Outs at Home 2017

BestGameEvah

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1. 4.5 vs. Pirates
LEON.
Ran through Stop Sign. w/ 2out, ball hit to McCutchen.

2. 4.9 @Tigers
MORELAND
**Contact(1) Hit to third w/ 1 out.

3. 4.11 vs. Orioles
PEDROIA
**Contact(2) Betts hit to ss, Hardy w/ 1 out

4. 4.13 vs. Pirates
BETTS.
Hanley bomb to CF, Betts right on top of Bogie, catches foot right before plate. Called safe.
Review overturned.

5. 5.2 vs. Orioles
HERNANDEZ.
**Contact (3) w/ 2 outs tried to tag on Davis in RF.

6. 5.10 @Brewers
PEDROIA.
**Contact (4)Back to the pitcher, but got caught too far off base, couldn't get back.

7. 5.14 vs. Tampa
VAZQUEZ.
**Contact (5) w/ 1 out, Betts hits to Longoria

8. 5.16 @ Cardinals
MORELAND.
w/ 2 outs Pham LF dropped the ball in LF. Made good throw to Molina.

9. May ??
HANLEY.
**Contact(6) Ball hit to ss.

10. 5.27 vs. Mariners
HANLEY.
Ran through Stop Sign.

11. 6.12 vs. Phillies
LEON.
w/ 2 outs Sandy tags on Pedroia fly ball to Herrera CF

12. 6.15 @ Phillies
LEON.
w/ 2 outs Sandy waved on Betts single to Nava.

13. COULD NOT FIND OUT, but has to be Pedroia?<based on BRef # outs at home>

14. 6.23 vs. Angels
BRADLEY.
Botched squeeze play back to pitcher, Paredes

15. 7.1 @Toronto
HANLEY.
Tried to score on passed ball, kicked back from backstop Martin to Harrell.

16. 7.16 vs Yanks
TRAVIS.
**Contact (7) w/ 1 out Marerro ball hit to leaping Sabathia

17. 7.17 vs. Toronto
BETTS.
Ran through Stop Sign.

18. 7.19 vs. Toronto
YOUNG.
**Contact(8) w/ 1 out Vazquez ground to Smoak, Young indecisive, can't get back to 3rd, JBJ
advanced.

19. 7.20 vs. Toronto
LEON.
w/ 1 out Holt singles on Pearce dropped Fly Ball, makes good throw to Martin w spectacular tag

20. 7.31 vs Indians
HOLT.
w/ 2 outs Nunez doubles to Brantley CF. Holt tries to score from 1st. Brantley to Gomes

21. 8.1 vs Indians
HOLT.
w/ 1 out Nunez doubles to Jackson. Great relay from Lindor to Gomes

22. 8.1 vs. Indians
NUNEZ.
**Contact(9) w 1 out Hanley grounds to 3rd.

23. 8.3 vs. CWS
HANLEY.
w/ 2 outs, Devers reaches on error- dropped fly ball in LF. Delmonico-Anderson-Narvaez.

24. 8.9 @ Tampa
NUNEZ.
**Contact(10) w/ 1 out Hanley reaches on fielder's choice to Longoria

25. 8.9 @ Tampa
HANLEY.
**Contact(11) w/1 out Brock reaches on FC to 2nd base Miller.
Was it contact. I only saw Hanley stop mid way?

26. 8.29 @Toronto
NUNEZ.
On second w 2 out. Betts singles to RF. Bautista make wide throw up 3rd base line but tagged in
foul territory.

27. 8.29 @Toronto
NUNEZ
**Contact(12) w/ 1 out, Nunez on third, Betts hits FC to ss.

28. 9.10 vs Tampa
VAZQUEZ. w 2 out. Travis flies to RF Mallex Smith. Vaz tags and is called out. Replay shows
his foot got in but Joe Torre prevails.

29. 9.15 @Tampa.
MARRERO
**Contact (13) w 0 out. JBJ hits FC to ss.

Reconciled to the best of my ability. Couple things I couldn't find if anyone has help/recall.
**Edit for Update
 
Last edited:

Bertha

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Thanks for doing this research.

Most seem to agree that being aggressive on the bases is warranted with the offense being more inconsistent than past years. A few of these outs required a perfect throw and tag, while others were doomed from the start.

I assume the contact play is manager's decision, and you could argue either side of the debate.
Butterfield does not seem to be in Wendell Kim territory, as running through stop signs is obviously on the player. I also notice more than ever that the lead runner may be halfway home and will wave in the runner behind him. No idea if that is relevant, but one would hope Butterfield's stop or go carries more weight there.

We've obviously seen some poor baserunning decisions other than at home plate, particularly Bogaerts and Benintendi with 2 basepath outs each in single games recently. I don't recall the exact situation, but recently I had a flashback to Carl Everett out at 3rd on sac. fly to left, ending the game seconds before Nixon crossed plate with (tying?) run. Situational awareness seems to be poor for a good portion of the team.
 

absintheofmalaise

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I was just looking at the baserunning outs stats. They have a total of 59 baserunning outs. Houston is next with 46. Just to clarify, those outs don't include CS, PO or force plays. League average is 35.

They are also second, tied with Seattle, in MLB in extra bases taken with 129. Houston leads with 135. again, just to clarify, includes fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and DI. League average is 101.

Last season they had a total of 65 baserunning outs, the Angels led with 77, and just 151 extra bases taken. Cleveland led with 186 and the Cubs had 184. League average was 149. League average for baserunning outs was 54.
 

Harry Hooper

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Thanks for doing this research.


We've obviously seen some poor baserunning decisions other than at home plate, particularly Bogaerts and Benintendi with 2 basepath outs each in single games recently. I don't recall the exact situation, but recently I had a flashback to Carl Everett out at 3rd on sac. fly to left, ending the game seconds before Nixon crossed plate with (tying?) run. Situational awareness seems to be poor for a good portion of the team.
That would be Bogaerts tagging up at 1B on the sac fly to CF and then running right into an out at 2B.
 

grimshaw

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Two of those games they lost by one run, -the Sale game in Philly, and the 4-3 loss to the Jays on 7-17.
They lost another 2 run game. None of the others were close losses.

On the other hand, they are 2nd in MLB in going to 1st to 3rd on a single with 68 (Houston has 69).
They are also 3rd in scoring from 2nd on a single, 19 times more than league average.

It's hard to say for sure they have any net losses based on all of that but I wouldn't think so.
 

joe dokes

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I was just looking at the baserunning outs stats. They have a total of 59 baserunning outs. Houston is next with 46. Just to clarify, those outs don't include CS, PO or force plays. League average is 35.

They are also second, tied with Seattle, in MLB in extra bases taken with 129. Houston leads with 135. again, just to clarify, includes fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and DI. League average is 101.

Last season they had a total of 65 baserunning outs, the Angels led with 77, and just 151 extra bases taken. Cleveland led with 186 and the Cubs had 184. League average was 149. League average for baserunning outs was 54.
If I'm reading it right they are also near the top in "extra base taken %%" which at least suggests that they getting some benefit from the aggressiveness. The monumentally stupid plays, like Benintendi going from 2nd to 3rd on the grounder last night stick out. But its easy to forget that Bogaerts scored on what could be called an "aggressive" chance (as Hanley was similarly thrown out).
 

absintheofmalaise

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If I'm reading it right they are also near the top in "extra base taken %%" which at least suggests that they getting some benefit from the aggressiveness. The monumentally stupid plays, like Benintendi going from 2nd to 3rd on the grounder last night stick out. But its easy to forget that Bogaerts scored on what could be called an "aggressive" chance (as Hanley was similarly thrown out).
You are correct. They are currently at 44%. Teams currently ahead of them are Arizona 48% and Texas and Atlanta at 47%. Houston is at 38%. League average is 40%.

With the overall team speed they have, which just got better with the addition of Nunez, I like the aggressiveness. It's the mental error outs, like the ones mentioned, that piss me off.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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So I guess that unless it's still too small a sample size that Houston's 135-46 ratio compared to Boston's 129-59 makes them quite a bit base-running team than the Sox.
 

shaggydog2000

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Well, according to Fangraphs baserunning stat, Mookie and Xander are the 5th and 6th best baserunners in all of baseball. Their aggressiveness helps more than it hurts, and I am fine with that. As a whole, the Sox are almost exactly average in baserunning, with a net 0.4 number that puts them 15th in the MLB. As good as Xander and Mookie are, most of the Sox players are average. And Dustin Pedroia is one of the very worst in the league. Maybe he has slowed down that much, or he just doesn't realize how much slower he is, but he's got to adjust. Hanley is also a big negative, and he might have the same issues as Pedroia. And of course both the catchers are bad runners, but so aren't most catchers.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Benintendi is pretty consistently bad on the basepaths, as well as the ones you've named. Much more raw speed than Pedroia or Ramirez or the catchers, but terrible reads and slides.
 

SoxInTheMist

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I'm somewhat indifferent to the outs at home but it's the outs at third that bug me. Especially when you break the golden rule of "don't make the first or third out at third" which I think Benintendi did twice last night.
 

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If I'm reading it right they are also near the top in "extra base taken %%" which at least suggests that they getting some benefit from the aggressiveness. The monumentally stupid plays, like Benintendi going from 2nd to 3rd on the grounder last night stick out. But its easy to forget that Bogaerts scored on what could be called an "aggressive" chance (as Hanley was similarly thrown out).
And Benintendi scored on a very aggressive baserunning play as well. I didn't see if he was waved or it was on his own.
 

geoduck no quahog

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About 1/3 of those listings were with 2 outs. I think it's safe to factor in the odds of that run scoring without the aggression - say, 25%? 20%?

Not to excuse it, but sticking at 3B for 30% of those outs probably means the run scores something like 6% of the time, which doesn't factor in other outcomes, like an extra base runner or more pitches thrown or 2+ runs scoring.

Math correct?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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And Benintendi scored on a very aggressive baserunning play as well. I didn't see if he was waved or it was on his own.
Didn't see if he was waved in or not but with two outs, he should be running without thought of stopping in that situation anyway. The play at home was only as close as it looked because Abreu was quick to react to the safe call and he is right handed. A lefty first baseman probably doesn't even make the throw.
 

BestGameEvah

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Thanks for doing this research.

Most seem to agree that being aggressive on the bases is warranted with the offense being more inconsistent than past years. A few of these outs required a perfect throw and tag, while others were doomed from the start.

I assume the contact play is manager's decision, and you could argue either side of the debate.
Butterfield does not seem to be in Wendell Kim territory, as running through stop signs is obviously on the player. I also notice more than ever that the lead runner may be halfway home and will wave in the runner behind him. No idea if that is relevant, but one would hope Butterfield's stop or go carries more weight there.

We've obviously seen some poor baserunning decisions other than at home plate, particularly Bogaerts and Benintendi with 2 basepath outs each in single games recently. I don't recall the exact situation, but recently I had a flashback to Carl Everett out at 3rd on sac. fly to left, ending the game seconds before Nixon crossed plate with (tying?) run. Situational awareness seems to be poor for a good portion of the team.
You're welcome, Bertha.
Good point about the perfect throws home.
We have seen on our own team that throws can frequently be off line.
That is part of pre-series preparation done by Butter w/ video, etc.
Sometimes we just have to test them.
 

shaggydog2000

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Benintendi is pretty consistently bad on the basepaths, as well as the ones you've named. Much more raw speed than Pedroia or Ramirez or the catchers, but terrible reads and slides.
Benintendi is also a large net plus in the baserunning stat, at 1.8. Maybe his speed is covering for some bad instincts. Maybe he would be better than he has been if his reads/slides were better. Maybe the stat is just not capturing that aspect of his game well. It has his taking extra bases as the strongest part of his running game, with stealing bases a small positive, and running into double plays slightly below average. But there is also an subjective grading associated with that stat, so who knows? But from watching him play, he seems like a positive on the basepaths to me, even with his mistakes.
 

AB in DC

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The monumentally stupid plays, like Benintendi going from 2nd to 3rd on the grounder last night stick out.
Unlike the other plays in this thread, though, this one didn't cause an extra out. It just meant the Sox had one out and a runner at first instead of one out and a runner at second. It was a small loss (about -0.15 runs) in return for two possible gains:

1) If the White Sox fail to make the tag, it's first and third with zero outs (about +1.12 runs)
2) If the fielder decides to throw to first anyway (e.g. the 3B is slow to cover the bag), that's a runner on third with one out.(about +0.29 runs)

I'm too lazy to calculate what the success rate would need to be to break even in run expectancy, but I expect it's not as high as you might think.
 

charlieoscar

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I was thinking about this this morning before seeing this thread but going through play-by-play for 109 games would take a while, so I put it on the back-burner. I thought it would be interesting to see what the potential differences in runs scored might have been if the club were conservative in their base running. Using the run expectancy table, you could compare the expected run value of a runner on 1st with no one out to a runner on 2nd with no one out to no one on and one out. There should be break-even points for all the situations. There is also the leverage index to consider.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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First .. the Benintendi play where he tried for 3rd with no outs. Now , it was a stupid play because he was going to be out 99% of the time.

But, in a more general sense I think it's something that more runners should try. You have three basic outcomes.

Runner is out at third -cost is 1 base

Runner is safe at third when the batter is thrown out at first. Gain is one base.

Runner is safe at third when the fielder throws to third. Gain is two bases plus an out!

Now, I don't know what the percentage of being safe at third is to make this a good play but one would think something like 40% makes it worth trying.
 

joyofsox

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BRef has various in-depth baserunning stats for each player here.

Benintendi has been out on the bases 10 times this year, easily the most on the team, with Pedroia, Bogaerts and Ramirez at 7 each.
 

ledsox

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Beni was interviewed on the radio after the game and the base running was brought up by Tim and Joe. His response was that as long as the outs on the bases were from being aggressive it was ok. He didn't mention that he needed to be better with his reads (hopefully he realizes this) but he did say that mistakes from non hustle was definitely frowned upon.

I like the approach. Farrell has a young athletic group lets them loose. Just hope some of the reads get better,
 

shaggydog2000

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BRef has various in-depth baserunning stats for each player here.

Benintendi has been out on the bases 10 times this year, easily the most on the team, with Pedroia, Bogaerts and Ramirez at 7 each.
He also leads the team in bases taken at 16. So good stuff and bad stuff.
 

kazuneko

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Beni was interviewed on the radio after the game and the base running was brought up by Tim and Joe. His response was that as long as the outs on the bases were from being aggressive it was ok. He didn't mention that he needed to be better with his reads (hopefully he realizes this) but he did say that mistakes from non hustle was definitely frowned upon.
I like the approach. Farrell has a young athletic group lets them loose. Just hope some of the reads get better,
I don't. Especially because the running philosophy Beni proposes (i.e. that as long as the outs on the bases come from aggressiveness they are okay) is apparently a team-wide philosophy, and not limited to the players with the best instincts on the basepaths. It's also an approach that apparently ignores widely accepted baseball logic about when aggressiveness is most appropriate (ie. things like “don’t make the first or last out at third base"). The result is a team that feels reckless on the basepaths, and not surprisingly, leads the league in outs on base by a significant margin.
I also think the fact that the team has some of the best and worst baserunners in the game support the hypothesis that the problem here is that Farrell has established a team-wide philosophy encouraging aggressiveness. Giving great baserunners the green light to follow their instincts is a good way to bolster the running advantage the team gets from those baserunners. But to extend that same philosophy to less skilled baserunners is a great way to have a mediocre baserunning team, made up of both the best and worst baserunners in baseball.
 

In my lifetime

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Beni was interviewed on the radio after the game and the base running was brought up by Tim and Joe. His response was that as long as the outs on the bases were from being aggressive it was ok. He didn't mention that he needed to be better with his reads (hopefully he realizes this) but he did say that mistakes from non hustle was definitely frowned upon.

I like the approach. Farrell has a young athletic group lets them loose. Just hope some of the reads get better,
Okay, I will bite and call BS on this. It goes without saying that not hustling on the bases leading to an out is a major problem. Making outs on the bases because a player is being overly aggressive is also definitely a problem and not alright in my book. Heck, even in youth baseball it is not okay.

The play yesterday was in front of him and was not close. I don't at all disagree with BC that if the player has the probability of making it ~40% of the time or so, that it is a chance worth taking. However, in this case, the play wasn't close and the chance of a poor throw from 20 feet away is minuscule. So there was probably less than a 10% chance of Benintendi making it to 3rd safely, thus it was a poor play.

It is fine to be aggressive on the base paths, but you have to be aggressive and smart. Obviously, the play can be identical but in one case with 2 outs a chance worth taking and the other case with no outs just plain stupid.
 

streeter88

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I don't. Especially because the running philosophy Beni proposes (i.e. that as long as the outs on the bases come from aggressiveness they are okay) is apparently a team-wide philosophy, and not limited to the players with the best instincts on the basepaths. It's also an approach that apparently ignores widely accepted baseball logic about when aggressiveness is most appropriate (ie. things like “don’t make the first or last out at third base"). The result is a team that feels reckless on the basepaths, and not surprisingly, leads the league in outs on base by a significant margin.
I also think the fact that the team has some of the best and worst baserunners in the game support the hypothesis that the problem here is that Farrell has established a team-wide philosophy encouraging aggressiveness. Giving great baserunners the green light to follow their instincts is a good way to bolster the running advantage the team gets from those baserunners. But to extend that same philosophy to less skilled baserunners is a great way to have a mediocre baserunning team, made up of both the best and worst baserunners in baseball.
Agree completely. This is where the "leaders" of the team (Hanley, Pedey) need to look at their behavior in the context of their declining speed -- and stop trying to take the extra base. And Benintendi needs some focused instruction on when and when not to be aggressive.
 

DJnVa

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I don't. Especially because the running philosophy Beni proposes (i.e. that as long as the outs on the bases come from aggressiveness they are okay) is apparently a team-wide philosophy, and not limited to the players with the best instincts on the basepaths. It's also an approach that apparently ignores widely accepted baseball logic about when aggressiveness is most appropriate (ie. things like “don’t make the first or last out at third base"). The result is a team that feels reckless on the basepaths, and not surprisingly, leads the league in outs on base by a significant margin.
You're only looking at half the story though. Overall they are above average in base running in terms of bases taken and above average in SB%.

They are 4th in the league in XBT (extra bases taken) at 44%. So, they are aggressive and run into more total outs, but percentage wise, they are better than the average team.
 

joe dokes

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Farrell in today's glob:

Learning curve

Andrew Benintendi has made 10 outs on the bases the season, tied for the most in the majors.

He was thrown out at third twice Thursday night. One was over-aggression, trying to go from first to third on a single through the right side of the infield by Eduardo Nunez. The other was a mental mistake, going from second to third on a Nunez ground ball to shortstop.

While the rookie has run into more than his share of outs, Farrell said Benintendi’s base running will get better as he gains experience.

“In Benny’s case — and really for anybody — the game is the greatest teacher,” Farrell said. “Yes, he runs into a third out and third base last night, but it’s the same aggressiveness that allows him to score from second base on an infield single.

“So we, and I particularly, would much rather have young players . . . you don’t have to poke to get them to be aggressive. This first full year, there’s going to be maybe more subtleties of the game are going to be the steep learning curve for Benny. I firmly believe he’s going to be an elite base runner as he continues to experience.”

Benintendi is second on the team and third among rookies with 10 stolen bases.

“I would rather take a fearless aggressive guy 10 times before I take a guy that you have to outline every initial situation,” Farrell said.
 

charlieoscar

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Sure, it's okay to have 10 innings cut short with aggressive base running just because that runner once scored from 2nd on an infield single. Way to analyse, Farrell.

Aggressive base running is fine as long as it is done intelligently but this year Benintendi has slipped. He had 4 OOB last season and a 53% rate in extra bases taken opposed to 10 OOB this year and a 40% XBT rate.

However, one has to also consider the third base coach. Is he being more aggressive this season? Given that the XBT% is almost the same for this season and last one wonders how much the increase in OOB is due to the coach waving on players vs. players being stupid vs. players simply ignoring his stop signs.
 

uncannymanny

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Sure, it's okay to have 10 innings cut short with aggressive base running just because that runner once scored from 2nd on an infield single. Way to analyse, Farrell.
That's not what he said. "Way to analyse." What he said was he'd rather have the guy that is willing to be aggressive and learn from his mistakes, than the guy who needs instruction to do anything.
 

charlieoscar

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That's not what he said. "Way to analyse." What he said was he'd rather have the guy that is willing to be aggressive and learn from his mistakes, than the guy who needs instruction to do anything.
Then maybe Farrell should be coaching third base in the minors.
 

richgedman'sghost

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CharlieOscar, You clearly did not understand what Farrell was saying. Every rookie is going to make mistakes on the bases. Would you rather the Sox go back to their baserunning "prowess" of the late 50s or early 60s when it would take 3 singles to score a guy from 1st base? Better to learn from aggressive than over passiveness...I understand Charlie, you wanted John fired like yesterday, but you should not let your hatred of the man color your anslysis..Way to analysis...Maybe you should do your analysis in the Sandlot board. (RIP Sandlot board).

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Going 2d to 3rd on a GB to SS is a pretty risky play. I don't know where to find the data, but I'd guess the success rate is very low. 20%? It's an easy play for the SS, who can see the runner go and need only make a short toss to 3rd. Even fast runners don't often attempt this. Bad decision by Beni, imo.

On the other hand, Beni's attempt to go 1st to 3rd on the GB to RF was a good, aggressive play, imo. The RF had to charge and field it going left, see Beni going to 3rd, pivot and make a good throw to get him (all of which he did). But that's a harder defensive play, and the chance that the RF throws off target and allows Beni not just to take 3rd but also to score is significant, so it's worth the risk, imo. That's putting pressure on the D.
 

joe dokes

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I don't think anyone would disagree that the 2nd to 3rd wasnt a good move. Man on 2nd 1 out is better than man on 1st 1 out, with little chance of making it 1st and 3rd.

Sounds like some folks won't be a happy unless pharelle mans up and berates the players publicly until they get it right. Especially the rookies. In their face. After eating liver and not brushing his teeth.
 

barbed wire Bob

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I don't think anyone would disagree that the 2nd to 3rd wasnt a good move. Man on 2nd 1 out is better than man on 1st 1 out, with little chance of making it 1st and 3rd.

Sounds like some folks won't be a happy unless pharelle mans up and berates the players publicly until they get it right. Especially the rookies. In their face. After eating liver and not brushing his teeth.
Don't forget the onions. You can't eat liver without the onions.
 

charlieoscar

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CharlieOscar, You clearly did not understand what Farrell was saying. Every rookie is going to make mistakes on the bases....
No, I think maybe they should teach players in the minor leagues how to run bases. I keep watching players who are weak on the fundamentals of the game; I'm fast: I can run the bases with impunity; I have a gun: I'm going to make a throw to the plate (even though there is absolutely no chance of getting the runner and the batter takes second on the throw).

They're young, so they're cheap; bring 'em up as fast as you can and keep the payroll down.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Sure, it's okay to have 10 innings cut short with aggressive base running just because that runner once scored from 2nd on an infield single. Way to analyse, Farrell.

Aggressive base running is fine as long as it is done intelligently but this year Benintendi has slipped. He had 4 OOB last season and a 53% rate in extra bases taken opposed to 10 OOB this year and a 40% XBT rate.
.
I'd back this question up to run expectancy and break-even rates. While the act of taking an extra base is different than stealing a base in terms of game action, are not the consequences the same? If I try to turn a single into a double and make it safely, I have essentially "stolen" a base. If I try to go from first to third on a single when my success in question, I have essentially "stolen" third. So it would seem the break-even rates of stolen bases would, generally speaking, apply to taking the extra base as well.
This Fangraphs article (http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/) puts the break even point for stealing third at 78% with 0 outs, 69% with 1 out, and 88% with 2 outs. The break-even points for stealing second range from 70-75%. I think we can reasonabIy apply these same percentages to taking the extra base. The exception is taking the extra base to score and stealing home. Stealing home is such a unique baseball play that it can't be compared to trying to score from second on a single or from first on a double.
So if we allow that break-even points for extra base taken percentage (XBT%) is comparable to stolen base percentage, then it's easy to determine if a runner is being too aggressive if we have the data to analyze. I hope to hell the Sox analytics people are looking at that info and feeding the results to the coaches and players to help them make good decisions.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Just wanted to add the Chris Young play today where he got caught between second and third and was tagged out after a brief run down. For the record, I am not questioning this out since it ensured that 10D scored on the play. This is more a case of record keeping and keeping track of the outs on the bases.
 

BrooklynDog45

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Just wanted to add the Chris Young play today where he got caught between second and third and was tagged out after a brief run down. For the record, I am not questioning this out since it ensured that 10D scored on the play. This is more a case of record keeping and keeping track of the outs on the bases.
Totally disagree with this take. No play at the plate, CY ran into an out for no reason. You can even see him ask Butter after the play if he had a bad read. Which he did IMO.
 

redsox2020

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It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback with our running game, but expecting perfection isn't realistic. And just saying you don't wanna see bad plays isn't helpful either. Nobody does. But how aggressive do you think we should be? How often should we run? How successful should we be? I'd actually like to see this quantified. What numbers would the critics like to see? What are acceptable stats?
 

ledsox

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Good post there, Heating up. Using some of the basic numbers (bases taken/outs made) posted earlier in the thread I did some simple math and came up with success rates and also went to b-ref for stolen base rates I think steals should be included in this conversation. Here are the numbers as of yesterday.

2017 Extra bases taken success rate
Sox. 68.6%
MLB ave. 74%

2016 EBT
Sox. 70%
MLB. 73%

2017 Stolen bases
Sox. 75.5% (current)
MLB. 72.5%

2016 SB
Sox. 77.5%
MLB. 72%

2017 Benintendi
EBT 61%
SB 80% (current)

2017 combined EBT and SB
Sox. 71%
MLB. 73.6%

Looking at Fangraphs BsR stat...
2017 Sox are 14th of 30 teams at 0.6
2016 Sox were 7th in MLB at 9.6

So with this non contextual look, it seems to me that Sox overall are within a reasonable range of expectation given their approach on the bases in what has been a HR hungry season to date.
 

Pitt the Elder

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According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox are 14th in MLB and 5th in the AL with a BsR of 0.6. The Rays and Diamondbacks lead their respective leagues with a 20.2 BsR while the Mets (-19.1) and Mariners (-16.5) are bringing up the rears.

So the Red Sox, on the whole, are a slightly above average base running team, despite the salient nature of these outs.

It's really interesting looking at how players on the Red Sox rank in BsR. Here are all players that have had more than 40 PA with the Sox this year:

NameGPABsR
Mookie Betts1075016.2
Xander Bogaerts1004285.5
Andrew Benintendi1024372
Josh Rutledge371180.9
Jackie Bradley Jr.933850.8
Sam Travis18500.8
Tzu-Wei Lin19590.6
Brock Holt24710.2
Rafael Devers10450.1
Marco Hernandez21600
Mitch Moreland102408-0.4
Deven Marrero58166-0.4
Pablo Sandoval32108-0.4
Chris Young65207-0.5
Christian Vazquez66231-2
Sandy Leon59206-3.9
Hanley Ramirez94398-4.3
Dustin Pedroia85383-5.6


Beni, despite some frustrating miscues lately, is actually rated among the best on the team with a BsR of 2.0, behind only Betts (6.2 - is there anything he's not good at?) and Bogaerts (5.5). If you want to look at who is really hurting the Sox on the basepaths, you're looking at the seasoned veterans (Pedroia, Hanley, and Leon), not the inexperienced young guys.

Edit: If anyone has any better way to convert a table to BB Code without a huge space at the top, I'm open to suggestions.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Good post there, Heating up. Using some of the basic numbers (bases taken/outs made) posted earlier in the thread I did some simple math and came up with success rates and also went to b-ref for stolen base rates I think steals should be included in this conversation. Here are the numbers as of yesterday.

2017 Extra bases taken success rate
Sox. 68.6%
MLB ave. 74%

2016 EBT
Sox. 70%
MLB. 73%

2017 Stolen bases
Sox. 75.5% (current)
MLB. 72.5%

2016 SB
Sox. 77.5%
MLB. 72%

2017 Benintendi
EBT 61%
SB 80% (current)

2017 combined EBT and SB
Sox. 71%
MLB. 73.6%

Looking at Fangraphs BsR stat...
2017 Sox are 14th of 30 teams at 0.6
2016 Sox were 7th in MLB at 9.6

So with this non contextual look, it seems to me that Sox overall are within a reasonable range of expectation given their approach on the bases in what has been a HR hungry season to date.
Thanks for the follow-up. Using those break-even rates from FanGraphs, I agree that the Sox are within a reasonable range, though the EBT rate is slightly lower than break-even. Benintendi's EBT success rate is far too low. I hope that, as Farrell suggested, he learns from these mistakes and improves his reads and decision-making.
 

streeter88

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Beni, despite some frustrating miscues lately, is actually rated among the best on the team with a BsR of 2.0, behind only Betts (6.2 - is there anything he's not good at?) and Bogaerts (5.5). If you want to look at who is really hurting the Sox on the basepaths, you're looking at the seasoned veterans (Pedroia, Hanley, and Leon), not the inexperienced young guys.
Yes, this bears out what a few have been saying over the past couple weeks. B-Ref has Hanley and Pedroia tied with Bogaerts for 2nd worst on the Red Sox for OOB with 7. Both of them are getting out at 2nd and at home, and Hanley has a 25% SB success rate (Pedroia's somewhat better at 57%). Bogaerts (90%) and Beni (79%) both counter with strong SB% results.

I think a lot of posters are most frustrated not with the outs at 2nd, but with the outs at 3rd, which has Beni 2nd in MLB with 4 (behind CHC Wilson Contreras). But also, as a few of us have said previously the rules should not be the same for everyone - i.e., the older, slower guys should be less aggressive on the base paths.

I was just about to write that I couldn't remember any really bad baserunning by Pedroia or Hanley lately, and then remembered Pedroia is on DL and Hanley is hurt. And even so, Hanley was out at home the first game of this past series agains CWS on a bad send by Butterfield in the 2nd inning to make the 3rd out (to be fair after the Red Sox had scored 3 more runs to go up 7-2).
 

BestGameEvah

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And even so, Hanley was out at home the first game of this past series agains CWS on a bad send by Butterfield in the 2nd inning to make the 3rd out (to be fair after the Red Sox had scored 3 more runs to go up 7-2).
Was it a bad send?
Did he have a secondary lead?
With 2 outs, was he busting around third to score?
Why didn't he score when Delmonico dropped the ball.
Contrast that w Beninntendi scoring.
Lazy base running by Hanley.
 

charlieoscar

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Sep 28, 2014
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I think you also need to pay attention to when in the game the attempts are made for extra bases and probably at what the score is. I looked simply at a runner on first with the batter hitting a double and no errors on the play for 2015-16. As can be seen, there is some variation according to the number of outs in the inning and also the inning. RS indicates the runner scored from 1st and Outs indicates he was put out. Obviously, there is a tapering off in the 9th because many games only go 8-1/2 innings.
NO OUTS~~~~~~ONE OUT~~~~~~TWO OUT~~~~~~
InnRSOutsInnRSOutsInnRSOuts
16401867111910
2351252729416
3471362739410
4312459849512
5402586451097
6541679361055
7374767471097
8411880581053
919294619555
101010221072
112011011140
121012001250
130013101310
141014001410
150015001500
160016001601