Olynyk and my lying eyes

[luckiestman]

Can anyone explain what KO is giving the offense that makes RPM love him so much? He grades out as the second best center on offense. Even on nights where he individually looks to be getting abused on both ends of the court when you check the box score his raw plus minus will shock you. Is it just so simple that the lane isn't clogged and he is a decent passer? I'm a KO fan and even I am surprised by what the stats say about team performance when he is on the court. He LOOKS like an awful defender but the reality is that he isn't bad. I like this RPM stat too so I don't want to throw it out. I like it a lot better than PER which I view as some made up junk. Any thoughts on this?

 

[chilidawg]

Even more surprising is that he grades out well defensively also. I don't see enough games to really help here, but the internet consensus certainly doesn't match the numbers.

You'd think that if he was playing as well as the numbers indicate he'd be getting more minutes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

On offense he spaces the floor, and keeps the ball moving, it's a key part of the space and pace offense Stevens wants to run. He's also competent at taking less mobile bigs off the dribble creating rotation mismatches. Zeller doesn't have the ability to do either which usually means more size in the paint for defending teams.
On defense, he's a better defender than Zeller, better positionally in particular at preventing players from getting to the rim on the dribble, and he forces turnovers at about 5x the rate in steals, while getting about the same percentage of blocks, and other stops at the rim.

 

[Kliq]

RPM is a shitty stat that works out well for Olynyk because he mainly rolls with a Celtics bench unit that crushes other East bench units.

 

[Koufax]

The reason that he doesn't play more minutes is that he accumulates fouls at a high rate.  He is often in foul trouble.  To my lyin' eyes he's being treated like a rookie by the refs, but I'm prejudiced.

 

[chilidawg]

RPM is a shitty stat that works out well for Olynyk because he mainly rolls with a Celtics bench unit that crushes other East bench units.

Then why don't Thomas and Crowder have similar numbers?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Olynyk is a highly skilled player who does some incredible things for a 7 footer. Like his spin move. Like shooting and passing.

The problem is his lack of explosiveness and strength and the fact that he is still figuring out what he can do and can't do.

I never think he gets abused on the offensive end - he just gets too passive sometimes. As for defense, he's neve going to be a good one-on-one defender but he does do some good things.

So my eyes see things differently than you do. I still think KO will make an all-star team at some point but he's probably not going to be a "great" player.

Which is not a knock on him.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

RPM is a shitty stat that works out well for Olynyk because he mainly rolls with a Celtics bench unit that crushes other East bench units.

For what it's worth, RPM is adjusted to account for the quality of teammates and opposing players.  

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Olynyk making an all-star team? That's a super bullish take on his potential. I think he's a decent player but there's a Grand Canyon level gap between being a solid rotation guy, which he is now, and being one of the top 4-5 forwards in the conference.

No doubt that part of why Olynyk's numbers are so good is because Stevens can pick and choose his spots with him.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

No doubt that part of why Olynyk's numbers are so good is because Stevens can pick and choose his spots with him.

I came to post this. There are some terrible matchups out there for KO and Brad is very good at recognizing how to mix/match his 11-man rotation with no talent dropoff only matchups to factor. Few coaches have the luxury/curse of being able to manage a lineup such as this.

Yeah, KO making an All-Star takes a special kind of creativeness to even fathom.

 

[NHbeau]

 Not to go all Bill Simmons but it's pretty possible KO is a "good player for a bad team" type of guy. On a poor team he's a top option for offense simply because he doesn't have much talent ahead of him taking minutes. On a contender though? The book is obviously still out on KO. He's obviously has a limited skill set right now, and limited physical tools. Neither of those have prevented someone from a good NBA career as they mature and learn their limits. It's good to see a year to year improvement on both ends of the floor no matter how small in certain area's. For where he was picked KO looks like to be a pretty decent "hit". And a even a contending team can do worse than KO as your 3rd big. 

 

[luckiestman]

 Not to go all Bill Simmons but it's pretty possible KO is a "good player for a bad team" type of guy. On a poor team he's a top option for offense simply because he doesn't have much talent ahead of him taking minutes. On a contender though? The book is obviously still out on KO. He's obviously has a limited skill set right now, and limited physical tools. Neither of those have prevented someone from a good NBA career as they mature and learn their limits. It's good to see a year to year improvement on both ends of the floor no matter how small in certain area's. For where he was picked KO looks like to be a pretty decent "hit". And a even a contending team can do worse than KO as your 3rd big. 

 
I don't think that fits. Olynyk isnt putting up big traditional numbers, the team is putting up numbers when he is in because the opposition has to honor his shot or something. The situation Im describing is akin to people saying Hibbert isnt a good rebounder but then someone doing second level analysis saying "yeah, but the team grabs more boards when Hibbert is out there"

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Olynyk making an all-star team? That's a super bullish take on his potential. I think he's a decent player but there's a Grand Canyon level gap between being a solid rotation guy, which he is now, and being one of the top 4-5 forwards in the conference.

 
Sure I'm bullish (I'd rather be bullish on Cs players than relegating them to the junk heap of "JAGs" where possible), but I don't think KO has to be a top 4-5 forward to be in the All-Star game in one year, particularly given injuries or other guys who want the rest. 
 
Also, I mean KO's career path hasn't been superhype college recruit etc. etc. etc.  From what I understand, he came to Gonzaga as a huge project and has gotten somewhat better every year.  If he continues to get a little better over the course of his career, and since he has some talent on the offensive end, is it really that difficult to envision a year where KO puts up big numbers - maybe not on a winning team - but numbers nonetheless?
 
I mean did any of us 10 years ago sit around thinking that Kyle Korver was going to make an All-Star game (not saying that he is on a bad team but more to the point of how players can develop at their craft)?
 
edit:  reading this real GM thread on his is funny:  seems like some people have him has a perennial All-Star; others have him out of the league next year.  It's not even a "love him or hate him" thing - it's hard to remember another player who has such a wide range of evaluations.

 

[Kliq]

I think Olynyk's best case scenario is like a slightly-rich man's Mareese Speights, a talented offensive player that can come off the bench for a good team and score 15-20 points, but also is a defensive liability and will probably not see a lot of time in crunch time. 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I would be more bullish on Olynyk if he was younger. He's old for an NBA second year player. (And if he got a shave and a haircut.)

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
Sure I'm bullish (I'd rather be bullish on Cs players than relegating them to the junk heap of "JAGs" where possible), but I don't think KO has to be a top 4-5 forward to be in the All-Star game in one year, particularly given injuries or other guys who want the rest. 
 
Also, I mean KO's career path hasn't been superhype college recruit etc. etc. etc.  From what I understand, he came to Gonzaga as a huge project and has gotten somewhat better every year.  If he continues to get a little better over the course of his career, and since he has some talent on the offensive end, is it really that difficult to envision a year where KO puts up big numbers - maybe not on a winning team - but numbers nonetheless?
 
I mean did any of us 10 years ago sit around thinking that Kyle Korver was going to make an All-Star game (not saying that he is on a bad team but more to the point of how players can develop at their craft)?
 
edit:  reading this real GM thread on his is funny:  seems like some people have him has a perennial All-Star; others have him out of the league next year.  It's not even a "love him or hate him" thing - it's hard to remember another player who has such a wide range of evaluations.

I think part of it is that he looks awkward looking. Kinda Gangly, white guy with floppy hair and jerky movements.
 
The numbers seem to always like him more than the eye test (even in college), and it also seems like when he makes mistakes on D they are obvious and get remembered, while when he plays good defense (which he has done a good amount of this year, he's taken a leap forward defensively) it is the quiet kind of getting good position, getting into lanes and forcing the pass back out. He doesn't make many big blocks at the rim, instead he keeps guys from catching it at the rim.
 
On offense one really notable thing is that even in a down year he's shooting 34% on 3s. There are only 3 guys in the league doing that who play C at all and 2 of them play mostly PF (Bosh and Bonner).
 
I also think age isn't as important with Olynyk since he came to the game late, usually age is mostly a shorthand for "how many years of high level coaching does he have". He's never going to be explosive athletically, but his MO has been rapid improvement at Gonzaga in his first few years playing basketball. Even in the pros, his defense has taken a massive step up in one year.

 

[TheRooster]

It seems like KO has started to realize that he's a true seven footer and that on defense that can often be enough.  In other words he has his arms straight up when he's in the paint much more often than he did last year.  Seems minor, but when height/length is your strength, you better use it.  BTW I couldn't find his wingspan but it seems significantly bigger than Zeller's.  True?

 

[nighthob]

No. But neither are particularly long (they're both well below average for seven footers).

 

[Cellar-Door]

It seems like KO has started to realize that he's a true seven footer and that on defense that can often be enough.  In other words he has his arms straight up when he's in the paint much more often than he did last year.  Seems minor, but when height/length is your strength, you better use it.  BTW I couldn't find his wingspan but it seems significantly bigger than Zeller's.  True?

Weirdly Zeller has the 3 inch longer wingspan, while Olynyk has a 3 inch longer standing reach.

 

[nighthob]

Weirdly Zeller has the 3 inch longer wingspan, while Olynyk has a 3 inch longer standing reach.

Zeller has wider shoulders. They're both alligator armed, though, and seem better suited to bench depth.

 

[ALiveH]

Our Zeller has a 7-0 wingspan, but he often gets confused with his alligator arms brother who has a 6-10 wingspan.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Our Zeller has a 7-0 wingspan, but he often gets confused with his alligator arms brother who has a 6-10 wingspan.

7-0 for a center is extremely alligatorish when your counterparts are all 7-4 and up which is most of the starting 5's in the league.

 

[Cellar-Door]

7-0 for a center is extremely alligatorish when your counterparts are all 7-4 and up which is most of the starting 5's in the league.

Average is about 7'3"

 

[TheRooster]

Standing reach seems more important for contesting shots, no? 

 

[Cellar-Door]

Standing reach seems more important for contesting shots, no? 

Maybe some. Wingspan is considered important for defenders because it closes down driving and passing lanes.
Honestly neither is as important as lateral agility and good positioning.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Standing reach seems more important for contesting shots, no? 

I prefer wingspan and quickness. Being long isn't effective on its own if you don't have the quickness/agility to contest shots and cut off penetrating lanes.