Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

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HomeRunBaker

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Ok, just go out there and put up a superstar season first.
That's not how the second contract works though. Unless Jaylen falls on his face, which is unlikely since he fought through his big challenge last season, he's going to get paid the max of what is allowed based on his upside and future projections on his next contract.
 

bowiac

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We'll see. By year four, you pretty much are what you are. If he doesn't make a huge leap this year, he's not worth anything close to a deal like that.
Perhaps not, but they may need to give him that contract to keep him, just given how NBA economics work.
 

HomeRunBaker

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We'll see. By year four, you pretty much are what you are. If he doesn't make a huge leap this year, he's not worth anything close to a deal like that.
With so many kids entering the league at age 19 and 20 I refuse to believe that a player has peaked at ages 22 and 23. There are reasons why championships are competed for by veteran teams with their star players being primarily in their late 20's/early 30's. Kawhi, Steph, Harden, Giannis......I'd say very few elite players were at their peak at the age of 22/23 in their 4th year. The market is the market......if the Celtics don't max Jaylen somebody else will because that is going to be his market value unless something bizarre occurs this year.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That's the logic that gets you an Otto Porter or Andrew Wiggins deal. I don't get why that's a good thing.
It also gets you the 4 guys I mentioned above. Wiggins is the anomaly of being so bad that he can't be moved at age 23......Porter didn't work out and his contract quickly moved. You simply cannot allow young talented players to walk for nothing in this league since they are so difficult to acquire in the first place.
 

benhogan

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It also gets you the 4 guys I mentioned above. Wiggins is the anomaly of being so bad that he can't be moved at age 23......Porter didn't work out and his contract quickly moved. You simply cannot allow young talented players to walk for nothing in this league since they are so difficult to acquire in the first place.
So much can happen over the next year, let's see how Jaylen and the team progress.

I like that Danny lets guys go to RFA. Has it ever backfired on him?
 

lexrageorge

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So much can happen over the next year, let's see how Jaylen and the team progress.

I like that Danny lets guys go to RFA. Has it ever backfired on him?
The only downside I could come up with is that the player feels unappreciated and bolts during his UFA year. But the team has a few years to repair the relationship, so I'm not sure that should be a big concern when deciding whether a rising 4th year player should be extended.
 

HomeRunBaker

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The only downside I could come up with is that the player feels unappreciated and bolts during his UFA year. But the team has a few years to repair the relationship, so I'm not sure that should be a big concern when deciding whether a rising 4th year player should be extended.
Yes, most/all players now have recognized that this is a business from their HS/AAU/Sneaker recruiting experience and/or have been schooled by their representatives in that these are all business decisions by both parties. In this case it makes sense for Ainge to wait since Jaylen is not a Tier 1 guy so any regression/injury risk as well as additional flexibility next summer for Ainge is enough to take on the limited risk of Jaylen being "super pissed" at the organization. This isn't a Rozier-type situation at all.
 

ggreene

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So much can happen over the next year, let's see how Jaylen and the team progress.
Will be interesting to see how Brad doles out minutes this year. He has pretty much limited players to 30-32mpg. With Brown, Tatum, and even to some extent Hayward all looking to prove themselves for upcoming contracts will Brad extend those max minutes. If he doesn't will there be some hard feelings?
 

JakeRae

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There are also cap reasons not to extend him. A max extension now caps out the team even if Hayward walks or negotiates a discounted extension. Keeping his salary cap number at his cap hold frees up a lot of room in those scenarios to add talent and then go over the cap to keep Jaylen.
 

Captaincoop

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It also gets you the 4 guys I mentioned above. Wiggins is the anomaly of being so bad that he can't be moved at age 23......Porter didn't work out and his contract quickly moved. You simply cannot allow young talented players to walk for nothing in this league since they are so difficult to acquire in the first place.
All of those guys demonstrated in their fourth year (at the latest) that they were stars. If we get another year like last year from Brown, letting him walk is fine with me (if the alternative is a near-max deal).

I'm not saying he can't or won't make a leap. Just that there is a big leap he has to make. Paying him now is taking a totally unnecessary risk, IMHO.
 

DJnVa

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https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-g-league-reportedly-changes-free-throw-rule-single-shot-will-now-count-for-all-potential-points/
But according to Zach Lowe of ESPN, that is changing in the NBA G League. The NBA's developmental league is experimenting with a new rule this season. Rather than having a player shoot two or three free throws, the league will instead allow players to shoot only a single free throw when fouled. That free throw will count for all of the points a player could have potentially scored on the foul. If a player is fouled on a two-pointer, therefore, he would take one free throw for two points. These rules will be in place for most of each game but will revert back to traditional rules for the last two minutes and overtime.
 

Reverend

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Yes, most/all players now have recognized that this is a business from their HS/AAU/Sneaker recruiting experience and/or have been schooled by their representatives in that these are all business decisions by both parties. In this case it makes sense for Ainge to wait since Jaylen is not a Tier 1 guy so any regression/injury risk as well as additional flexibility next summer for Ainge is enough to take on the limited risk of Jaylen being "super pissed" at the organization. This isn't a Rozier-type situation at all.
If Jaylen Brown of all players can’t or won’t understand it all as business, then I think we can expect the league to more fully devolve (evolve?) into reality soap operas.

Which wouldn’t necessarily be unentertaining.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Saw that John Hollinger has left Memphis front office and is now writing for The Athletic. Perhaps I missed this along the way (I had heard he may be moving along after their 'restructuring' but not certainty on next steps).

Will be interesting to see how he reads now, and what he's learned/done differently. NBA analytics is in a very different place than the last time he was writing publicly....and he knows a lot more about what goes on 'behind the curtain'
 

The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa

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What a wild top of the 2017 draft has been so far.

The #1 pick dumped for nearly nothing after two lost seasons
The #2 pick traded after two disappointing seasons
The #4 pick dumped for less than nothing and told to report to the G league after two awful seasons.

Great job Danny.
It figures this would be the draft where we finally get a #1 pick...
 

bigq

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What a wild top of the 2017 draft has been so far.

The #1 pick dumped for nearly nothing after two lost seasons
The #2 pick traded after two disappointing seasons
The #4 pick dumped for less than nothing and told to report to the G league after two awful seasons.

Great job Danny.
Somehow I had already forgotten that Lonzo was the #2 pick. If Danny was really a genius he would have traded down further to 14 and picked Bam Adebayo or 19 and picked John Collins or 22 and picked Jarrett Allen all of whom are ahead of Tatum in WS/48 and VORP. Tatum is an adequate consolation prize though.
 

lexrageorge

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Adebayo's usage seems too limited to extrapolate over Tatum's. Neither Adebayo nor Jarrett Allen are threats from 3 point range. As for Collins vs. Tatum, that's probably one of those comparisons that probably needs a season or three before drawing any final conclusions.

Also, Guerschon Yabusele has a better WS/48 than Jaylen Brown, which is an indication of the limitations of that particular metric.
 

nighthob

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Somehow I had already forgotten that Lonzo was the #2 pick. If Danny was really a genius he would have traded down further to 14 and picked Bam Adebayo or 19 and picked John Collins or 22 and picked Jarrett Allen all of whom are ahead of Tatum in WS/48 and VORP. Tatum is an adequate consolation prize though.
If he’d ended up with Bam Adebayo instead we’d be studying the top prospects in the 2020 pool hoping for a Boston lottery win.
 

Devizier

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Somehow I had already forgotten that Lonzo was the #2 pick. If Danny was really a genius he would have traded down further to 14 and picked Bam Adebayo or 19 and picked John Collins or 22 and picked Jarrett Allen all of whom are ahead of Tatum in WS/48 and VORP. Tatum is an adequate consolation prize though.
Bigs always look good by the B-R numbers
 

nighthob

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VORP and Win Shares overvalue rebounds and blocked shots. So you get some screwy results.
 

lovegtm

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Somehow I had already forgotten that Lonzo was the #2 pick. If Danny was really a genius he would have traded down further to 14 and picked Bam Adebayo or 19 and picked John Collins or 22 and picked Jarrett Allen all of whom are ahead of Tatum in WS/48 and VORP. Tatum is an adequate consolation prize though.
Is this a serious post? I legitimately don’t want to pile on if you were making a subtle jab at people who rely on fairly useless statistics.
 

bigq

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Is this a serious post? I legitimately don’t want to pile on if you were making a subtle jab at people who rely on fairly useless statistics.
Sarcasm intended both in terms of using statistics to make a silly argument as well as poking fun at Ainge’s ability to identify and land talent in the draft. At this time Tatum is the cream of the crop with respect to the top of the 2017 draft. And by WS/48 and VORP Jaylen Brown doesn’t look that special either from the 2016 draft class but I think he was a great #3 pick as well.

I will work on more constructive posts or at least better use of emojis going forward.

Can the NBA season start already?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Somehow I had already forgotten that Lonzo was the #2 pick. If Danny was really a genius he would have traded down further to 14 and picked Bam Adebayo or 19 and picked John Collins or 22 and picked Jarrett Allen all of whom are ahead of Tatum in WS/48 and VORP. Tatum is an adequate consolation prize though.
Should note that Tatum is #1 in WS overall with 12.0.
 

Kliq

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Very important NBA news: After dissing Shaq's rapping skills on a podcast, Shaq created a 4 minutes diss track to fire back at Damian Lillard. Not sure why a puppet of Shaq is rapping it in the video, but whatever:

View: https://twitter.com/Ballislife/status/1178990204390137856?s=20


Some highlights:

What's in your wallet?
American Express or Visa
Talking like your 'Bron
You ain't even Trevor Ariza

Call me when you get a back to back to back
Why would I wanna be a rapper?
Rappers want to be Shaq

Dame Lillard has organized a response, but I haven't listened to it yet.
 
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