Patriots 53-man Roster Projections

[Pandemonium67]

I think the market inefficiency BB is exploiting is that it typically takes draftees a couple of years before they really contribute. He's trading away those picks for guys who have been in the league a few years, are still cheap, are stronger, can contribute more quickly, and have been playing against NFL competition for the Pats to scout.

Either that or we're creeping toward GFIN territory.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think the market inefficiency BB is exploiting is that it typically takes draftees a couple of years before they really contribute. He's trading away those picks for guys who have been in the league a few years, are still cheap, are stronger, can contribute more quickly, and have been playing against NFL competition for the Pats to scout.

Either that or we're creeping toward GFIN territory.

Is there really much of a difference between a 6th/7th round player and an UDFA? I don't think we approach GFIN territory until mid-round or lower picks are being sent out.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm a bit surprised the Pats are trading away so many draft picks since it would seem they can fill some of these holes from just signing today's cuts from other teams. I mean Bademosi and Marsh don't seem anything special and combined, cost 3 drafts choices (5-7).

They have to be more aggressive in upgrading their roster due to the fact they have 32nd priority in waiver claims. Bill is targeting players he likes and trading for them instead of waiting to see if they get the claim. Teams higher on the priority list can operate differently.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I wouldn't be shocked if Bill doesn't see much difference between 5th rounders and UDFA. I'd be interested to see productivity level study for late rounders.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I don't know if "market inefficiency" is the right way to express the point, but I definitely think Belichick views the draft very differently from how many other teams tend to view it, and it's not just the last year. I don't think it's GFIN, since some of the things the team does are definitely long term focused. I think Belichick is just not convinced of the value in draft picks, and much behavior that we've seen -- preferring a back up QB to seemingly "high" picks, trading down, using a 1st round pick to trade for a position where we already had depth (before Jules got hurt of course), taking guys in the draft that seem like they will be available later -- backs this up. I think he views them as lottery tickets at best, despite your best efforts, and he'd rather do things his way than gamble.

Part of it is that the team rarely picks in a spot where it would be highly invested in the draft anyway. He has had exactly one top 10 pick ever -- Mayo at 10 -- and so he is almost never picking a guy where you have a super high confidence level that he'll be a multi-year starter, so he's had to adapt. In retrospect, sometimes you hit with pick 32, but certainly not always. When is the last time that there's been a guy available for the Patriots who didn't have significant question marks or wasn't a gamble? Maybe Solder, and they took him at 17. Even when you "hit," you can hit on a guy who doesn't fit right.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Would TJ Ward make sense as an in the box hybrid LB?

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Yes, if the box is a coffin

 

[dcmissle]

I don't know if "market inefficiency" is the right way to express the point, but I definitely think Belichick views the draft very differently from how many other teams tend to view it, and it's not just the last year. I don't think it's GFIN, since some of the things the team does are definitely long term focused. I think Belichick is just not convinced of the value in draft picks, and much behavior that we've seen -- preferring a back up QB to seemingly "high" picks, trading down, using a 1st round pick to trade for a position where we already had depth (before Jules got hurt of course), taking guys in the draft that seem like they will be available later -- backs this up. I think he views them as lottery tickets at best, despite your best efforts, and he'd rather do things his way than gamble.

Part of it is that the team rarely picks in a spot where it would be highly invested in the draft anyway. He has had exactly one top 10 pick ever -- Mayo at 10 -- and so he is almost never picking a guy where you have a super high confidence level that he'll be a multi-year starter, so he's had to adapt. In retrospect, sometimes you hit with pick 32, but certainly not always. When is the last time that there's been a guy available for the Patriots who didn't have significant question marks or wasn't a gamble? Maybe Solder, and they took him at 17. Even when you "hit," you can hit on a guy who doesn't fit right.

How could you forget the most famous disparaged "tweener" (Borges) in NFL history -- Richard Seymour (6th overall, 2001)?

I agree there's something to this and it bears watching. It would not be shiny and new. George Allen.

I also think Red Oct makes an excellent point. They are filling need with today's trades, not taking fliers. When you're 32 in line, you really cannot count on the guy you want getting to you.

 

[chief1]

I wouldn't be shocked if Bill doesn't see much difference between 5th rounders and UDFA. I'd be interested to see productivity level study for late rounders.

absolutely agree with this. especially this year with a very deep draft.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Oh yeah -- Seymour. Man, it's crazy how much the Patriots have resisted the parity inducing effects of the NFL.

 

[pappymojo]

Another factor to today's moves is that the Patriots have a stacked team and the players being acquired should be able to earn a strating position on special teams (assuming Dorsett returns punts and maybe kick offs).

 

[Super Nomario]

Slater, Ebner, and King have all been banged up, right? They may feel like they need ST help to get through the first few weeks

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using SoSH mobile app

 

[Pandemonium67]

True, but on the other hand they cut Bolden, a special teams ace.

 

[Stitch01]

Might just be hard to keep four guys without positions as pure STers right now given the need to figure out the back end of the roster at CB and DE. Decent chance Bolden doesn't get picked up.

 

[Stitch01]

I wouldn't be shocked if Bill doesn't see much difference between 5th rounders and UDFA. I'd be interested to see productivity level study for late rounders.

It's also reasonably easy to get a 5th through 7th rounder if you decide you see something of value there.

 

[pappymojo]

Might just be hard to keep four guys without positions as pure STers right now given the need to figure out the back end of the roster at CB and DE. Decent chance Bolden doesn't get picked up.

Bademosi and Marsh at least play defensive positions (CB and DE respectively) when not playing special teams. Maybe the Pats prefer that to a special teams player who is a backup RB like Bolden.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah that's what I mean. They obviously aren't adverse to keeping pure sters around but some of the injuries at other spots plus the running back depth might have just made Bolden too much of a luxury to start the year. Not like he's going to be a hot commodity on the open market.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

True, but on the other hand they cut Bolden, a special teams ace.

A lot of rumblings from the local beat writers that Bolden may be back on the roster as soon as the next couple of days. Lots of change and activity over the coming week.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Wasn't the deadline more than three hours ago? Shouldn't the current 53 be known by now?

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Michael Bennett quote on Cassius Marsh from lots of places, including www.bostonsportsjournal.com:

“This is a guy who has worked with me all this summer and to see his progression as a player, his conditioning, his work ethic and his mindset for the game this year,” Bennett said of Marsh. “I think Cassius is going to be a guy who is very exciting and it is going to be a really great year.”

Edit adding specifics.

 

[mwonow]

What an interesting end to the preseason! As several others have noted, looks like BB has targeted a serious upgrade in special teams skills at the end of the roster, which makes sense when the OD 11+ are already stacked.

Plus, speed, and lots of it, for everything from bubble screens to go routes.

I can't wait for the games to count!

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

With Boldin, Karras(!), Carr, AND Lucien all cut, this is another dizzying set of moves by BB & the Crew.

As Ress noted in his Tweet (Lucien with an injury settlement), it seems there were as many reasons for BB to get another WR as the Colts were to get a backup QB.

 

[tims4wins]

Guessing more moves happen tomorrow, like McClellin to IR and someone like Bolden or Freeny or whoever back

 

[Ed Hillel]

Four UDFA from this year on the original 53.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Four UDFA from this year on the original 53.

A few of us speculated last season that Pats success with UDFAs likely was related to their increased willingness to deal late picks. This cut down day sure seems to continue that trend

 

[tims4wins]

Is Garcia eligible to return this year?

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Guessing more moves happen tomorrow, like McClellin to IR and someone like Bolden or Freeny or whoever back

Hoping Karras because I'm not certain who's backing up Andrews at the moment

 

[tims4wins]

Hoping Karras because I'm not certain who's backing up Andrews at the moment

Can Croston play center?

 

[8slim]

Is Garcia eligible to return this year?

NESN link indicated he could come back after game 8.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Just curious .... How many of the first 53 won't be on the roster Thursday?

 

[tims4wins]

NESN link indicated he could come back after game 8.

Thanks

 

[tims4wins]

Just curious .... How many of the first 53 won't be on the roster Thursday?

I am guessing 3+

 

[Saints Rest]

Just curious .... How many of the first 53 won't be on the roster Thursday?

A more interesting question is who will be the 7 inactives? This roster is deep.

 

[thehitcat]

I am guessing 3+

N

Not with the game on Thursday. If they had until Sunday I agree but they just don't have that much time. I think no more than 1 and if I were Hollister I wouldn't get too comfy.

 

[dcmissle]

Assume someone cut today they definitely want back. What's the deadline for doing that to make sure they can't get claimed? Assuming this is possible,

 

[E5 Yaz]

A more interesting question is who will be the 7 inactives?

How dare you! Mine was the more interesting question.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Can Croston play center?

Looking at his profile on the Pats website, looks to be just a tackle. Played left and right at Iowa.

http://www.patriots.com/team/players/roster/cole-croston

 

[mcpickl]

Assume someone cut today they definitely want back. What's the deadline for doing that to make sure they can't get claimed?

Everyone cut today can be claimed(or signed if they're a vested veteran).

Can't guarantee getting anyone back you just cut.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

In terms of backup center, saw this just now on Twitter. Still not sure who steps in for Thuney at guard if he has to move over. No depth in the interior.


Joe Thuney spent time as Jacoby Brissett's center in college. I would imagine he'd be the backup there.

 

[Hector Salamanca]

With Karras(!) cut, this is another dizzying set of moves by BB & the Crew.

Mongo only pawn in game of football.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Croston may have played OT in college, but my understanding is that he was seen more as an interior lineman in the NFL, and played those positions during the pre season. Which makes more sense given otherwise they have NO interior lineman depth.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

@dougkyed
Not sure what the Patriots' plans are at punt returner, but Jeremy Kerley is an interesting name to hit the market. 155 career punt returns.

Kerley's name popped out to me as well. Per wiki, as recently as 2015 he had career-highs in punt returns (48) and punt return yards (411). Also, he can secure the ball -- only 3 fumbles out of his career 246 receptions.

He's only 28 and can also fill in the slot if Amendola goes out (shudder).

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I love the idea of Kerley, but given the current roster construction - which, true, will change a lot during the next week, but likely WON'T change at WR - I doubt they'd be able to justify bringing him in.

 

[Ale Xander]

So ecstatic for Jacob Hollister to make the roster, even though I expect him to be inactive at the start. Fun watching him play. If he is active, I expect to see him in the slot frequently, along with Gronk, Cooks, White, and Lewis, joining Dola.

 

[Ale Xander]

A more interesting question is who will be the 7 inactives? This roster is deep.

At least 1 DB, maybe 2. Develin or Hollister. One of the LB's.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I doubt Develin will be inactive much. Not just the FB thing, but special teams and, perhaps as important, he's the backup long snapper.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So ecstatic for Jacob Hollister to make the roster, even though I expect him to be inactive at the start. Fun watching him play. If he is active, I expect to see him in the slot frequently, along with Gronk, Cooks, White, and Lewis, joining Dola.

Wooo Pig Soooie

They do the Arkansas rally cry at Wyoming?

 

[RedOctober3829]

It will be interesting to see how many more moves will happen today. 1:00 today is the deadline to claim players.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Mike Reiss ESPN Staff Writer
After taking about how difficult it is to cut players, Bill Belichick was asked how nice it is to tell a young player they have made the roster. He noted how plenty of players on rosters in Week 1 won't be on rosters in Week 3-4. The key, he said, is for players not to get complacent. He compared making the initial roster to a "castle in the sand; it could be gone very, very quickly."

 

[amfox1]

Ben Volin‏ @BenVolin 2m2 minutes ago
Not one player who played a defensive snap for the Patriots in their 4th preseason game vs the Giants made the team's initial 53