Patriots' 2024 Free Agency Thread
- Thread starter Jake Peavy's Demons
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I think it is a little early for this take. There is still money to be spent, moves to be made, players to be drafted.
The one thing that would bother me is if they don't use their cap space well.
It's the perfect storm for the media.
If they don't sign him, they're not trying to upgrade at WR. "You have to pay premium prices for elite talent".
If they do sign him to that deal, then it's "massive overpay. Exact same situation as Jonnu Smith. Just because a guy is the best player available at his position, doesn't mean he is elite and deserves a top of the market contract".
They were in a no-win situation with Ridley.
Also, I'm grateful for the lack of urgency. They're not trying to do everything possible to squeeze out maximum victories in 2024 at the expense of future years. They're definitely going to be better this year, given health on the OL and the defense, almost regardless of who plays QB. And if they happen to hit on a QB and WR in the draft, they're potentially a low wild card in 2024 and then all bets are potentially off in 2025 - that's when you have an opportunity to assess the roster and go "full throttle" with a QB and WR on a rookie deal, elite defense, etc. where you can do some of those acquisitions that are only possible while your stars are on rookie deals.
If they don't sign him, they're not trying to upgrade at WR. "You have to pay premium prices for elite talent".
If they do sign him to that deal, then it's "massive overpay. Exact same situation as Jonnu Smith. Just because a guy is the best player available at his position, doesn't mean he is elite and deserves a top of the market contract".
They were in a no-win situation with Ridley.
Also, I'm grateful for the lack of urgency. They're not trying to do everything possible to squeeze out maximum victories in 2024 at the expense of future years. They're definitely going to be better this year, given health on the OL and the defense, almost regardless of who plays QB. And if they happen to hit on a QB and WR in the draft, they're potentially a low wild card in 2024 and then all bets are potentially off in 2025 - that's when you have an opportunity to assess the roster and go "full throttle" with a QB and WR on a rookie deal, elite defense, etc. where you can do some of those acquisitions that are only possible while your stars are on rookie deals.
"Pats Twitter" must be like the virtual equivalent of a root canal on the back of a motorcycle.
Everyone falls victim to the narratives and false excitement of free agency. That's despite the fact that year after year the big signings that happen look in hindsight like bad moves (generally speaking). So I'll give these guys the benefit of the doubt for now. They are trying to do the right thing for winning, not the right thing to grab some early headlines. It's incremental. It can test people's patience. Ultimately they'll be assessed on the product they put out on the field over the next two or three years. That said, we all see the clear holes on the roster at critical positions. They will need to do something to address OT and WR through some combination of FA and the draft. The FA options are dwindling. That puts a lot of pressure on the draft and inexperienced players.
I'd like to see them replace Parker by taking a shot on DJ Chark and/or Donovan Peoples Jones. Both are big 6'2"+ and 200lb+ downfield threats that this team currently doesn't have. Chark is entering his age 28 season and DPJ his age 25 season. DPJ put up 839yds in just 14 starts as a 23 YO in 2022 and was inexplicably phased out of the CLE offense last year before being traded to DET. Both may flame out entirely but there is a chance at some upside, esp with DPJ given his age, and they should both come cheap and fill a position of need as NE doesn't really have any boundary receivers at this time.
I'd direct a decent chunk of the remaining cap room towards extending Barmore, assuming he is willing to agree to a contract instead of testing FA. Pay him $18mm to $20mm or something on a four year deal, slot him under Wilkins while rewarding him for his development and play on his rookie contract (UFA in 25).
There's a reason SOSH is the only place I go for fan-based local sports content. Even at its game-thready worst it never remotely comes close to the dumpster fire of twitter/facebook/some of the people on my group text
My wish list (in no particular order)
- Mike Williams on a 2-yr deal
- DJ Humphries (he'll be an injury redshirt--or maybe PUP--but he could be your starting LT in 2025 at a bargain price coming off the ACL and late cut...this is a Bill looking to the future type move)
- One of the young centerfielder safeties (Curl, Simmons, Blackmon, Fuller - whichever one gets antsy enough to sign a multi-year deal at a bargain price)
- Extend Barmore
- OBJ (as a fallback if Williams is too expensive); he can still run routes and get separation even if a lot of the juice is gone
- Gilmore (Perfect Gonzo mentor)
Totally agree, and this plan may need to include a couple short-term investments, like a deal with a competent LT (hello, Tyron) so as to not get our rookie QB murdered.
Likewise, for the sake of our QB, we ought to have one very good WR and a couple good ones. Between Bourne and Douglas, we probably have one good one covered. But it'd be great to land a WR pre-draft who's good or very good. My preference would be to sign Mike Williams rather than lose draft picks in a trade. We need #34.
All to say, signing Tyron Smith and Williams will go a long way toward demonstrating there is a plan.
The Pats new OC was in Cleveland when DPJ was phased out, so unless that was a HC driven decision over the objections of his offensive staff I’d be surprised if we see the Pats show interest. Hard to know what to make of Chark given the dumpster fire of a situation he was in last year, but I always liked him when he was in Jacksonville.
True, he was also there when DPJ went for 800+ yds in limited action. If nothing else he has more info on him so I guess that says a lot about how he views the fit.
I wouldn't give Mike Williams more than 1-2 heavily incentivized years, he gives me Mike Thomas vibes. Big WRs that are frequently injured don't last long once they start racking up injuries. Let someone else give him the guaranteed 3+yr contract he is sure to get.
I wonder if Williams is even going to sign before the draft. He's coming off an ACL and is less than 6 months post-surgery. Wonder if he might want to wait until May or June, when he won't be play ready likely but will be workout ready. Now, the flip side is more money available earlier, but given how cap hits can be shifted he could get more guarantees later in the process by being healthier.
Not picking on you, T4W, but this phrase gives me really nasty flashbacks to a year ago.
(Also, to whenever I hear about the Sox 2B defense this year.)
Here's hoping that we add "availability" as a key OL ability in 2024.
I get what you're saying, but they went 4-13. I don't have any metrics handy but I would bet that the average 4 win team improves by 2-3 wins year over year historically.
IMO they're in a better place than they were headed into the 2001 draft.
Better place than early April 2001 is certainly an interesting take
Prior to the 2001 draft, they had almost all their starters set including arguably 2 franchise QBs on the roster. If you combined the 2024 and 2001 pre-draft rosters how many starters are you getting from 2024? Less than half for sure.
Gonzalez looked promising but I’m not taking him over Ty Law. Dugger and Peppers are good but not taking either over 2001 Milloy. In the front 7, only Barmore and Judon would start on that 2001 pre-draft roster. I’d take Troy Brown and David Patten over Douglas/Bourne. Woody was probably a little better than current Andrews. The 2001 front 7 even without Seymour was better and much deeper than this current group. Vinatieri was just a bit better than Ryland. Buckley was better than Marcus Jones etc
Stevenson, Henry, Onwenu are better than the 2001 counterparts. Maybe Jonathan Jones is a little better than Otis Smith.
And of course, that’s ignoring the era that team played in where you could get by with mediocre talent at skill positions which really isn’t the case today and the current AFC is a lot more loaded than the 2001
I think a lot of this stuff is true in retrospect, but not necessarily at the time. No one thought the Patriots O line was anything special headed into 2001. McGinest was injury prone. Vrabel was a Steeler cast off. Guys like Pfifer and Anthony Pleasant were just veteran plugs. Ditto Otis. Bledsoe was already past his prime and we had no idea who Tom Brady was.
I'm not trying to argue that the 2024 team is poised to make a similar run. But given the opportunity at 3, there is a path to it coming together pretty quickly. It's not a dumpster fire of a roster for a team picking 3rd, which is usually the case.
There are way too many holes on offense after drafting a QB at 3 (assuming thats what they do) including OT, WR, and TE, in addition to needs on defense, to be giving up that much draft capital. Jefferson is awesome, and would fill a need, but I don't think we'd be taking advantage of his talents with a rookie QB, not right away at least.
What are the chances you find someone elite with one of those picks? Honestly, if the Pats love whatever QB is at 3, that's a swing that I would take, assuming you can sign Jefferson to a market contract.
I'd do it in a heartbeat. That's a lesser price than what Tyreek commanded and Jefferson in my view is a better, more versatile receiver, not to mention younger. To me it's a no brainer, he's arguably a top 10 player in the sport in a very valuable position.
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Definitely better than 2024 assumes perfect health (or better health at the key spots at least), equivalent or easier opponents (is Rodgers going to be worse than Z.Wilson?) and that Mayo and staff are better than the 2023 coaches.
The issue with trading for Jefferson is that you will likely have to give him the largest non-QB contract in the league, which Jefferson has said he is looking for. So something like 33 million plus for 4 or 5 years, with 120 plus million guaranteed (that’s Bosa’s deal). Tough to tie up that much cap space in one player.
Am I the only one who might be able to talk themselves into signing Jimmy G, drafting a project QB in round 3 or 4, trading down a few spots to pick up some picks, and taking MHJ, Odunze, or Nabers?
I've always been higher than most on Jimmy G, but I think he can still lead a contender if he stays healthy, and having Jacoby and a QB prospect in the wings would help alleviate the injury concerns.
I've always been higher than most on Jimmy G, but I think he can still lead a contender if he stays healthy, and having Jacoby and a QB prospect in the wings would help alleviate the injury concerns.
The Patriots won't be paying anything for the QB position for the next 4 years at the least, they could afford it easily.
If the Patriots draft a QB who looks like Bryce Young after his first season, even if this team goes 7-10 on the back of a great defense, it was a terrible year. Assuming a QB pick, which feels safe at this point, everything about everything relates to our QB development in 2024. Brissett feels like a great addition for that. The only urgency this team has is protecting this quarterback literally and developing him in every way. Whatever receiver can do that should be the addition.
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Jimmy G is suspended for the first four games, which makes his potential acquisition much less appealing.
For sure, but that's basically the equivalent of the AJ Brown and Tyreek deals in the 2025 market. That's the cost if you want a #1 WR on a second contract. The real issue is timing, I think. You do this deal if you're a playoff team ready to become a real contender, but probably not if you are dregs trying to become a playoff team.
hopefully yes... Jimmy G is totally done (also suspended), Brissett is better by a good bit. Project
I think it's exactly the kind of move you make with a good, established defense and a QB on a rookie deal.
Isn't he a UFA in 2025? All that draft capital for the right to pay him $19 million for one year? Or maybe franchise him and get two years?
Trying to better understand your position. Jefferson isn’t even 25 yet. You lock up his prime and you’ve given your new QB a great development piece and significantly improved your offense.
You might be, yeah.
Even if Jimmy somehow stayed healthy after serving his suspension, he'd be at best the 10th best QB in the AFC? Probably lower depending upon your feeling about Deshaun and Russ. And on the downside of his career. They gotta swing big at QB.
I'd consider this if I were a team one WR away from contention.
The Patriots have no business going all-in on one non-QB with their roster.
you also sacrifice the two best shots you have to get a key young player to pair with your QB, and a bunch of $ to build out the team.
may be worth it, but you're giving up a ton of potential additions to make that move.
I don't really know how this stuff works. Would the Vikings have to extend him first or do you basically hammer it all out with the agent first? I don't remember too many deals like that.
Wouldn't it just be better to wait until you see if he becomes a free agent in 2025? Then just sign him as a FA and don't give up anything.
(Sorry, I'm sure this is obvious to others but I don't really understand how this would work.)
I’d think I’d rather try to pry Aiyuk away from SF for something like #34 and a 2025 second round pick if they would take that, although it might be a bit light. I’d be reluctant to include a future first since it could easily land in the top 10 again…
Yes, but you’re also locking in a guaranteed return whereas you have no idea what those picks would yield. Biggest issue for me is figuring out the OT issue, which would be difficult without 34 and next year’s picks.
It is like the tag and trade, you get permission to talk contract, he agrees, you make the trade he signs the extension.
He's never going to be a UFA. He'll get tagged, then if he won't extend he'll get tagged again.
Fully agree with this. 2024 is 100% about the QB. I think they’re going to win 7 games almost by default.
In the spirit of giving my rookie QB the best possible chance to succeed, I’d make the trade for Jefferson, but reasonable minds can differ.
sure, that's the only reason to consider it. But he highest paid WR in the league, even if he;s the best WR in the league is less valuable than "one of the better WRs in the league" on a rookie deal, or "starting LT on a rookie deal". especially given that WRs peak early.
Teams generally build long term success by using draft picks to get big performance for small money.
He'll get franchised no? I expect the Vikings just to pay him whatever he wants, don't see him becoming available. At this point, I'm inclined to just take as many shots in the draft vs. moving multiple premium picks for a WR. JJ is at the weird level of insanely good that the trade assets + contract extension needed for him won't be worth it to the acquiring, and letting him go doesn't help his old team either.
I'd argue the game now is drafting your WRs paying them a year or two of big salary tops then moving them on for more picks you use to get more good players.
I look at the teams who paid huge amounts for their WRs...
MIA: playoff team not contender
LV: Trash
BUF: Pretty successful
PHI- won a SB, playoff team
now the teams that traded those guys:
KC: Dynasty
GB: Rebuilt into one of the better young teams, playoff wins
MIN: drafted a better WR, decent success not great
TEN: whiffed on a bunch of picks... bad.
It doesn't seem like the teams that traded for the big $ WRs did better than those that traded them away, and the ones with the most success mostly came early and now the WRs are being talked about as maybe moved for $ reasons.
I would suggest that this is exactly the time the Patriots can reasonably afford to pay top dollar for a young, elite WR — they're likely to be paying Maye or Daniels on a rookie scale contract for the next 5 years.