Ortiz vs LHP, is it an effect of the shift?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Found an interesting article on MLB.com today that looks at David Ortiz's sudden inability to hit LHP this season after experiencing a good success rate against them over the last few years.  The author suggests, based on Statcast data, that perhaps his struggles are a result of trying to hit away from the shift more often.  The frequency with which he takes LHP to center or left field is 62.1%, up from 54.2% last year.
 
This somewhat supports the notion that the answer to the shift is to simply go the other way more.  It would appear that changing one's approach at the plate might have more ill effects than positive outcomes.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Found an interesting article on MLB.com today that looks at David Ortiz's sudden inability to hit LHP this season after experiencing a good success rate against them over the last few years.  The author suggests, based on Statcast data, that perhaps his struggles are a result of trying to hit away from the shift more often.  The frequency with which he takes LHP to center or left field is 62.1%, up from 54.2% last year.
 
This somewhat supports the notion that the answer to the shift is to simply go the other way more.  It would appear that changing one's approach at the plate might have more ill effects than positive outcomes.

One could also use that evidence to suggest he can't get around on fastballs from LHs anymore - which seems to be supported by the eye test .

 

[DJnVa]

One could also use that evidence to suggest he can't get around on fastballs from LHs anymore - which seems to be supported by the eye test .

 
They address that in the article. Which he linked.
 

(The devil's advocate view would argue that his bat speed has slowed, though his production against righties and overall solid batted ball velocity would stand against that.) The problem is that Ortiz is putting up a career-low 31 percent fly ball rate against lefties, because he's trying to move away from his power field. If he's not hitting flies, he's not hitting homers, and he's not the type of runner who beats out that many grounders.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

62.1% of 56 balls in play is 35. That's 4 more than expected from last year. His K% vs lefties this year is 21%, up from 16% last year. That's 4 more K's this year than expected from last year. I'm not quite sure how you can say he's going to left more often but not striking out more often.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

For a different perspective on the hard hit ball data with Ortiz, check out Cuzittt's piece from last week.
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/hard-hitting-ortiz/

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
They address that in the article. Which he linked.
 

(The devil's advocate view would argue that his bat speed has slowed, though his production against righties and overall solid batted ball velocity would stand against that.) The problem is that Ortiz is putting up a career-low 31 percent fly ball rate against lefties, because he's trying to move away from his power field. If he's not hitting flies, he's not hitting homers, and he's not the type of runner who beats out that many grounders.

 
This in itself is very odd. In general, batters hit more fly balls when they go to the opposite field, and more grounders when they pull. The fly balls they do hit when they pull tend to go farther, but there aren't as many of them.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
This in itself is very odd. In general, batters hit more fly balls when they go to the opposite field, and more grounders when they pull. The fly balls they do hit when they pull tend to go farther, but there aren't as many of them.

 
 
Concerning the spray charts in that article:
 
When Ortiz hits a groundball its right into the shift. And there are a lot of them. There is no indication he's trying to hit grounders to the left side of diamond. When he hits a flyball he almost never pulls it. So what can you make of that? Much would depend on the location and type of pitches that he is hitting of course. But one could surmise that he's trying to pull pitches low and away - and rolling over -- resulting in all those groundballs to the right side. When he doesn't try to pull he's lofting flyballs to center and left.
 
Aren't both of these observations consistent with slower bat speed? I don't see any evidence that he's consciously trying to beat the shift.

 

[behindthepen]

Found an interesting article on MLB.com today that looks at David Ortiz's sudden inability to hit LHP this season after experiencing a good success rate against them over the last few years.  The author suggests, based on Statcast data, that perhaps his struggles are a result of trying to hit away from the shift more often.  The frequency with which he takes LHP to center or left field is 62.1%, up from 54.2% last year.
 
This somewhat supports the notion that the answer to the shift is to simply go the other way more.  It would appear that changing one's approach at the plate might have more ill effects than positive outcomes.

I just stumbled across this article from 2012, How David Ortiz Turned It Around Against Lefties.
 
The first point in the article:

 
* No longer trying to pull everything: Maybe it’s a coincidence, but Ortiz’s resurgence against lefties coincided with the arrival ofAdrian Gonzalez, a left-handed hitter with a reputation for going the other way.
Batting from the left side at Fenway requires a willingness to hit to the opposite field. Ortiz needed that reminder after three straight years of struggling against southpaws. In 2010, he went homerless and hit just .205 at home against lefties.
“I’m pretty much a pull hitter, and pulling everything against lefties wasn’t working for me,” he said of that season.
ESPN.comLast season, when Ortiz went to the opposite field against a lefty, he hit .541. When he did so at home, he hit .654.
Indeed, Fenway Park is where Ortiz’s pull-first mentality got him in the most trouble. In 2010, he hit just .205 at home against southpaws. The following year that surged to .378. In fact, among left-handed hitters at home, his .378 batting average against lefties was the highest in the league in 2011.
Ortiz has improved significantly on outside pitches since he stopped trying to pull everything. As the heat maps show, Ortiz could turn on inside pitches even when he was at his worst. Since the start of last season, he’s crushing balls low and away.
Going the other way also helps explain his turnaround against off-speed pitches from southpaws. In 2009-10, he hit .157 on those, including .136 on the curveballs combination. But since the start of last season, he’s hit .289 against the soft stuff from lefties, including .450 on curves.