Ortiz 500 career homers this year?

santadevil

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Looks like it will be close. Needs to hit about 1 every four games.

I haven't checked his hr/pa pace this year, but he seems to be finding his stroke lately. A good hot streak and he'll have it easily.
 

HriniakPosterChild

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There's always 2016 if it doesn't happen this year.
 
At Comerica Park, facing a Tigers team he's done significant damage to over the years, David Ortiz stepped to the plate for the 425th time this year for the Red Sox. The designated hitter's 2016 option vested with Saturday night's first plate appearance, guaranteeing him $11 million next season, provided Ortiz passes his offseason physical.
 
Papi's option vests for 2016 season
 

VTSox

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Quick back of the envelope projection... he has 23 in 111 games, which puts him at 33.57.  He entered the year with 466, so... yeah, it'll be close.
 
He's hit 34 or more 5 times, including last season.  At least it'll be something to watch and fill seats at Fenway.
 

scotian1

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Hitting them at the rate he has been lately, I believe, will be difficult to maintain. He will likely fall a few short but even if he does reach the 500 mark I can't se him wanting to retire after such a dismal team performance. I bet he would still like to become the only Red Sox to have 4 WS Championships.
 

benhogan

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Seels said:
I think if he does he retires at years end.
Gawd I hope not, he's our best hitter.
 
He's pretty definitive here about playing next season:
 
“I earned it,” Ortiz told WEEI.com’s John Tomase earlier in the week when asked about the milestone. “That’s why I’m playing next year. Because I earned it.”
The DH added, “That’s the way we pretty much agreed to do things. You know me, I get greedy when it comes down to performance. I want to put up numbers. I agreed to do it that way, because if I don’t put up numbers, what would be the reason to continue playing?”
 

NDame616

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Seels said:
I think if he does he retires at years end.
 
What about David Ortiz makes you think he will walk away from baseball when:
-He's still got plenty in the tank
-He's getting $11M next season
 
With September call ups, pitching staffs will be watered down as AAA guys get a showcase, meaning he could get some junk ABs against inferior competition, that could also help
 

jscola85

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I just don't see Ortiz walking away from that much coin when he's still clearly capable of hitting at an above average level.  If the money weren't there, or he was fading hard, I could see it, but neither is the case.  Over the 28 days he's got an OPS of 1.053 - the man is something of a machine.
 

JMDurron

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I haven't been watching as many games as usual this season, but from watching highlights and the games that I do manage to catch, it seems like the NESN broadcasts aren't saying anything about how close Ortiz is to 500 HRs.  Are they actually mentioning it elsewhere in the broadcasts and I've just missed it, or does it strike anyone else as odd that NESN's ignoring this potential marketing angle to get people watch "Big Papi's March to 500", or something similar?  
 

Plympton91

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jscola85 said:
I just don't see Ortiz walking away from that much coin when he's still clearly capable of hitting at an above average level.  If the money weren't there, or he was fading hard, I could see it, but neither is the case.  Over the 28 days he's got an OPS of 1.053 - the man is something of a machine.
And remember, that 11 million keeps going up with every 25 at bats until it reaches $16 million at 550. Everyone who thinks Ortiz might retire should read the above quote from him to Edea. Not happening. We shouldn't see any more of that speculation in any future thread. When writing down 2016 possibilities start with Ortiz at DH everyday. Because, since the break, he's been hitting lefties just fine as well.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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I'd hope he hits #500 early next year, when hopefully there's less miasma around the team.

April would be nice, when anything's still possible for the season.
 

Valek123

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
I'd hope he hits #500 early next year, when hopefully there's less miasma around the team.

April would be nice, when anything's still possible for the season.
Same, hope he hits #500 on opening day at Fenway.
 

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JMDurron said:
I haven't been watching as many games as usual this season, but from watching highlights and the games that I do manage to catch, it seems like the NESN broadcasts aren't saying anything about how close Ortiz is to 500 HRs.  Are they actually mentioning it elsewhere in the broadcasts and I've just missed it, or does it strike anyone else as odd that NESN's ignoring this potential marketing angle to get people watch "Big Papi's March to 500", or something similar?  
Instead of worrying about "500!" they're tracking where he is on the all-time HR list. I'm pretty sure that gets mentioned every time he hits a HR.
 

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VTSox said:
521 (or 522) seems pretty reachable with 1 more season
Is there any particular reason he'd just want to pass Ted Williams?

If he wants to top the Red Sox list, he'd need to hit 90 more which I think I'd possible, but a pretty long shot.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Rasputin said:
Is there any particular reason he'd just want to pass Ted Williams?

If he wants to top the Red Sox list, he'd need to hit 90 more which I think I'd possible, but a pretty long shot.
 
Unless I'm missing something, the most HR by any player who ever donned a Sox uniform is Manny's 555. Ortiz needs 66 more to catch that--still highly unlikely, but slightly less implausible than 90.
 
NM, I see what you mean now. Yeah, he's not going to be the all-time Sox leader. 
 

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
Unless I'm missing something, the most HR by any player who ever donned a Sox uniform is Manny's 555. Ortiz needs 66 more to catch that--still highly unlikely, but slightly less implausible than 90.
 
You're missing something.  Ras is referring to the most HR in a Red Sox uniform, not by someone who happened to wear a Sox cap for a few of them.  That record is Ted's 521, but Ortiz only has 431 as a Red Sox.
 

WenZink

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
You're missing something.  Ras is referring to the most HR in a Red Sox uniform, not by someone who happened to wear a Sox cap for a few of them.  That record is Ted's 521, but Ortiz only has 431 as a Red Sox.
 
Yastrzemski is second with 452 homers.  Ortiz would need to reach 510 to tie Yaz (58 homeruns were as a Twin), which will happen, health permitting.
 
Ortiz, btw, is currently 10th on the list for most home runs after turning 30 (312).  Papi's next one will tie Mike Schmidt.  My guess is that Ortiz is not only looking forward to 2016, but 2017, as well.
 

VTSox

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
You're missing something.  Ras is referring to the most HR in a Red Sox uniform, not by someone who happened to wear a Sox cap for a few of them.  That record is Ted's 521, but Ortiz only has 431 as a Red Sox.
 
You're right... I missed that point also.
 

glasspusher

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Man, I love a good thread with statistics like these. Trying to recall the leaders in the "slugging begins at 40" club. I know Ted and Hank Aaron are up there.
 

iayork

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Danny_Darwin said:
 
The record holder for most home runs after age 40 is someone fairly well known around these parts.
Yeah, but I think Carleton Fisk's second-place finish is more impressive.  
 
Trivia of the day: 20 of the top 25 "home runs hit by oldest player" are Julio Franco.  
 

Soxfan in Fla

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iayork said:
Yeah, but I think Carleton Fisk's second-place finish is more impressive.  
 
Trivia of the day: 20 of the top 25 "home runs hit by oldest player" are Julio Franco.  
Did he play until age 65? ;)
 

The X Man Cometh

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scotian1 said:
Hitting them at the rate he has been lately, I believe, will be difficult to maintain. He will likely fall a few short but even if he does reach the 500 mark I can't se him wanting to retire after such a dismal team performance. I bet he would still like to become the only Red Sox to have 4 WS Championships.
 
He wouldn't be. Harry Hooper - '12, '15, '16, '18. Heinie Wagner too.
 

Rasputin

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Remember when we got him and he was just a guy that used to be called Arias, and he was just a guy we hoped wouldn't suck?
 
I feel like we should all chip in and get Dave Jauss an Edible Arrangement or something.
 

JimD

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I think some credit and appreciation is due to both sides for structuring this contract is a manner that is beneficial to all.  As a Red Sox fan, I'm thrilled that Ortiz has been healthy and productive enough to earn his 2016 contract.  Had he been banged up and didn't hit the vesting option then I could have seen him opting to retire, but he's earned this and I look forward to him being a key part of the offense next year and building his HoF case.
 
Likewise, for 2017 it will depend on his health.  It's a strict team option, of course, but the incentives will work the same if and when he hits the various PA milestones.  If 2016 is one year too many and he doesn't make it past 425 plate appearances then I expect he'd likely opt to retire rather than play for $10 million, but if he still is outrunning Father Time a year from now I think the front office will have an interesting dilemma on their hands.
 
Bottom line for me is, David Ortiz is continuing to earn his playing time and should not be pushed out the door to solve the Pablo/Hanley conundrum.
 

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88 and counting in his last three years in his 30s too, is pretty impressive.  Not quite Bonds* or AAron territory, but I don't think can be too many guys who have averaged over 30 in their 37, 38, and 39 year-old seasons.  Palmeiro had 104*.  Ruth had 97.  The only other that I can see who are close (I may be missing some) are Williams (88) and Thome (82).  
 
Admittedly, an arbitrary stat, and the fact that he is a DH makes comparisons not entirely appropriate (Edgar Martinez hit 75 over this stretch), but still, averaging 30 a year at 37-39 is pretty impressive.
 

smastroyin

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OPS Splits by month:
 
782/624/815/1017/1083.  His OPS bottomed out actually on June 7 at 670.  It's 826 now.
 
His L/R split is of course immense:  953/539 and covers all facets of hitting.  His walk rate is lower, his K rate is higher, his BA is less, and he slugs less.
 
I am a huge David Ortiz advocate, but I do think people with concerns have a right to them when you combine age with his struggles, and the idea of "what if next year his slump period is 12 weeks instead of 8?" etc.  But, the hot streak is encouraging in that it has no lasted 8 weeks or so itself, and has also featured some much better at bats against lefties.
 
However, as I stated in one of the other threads, the first rule of roster construction is to get good players.  It is very hard to help your team when you simply give good players away (such as by forcing Ortiz into retirement or making him sit to miss his vesting options which btw is a total dick move but I know BELICHICK WOULD TOTALLY DO IT :barf: )  Dumping Ortiz before you have to isn't a way to make a good team.  I'm not sure what to do with Hanley Ramirez right now either, but making the team worse to fit him in (arguments that he might flourish as a DH I guess can be made, but right now his OPS is 748, and I'll go ahead and add that Ortiz's wOBA/wRC+ is now .349/120 to Hanley's .322/101)
 
Basic point is, even accounting for age difference, the Red Sox may be better off in 2016 outright releasing Hanley as opposed to doing it to David Ortiz.  Not that they should do either, and years after 2016 count too.  Just that I'm tired of hearing the Sox need to get rid of Ortiz so that they can get Hanley out of the field.
 

WenZink

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JimD said:
I think some credit and appreciation is due to both sides for structuring this contract is a manner that is beneficial to all.  As a Red Sox fan, I'm thrilled that Ortiz has been healthy and productive enough to earn his 2016 contract.  Had he been banged up and didn't hit the vesting option then I could have seen him opting to retire, but he's earned this and I look forward to him being a key part of the offense next year and building his HoF case.
 
Likewise, for 2017 it will depend on his health.  It's a strict team option, of course, but the incentives will work the same if and when he hits the various PA milestones.  If 2016 is one year too many and he doesn't make it past 425 plate appearances then I expect he'd likely opt to retire rather than play for $10 million, but if he still is outrunning Father Time a year from now I think the front office will have an interesting dilemma on their hands.
 
Bottom line for me is, David Ortiz is continuing to earn his playing time and should not be pushed out the door to solve the Pablo/Hanley conundrum.
 
The only problem with a contract like that given to Ortiz is that you increase the probability that you're going to have one year of total suck at the end.  And that would not be pretty, especially with David Ortiz.  And, if he continues to finish the year strong, what is the chance that at the beginning of ST 2016, Ortiz doesn't start whining about having the vesting clause extended for another year?  Big Papi appears to enjoy center stage, as well as the money.  I don't think he really cares about clearing the DH spot for Hanley.
 

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smastroyin said:
I'm not sure what to do with Hanley Ramirez right now either, but making the team worse to fit him in (arguments that he might flourish as a DH I guess can be made, but right now his OPS is 748, and I'll go ahead and add that Ortiz's wOBA/wRC+ is now .349/120 to Hanley's .322/101)
Yes, but what relevance does this have? Nobody's proposing replacing Ortiz' offense with Hanley's offense. Hanley's offense is a given. The tradeoffs, in any "Ortiz retires, Hanley to DH" scenario, are:
 
1. Ortiz's offense for JBJ's offense*;
2. Hanley's defense for JBJ's defense.
 
The question is, how implausible is it that the second gap might turn out to be larger than the first? I'm not sure I know the answer to that question, but I'm pretty sure it's not as cut-and-dried as some of you are making it sound.
 
*This assumes for the sake of simplicity that if Hanley stays in LF JBJ is a 4th OF making spot starts and defensive replacements, while Rusney is the full-time RF. But the basic point stands if you posit a more complicated PT picture: basically you're replacing Hanley with a much better OF, and Ortiz with a much worse hitter, for most of the team's games.

 
Basic point is, even accounting for age difference, the Red Sox may be better off in 2016 outright releasing Hanley as opposed to doing it to David Ortiz.  Not that they should do either, and years after 2016 count too.  Just that I'm tired of hearing the Sox need to get rid of Ortiz so that they can get Hanley out of the field.
Indeed they might, but however implausible Ortiz retiring might be, this is even more so.
 

WenZink

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Savin Hillbilly said:
[snip]...
 
*This assumes for the sake of simplicity that if Hanley stays in LF JBJ is a 4th OF making spot starts and defensive replacements, while Rusney is the full-time RF. But the basic point stands if you posit a more complicated PT picture: basically you're replacing Hanley with a much better OF, and Ortiz with a much worse hitter, for most of the team's games.
 

...[snip].
 
If JBJ is to be used effectively as a 4th OF, there has to be greater willingness to accept that his defense is very valuable and to try and have him in the field for 900 innings (or roughly 60% of the season, if he stays healthy.)  That means very limited OF time for Brock Holt, and no De Aza.  Hanley Ramirez is probably not going to stay healthy enough to play more than 125/130 games, and it's a bad idea to push it, since his offense seems to fall off during recovery time.  And he should get more DH starts vs LHP, to maximize David Ortiz' average productivity.  Not to mention the fact that on days Ortiz or Hanley are not playing, they still may have utility in high-leverage PH situations.
 
It would take a stronger commitment to JBJ than we've seen this year, but it is doable.  I remember Rick Miller getting significant playing time for his defense in the early to mid 70s.  And while his offense was not nearly at the pathetic level of JBJ, he was just very, very good defensively, not all-world like JBJ.
 

smastroyin

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Savin Hillbilly said:
Yes, but what relevance does this have? Nobody's proposing replacing Ortiz' offense with Hanley's offense. Hanley's offense is a given. The tradeoffs, in any "Ortiz retires, Hanley to DH" scenario, are:
 
1. Ortiz's offense for JBJ's offense*;
2. Hanley's defense for JBJ's defense.
 
The question is, how implausible is it that the second gap might turn out to be larger than the first? I'm not sure I know the answer to that question, but I'm pretty sure it's not as cut-and-dried as some of you are making it sound.
 
*This assumes for the sake of simplicity that if Hanley stays in LF JBJ is a 4th OF making spot starts and defensive replacements, while Rusney is the full-time RF. But the basic point stands if you posit a more complicated PT picture: basically you're replacing Hanley with a much better OF, and Ortiz with a much worse hitter, for most of the team's games.
 

Indeed they might, but however implausible Ortiz retiring might be, this is even more so.
The statement was there specifically to deal with your argument. The best thing for The red Sox is probably Ortiz plus a guy playing defense in Hanleys place. Sorry I shorthanded the argument.

The problem is Hanley and people are blaming Ortiz for the problem. That's what I'm sick of. The argument of ortiz's lack of positional flexibility makes the Hanley problem harder to deal with. But dumping good players because you are having trouble figuring out the best way to take advantage of your less good players isn't a recipe for organizational success.

Since neither thing is going to happen, my argument is purely rhetorical.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Pumpsie said:
The first step to solving the Ortiz/Hanley problem is to get rid of the moron who created it out of thin air in the first place...Mr. Ben Cherington.
 
There is no Ortiz/Hanley problem.  There is a Hanley Ramirez is a poor defensive left fielder problem.  And part (most?) of the blame for that ought to be on the shoulders of the guy who proposed the idea in the first place: Hanley Ramirez.  He volunteered to change positions specifically so that he could come to Boston to play with David Ortiz (not replace him).  So let's not pretend Cherington pulled the idea out of thin air just as an excuse to sign Ramirez.
 

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
There is no Ortiz/Hanley problem.  There is a Hanley Ramirez is a poor defensive left fielder problem.  And part (most?) of the blame for that ought to be on the shoulders of the guy who proposed the idea in the first place: Hanley Ramirez.  He volunteered to change positions specifically so that he could come to Boston to play with David Ortiz (not replace him).  So let's not pretend Cherington pulled the idea out of thin air just as an excuse to sign Ramirez.
 
Wait, really? Playing LF was Hanley's brainchild, and not something the Sox proposed that he agreed to? I hadn't heard that.
 
 
smastroyin said:
The problem is Hanley and people are blaming Ortiz for the problem. 
 
Is anybody blaming Ortiz for the problem? That's not at all the same thing as saying that the best realistic way out of the problem might be for Ortiz to retire (I'm not necessarily saying I think that--in fact, I think it's probably not true, even if the only practical alternative is another year of Hanley in left--just saying that that's the argument, and it's a very different argument from "blaming" Ortiz).
 

smastroyin

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I don't know, read back in threads when he was quoted not being able to play a ton more 1B or his annual contract thread for the year.

Optimizing wins with the current roster in 2016 means sending an OF coach to spend the off season with Hanley, have him take 75% of the LHH DH duties and finding another 300 or so PA in the field. Or it means ditching Sandoval and hoping Hanley can still play IF or it means changing his mind on 1B.
 

Rasputin

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smastroyin said:
I don't know, read back in threads when he was quoted not being able to play a ton more 1B or his annual contract thread for the year.

Optimizing wins with the current roster in 2016 means sending an OF coach to spend the off season with Hanley, have him take 75% of the LHH DH duties and finding another 300 or so PA in the field. Or it means ditching Sandoval and hoping Hanley can still play IF or it means changing his mind on 1B.
 
We've already seen an infielder converted to an outfielder make giganttic strides in outfield defense from one season to another. Further, Hanley's poor performance doesn't look like it stems from a lack of range or mobility, but a lack of ball tracking skills and a low level of comfort with walls. Build him a back yard Fenway and have him take a couple hundred fly balls a day and I think he'll be drastically improved.
 

The X Man Cometh

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
 
There is no Ortiz/Hanley problem.  There is a Hanley Ramirez is a poor defensive left fielder problem.  And part (most?) of the blame for that ought to be on the shoulders of the guy who proposed the idea in the first place: Hanley Ramirez.  He volunteered to change positions specifically so that he could come to Boston to play with David Ortiz (not replace him).  So let's not pretend Cherington pulled the idea out of thin air just as an excuse to sign Ramirez.
 
My problem with this statement is this - Hanley Ramirez didn't volunteer to change positions. He volunteered to chance positions and receive $88 million guaranteed plus a vesting option. Of course he is going to be open to the idea. It is the team's responsibility to look out for their interest in the transaction.
 

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The X Man Cometh said:
 
My problem with this statement is this - Hanley Ramirez didn't volunteer to change positions. He volunteered to chance positions and receive $88 million guaranteed plus a vesting option. Of course he is going to be open to the idea. It is the team's responsibility to look out for their interest in the transaction.
"Of course he is going to be open to the idea" is nonsense. Derek Jeter never was. A bunch of other ballplayers weren't.

He came to the Red Sox saying he'd take less money to play here and play the outfield is they wanted. That's volunteering.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Rasputin said:
 
We've already seen an infielder converted to an outfielder make giganttic strides in outfield defense from one season to another. Further, Hanley's poor performance doesn't look like it stems from a lack of range or mobility, but a lack of ball tracking skills and a low level of comfort with walls. Build him a back yard Fenway and have him take a couple hundred fly balls a day and I think he'll be drastically improved.
He's already taken hundreds of flyballs. He did that in spring training. The guy is not on outfielder, he's an infielder and has always been one. He and the Red Sox thought he could learn to track flyballs, but he can't. They tried, but it's not working. It's time to put him back in the infield where he had always played before this year.
 
Next year he can poorly cover first, third, and maybe a dozen games in left when other guys are hurt. And DH against a lot of lefties. You should expect about 120-130 games a year from him max as he moves into his 30's, so 60 at first, 20 at third, 12 in left, 40 at DH is pretty much a full season for him most years. Expect him to be lousy in the field, but not as lousy as he has been in LF this year. If he could be passable enough to play 60 games at first base next year, and hits anywhere near his career numbers, that would be a very solid player who would actually fit well with the rest of the roster.
 

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The Gray Eagle said:
He's already taken hundreds of flyballs. He did that in spring training. The guy is not on outfielder, he's an infielder and has always been one. He and the Red Sox thought he could learn to track flyballs, but he can't. They tried, but it's not working. It's time to put him back in the infield where he had always played before this year.
 
Next year he can poorly cover first, third, and maybe a dozen games in left when other guys are hurt. And DH against a lot of lefties. You should expect about 120-130 games a year from him max as he moves into his 30's, so 60 at first, 20 at third, 12 in left, 40 at DH is pretty much a full season for him most years. Expect him to be lousy in the field, but not as lousy as he has been in LF this year. If he could be passable enough to play 60 games at first base next year, and hits anywhere near his career numbers, that would be a very solid player who would actually fit well with the rest of the roster.
I'm going out on a limb and suggesting there's zero chance this happens.

I don't for a minute buy the notion that he can't improve at tracking balls. Get his eyes looked at and hit him a thousand a week in the off season.
 

WenZink

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Hanley's defense in left has definitely improved.  Admittedly, it may have just improved from all-time-worst to everyday abominable.  But there is improvement.  And there's reasonable expectations that it will get better; maybe improve all the way to poor.
 
But I think asking him in 2016 to learn to play a 3rd different position in the last 3 years (and 4th in 5 years), is just asking for disaster.  If we have learned one thing about Ramirez, it's that he doesn't adapt too well to change.  Let him stay in left, achieve some comfort level, and then hope his hitting comes back.
 

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Hopefully, David Ortiz hits #490 and turns this conversation around.
 
Edit:  Interesting tidbit from B-Ref:
Two of Papi's four home runs against the Red Sox (as a member of the Twins) came against Ramon and Pedro Martinez.
Rich Garces and Tim Young allowed the other two in the same game.
 

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Doooweeeey! said:
Hopefully, David Ortiz hits #490 and turns this conversation around.
 
Edit:  Interesting tidbit from B-Ref:
Two of Papi's four home runs against the Red Sox (as a member of the Twins) came against Ramon and Pedro Martinez.
Rich Garces and Tim Young allowed the other two in the same game.
 
Wow that was pretty good.  When will he hit the next one?