Let's say BB stays on until he retires. What does that mean for the franchise?

Jimbodandy

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I'm not sold yet on the Pats being sustainably that good (ie, 2nd in league good). But the 2 upcoming Buffalo games will be telling.
I'm concerned a bit about the secondary. We look great now, but at some point an opposing OL will be able to protect their QB. Not sure that Mills and our slow LBs will look as good against guys in a nice pocket.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm concerned a bit about the secondary. We look great now, but at some point an opposing OL will be able to protect their QB. Not sure that Mills and our slow LBs will look as good against guys in a nice pocket.
The secondary definitely won't be as good when the Pats aren't getting pressure. But of course that's true for every team.

Just FWIW, here are the main DBs' stats this year when thrown against:

Jackson: 75 targets, 50.7%, 6.4 yds/target, 1 td, 7 int, 36.4 rating
Mills: 48 targets, 58.3%, 7.0 yds/target, 5 td, 0 int, 114.8 rating
Bryant: 24 targets, 70.8%, 8.1 yds/target, 0 td, 0 int, 95.0 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 55.6%, 7.2 yds/target, 1 td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Dugger: 44 targets, 65.9%, 5.8 yds/target, 3 td, 3 int, 75.6 rating
Phillips: 38 targets, 60.5%, 5.9 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 63.8 rating
McCourty: 19 targets, 36.8%, 7.5 yds/target, 0 td, 2 int, 24.3 rating

Throwing against NE's safeties is a very bad idea. Throwing at Jackson is a very bad idea. The other corners, however, can be picked on.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm concerned a bit about the secondary. We look great now, but at some point an opposing OL will be able to protect their QB. Not sure that Mills and our slow LBs will look as good against guys in a nice pocket.
Relatedly, I worry about how we will match up against teams that spread us out and play a lot of 3WR or even 4WR sets. We play a lot in either base defense or big nickel with McCourty/Phillips/Dugger plus two CBs in Mills and JCJ. Can the big nickel cover well enough against teams with good WR depth and talent? If we need to get another CB on the field, will smart teams just attack that guy (Myles Bryant, Joejuan Williams) relentlessly? Part of how we've dealt with these issues so far is being very zone heavy for a BB team and that's another potential concern. If we face a QB and scheme that just really feasts on zone, do we have the depth of talent in the secondary to man up on them and get stops?
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Sure, in any given game a team may present a bad matchup and that might lead to a loss, but we have an elite pass rusher and an elite CB. That's generally a recipe for success.

After this weekend and the unknowns around Barmore's health the run D is a much bigger concern. We've all witnessed playoff nightmares where the D can't stop the run and can't stop 3rd down conversions.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Sure, in any given game a team may present a bad matchup and that might lead to a loss, but we have an elite pass rusher and an elite CB. That's generally a recipe for success.

After this weekend and the unknowns around Barmore's health the run D is a much bigger concern. We've all witnessed playoff nightmares where the D can't stop the run and can't stop 3rd down conversions.
I don't really know what playoffs nightmares you're referencing but I'm not all that worried about run defense. KC and Buffalo are by far the best other teams in the AFC and if they want to go run heavy against us then I'll take my chances.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Coaching is one thing, but assuming the Pats finish with 10-11 wins, is there even a case that anyone other than William Stephen Belichick is Executive of the Year? Crushed the draft, crushed free agency (especially if Jonnu keeps improving), is anyone even close? I think there’s a strong chance it’s unanimous.

Now…has anyone ever won both Coach AND Executive of the year?
Kingsbury in Arizona is the only one who has a shot, IMO. They are sitting at 9-2, with Case Keenum going 2-1 over their last 3 games. Hopkins has been hurt, Edmonds got hurt, C. Jones got COVID, Watt is done and they keep rolling along.

He is the only one who deserves votes besides BB this year, IMO.
 

Cellar-Door

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If I were worried about a playoff matchup, it would be a team isolating our LBs on their RBs, I trust Hightower in coverage against anyone quick about 0.0%.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I don't really know what playoffs nightmares you're referencing but I'm not all that worried about run defense. KC and Buffalo are by far the best other teams in the AFC and if they want to go run heavy against us then I'll take my chances.
Tennesse and Henry running for 182 in 2018.
Ravens in 2010. 221 yds.
 

Dogman

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Kingsbury in Arizona is the only one who has a shot, IMO. They are sitting at 9-2, with Case Keenum going 2-1 over their last 3 games. Hopkins has been hurt, Edmonds got hurt, C. Jones got COVID, Watt is done and they keep rolling along.

He is the only one who deserves votes besides BB this year, IMO.

Do you mean McCoy?
 

Dogman

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Honestly, I had to look it up to be sure. Colt McCoy is currently starting for and winning games for a 9-2 team with the injuries and Covid. Amazing, really.
 

speedracer

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The secondary definitely won't be as good when the Pats aren't getting pressure. But of course that's true for every team.

Just FWIW, here are the main DBs' stats this year when thrown against:

Jackson: 75 targets, 50.7%, 6.4 yds/target, 1 td, 7 int, 36.4 rating
Mills: 48 targets, 58.3%, 7.0 yds/target, 5 td, 0 int, 114.8 rating
Bryant: 24 targets, 70.8%, 8.1 yds/target, 0 td, 0 int, 95.0 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 55.6%, 7.2 yds/target, 1 td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Dugger: 44 targets, 65.9%, 5.8 yds/target, 3 td, 3 int, 75.6 rating
Phillips: 38 targets, 60.5%, 5.9 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 63.8 rating
McCourty: 19 targets, 36.8%, 7.5 yds/target, 0 td, 2 int, 24.3 rating

Throwing against NE's safeties is a very bad idea. Throwing at Jackson is a very bad idea. The other corners, however, can be picked on.
This is kind of mind-boggling. Even if you zero out JCJ's interceptions, he has a 75.4 rating when targeted.

I don't expect that JCJ would get the Richard Sherman treatment just yet, but that surplus of targets is insane. Maybe if you're an opposing QB, think about looking at your #2/3 receiver or in someone else's direction in marginal situations???
 

pedroia'sboys

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The secondary definitely won't be as good when the Pats aren't getting pressure. But of course that's true for every team.

Just FWIW, here are the main DBs' stats this year when thrown against:

Jackson: 75 targets, 50.7%, 6.4 yds/target, 1 td, 7 int, 36.4 rating
Mills: 48 targets, 58.3%, 7.0 yds/target, 5 td, 0 int, 114.8 rating
Bryant: 24 targets, 70.8%, 8.1 yds/target, 0 td, 0 int, 95.0 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 55.6%, 7.2 yds/target, 1 td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Dugger: 44 targets, 65.9%, 5.8 yds/target, 3 td, 3 int, 75.6 rating
Phillips: 38 targets, 60.5%, 5.9 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 63.8 rating
McCourty: 19 targets, 36.8%, 7.5 yds/target, 0 td, 2 int, 24.3 rating

Throwing against NE's safeties is a very bad idea. Throwing at Jackson is a very bad idea. The other corners, however, can be picked on.
I wonder how those stats would look if broken out from week 6, when they went to a primarily zone defense. They went from playing zone 38% of the time to almost 60% a drastic shift. I know Mills has looked much better in zone compared to man.
 

Saints Rest

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The secondary definitely won't be as good when the Pats aren't getting pressure. But of course that's true for every team.

Just FWIW, here are the main DBs' stats this year when thrown against:

Jackson: 75 targets, 50.7%, 6.4 yds/target, 1 td, 7 int, 36.4 rating
Mills: 48 targets, 58.3%, 7.0 yds/target, 5 td, 0 int, 114.8 rating
Bryant: 24 targets, 70.8%, 8.1 yds/target, 0 td, 0 int, 95.0 rating
Williams: 18 targets, 55.6%, 7.2 yds/target, 1 td, 0 int, 96.8 rating
Dugger: 44 targets, 65.9%, 5.8 yds/target, 3 td, 3 int, 75.6 rating
Phillips: 38 targets, 60.5%, 5.9 yds/target, 3 td, 4 int, 63.8 rating
McCourty: 19 targets, 36.8%, 7.5 yds/target, 0 td, 2 int, 24.3 rating

Throwing against NE's safeties is a very bad idea. Throwing at Jackson is a very bad idea. The other corners, however, can be picked on.
And this is why, I think, they lost to Dallas and TB. If a team can go three deep at WR, the Pats are in trouble unless Judon and Barmore simply blow it up on every play.
If I were the Bills, I don’t think I’d run much.
 

Red Averages

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And this is why, I think, they lost to Dallas and TB. If a team can go three deep at WR, the Pats are in trouble unless Judon and Barmore simply blow it up on every play.
If I were the Bills, I don’t think I’d run much.
Maybe. But Brady was 22/43 for 269 yards with 0 TD. The top 3 WR had 75, 63 and 55 yards.

Dak tore them up, but it was Lamb, Cooper and Schultz.
 

Ale Xander

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passes Shula for 1st all alone on the all-time list
 

Jimbodandy

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This thread should be locked. Or at least, the title should be changed to "I can't believe that we were worried about Bill's fastball".

Man just coached a game on the road on Monday night where his hand-picked QB threw it three times...and won. He gives zero fucks, but he throws fastballs.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Somehow, BB came out with one gameplan that was good enough for Canton OH and Canton MA high school.

Un-fucking-real.
 

FL4WL3SS

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This thread should be locked. Or at least, the title should be changed to "I can't believe that we were worried about Bill's fastball".

Man just coached a game on the road on Monday night where his hand-picked QB threw it three times...and won. He gives zero fucks, but he throws fastballs.
No way, this thread started the run, you close it now and you fuck with fate.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Before we give BB a second induction to Canton, it needs to be noted that he came very close to blowing this game by getting cute. N'Keal Harry is a 3rd year player who has never before returned a punt in the NFL, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to send him back there in the middle of a gale. If they lose this, Bill and Harry are the obvious goats.

Can't call this his greatest game when one loucky bounce combined with a massive unforced error by the coaching staff would have made it a loss.
 

joe dokes

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Before we give BB a second induction to Canton, it needs to be noted that he came very close to blowing this game by getting cute. N'Keal Harry is a 3rd year player who has never before returned a punt in the NFL, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to send him back there in the middle of a gale. If they lose this, Bill and Harry are the obvious goats.

Can't call this his greatest game when one loucky bounce combined with a massive unforced error by the coaching staff would have made it a loss.
Do we really believe that: a) the team wasn't watching the same weather forecast we saw; and b) that Harry hadn't been successful at it in practice all week?
(And yes, I saw the quote from Curran(?) about his pregame difficulties).
Harry's bad play was failing to get out of the way, which strikes me as much more about execution than unfamiliarity or difficulty catching the ball.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Do we really believe that: a) the team wasn't watching the same weather forecast we saw; and b) that Harry hadn't been successful at it in practice all week?
(And yes, I saw the quote from Curran(?) about his pregame difficulties).
Harry's bad play was failing to get out of the way, which strikes me as much more about execution than unfamiliarity or difficulty catching the ball.
Harry was not prepared to execute that play. BB incorrectly believed that he was. That’s a coaching fail.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Do we really believe that: a) the team wasn't watching the same weather forecast we saw; and b) that Harry hadn't been successful at it in practice all week?
(And yes, I saw the quote from Curran(?) about his pregame difficulties).
Harry's bad play was failing to get out of the way, which strikes me as much more about execution than unfamiliarity or difficulty catching the ball.
If we made a poll before the game asking "pick one Pats receiver you do not want fielding punts tonight" who doesn't think Harry wins in a landslide? I mean I guess he's carved out a niche of some sorts in the running game, but he has not exactly shown an ability to execute consistently without making mental blunders. It still shocks me as I write this that they put him in that situation where he even had a chance to screw it up.

Other than that one thing, I have no complaints about the coaching last night, although I have to say I was surprised they couldn't throw occasionally even with the wind. But they proved they didn't need to.
 

IdiotKicker

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I think the thread title begs the question of whether Bill has ever been fastball-dominant, where I believe that games like last night indicate he's more of a Greg Maddux-type who relies on deception and changing speeds, and sometimes pitches his best games when his fastball isn't working. The real issue will be if Bill loses his command and control of his offspeed pitches, as last night was clearly a night where he didn't have the high heat working.
 

BringBackMo

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Before we give BB a second induction to Canton, it needs to be noted that he came very close to blowing this game by getting cute. N'Keal Harry is a 3rd year player who has never before returned a punt in the NFL, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to send him back there in the middle of a gale. If they lose this, Bill and Harry are the obvious goats.

Can't call this his greatest game when one loucky bounce combined with a massive unforced error by the coaching staff would have made it a loss.
Tough crowd.

BB earned his first induction in part by calculating that “X player is a Y and has never before Z’ed, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to….” If we want to ding him for each specific instance where it doesn’t work, fine. But it has worked out a lot more often than it hasn’t. What the hell, let’s give him the second induction.
 

lexrageorge

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Before we give BB a second induction to Canton, it needs to be noted that he came very close to blowing this game by getting cute. N'Keal Harry is a 3rd year player who has never before returned a punt in the NFL, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to send him back there in the middle of a gale. If they lose this, Bill and Harry are the obvious goats.

Can't call this his greatest game when one loucky bounce combined with a massive unforced error by the coaching staff would have made it a loss.
I will also say that the Pats may have left 4 points on the board when they went for 2 straight runs when they had first down on the Bills 11 early in the 4th quarter. With the wind at their backs and a defense that was adjusting, I think they should have thrown the ball one of those downs. The 4 points could have loomed large.

But, even blowout wins have play calls that we can second guess. The Harry punt return was a big coaching mistake, almost as bad as the fake punt in the Jets playoff loss.
 

Ralphwiggum

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It worked but I still hate the fact that they didn't have a screen or some other conservative pass play to use on a couple of the third and 5+, or to switch it up on first down here and there. The defense did what they had to do on two straight Bills red zone trips in the fourth, though.

I will say, though, that even though I didn't like not passing at all, I love the fact that Belichick doesn't give a fuck what anyone else thinks about his game plans.
 

Eagle3

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I will also say that the Pats may have left 4 points on the board when they went for 2 straight runs when they had first down on the Bills 11 early in the 4th quarter. With the wind at their backs and a defense that was adjusting, I think they should have thrown the ball one of those downs. The 4 points could have loomed large.
Totally agree with this. The Bill's were coming with everyone. Fake the handoff and have Henry or Smith slip out. Allen managed to complete 15 passes, I think Mac is more than capable.
 

cornwalls@6

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Before we give BB a second induction to Canton, it needs to be noted that he came very close to blowing this game by getting cute. N'Keal Harry is a 3rd year player who has never before returned a punt in the NFL, yet somehow Bill thought it would be a good idea to send him back there in the middle of a gale. If they lose this, Bill and Harry are the obvious goats.

Can't call this his greatest game when one loucky bounce combined with a massive unforced error by the coaching staff would have made it a loss.
Yeah, but they didn’t dodge a bullet. The worst case outcome occurred, and Buffalo scored a touch down as a result. Then the game went on from there. How was it a lucky bounce, and how did the massive unforced error almost cost them game?
 

BaseballJones

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I absolutely LOVED last night's game for a million reasons. I loved that Buffalo was gearing up to stop the run and brought the house every play and the Pats still ran for 222 yards.

That said...Tennessee ran for 270 last week against the Pats and lost. Running for huge yardage doesn't mean a whole lot *necessarily*. The Pats did only score 14 points, and were one Allen completion away from losing the game. They gave themselves NO margin for error, really. It's a very very difficult way to try to win a football game.

And I was a little discouraged in the fourth quarter when Buffalo figured out something on defense. I don't think their next matchup will look anything like this so I don't want to press into this game too much. I just think we ought to remember that one play at the end and the Pats lose, and we are all looking at BB's "masterpiece" very very differently, wondering just WTF he was doing never passing at all. People would call him "arrogant" and all that. But they hold on to win and it's a game for Canton.
 

koufax32

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I would like to make a suggestion that the OP, Eddie Jurak, get the tag line “The Trent Dilfer of SoSH.” This thread is our equivalent of TD saying after that famous Chiefs loss that the Patriots just aren’t good anymore.
 

Red Averages

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I absolutely LOVED last night's game for a million reasons. I loved that Buffalo was gearing up to stop the run and brought the house every play and the Pats still ran for 222 yards.

That said...Tennessee ran for 270 last week against the Pats and lost. Running for huge yardage doesn't mean a whole lot *necessarily*. The Pats did only score 14 points, and were one Allen completion away from losing the game. They gave themselves NO margin for error, really. It's a very very difficult way to try to win a football game.

And I was a little discouraged in the fourth quarter when Buffalo figured out something on defense. I don't think their next matchup will look anything like this so I don't want to press into this game too much. I just think we ought to remember that one play at the end and the Pats lose, and we are all looking at BB's "masterpiece" very very differently, wondering just WTF he was doing never passing at all. People would call him "arrogant" and all that. But they hold on to win and it's a game for Canton.
Seems like this is not true. The Patriots turned the ball over in their own red zone and made a few very bad penalties. Despite those errors they won.
 

Captaincoop

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One thing I was thinking about this morning: it's not like the weather report is set in stone a week in advance. Right up until gametime, there was a chance they would show up and the wind would die down and be a non-factor, and the Pats would have had to throw the ball like a normal game. I wonder if they saw the reports early in the week and started planning for a game without a passing attack, or if they shitcanned 3/4 of the playbook on the day of the game. Of course, as usual, we will never know.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I would like to make a suggestion that the OP, Eddie Jurak, get the tag line “The Trent Dilfer of SoSH.” This thread is our equivalent of TD saying after that famous Chiefs loss that the Patriots just aren’t good anymore.
Eddie Jurak - They hate their coach
 

jezza1918

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Seems like this is not true. The Patriots turned the ball over in their own red zone and made a few very bad penalties. Despite those errors they won.
Agreed. And to add on I'd say the Bills were incredibly lucky not to turn the ball over more...there were at least 3 of Allen's passes that could've been INT's, two of which were within a hair of being easy pick 6's. Bill is always about limiting damage to a certain extent - and last night his gameplan was that to the absolute extreme. He was betting his defense wouldn't give up a single legit TD, and he won that bet. I think if you play that game the exact same way Pats win 7 or so out of 10 times.
 

Captaincoop

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Agreed. And to add on I'd say the Bills were incredibly lucky not to turn the ball over more...there were at least 3 of Allen's passes that could've been INT's, two of which were within a hair of being easy pick 6's. Bill is always about limiting damage to a certain extent - and last night his gameplan was that to the absolute extreme. He was betting his defense wouldn't give up a single legit TD, and he won that bet. I think if you play that game the exact same way Pats win 7 or so out of 10 times.
The Pats played a 7-4 opponent, on the road, and there was approximately 1 minute of game time where Patriots fans were concerned we might lose. Pretty nicely done in my book.
 

johnmd20

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I would like to make a suggestion that the OP, Eddie Jurak, get the tag line “The Trent Dilfer of SoSH.” This thread is our equivalent of TD saying after that famous Chiefs loss that the Patriots just aren’t good anymore.
Better tagline would be, "Chicken Little." The sky is always falling. And even when it's clearly not falling, it's still falling. Jurak can only talk about the 1 or 2 plays that the Pats did poorly on and ignores all the plays that went well.

Meanwhile, this team has the best record in the AFC with a rookie QB.

But, what about Harry?
 

lexrageorge

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Seems like this is not true. The Patriots turned the ball over in their own red zone and made a few very bad penalties. Despite those errors they won.
One of those penalties was totally made up. Philips pushing Allen to make sure he goes out of bounds is not a penalty; you want your defenders to make that play 100% of the time.
 

jezza1918

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The Pats played a 7-4 opponent, on the road, and there was approximately 1 minute of game time where Patriots fans were concerned we might lose. Pretty nicely done in my book.
That's what I was trying to explain to my brother, who was adamant the game plan was too risky. Too many people view these things as an all or nothing, zero sum type thing. Even if they had given up a game winning TD the game plan isn't designed to win 10/10 times, it's designed to give your team the best chance to win. And IMO, they were clearly in that position last night.
 

Captaincoop

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The Bills hit that one long pass on the final drive, and literally for the next 4-5 plays I thought maybe they could win the game. That's it. From when Harris broke the long run to that point, the Pats were pretty much in control. A friend texted me during the game, "Never before has a 1-point lead felt this secure", and I second that.
 

Eddie Jurak

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One of those penalties was totally made up. Philips pushing Allen to make sure he goes out of bounds is not a penalty; you want your defenders to make that play 100% of the time.
That was an egregiously wrong call.

I don't have a problem with the rules put in to protect QBs - I think it is in the best interests of the NFL to protect the QBs.

HOWEVER... on that play Allen was stretching the ball out and trying to pick up a first down. Hitting a runner on the sideline WHILE HE IS TRYING TO GAIN YARDS needs to be allowed under any circumstances.