign elsewhere. But the Red Sox need to make him by far their #1 priority and be willing to spend whatever it takes - outbid everyone and then IF he still chooses to go elsewhere, so be it. You can't MAKE him come here of course. But you want to give him an offer he can't refuse.This is where I'm at too, but I don't think it's going to be easy. I do think they'll push their chips all in and offer a ton, but so will the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets. It's very possible the Sox come in with one of the highest or the highest offer and he'll just prefer to play for another team. Hopefully Breslow can do what he did with Taillon and Stroman and the relationship with Yoshida can work in our favour.
I'd guess a Cease / Bieber / Burnes. And I think it would take one of the big three prospects for them."If the Red Sox want to go for a big splash, does a mega-package with Verdugo, Houck and two or three of those prospects get it done?"
Get WHAT done? A "big splash"? For whom?
Sure but by years 7-12 his cost won't be nearly as bad compared to what starting pitchers will be paid at that point in time, given how salaries are rocketing upward.And also the worst, if it’s a 10–12 year deal.
Was replying to this….Are there many people advocating for both Yamamoto and Montgomery?
I mean, maybe. But who knows how many HH will subscribe to NESN at that point and how that will impact the teams revenues? It’s no guarantee that revenue will continue to skyrocket, all the RSN stuff would make me a little nervous to give out too many huge deals that go far beyond the current CBA.Sure but by years 7-12 his cost won't be nearly as bad compared to what starting pitchers will be paid at that point in time, given how salaries are rocketing upward.
I was including trades in that, not just FA signings, but wasn’t clear about it so hopefully have clarified.Was replying to this….
“Montgomery would be a fine secondary addition but if he’s your headliner…meh”.
Yes. But this is what it's going to take to sign him. Pretty much all long-term deals suck, I mean this is practically a given at this point--aside from Manny's deal, though I guess you could argue his last year was a bit of a headache, though his production never dipper. However, none of these deals have ever really hamstrung a franchise.And also the worst, if it’s a 10–12 year deal.
Then you are against signing big ticket free agents. Hard stop. Which is fine. But a guy like Yamamoto doesn't come around every offseason. If the only thing that he costs is money (and FSG has BILLIONS, so don't worry too much about where they're going to get their next meals), you find a dump truck, fill it with dollars and park it in front of his house and beg him to play for you.I mean, maybe. But who knows how many HH will subscribe to NESN at that point and how that will impact the teams revenues? It’s no guarantee that revenue will continue to skyrocket, all the RSN stuff would make me a little nervous to give out too many huge deals that go far beyond the current CBA.
I'm pretty sure that's exactly what's going on. Unless Seattle decides to pony up for Snell, or someone on the second-tier gets a too-good take it or leave it offer, there should be a feeding frenzy as soon as Yamamoto is off the board.At this point it makes some some sense for Montgomery, Stroman, etc. to wait out the Yamamoto auctions and then let the losing bidders turn their attention toward them. Same with the teams looking to trade guys like Cease.
Well if Yamamoto isn't signing next week, the Winter Meetings are going to be a big tease, after this week has been fairly quiet too.At this point it makes some some sense for Montgomery, Stroman, etc. to wait out the Yamamoto auctions and then let the losing bidders turn their attention toward them. Same with the teams looking to trade guys like Cease. Hopefully that's how it goes down because it would suck to put all of your eggs in the Yamamoto basket and either lose out or get forced into an insane contract.
Another vote for this position. With exclamation marks:!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!It certainly is Yamamoto or bust.
My vote is certainly not Yamamoto or bust. Too many question marks for that. One way or the other, I think the Sox need two top 3 SPs this off-season. Hopefully they have acquired one, either via trade or FA signing before Yamamoto makes his decision.At this point it makes some some sense for Montgomery, Stroman, etc. to wait out the Yamamoto auctions and then let the losing bidders turn their attention toward them. Same with the teams looking to trade guys like Cease. Hopefully that's how it goes down because it would suck to put all of your eggs in the Yamamoto basket and either lose out or get forced into an insane contract.
Of the three, give me Burnes. Cease has an extra year of control over Burnes, but his command issues worry me. I want no part of Bieber and his injuries and diminished velocity.I'd guess a Cease / Bieber / Burnes. And I think it would take one of the big three prospects for them.
I think with Yamamoto's age, he might not want a 10 year deal. I'd guess that he would want to be able to be a free agent again at some point before he turns 30. Maybe there'll be some sort of 7-8 year deal, with an opt-out after 3 that would allow him to become a FA again at 28 if he's successful, or 32-33 at worst.Yes. But this is what it's going to take to sign him. Pretty much all long-term deals suck, I mean this is practically a given at this point--aside from Manny's deal, though I guess you could argue his last year was a bit of a headache, though his production never dipper. However, none of these deals have ever really hamstrung a franchise.
This metaphor has to be singled out for its spectacular quality.Yamamoto and his Wave Motion Gun of an arm...
I was just wondering to myself if maybe Burnes & Woodruff are bffs & trading for Burnes & signing Woodruff in tandem could lead Burnes to want to extend in Boston. You know, if the Yamamoto/Imanaga duo falls through.Also in the only money department, we should really throw a bunch at Brandon Woodruff. Some version of the Paxton deal at like double the size would make sense. He’s out for likely all of 2024 but a 4/$60 deal could still feel like a steal.
Seeing as to how the Red Sox signed not only Pedro's brother but also his buddy and that worked out pretty well...I was just wondering to myself if maybe Burnes & Woodruff are bffs & trading for Burnes & signing Woodruff in tandem could lead Burnes to want to extend in Boston. You know, if the Yamamoto/Imanaga duo falls through.
As someone who rushed home every day from first grade to watch Star Blazers, I really appreciated this reference.Yamamoto and his Wave Motion Gun of an arm
I believe that unless it's written into the contract that the team will relinquish rights at X time, the team that signs Yamamoto will have control of him for at least 6 years, same as any other player fresh into the league. So I can't imagine any opt-outs after 3 years will be in the cards. More likely, if he gets an opt-out, it will coincide with when he'd reach six years of service time around age 31. Still a fine time to jump into the market for a second bite at the apple, as long as he has fulfilled expectations.I think with Yamamoto's age, he might not want a 10 year deal. I'd guess that he would want to be able to be a free agent again at some point before he turns 30. Maybe there'll be some sort of 7-8 year deal, with an opt-out after 3 that would allow him to become a FA again at 28 if he's successful, or 32-33 at worst.
I don't think it would be wise to give up one of those three players for those three pitchers. I'm not convinced Cease is someone worth targeting given the White Sox ask at the trade deadline. He got hit a lot harder last year, lost a mile per hour across all of his pitches and his struggles to command his fastball in the zone likely contributed to a lot of that. It feels like an injury waiting to happen. Bieber has even larger velocity drop issues and I like Burnes but his performance does not live up to the reputation he has, which was built on his amazing cy young season. I want pitching upgrades but I'd be upset to see one of the big three go for these guys.I'd guess a Cease / Bieber / Burnes. And I think it would take one of the big three prospects for them.
My prediction on one of these threads last week for YY was 9yr/$252m, with an option to opt out after yr 3 and again yr 6.Of the three, give me Burnes. Cease has an extra year of control over Burnes, but his command issues worry me. I want no part of Bieber and his injuries and diminished velocity.
I think with Yamamoto's age, he might not want a 10 year deal. I'd guess that he would want to be able to be a free agent again at some point before he turns 30. Maybe there'll be some sort of 7-8 year deal, with an opt-out after 3 that would allow him to become a FA again at 28 if he's successful, or 32-33 at worst.
Next time there’s an “unquestionable” FA signing I’ll be 100% on board.I get that his stuff is great and he's only 25, but isn't there always a significant question of how well any NPB player will transition to MLB? How are we so confident that he won't end up as a ~4 FIP #2 type? If you're throwing $300+mm at him or "whatever it takes" you're expecting an unquestionable #1.
I imagine that if the player wants an opt out after a few years, someone will certainly be willing to give it to him. If there are as many bidders as rumored to be, than the player can make more demands. I suspect it could depend on the team; he may not require an opt out if he signs with the Dodgers or Yankees but think he’d be more likely to want one from the Blue Jays or Mariners (although a NTC could suffice).I believe that unless it's written into the contract that the team will relinquish rights at X time, the team that signs Yamamoto will have control of him for at least 6 years, same as any other player fresh into the league. So I can't imagine any opt-outs after 3 years will be in the cards. More likely, if he gets an opt-out, it will coincide with when he'd reach six years of service time around age 31. Still a fine time to jump into the market for a second bite at the apple, as long as he has fulfilled expectations.
Wouldn’t say we stopped worrying but all the ingredients are there for an ace. And he’s only 25 so what you see next year probably isn’t the best you’ll see. There’s projectability here that is intriguing. He certainly may not hit his projections but the fact that half the league is falling over themselves to sign him leads me to believe that everyone is pretty comfortable lining up the cash piles for him.I'm sure that I must be missing something, but when did we stop worrying about the transition variability of NPB players? It really seems like people are penciling in Yamamoto as a sure-fire #1 ace of aces type. I get that his stuff is great and he's only 25, but isn't there always a significant question of how well any NPB player will transition to MLB? How are we so confident that he won't end up as a ~4 FIP #2 type? If you're throwing $300+mm at him or "whatever it takes" you're expecting an unquestionable #1.