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HomeRunBaker

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TomRicardo said:
Please no Sandoval.
 
That is just a disaster waiting to happen at third.
If Sandoval were to be injured he'd have unlimited potential off the field as the spokesperson for "Giant Glass."
 

TomRicardo

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MakMan44 said:
Isn't Hanley's injury history worse than Pablo's though?


And maybe a mod could split out the Panda talk?
 
I would rather Hanley than handing Sandoval a contract and seeing him get to 285 again.
 

ehaz

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Personally I'd love Panda here, despite his fat ass he's an excellent defender - unlike other players with weight problems he's pretty agile over there.

On the other hand, Headley seems like the type of signing this FO would make. He's 4th in the MLB in line drive % despite his fairly crappy line this year. His approach has always been pretty good as well.
 

Al Zarilla

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ehaz said:
Personally I'd love Panda here, despite his fat ass he's an excellent defender - unlike other players with weight problems he's pretty agile over there.

On the other hand, Headley seems like the type of signing this FO would make. He's 4th in the MLB in line drive % despite his fairly crappy line this year. His approach has always been pretty good as well.
It all depends where he is in his weight cycle. Lately, he's crept back toward the heavier end. He's listed at 245 by both ESPN and BREF. He's rumored to have played at 280, although, who knows, has anybody gotten him on a scale and made it public when he's been that high? Over his career, April through September/October, just from watching him throughout the season, he's probably averaged somewhere in the middle, say 260. That is too heavy for a guy 5'11" (generous) and he's not an excellent defender unless he's at the lower end. You just cannot trust this guy to keep the lard off. He also goes through some pretty bad spells at the plate, .176/.265/.308 for all of April this year. And, he's having pretty close to as bad a September. 
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I would rather see Betts out of place at 3b then watch Pablo Sandoval blow up in front of our eyes while scarfing at the teet of the Red Sox payroll.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Seriously, this board might collapse in on itself after a few games of Sandoval as a Red Sox player. It will become an internet singularity as Sandoval eats Betts, Holt and Vasquez on his way to becoming the baseball equivalent of late 80s Heart. Of course The Dentist may have the marketing coup of a lifetime if he can get the Sox to allow their players to wear mumus.
 

chrisfont9

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TomRicardo said:
 
I would rather Hanley than handing Sandoval a contract and seeing him get to 285 again.
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
 

foulkehampshire

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chrisfont9 said:
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
 
I would be shocked if Panda signs a deal less than 5/80. He's a 28 year old FA...weight aside, it makes him less risky than a 31,32 year old player for a multiyear deal. 
 
A pillow contract scenario for Sandoval is borderline absurd. We're not talking about a guy like Beltre who had low stock due to multiple bad years, or a player coming off a near career-ending injury (Drew). Its a weak FA class and offense at 3B is hard to come by. He'll get his. 
 

Savin Hillbilly

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chrisfont9 said:
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
 
Yeah, but I think anticipating that Sandoval would sign a pillow contract--or more precisely, that he will need to sign a pillow contract--is overestimating how much of an off year he's had. His offense has certainly been below his career standard, but not hugely, and he's still an above-average 3B on both offense and defense.
 
I think the only way it would make sense for him to sign a pillow contract is if he can't get somebody to give him at least, say, 4/50-something--and I'd be surprised if that's the case.
 
EDIT: Or, what foulkehampshire said.
 

jscola85

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chrisfont9 said:
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
 
Sandoval is better than a 2-win player though.  bWAR has him at 3.3 this year and 2.7 last year; fWAR is at 3.0 and 2.3.  That places him somewhere between 2.5-3.0 wins.  If all it takes to get Sandoval is a 2-3 year deal at Victorino-like money, that seems like a safe bet in free agency.  Ages 29-31 are a risk for a guy with weight issues, but not a major risk, and if he performs like he has the last 2-3 years, he will be worth a 3 year, ~$40M deal.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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chrisfont9 said:
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
Sandoval has the 11th highest WAR for 3b this year.  He plays in one of the biggest pitcher's parks in baseball with an incredibly deep RF.  There's no way this guy signs a 1-year deal.  His line vs. Rs this year:  .314 / .362 / .461.  Panda is fun to watch and a good baseball player, he's not John Belushi out there.  
 
ADDITION:  Panda's average line the last 3 years (2011-2013) before this one:  .291 / .346 / .468 - That's in the biggest pitcher's park in MLB.  Plus he raked in the playoffs (didn't he hit 3 HRs in one game).  Plus the panda marketing stuff (which sells a ton in SF) and he seems to be generally well-liked.  I would LOVE for the Sox to sign him for 4 or 5 years and watch him enjoy being in a hitter's park for once. 
 
EDIT: ESPN's last 3 years don't include this year, doh.
 
(and what everyone above said)
 

jscola85

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I keep hearing Sandoval has had an "off year" - is it really that off?  It's basically the same line as 2012 and 2013:
 
2012 - .283/.342/.447, .301 BABIP, 12 HR, 118 wRC+ in 442 PAs
2013 - .278/.341/.417, .301 BABIP, 14 HR, 116 wRC+ in 584 PAs
2014 - .277/.324/.416, .297 BABIP, 16 HR, 112 wRC+ in 623 PAs
 
He's been a bit healthier but hit a bit worse this year, though not dramatically so.  Seems pretty normal to me.
 

Hee Sox Choi

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Panda had a huge 2011.  I think that raises expectations.  .315 / .357 / .552, 23 jacks in 426 ABs playing in AT&T.  
 

nighthob

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HomeRunBaker said:
If Sandoval were to be injured he'd have unlimited potential off the field as the spokesperson for "Giant Glass."
You've got an extra GL in there.
 

TomRicardo

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chrisfont9 said:
Isn't this a choice between Hanley on a multi-year deal or Panda on possibly a one- or two-year deal? The latter is a declining 2-win player with a weight problem (and  at age 28 some significant bounce-back potential) -- meaning teams can and should shy away from him, but a make-good one-year deal would be a way to right his ship (or not). If the Sox can do a single year for Sandoval, I bet they'd jump at that. 
 
People are talking about Headley getting a 3 year deal.  If Headley gets more than 2, Kung Fu Panda will as well.
 

Pilgrim

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The flip side to Sandovals weight problem is that every GM will be considering it, and he might come at a major discount relative to production if his body actually holds up. If he was shaped like Adrian Beltre rather than a bowling ball, we might be talking about 120 million or more.


I'm less worried about his fat and more worried about the knees and ankles that have been lugging that fat around.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Someone needs to explain to me why Panda is attractive if Headley isn't.  Coming off his big year, Headley is supposedly slumping, but he's a 4.0 fWAR player and was a 3.6 fWAR player last year during his supposedly terrible year.  Unlike Sandoval, we now have at least a little evidence that Headley can transition to the AL -- 207 PAs in New York and he's around his career average.  
 
Away from Petco, he's hitting .285/.359/.440.  Sandoval, rather bizarrely hits better in San Francisco than anywhere else.  Both are switch hitters, and Headley has much flatter platoon splits.  
 
Sandoval is a better hitter, for sure, and the fact that Headley took a dip under .700 OPS this year before being traded is worrying, but there are a few yellow flags with Sandoval too.  Plus, Headley always guy brings his glove.  He's had 184 chances since moving to the Yankees (138 at 3B and 46 at 1B) with only 2 errors.    
 
So, a guy with a 7+ win year on his resume in the not too distant future, who seems to be able to put up 3.5 to 4 wins fairly comfortably even when he's perceived as slumping, who has found success in the league and division, and we're gaga over Panda?  Just don't get it.  If the team is going to be looking at paying an FA eight figures a year to play 3B, I'm not sure why it would do anything other but go with the straightforward choice. 
 
Edit:  Whoops.  This belongs in the future at 3d thread, not the Panda thread.  Sorry, I got them confused.
 

Manramsclan

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Dahabenzapple2 said:
He looks like he's at 285 now
He does, and last night at that weight he made a pretty rangy play at third. Obviously anecdotal, but while watching I was pretty surprised. This isn't an argument for or against, but he looked pretty agile for a fat guy.
 

ScubaSteveAvery

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Sandoval's main advantages are athleticism and hand-eye coordination.  Both allow him to excel on defense despite his weight, and post really high contact % numbers.  In some ways, he's like Pedroia without the plate discipline.  Sandoval isn't afraid to use the opposite field when batting left-handed, which could be a bonus given the LF wall.  But I have some concerns with degradation of his skills over time.  The first is that once he loses that hand-eye coordination, he is going to turn into a really bad hitter because he hasn't learned to have good plate discipline.  His plate coverage is awesome, but if he can no longer connect when he swings outside the zone (43.9 career O-swing!!) the he's going to strike out like WMB (I'm already a little concerned that this is happening to Pedroia).  Sandoval had LASIK in the 2011 off-season so maybe this concern is overblown, but players that rely on truly gifted hand-eye coordination run the risk of washing out once that goes away.  
 
Second, the weight may erode his athleticism as he ages.  This hopefully won't be an issue with Pedroia since Pedroia stays in great shape.  But if Sandoval struggles defensively because his body starts to break down because of the fat then that is an issue on a long-term contract.  This basically happened with CC Sabathia (knee issues) and its a legitimate concern for a guy who is pushing 285.  I will say that so far, Sandoval's injury history is mainly for hamate bone injuries, so his weight hasn't caused much of an issue so far.  However, even the weight issue can theoretically impact his hand-eye coordination due to injuries and aging.  These two unknowns heighten the risk of a long term contact for Sandoval and should be taken into consideration when discussing the potential acquisition.  
 
Edit: added "no" in front of "longer connect..."
This post is a grammatical mess, I tried to clean it up some. 
 

HriniakPosterChild

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ScubaSteveAvery said:
Sandoval's main advantages are athleticism and hand-eye coordination.  Both allow him to excel on defense despite his weight, and post really high contact % numbers.  In some ways, he's like Pedroia without the plate discipline.  Sandoval isn't afraid to use the opposite field when batting left-handed, which could be a bonus given the LF wall.  But just like Pedroia I have some concerns.  The first is that once he loses that hand-eye coordination, he probably turns into a really bad hitter because he hasn't learned to have good plate discipline.  His plate coverage is awesome, but if he can longer connect when he swings outside the zone (43.9 career O-swing!!) the he's going to strike out like WMB.  I've already a little concerned that this is happening to Pedroia.  He had LASIK in the 2011 off-season so maybe this concern is overblown, but players that rely on truly gifted hand-eye coordination run the risk of washing out once that goes away. 
 
Second, the weight may erode his athleticism as he ages.  Unlike Pedroia who is in good shape, this (hopefully) won't be an issue.  But if Sandoval struggles defensively because his body starts to break down then that is an issue.  I will say that so far, his injury history is mainly for hamate bone injuries so his weight hasn't caused much of an issue so far.  But these are two unknowns that heighten the risk of a long-term contract for me.  
 
Would he accept Pedroia's invitation to be offseason workout buddies at API?
 
"Hey, Panda! When're you starting Jenny Craig?"
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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ScubaSteveAvery said:
Sandoval's main advantages are athleticism and hand-eye coordination.  Both allow him to excel on defense despite his weight, and post really high contact % numbers.  In some ways, he's like Pedroia without the plate discipline.  Sandoval isn't afraid to use the opposite field when batting left-handed, which could be a bonus given the LF wall.  But just like Pedroia I have some concerns.  The first is that once he loses that hand-eye coordination, he probably turns into a really bad hitter because he hasn't learned to have good plate discipline.  His plate coverage is awesome, but if he can longer connect when he swings outside the zone (43.9 career O-swing!!) the he's going to strike out like WMB.  I've already a little concerned that this is happening to Pedroia.  He had LASIK in the 2011 off-season so maybe this concern is overblown, but players that rely on truly gifted hand-eye coordination run the risk of washing out once that goes away. 
 
Second, the weight may erode his athleticism as he ages.  Unlike Pedroia who is in good shape, this (hopefully) won't be an issue.  But if Sandoval struggles defensively because his body starts to break down then that is an issue.  I will say that so far, his injury history is mainly for hamate bone injuries so his weight hasn't caused much of an issue so far.  But these are two unknowns that heighten the risk of a long-term contract for me.  
 
I am assuming you are missing the "no" in front of "longer connect..." and I think this is the major concern I have, fat jokes aside.  It is also why I would predict a hand-wringing thread the likes of which this board hasn't seen since we had Carl Crawford to kick around.  Simply put, Sandoval swings at a lot of pitches, be out of the zone or in it (57.2% per fangraphs).  Contrast that with Headley who has an career O-swing of 26.8% and swings at a mere 44.2% of the pitches he sees.  
 
Boston fans haven't really had a FA like Sandoval before - at least the aforementioned Crawford swung at strikes.  A typical Panda AB sees him swing at balls, strikes and even perceived slights.  As SSA points out, once he loses his hand-eye and his athleticism you are left with a fat guy with zero plate discipline.    He may not see those skills erode over the next three years.   However this is a guy who is heading into his first real payday and can't keep in shape.  What do you think he will do when he is all nice and settled with a brand new multi-million dollar contract?
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I am assuming you are missing the "no" in front of "longer connect..." and I think this is the major concern I have, fat jokes aside.  It is also why I would predict a hand-wringing thread the likes of which this board hasn't seen since we had Carl Crawford to kick around.  Simply put, Sandoval swings at a lot of pitches, be out of the zone or in it (57.2% per fangraphs).  Contrast that with Headley who has an career O-swing of 26.8% and swings at a mere 44.2% of the pitches he sees.  
 
Boston fans haven't really had a FA like Sandoval before - at least the aforementioned Crawford swung at strikes.  A typical Panda AB sees him swing at balls, strikes and even perceived slights.  As SSA points out, once he loses his hand-eye and his athleticism you are left with a fat guy with zero plate discipline.    He may not see those skills erode over the next three years.   However this is a guy who is heading into his first real payday and can't keep in shape.  What do you think he will do when he is all nice and settled with a brand new multi-million dollar contract?
Well - which do you prefer - a guy who can actually hit (regardless of how he manages to get those hits ) vs. a guy who can't hit ?

For me, I'm not exactly fond of either one .. mainly because signing a long term 3B locks X into SS - a position I'm not convinced he can play at even a mediocre level.
 

jscola85

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Someone needs to explain to me why Panda is attractive if Headley isn't.  Coming off his big year, Headley is supposedly slumping, but he's a 4.0 fWAR player and was a 3.6 fWAR player last year during his supposedly terrible year.  Unlike Sandoval, we now have at least a little evidence that Headley can transition to the AL -- 207 PAs in New York and he's around his career average.  
 
Away from Petco, he's hitting .285/.359/.440.  Sandoval, rather bizarrely hits better in San Francisco than anywhere else.  Both are switch hitters, and Headley has much flatter platoon splits.  
 
Sandoval is a better hitter, for sure, and the fact that Headley took a dip under .700 OPS this year before being traded is worrying, but there are a few yellow flags with Sandoval too.  Plus, Headley always guy brings his glove.  He's had 184 chances since moving to the Yankees (138 at 3B and 46 at 1B) with only 2 errors.    
 
So, a guy with a 7+ win year on his resume in the not too distant future, who seems to be able to put up 3.5 to 4 wins fairly comfortably even when he's perceived as slumping, who has found success in the league and division, and we're gaga over Panda?  Just don't get it.  If the team is going to be looking at paying an FA eight figures a year to play 3B, I'm not sure why it would do anything other but go with the straightforward choice. 
 
Edit:  Whoops.  This belongs in the future at 3d thread, not the Panda thread.  Sorry, I got them confused.
 
I'm just assuming that Headley re-ups with the Yankees.  He's played about as good as they could have hoped for since acquiring him and thus I don't see why they would let him go.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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jscola85 said:
 
I'm just assuming that Headley re-ups with the Yankees.  He's played about as good as they could have hoped for since acquiring him and thus I don't see why they would let him go.
 
I assume you're expecting A-Rod to move to short?  I guess that's possible, but wonder if he can really still play the position.  Everything I've seen suggests that they are going to try to replace Jeter with a short stop, not move A-Rod.
 

OptimusPapi

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A-Rod should DH. Hell at this point I can see the yanks sign Lowrie for 2 Hardy for Short and Panda for third
 

alwyn96

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ScubaSteveAvery said:
Sandoval's main advantages are athleticism and hand-eye coordination.  Both allow him to excel on defense despite his weight, and post really high contact % numbers.  In some ways, he's like Pedroia without the plate discipline.  Sandoval isn't afraid to use the opposite field when batting left-handed, which could be a bonus given the LF wall.  But I have some concerns with degradation of his skills over time.  The first is that once he loses that hand-eye coordination, he is going to turn into a really bad hitter because he hasn't learned to have good plate discipline.  His plate coverage is awesome, but if he can no longer connect when he swings outside the zone (43.9 career O-swing!!) the he's going to strike out like WMB (I'm already a little concerned that this is happening to Pedroia).  Sandoval had LASIK in the 2011 off-season so maybe this concern is overblown, but players that rely on truly gifted hand-eye coordination run the risk of washing out once that goes away.  
 
Second, the weight may erode his athleticism as he ages.  This hopefully won't be an issue with Pedroia since Pedroia stays in great shape.  But if Sandoval struggles defensively because his body starts to break down because of the fat then that is an issue on a long-term contract.  This basically happened with CC Sabathia (knee issues) and its a legitimate concern for a guy who is pushing 285.  I will say that so far, Sandoval's injury history is mainly for hamate bone injuries, so his weight hasn't caused much of an issue so far.  However, even the weight issue can theoretically impact his hand-eye coordination due to injuries and aging.  These two unknowns heighten the risk of a long term contact for Sandoval and should be taken into consideration when discussing the potential acquisition.  
 
Edit: added "no" in front of "longer connect..."
This post is a grammatical mess, I tried to clean it up some. 
 
I had thought that hand-eye coordination actually aged pretty well, as far as tools go. What the conventional wisdom on how the various tools age? Tony Gwynn did pretty well for himself. Vlad still hit for good average later in his career. If you take away any guy's main tool he's not going to look very good. Obviously Sandoval has some weaknesses, but if he didn't have those weaknesses, he'd be more expensive and more risky in that sense. 
 

jscola85

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
 
I assume you're expecting A-Rod to move to short?  I guess that's possible, but wonder if he can really still play the position.  Everything I've seen suggests that they are going to try to replace Jeter with a short stop, not move A-Rod.
 
I'm not certain A-Rod will ever be in pinstripes again.  And even if he is, he may DH more than play the field, leaving plenty of time available for Headley to play 3rd.  If Headley were to be available, I think he'd be a good fit in Boston.  The D at 3rd would be great next to Bogaerts and he can add some balance to the lineup as a guy who primarily hits left handed.
 
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