Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al
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HE will be, all he needs to do is wait. The Celtics have no way to get Kemba unless Rozier is off the books, he knows that, and other teams know that. So either they wait, or he signs an offer sheet that he knows the Celtics won't match, either way he has no particular incentive to agree to a S&T unless he wants to go to an over the cap team. Your initial argument involved the Knicks, who are miles under the cap.
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1145040433174765568Probably not an option for the Celtics, but Nene declined his option, so the mid-level bigs pool got larger, which is nice for the Celtics
Or he takes the same deal to move to Charlotte and take the starter's job there as it's available. Shams has actually been reporting that the Hornets are interested in replacing Walker with Rozier.
As for the Knicks their cap situation is irrelevant, their front office can either pay the toll or move on to secondary options. I've no doubt their analytics department has told them that there's not a large difference between Kyrie and Quinn Cook or Ian Clark and they can just pivot that way (and, honestly, it makes more sense pivoting from Rozier to Cook than pivoting from Irving to Rozier).
Except............ the Celtics want to sign Kemba, unless you think both the C's and Kemba are willing to wait weeks to get a deal done. Even then, if NYK want Rozier they'd just make a QO Rozier signs it and the Celtics don't match, there isn't really any increased bid needed like a Brogdon, or even Quinn Cook, because there is no threat of the Celtics matching once Kemba says he wants to be there.
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CHA, is the type of situation where maybe a S&T makes sense, but I can't see a deal that works given Kemba's salary and Rozier's BYC status.
Yup still can afford Kemba and have the room exception. Can go over the cap to sign Theis.
With signing Walker, how much can the C’s pay Theis and how soon can they move him in a subsequent deal?
why would you move Theis?
He was an extremely efficient back-up 5 that shot the 3 at a high % last season, knows Brad's system and is cheap
Theis, Williams, Williams, and FA center X (preferably last name Williams) would start to look like an acceptable 4/5 rotation for a team that's pretty much loaded at the wings.
Pistons favorites to land Derrick Rose.
https://twitter.com/TheFrankIsola/status/1145048041965129728
https://twitter.com/TheFrankIsola/status/1145048041965129728
If Kawhi goes to the LAC and the Celtics hey Kemba they 100% have a chance to win the east.
I think that PHI and MIL will eat them up on the inside with that. I don’t expect anstar but feel like that X needs to be the starter
And I’m not rooting for a Brown grade just saying I hope they can figure out a way to add something, maybe a Lopez type of nothing else lose
I wouldn’t consider that acceptable at all. We lose that position on the floor just about every night.
Sure, but we'd win 1-4 most nights. The 5 is the best position to be weak at in the modern NBA.
Charlotte going full tank and save money mode
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1145074761527111681
@wojespn
Charlotte has declined to exercise qualifying offer on Frank Kaminsky, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent, league source tells ESPN. There's significant interest in Kaminsky in the marketplace
https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1145074761527111681
@wojespn
Charlotte has declined to exercise qualifying offer on Frank Kaminsky, allowing him to become an unrestricted free agent, league source tells ESPN. There's significant interest in Kaminsky in the marketplace
Ok, but it's extremely optimistic to think they are not going to lose the battle at the #4 with a late first round rookie as your primary 4.
Gordon Hayward or Tatum is probably going to be the 4 most minutes. Barring a trade the bulk of the time the Celtics will likely be playing 4 of Kemba/Smart/Brown/Tatum/Hayward
It still doesn't matter who they have as their bigs for next year - this team, even with Walker, is highly unlikely to come close to contending.
Elite bigs who can do everything well are extremely rare/expensive, upper/middle tier players like Horford who offer perimeter scoring/defense as well as credible post play and then there is a pretty large dropoff to the guys who can either do stuff down low such as board, defend & rim protect and others who aren't great at "post play" but can shoot and defend at the perimeter.
The C's shouldn't be trading away any assets such as a three and D wing like Brown or an elite defender like Smart unless they can get one of the first two types of players and there aren't many, if any, on the trade market who fit in the Celtics style of play as well as cap (I am ignoring some wish-cast trades here for sake of practicality).
Define contending. I’ll slot them in behind Milwaukee and Philly. That’s a solid chance at ECF.
Philly without Butler and Harris likely. And Embiid’s health is always iffy. If Kawhi bolts Milwaukee is the only guaranteed team clearly better.
This is very rough and their are lots of moving parts with other teams yet to figure out their rosters but...
Let's call Irving and Walker a wash (Irving is the superior player by just about any measure but given Kemba's cast etc you can make a case that they are pretty close). The big dropoff for the team is no Horford who, conservatively speaking, is probably worth four to five wins and perhaps more. Baynes loss hurts too - lets call that one win.
I will set aside the loss of Morris and Rozier because they were deeply flawed players but, once again, the risk is that their replacements aren't able to to even provide their level of production (mostly Mook) - also improvements from Tatum, Brown and Hayward can offset their lost production but there are still bench minutes to be allocated.
So assuming Kemba = Kyrie in terms of wins, Horford and Baynes absences costs the team roughly five to six wins. Assuming all else equal with the other teams, the I would argue that the Celtics at a 44 win total would slot behind Milwaukee, Philly, Toronto (even sans Kawhi), Indiana and Brooklyn.
Like I said, its still too early to do this with any confidence but despite seemingly getting Walker, this team is considerably more thin than last season. We can wishcast them into the ECF but my personal view is that you try to be conservative if only to manage expectations. We saw how well all the predictions that put last year's squad in the Finals worked out...
I don’t think that it makes a lot of sense to think in terms of subtracting wins or losses relative to last year. That team, for a variety of reasons, was far less than the sum of its parts.
I agree the team is very, very thin at the bigs. They’re a bit deeper on the wing than you’re giving credit for, especially if Hayward is healthier.
This feels like a holding pattern. If Hayward gets healthy and one or both Js pop, you can cash in some chips for a big. Signing a room exception guy and signing Theis to a bit more money gives a lot more options if/when the next player becomes available.
I don’t think the team as is has good odds to make the ECF, but it’s very well positioned to add one more guy if a couple things break well, which is all you can ask for, after what happened last year.
Well I accounted for your view that the Celtics underperformed their talent level by calling Kyrie and Kemba a wash and discounting the contributions by Morris as well as Rozier. Using recent data, subbing in Walker for Irving costs you about ~ one win (depending on your metric) and replacing Morris with a lesser player is also worth about one win - so the Celtics may actually finish closer to 42 or 43 wins.
In any event, you are right that there are lots of things that can happen between now and the start of the season that may vault the Celtics win expectations higher. That said, given what we know now, its highly likely that they lose, at least, a few wins from last season's total.
If I had to summarize I think even with the evolution in appreciating Al Horford, we collectively still underrate what sort of impact he has on a team. The guy isn't just skilled - he is incredibly savvy and that makes those around him better. I think everyone remaining on the roster is going to feel his loss as the season goes on but who knows.
I just think those hoping for the ECF for this team are being a bit aggressive but YRMV.
This is a good conversation. It is damn tough to guess what kind of bump we see from the Js without the bad karma. We also don't know what kind of lift we see from GH, with a proper offseason and a decrease in the ankle jitters.
We don't know what the draftees and TL will contribute.
We know for sure that a floor coach, glue guy, and overall positive influence is gone in Horford. That's gonna hurt on both ends.
But Danny isn't done. They have other options beside "sign 4.5M big plus minimums". Not all chapters have been written on this offseason.
Yabu is filler in French (ie. that croissant has plenty of chocolate yabu in it)
a cheap Theis is an efficient bench piece (adv off/def 110/102.6). Not sure why he gets so little respect around here, never bitches about PT, plays hard.
https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/theisda01.html
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OTOH, Charlotte won 39 games last season. And the supporting cast he will have in Boston would wipe the floor of Walker's teammates 9 games out of 10.
Should we merge this thread with the 2019-2020 thread?
Anyway, I respect Theis for what he is. The point is more that even with Yabu, the Celtics just don't have enough filler salary, which is why every proposed trade ends up involving Smart. I'm down with signing Theis to a reasonable contract, and then either keeping him, or having a piece you can part with in trades without throwing up in your mouth.
This is a reasonable pessimistic view. The more optimistic view would be to look at the 2017-18 playoff run. You are losing Horford, Baynes, Rozier, Morris... but gaining Walker, Hayward, Theis, some kids, a mystery room-level big, and maybe improved versions of Smart, Tatum, and Brown. It may still be a step backward, but not necessarily a huge one.
This would be a bit of a surprise....Mirotic returning to Europe
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27083485/reports-mirotic-leave-nba-euroleague
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27083485/reports-mirotic-leave-nba-euroleague
Good point. Player fit is very important, and we can all agree that the Celtic 10 player rotation never fit last season.
Plus the Celtic roster and EC rosters are not nearly complete for next season
But its not just about players. Brad also received a huge learning lesson last season. I can't imagine he has ever been criticized so much in his career. He never had a post season presser where he admitted fault while w/the Celtics. I imagine we'll get an uptick on efficient rotations, ball movement and defensive effort next season driven by CBS.
The other optimistic view is that Brad took a team with Horford, IT, KO, Crowder; Avery Bradley, Amir, 2nd year Marcus Smart, and rookie JB to 53 wins.
https://as.com/baloncesto/2019/06/29/nba/1561827373_717645.html?id_externo_rsoc=comp_tw
6 years and 70-80M per reports makes it much more understandable...
I also would prefer to live in Barcelona over Milwaukee, if the money were close or better, as it seems to be.
This is where I'm at. Yes they've taken a step back in on-paper talent but I wouldn't be surprised if they take a step forward simply due to less dysfunction and hopefully improvements from the wings.
Yeah, if they have a competent defensive center (big if!) they’re going to win a decent number of games just from having a strong defensive system and bought-in players. I’m not super-high on the current iteration of this team otherwise, but I do expect defensive effort and execution to improve a good deal.
Playoff upside is a lot lower, because everyone tries then. That’s where they’ll need more talent at the 5 along with young guy leaps.
Kawhi gone from the East, Philly is still lolPhilly, Bucks regression
Playoff upside is higher
Playoff upside is higher
Well looks like that Barca number was wrong:
https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1145365697989529601
Wonder if it was someone trying to figure out equivalent? Since Euro salaries are usually reported post-tax?
https://twitter.com/Sam_Vecenie/status/1145365697989529601
Wonder if it was someone trying to figure out equivalent? Since Euro salaries are usually reported post-tax?
I hate the Sixers with all my being, but they were the closest team in the entire playoff pool to beating the eventual champs. One of the all time bounces away from forcing game 7 OT. (Yes, they may lose some important players, but they're clearly coming off a very solid season.)
Last year's team underperformed their point differential by about 3 wins. They could take a step back due the loss of Horford, and end up at around 49 wins by mostly just treading water elsewhere. We'll see how they fill out, but I expect I'll end up projecting them at around that range.
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