I think this is right.
Static Tatum and Booker are verrrry debatably “not Top 20.” Just normal growth into men almost certainly puts them both easily in the Top 15, barring catastrophic injury.
It's debatable, but almost any thing after the top 5-10 players is going to be debatable.
Tatum was a borderline top 10 player pre bubble. They don’t need Nesmith or Langford to be a contender with that player as their best player, but they will need continued progression from Jaylen and Smart along with health from Kemba. Of course, odds are heavily in favor of Tatum being, at worst, a borderline MVP candidate within the next 2 years. This team is going to be one of the elite NBA teams for the foreseeable future. I’m not predicting a dynasty run or even a single championship, but outside of health problems, we will be in the mix every year for the next 5+ years.
Tatum's assist rates since entering the league
You don't usually need a top 10 guy, you almost always need a top 10 or better guy. It's not formulaic, it's what we have seen through decades of NBA history. Upper echelon talent almost always wins. With the exception of the ‘04 Pistons, there isn’t a team in the past 30 years that won a title without a top 5 guy... closest debates there are probably the '08 Celtics and the '11 Mavs (I would personally put KG and Dirk at that level, but YMMV). But aside from that, titles have been won by teams led by LeBron, Curry/Durant, Kawhi, Duncan, Kobe, Shaq, Jordan, and Olajuwan. And those guys typically had a lot of help too. Sure, there's a roster construction out there with static Tatum that could maybe win a title, but the odds are slim. The real path for another banner is through Tatum ascending to that top tier.
This. It feels like, post-Garnett, we got so used to being the team without a superstar that people forgot what it’s like.
Needing a top 10 guy is a function of the soft cap and max contract. Any team that could compete without a top 10 player would be too expensive to put together or would have 2 top 40 players on rookie contracts and 2 top 40 players on close to max contracts which isn't really sustainable long term. If the C's were healthy this year, they might have had a chance. Granted, some people think Tatum was already a borderline top 10 guy this past season. I think those people may want to actually list their top 10 players. In the playoffs, yeah. I think he's a top 10-15 player this season.
I agree that he's currently in the 10-15 range. The nine players I think are clearly better are listed below (in no order). After these nine, you can start having some interesting debates.
There is no way I’m accepting Jokic or Luka as “clearly better” than Tatum given their defensive capabilities. Ditto for Durant until we see what his post-Achilles form looks like.
Lebron/Jordon really skews this.
I agree that "clearly" may have been too strong but you won't find many of these published rankings that have Tatum ahead of either of those guys (not that a published ranking means anything).
True although I would argue that Tatum remains a little underrated nationally although his play in the bubble has started to correct that. I firmly believe he’ll be a consensus top 10 player after this season concludes. The counting stats that people care about are about to go up now that Kemba/Hayward are hurt/gone.
Lilliard, Butler, KAT.
You can add Embiid and maybe Gobert to your list and I think those are the players I was talking about where you can have those interesting debates.
I do think if you look at Tatum's 2019-20 regular season, it is accurate that Tatum is in that 1A group that includes players 10-15. Even in the playoffs, Tatum got schooled by Butler during the closeout situations. And, to be fair, there's probably 5 more "1B" players vying for that same 1A group (Embiid and Gobert come to mind, maybe Simmons), even if I'd rather have Tatum over them.
I think Kawhi as a top 5 guy is very generous to the 19 Raptors, and just flat out wrong on the 14 Spurs. I think top 10... sure you could argue nobody has won without a top 10 guy a lot easier
The thread starter literally began with the premise that Tatum was not as good as he was after the covid break was over. I agree with you that barring injury he's going to be an MVP level player.
In some top ten discussions? You do know that he finished 11th in All NBA voting, yes? He's already in all the top ten discussions.
Giannis
If he was voted to #11 All-NBA he LITERALLY was "discussed" in the top 10 already.
Never said he wasn't discussed. I said he wasn't in the discussions much, and he's not. Call him underrated if you want.
Yup. Giannis made a pretty big leap from Year 3 to Year 4. Tatum and he are obviously different players but I think we all agree that we're about to see a superstar stretch his wings.
I think people are struggling with the fact Boston's lineup last year forced certain choices on them. They had four high USR players and there's only one basketball. So to keep Gordo engaged they used him as a point forward. This meant less ballhandling chores for the other guys. But his playoffs (essentially) ended as they began, and Tatum suddenly inherited more of the responsibility. And he shined.
The '08 Celtics didn't have a guy who at that point was a top 10 player, but they had three hall-of-famers who were still all-stars (no other NBA team had more than two all-stars that year), plus quality depth and an emerging star in Rondo. And even that '08 team....well...Garnett was first-team all-NBA.
Guys I will grant were clearly better than Tatum last year, pre bubble. Note, this doesn’t include players who didn’t play last year. If it did, I’d add Steph to the list. I wouldn’t add Durant because I don’t know what player Durant will be going forward. This isn’t ordered.
Yeah Garnett was a top-10 guy that year. My first statement was playing off what the other poster said.
I agree with all of this. Top 6 or 7 is the key. And 4 guys in the top 40 is our most realistic path, with one of them being near the MVP conversation. It's not crazy talk.
That‘s what makes it sort of a trick question. If Tatum simply stays just this good but does so with higher usage and more responsibility on a nightly basis, then he’s already in the conversation.
