Only God Can Judge Judge

BaseballJones

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He hits them so freaking far....does it matter what park he's hitting in when he launches them 430 feet?
 

drbretto

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You'll all have to forgive my general ignorance of all things minor leagues, but after getting a chance to watch this guy work, how was ANY of this a surprise to anyone?

Everything I had read preseason had Benintendi as the consensus obvious pick for ROY. Judge barely got a mention. This guy is bigger than Gronk. The first time I saw him standing at the plate, my immediate reaction was that this guy was going to hit 900 home runs. I don't get how he wasn't the talk of the town during his whole minor league career like Bryce Harper?
 

jon abbey

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You'll all have to forgive my general ignorance of all things minor leagues, but after getting a chance to watch this guy work, how was ANY of this a surprise to anyone?

Everything I had read preseason had Benintendi as the consensus obvious pick for ROY. Judge barely got a mention. This guy is bigger than Gronk. The first time I saw him standing at the plate, my immediate reaction was that this guy was going to hit 900 home runs. I don't get how he wasn't the talk of the town during his whole minor league career like Bryce Harper?
Because size as a hitter in baseball has generally not been an asset when someone is 6'6" or bigger, the strike zone is too big and easy to attack. It's not like he was overlooked at any point, he was a first round pick and has been a top 100 prospect for years, but combine the lack of predecessors at that size with his poor performance when he first came up last year (he struck out in 50 percent of his ABs) and his advanced age for a prospect (he turned 25 in April) and you can start to kind of see why a list like Baseball America dropped Judge all the way to their #90 prospect in February, dumb as that looks now.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects/
 

TheoShmeo

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You'll all have to forgive my general ignorance of all things minor leagues, but after getting a chance to watch this guy work, how was ANY of this a surprise to anyone?

Everything I had read preseason had Benintendi as the consensus obvious pick for ROY. Judge barely got a mention. This guy is bigger than Gronk. The first time I saw him standing at the plate, my immediate reaction was that this guy was going to hit 900 home runs. I don't get how he wasn't the talk of the town during his whole minor league career like Bryce Harper?
The knowledge you seek is upthread. Judge's prior numbers were, in the Latin, meh.
 

drbretto

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Because size as a hitter in baseball has generally not been an asset when someone is 6'6" or bigger, the strike zone is too big and easy to attack. It's not like he was overlooked at any point, he was a first round pick and has been a top 100 prospect for years, but combine the lack of predecessors at that size with his poor performance when he first came up last year (he struck out in 50 percent of his ABs) and his advanced age for a prospect (he turned 25 in April) and you can start to kind of see why a list like Baseball America dropped Judge all the way to their #90 prospect in February, dumb as that looks now.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects/
I appreciate the link and the insight! I realize it was largely from my own ignorance. I'm only seeing the locked in monster at the plate.

I hadn't considered the larger strike zone. I had just figured that the bigger the wingspan, the wider a zone they can hit. I thought it would be more of a question of how the hell you're supposed to pitch to him.
 

moondog80

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I hadn't considered the larger strike zone. I had just figured that the bigger the wingspan, the wider a zone they can hit. I thought it would be more of a question of how the hell you're supposed to pitch to him.
I've often wondered about this. Is the lack of 6'7" hitters in baseball because of the holes in the strike zone, or is it because most 6'7" kids with any kind of athleticism will gravitate to football or basketball?
 

Madmartigan

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Possibly, I am actually really intrigued to see how he does this week going out to the bigger West Coast parks, where I believe he has not played before.
As a team the Yankees are raking at home to the tune of .890 (!) OPS, vs .765 on the road.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I've often wondered about this. Is the lack of 6'7" hitters in baseball because of the holes in the strike zone, or is it because most 6'7" kids with any kind of athleticism will gravitate to football or basketball?
Tony Clark was 6 foot 7.

Bill James had a long, interesting article on this a while ago, and basically concluded that huge guys don't often succeed in the majors because their skill sets don't perfectly fit major league baseball needs. Obviously this is an over-simplification, but they don't age well because their long swings get even longer as they get older, and they're not quite as flexible as smaller players.

I'll have to dig around for the piece, it was pretty interesting.
 

BaseballJones

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As a team the Yankees are raking at home to the tune of .890 (!) OPS, vs .765 on the road.
By comparison...

Runs scored: NYY 353 (5.9/g), Bos 296 (4.8/g)
OPS: NYY .827, Bos .749
HR: NYY 102, Bos 58
ERA: NYY 3.60, Bos 3.99
Runs allowed: NYY 238 (4.0/g), Bos 268 (4.3/g)
Run differential: NYY 115 (1.9/g), Bos 28 (0.5/g)

And yet, the Red Sox are just 4 games back. I would think that even Yankee fans would say that essentially everything has gone right for them so far except Tanaka (heck, even Sabathia has been really good), while so much has gone wrong for Boston (massive injuries, not having their opening day lineup but for a couple of games, etc.), and yet it's just a 4 game separation.
 

terrynever

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By comparison...

Runs scored: NYY 353 (5.9/g), Bos 296 (4.8/g)
OPS: NYY .827, Bos .749
HR: NYY 102, Bos 58
ERA: NYY 3.60, Bos 3.99
Runs allowed: NYY 238 (4.0/g), Bos 268 (4.3/g)
Run differential: NYY 115 (1.9/g), Bos 28 (0.5/g)

And yet, the Red Sox are just 4 games back. I would think that even Yankee fans would say that essentially everything has gone right for them so far except Tanaka (heck, even Sabathia has been really good), while so much has gone wrong for Boston (massive injuries, not having their opening day lineup but for a couple of games, etc.), and yet it's just a 4 game separation.
Not to derail a great thread, but 5 in the loss column, as my old man used to say.

Boston is still the favorite. Everyone knows that. Front runners in horse races usually just set the pace. The Yankees are sprinting right now. Can they go this hard thru October? Will all those stats stay in their favor? Not likely. Judge will not hit .344 this season.
 

moondog80

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Tony Clark was 6 foot 7.

Bill James had a long, interesting article on this a while ago, and basically concluded that huge guys don't often succeed in the majors because their skill sets don't perfectly fit major league baseball needs. Obviously this is an over-simplification, but they don't age well because their long swings get even longer as they get older, and they're not quite as flexible as smaller players.

I'll have to dig around for the piece, it was pretty interesting.
I'm not saying there haven't been any tall guys at all (Frank Howard, Richie Sexson are two others), I just suspect there has to be something to the notion that guys that size are disproportionately drawn to other sports.

In any event, I would love to see the piece, please post if you can find it.
 

jon abbey

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And yet, the Red Sox are just 4 games back. I would think that even Yankee fans would say that essentially everything has gone right for them so far except Tanaka (heck, even Sabathia has been really good), while so much has gone wrong for Boston (massive injuries, not having their opening day lineup but for a couple of games, etc.), and yet it's just a 4 game separation.
This isn't exactly accurate, a bunch of things have gone really well for NY, but they've been without Didi, Sanchez and Chapman for a month each, and Greg Bird, who hit in spring training like Judge is doing now, fouled a ball off his ankle at the end of March and hasn't given them anything so far, the main reason why NY's 1B production has been the worst in baseball.

I don't want to derail this thread*, but I will say that the other day, being the geek that I am, I sat down with NY's current roster and tried to see how many likely potential upgrades they had in house, and BOS fans will not be happy to hear that I think NY could possibly upgrade 7 of the 25 roster spots internally right now, if they so chose.

*I am happy to post this list in a NY roster thread if people are interested.
 

BaseballJones

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This isn't exactly accurate, a bunch of things have gone really well for NY, but they've been without Didi, Sanchez and Chapman for a month each, and Greg Bird, who hit in spring training like Judge is doing now, fouled a ball off his ankle at the end of March and hasn't given them anything so far, the main reason why NY's 1B production has been the worst in baseball.

I don't want to derail this thread*, but I will say that the other day, being the geek that I am, I sat down with NY's current roster and tried to see how many likely potential upgrades they had in house, and BOS fans will not be happy to hear that I think NY could possibly upgrade 7 of the 25 roster spots internally right now, if they so chose.

*I am happy to post this list in a NY roster thread if people are interested.
I'd like to continue this conversation about comparing rosters between the Sox and Yanks as you hint at here, but I know this isn't the thread for it. So yeah, if you want to open a new thread with that in mind, I'd appreciate it.

By the way....it pains me to say it, but Judge seems like a great kid too. Humble, fun, genuine. I can definitely generate plenty of sports hate for him being a Yankee, but it seems hard to really *dislike* the guy for real.
 

terrynever

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This isn't exactly accurate, a bunch of things have gone really well for NY, but they've been without Didi, Sanchez and Chapman for a month each, and Greg Bird, who hit in spring training like Judge is doing now, fouled a ball off his ankle at the end of March and hasn't given them anything so far, the main reason why NY's 1B production has been the worst in baseball.

I don't want to derail this thread*, but I will say that the other day, being the geek that I am, I sat down with NY's current roster and tried to see how many likely potential upgrades they had in house, and BOS fans will not be happy to hear that I think NY could possibly upgrade 7 of the 25 roster spots internally right now, if they so chose.

*I am happy to post this list in a NY roster thread if people are interested.
Please do. That list hints to the long-range foundation for winning that Cashman has been constructing, brick by brick, over the past four years.
 

terrynever

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Interesting. Are they trying to pitch him away in NY and it doesn't matter? I've seen a couple of his homers there, they were to center.
He has squared up at least outside pitches and hit screaming liners to right-center that are gap shots for everyone else but homers for Judge. Girardi keeps talking about how his line drives go farther than almost every other hitter.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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I've often wondered about this. Is the lack of 6'7" hitters in baseball because of the holes in the strike zone, or is it because most 6'7" kids with any kind of athleticism will gravitate to football or basketball?
The 6'7" player faces the same problem that keeps great funneling athletes into other sports--hitting is harder than anything in playing football or basketball. And you can pick up other sports later in life with less trouble if you are a natural athlete. If you decide you want to play baseball at age 13, you are going to have a really hard time facing 13 year old pitching if you didn't face 10 year old pitching three years earlier.

In the absence of air, 45 degree angle. Somewhat lower angle in air, but spin then also plays a part (makes note to dig out Physics of Baseball book)
Well, this is an interesting thought experiment. Swinging the bat would be hard in a pressure suit, but I bet pitching from the windup would be ever harder. And the batter would know you weren't throwing him a curve ball...
 

glasspusher

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Well, this is an interesting thought experiment. Swinging the bat would be hard in a pressure suit, but I bet pitching from the windup would be ever harder. And the batter would know you weren't throwing him a curve ball...
Sounds more like an engineering problem. You could get away with 0.3 atmospheres inside the suits, so you don't have to go crazy on how thick they are. I would suppose shoulders and midsection/hips would have to be the most flexible.

Just did a halfway decent dig through my books, couldn't find The Physics of Baseball.

Think about it- a fastball wouldn't lose that 8 MPH getting to the plate. Might offset the loss of a curve.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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Sounds more like an engineering problem. You could get away with 0.3 atmospheres inside the suits, so you don't have to go crazy on how thick they are. I would suppose shoulders and midsection/hips would have to be the most flexible.

Just did a halfway decent dig through my books, couldn't find The Physics of Baseball.

Think about it- a fastball wouldn't lose that 8 MPH getting to the plate. Might offset the loss of a curve.
Alan Shepard had to swing his golf club one handed when he took it to the moon on Apollo 14.
 

jon abbey

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What's the optimum launch angle for achieving max distance and how far would that ball have gone? Math people?
To get back to this, it looks like the answer is somewhere around 27 or 28 degrees because that it is the launch angle for the three longest HRs so far this year (all between 27.0 and 28.4).
 

drbretto

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Those home run distance trackers, are they projecting it out as if it would land on flat ground or does it only measure until the ball hits something?
 

steveluck7

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I think they do a little bit of both. Balls that hit the LF light towers at Fenway, for example, will have more of an estimate. A ball like Judge's is probably closer to "true" distance from home plate.
I could be completely wrong though!
 

Murderer's Crow

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By comparison...

Runs scored: NYY 353 (5.9/g), Bos 296 (4.8/g)
OPS: NYY .827, Bos .749
HR: NYY 102, Bos 58
ERA: NYY 3.60, Bos 3.99
Runs allowed: NYY 238 (4.0/g), Bos 268 (4.3/g)
Run differential: NYY 115 (1.9/g), Bos 28 (0.5/g)

And yet, the Red Sox are just 4 games back. I would think that even Yankee fans would say that essentially everything has gone right for them so far except Tanaka (heck, even Sabathia has been really good), while so much has gone wrong for Boston (massive injuries, not having their opening day lineup but for a couple of games, etc.), and yet it's just a 4 game separation.
This is definitely true but more a testimony to the fact that it's only 1/3rd of the season. Hard to have huge separation this early. Unless you're the Mets, of course. Sox have done exactly what they needed to do. Weather what should have been their toughest stretch and still be a good stretch away from first.
 

drbretto

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jon abbey

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He has been good on the road so far (.933 OPS in 148 PAs), but his home numbers are so ridiculous that I had to add them here, he currrently has a .400/.519/.886 slash line in the Bronx, 15 HRs in 105 ABs plus 26 walks.
 

Apisith

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And the best thing (for you guys) is that he's only hit 1 or 2 Yankee Stadium cheapies. The rest have been legitimate.
 

jon abbey

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I'm trying not to bump this thread too much, but today he was named the AL player of the month, the AL rookie of the month and he agreed to be in the Home Run Derby. He has won the AL rookie of the month three straight months, first one to do that since Trout in 2012.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I'm trying not to bump this thread too much, but today he was named the AL player of the month, the AL rookie of the month and he agreed to be in the Home Run Derby. He has won the AL rookie of the month three straight months, first one to do that since Trout in 2012.
Oh yeah? Well... in my first RTTS season in The Show, Benintendi edged him out for the ROY. So there!

Seriously, though. He's been incredibly fun to watch, even from this side.
 

brandonchristensen

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Does he have a shot at MVP and ROY?

Has that happened before? Dudes a monster. His build and swing reminds me of Arod.
 

Wingack

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I also heard the other day on Olney's podcast that Judge is on pace to break the rookie record for walks.

Very impressive that even with the amount of times he strikes out, and with how hard he swings, he still will take his walks at this young of an age.
 

jon abbey

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I also heard the other day on Olney's podcast that Judge is on pace to break the rookie record for walks.
Yeah, I wrote that here the other day, even more impressive because the current record is held by Ted Williams at 107. Judge was on pace for 120 before yesterday.
 

Marbleheader

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I wouldn't want him anywhere near the home run derby if he was on my team. Since he's a Yankee, I'm all for him going multiple rounds.
 

YankeesIsrael

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The home run derby curse/jinx is no more than a myth which is based almost solely on a few old cases like Bobby Abreu, and isn't supported by stats. If the Yankees would keep him from participating, it would be like telling him that they believe in some old urban legend more than in his talent and character - Not quite the message I would convey to my most important player. The same goes if he keeps himself out. Speaking of curses, when he appeared on the SI cover many people on social media (not here) wrote stuff like "there goes his career", or "why tempt fate?". How's he doing since (that was on the May 9th issue)?
 

jon abbey

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I could see it messing up Sanchez some but Judge puts on a show in BP every day. Both of them are using NY's normal BP pitcher.
 

terrynever

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The home run derby curse/jinx is no more than a myth which is based almost solely on a few old cases like Bobby Abreu, and isn't supported by stats. If the Yankees would keep him from participating, it would be like telling him that they believe in some old urban legend more than in his talent and character - Not quite the message I would convey to my most important player. The same goes if he keeps himself out. Speaking of curses, when he appeared on the SI cover many people on social media (not here) wrote stuff like "there goes his career", or "why tempt fate?". How's he doing since (that was on the May 9th issue)?
Nobody reads SI anymore. Therefore, no jinx.