Patriots-Jags Discussion

54thMA

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Yeah, maybe it explains Bentley getting pancaked on the goal line on one of the Bills TD's and Juddon doing nothing all day long to what, a second/third string tackle?

Their linebackers stunk on ice yesterday.
 

Soxy

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Things I learned today: old friend Malcom Brown is a Jacksonville Jaguar. I discovered that when seeing his name was on the NFL covid list for testing positive, along with uh 10 other Jaguars. Which seems like a lot. If they already have 11 guys testing positive...... yikes.
 

lexrageorge

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Things I learned today: old friend Malcom Brown is a Jacksonville Jaguar. I discovered that when seeing his name was on the NFL covid list for testing positive, along with uh 10 other Jaguars. Which seems like a lot. If they already have 11 guys testing positive...... yikes.
Jacob Hollister, former backup TE for the Pats, is also on the Jags.
 

axx

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Jets got 273 yards rushing yesterday. Guessing that'll be the gameplan, run the ball 40 times?
 

54thMA

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Jets got 273 yards rushing yesterday. Guessing that'll be the gameplan, run the ball 40 times?
I'd sign up for that; hopefully Stevenson will be back by then, just run at them until they show they can stop it.

And get Henry more involved in the offense too.
 

AB in DC

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James Robinson, the only halfway decent skill player on the Jax offense, is out for the year with an Achilles tear.

I know the Pats defense looked horrible on Sunday, but barring another major COVID outbreak I don't see the Jags scoring more than 10-14 points.
 

SMU_Sox

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We think Bentley has had a rare case of COVID for 2 years that presents with a shocking lack of speed or lateral agility?
I get the joke but that’s who he is and he has had a very good year for them. His run defense is exceptional. He looks out of position against a spread team and that’s unfortunate. I think I’d rather have a safety when we play KC and the Bills vs Bentley as the focus has to be on their pass. Against more balanced teams he’s fine. Oh he has some limitations but he isn’t getting exposed in his dropbacks and those are mostly checkdowns anyway.
 

Cellar-Door

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I get the joke but that’s who he is and he has had a very good year for them. His run defense is exceptional. He looks out of position against a spread team and that’s unfortunate. I think I’d rather have a safety when we play KC and the Bills vs Bentley as the focus has to be on their pass. Against more balanced teams he’s fine. Oh he has some limitations but he isn’t getting exposed in his dropbacks and those are mostly checkdowns anyway.
Yeah, he's a situational player, my point was, the Bills exploited his well known weaknesses, and we couldn't do much to adjust. He wasn't terrible in coverage last week because he might have had COVID, he was terrible because we needed him to do things he doesn't have the speed or quickness to do.

I really do think Bill has to suck it up and draft a quicker smaller linebacker at some point, or I guess carry more safeties every year, the big LBs thing works against some teams, but I feel like good offenses are going to shred it, like they have this year at times (DAL, BUF, etc.) even bad offenses can eat up our LBs with RB passes. And having no other options on the roster is gonna kill us in the playoffs.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Looking for more than these types of posts.

Thanks.
Could use a little more depth, but its kind of a fair assessment.

I think the larger point is that we're not missing out on the Matthew Judon for 6 weeks ago. We're missing out on the guy that's been neutralized for 2 weeks.

I was reading that the Bills did a good job of throwing multiple blockers his way. But he absolutely has not been himself. A few not-super-thought-out possibilities.
  • Bills/Colts gameplanned him well the last 2 weeks
  • Covid
  • Lingering injury (he went down for a few snaps a few weeks ago)
  • Hes hit a playing time wall (this is the most snaps hes evere had in a season by a large margin)
  • Coaching (He got lost up field a few times in the first Bills matchup leading to large running alleys for Allen; I wonder if he isn't pinning his ears back as much to help protect the edge)
  • Random 2 bad games
I'd guess its a combo of some of these, just not sure which ones.
 

54thMA

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The concern I have about this team going forward is opponents do not fear their defense, the Colts and Bills went for it multiple times the past two weeks on fourth down, the Colts twice if I am not mistaken from their own 40 or thereabouts.

This might speak more to not fearing the Patriots offense; I can't imagine Reich going for it up 14-0 on fourth down from his own 40 if Brady was the QB; I mean the guy is a genius, just ask him, but would he really risk giving Brady a short field like that?

This is not a shot/criticism of Mac Jones, who IMO has done a very good job this year, he's still a rookie afterall and he's done very well all things considered.

Are we going to see more teams like the Jaguars, Dolphins and any possible playoff opponent going for it on 4th down?

We'll have to see.
 

Mystic Merlin

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The concern I have about this team going forward is opponents do not fear their defense, the Colts and Bills went for it multiple times the past two weeks on fourth down, the Colts twice if I am not mistaken from their own 40 or thereabouts.

This might speak more to not fearing the Patriots offense; I can't imagine Reich going for it up 14-0 on fourth down from his own 40 if Brady was the QB; I mean the guy is a genius, just ask him, but would he really risk giving Brady a short field like that?

This is not a shot/criticism of Mac Jones, who IMO has done a very good job this year, he's still a rookie afterall and he's done very well all things considered.

Are we going to see more teams like the Jaguars, Dolphins and any possible playoff opponent going for it on 4th down?

We'll have to see.
Well who knows, but Reich is aggressive on fourth down, and him going for that says more about what he thinks about the interior run D of the Pats DL than the opposing QB.

I mean, wouldn’t he be MORE likely to go for that if Brady is on the other sideline? You can’t afford to dump any possessions in that scenario by adopting a low variance strategy.
 

BigSoxFan

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The concern I have about this team going forward is opponents do not fear their defense, the Colts and Bills went for it multiple times the past two weeks on fourth down, the Colts twice if I am not mistaken from their own 40 or thereabouts.

This might speak more to not fearing the Patriots offense; I can't imagine Reich going for it up 14-0 on fourth down from his own 40 if Brady was the QB; I mean the guy is a genius, just ask him, but would he really risk giving Brady a short field like that?

This is not a shot/criticism of Mac Jones, who IMO has done a very good job this year, he's still a rookie afterall and he's done very well all things considered.

Are we going to see more teams like the Jaguars, Dolphins and any possible playoff opponent going for it on 4th down?

We'll have to see.
All of those 4th down attempts were 4th and 2 of shorter from no further than their own 40 yard line, including many on the Pats’ side. Not sure that’s indicative of a lack of fear of the Pats defense or just sound strategy.
 

BigSoxFan

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Well who knows, but Reich is aggressive on fourth down, and him going for that says more about what he thinks about the interior run D of the Pats DL than the opposing QB.

I mean, wouldn’t he be MORE likely to go for that if Brady is on the other sideline? You can’t afford to dump any possessions in that scenario by adopting a low variance strategy.
Yup. And all of the Colts’ attempts were 4th and 1 in a game where they were easily winning the battle of the trenches. With a good sneaker like Wentz, Taylor, and a defense that was controlling the Pats’ offense, they were no brainer attempts, IMO.
 

54thMA

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All of those 4th down attempts were 4th and 2 of shorter from no further than their own 40 yard line, including many on the Pats’ side. Not sure that’s indicative of a lack of fear of the Pats defense or just sound strategy.
One of the Bills 4th down attempts was 4th and 7; granted, maybe they were not going to run a play and hoped to bait the Patriots into jumping by, oh, I don't know, having the center do the classic head bob.
 

54thMA

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Well who knows, but Reich is aggressive on fourth down, and him going for that says more about what he thinks about the interior run D of the Pats DL than the opposing QB.

I mean, wouldn’t he be MORE likely to go for that if Brady is on the other sideline? You can’t afford to dump any possessions in that scenario by adopting a low variance strategy.
Very true; Brady was opposite him in the SB when he was the OC for the Eagles, but that did not stop him from going for it on 4th down several times, probably because the Eagles defense was not stopping New England anytime soon in that game.

And I thought the Patriots had done a good job of shoring up the interior run defense/defensive line with Barnmore and Godchaux...................
 

tims4wins

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One of the Bills 4th down attempts was 4th and 7; granted, maybe they were not going to run a play and hoped to bait the Patriots into jumping by, oh, I don't know, having the center do the classic head bob.
FWIW Reiss noted that he spoke to a former official about this play, who said he’d have called a false start. Just another one of those very close plays that went against the Pats.
 

54thMA

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FWIW Reiss noted that he spoke to a former official about this play, who said he’d have called a false start. Just another one of those very close plays that went against the Pats.
I see Mike Reiss all the time at the post office I go to, he's a great guy, knows his stuff.
 

ShaneTrot

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I am very excited to see Lawrence. He has no real weapons and the Jaguars have 21 drops. The Pats have only 8. I was listening to the Athletic podcast a few weeks ago and their take was he has been pretty good but the talent around him sucks and they are always behind.
 

BaseballJones

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I'd like to think that NE should win handily this week. Then we are rooting for either a Miami or Vegas loss.

Miami at Tennessee
Vegas at Indianapolis

I'd like to also think that the likelihood of both Miami and Vegas winning is pretty small, given the caliber of their opponents (even with Wentz not playing). So I imagine the odds of New England clinching a playoff spot this week are pretty good.
 

Mooch

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Apparently, Judon is scheduled to speak with the media today. That's always a good sign that a Pats player will suit up on Sunday.
 

simplyeric

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I'd like to think that NE should win handily this week. Then we are rooting for either a Miami or Vegas loss.

Miami at Tennessee
Vegas at Indianapolis

I'd like to also think that the likelihood of both Miami and Vegas winning is pretty small, given the caliber of their opponents (even with Wentz not playing). So I imagine the odds of New England clinching a playoff spot this week are pretty good.
Easy to root for a Miami loss.
harder to root for a Colts win. But I’ll do it!
Judon has been dog shit for weeks though not just yesterday
was it confirmed why Judon went on The List? Did he test positive, show symptoms, or was it a potential exposure scenario?
I took from your post the idea that maybe he had an asymptomatic or, more specifically, ‘low-symptomatic’ case of Covid. Like, he got it, and suffered very mild symptoms…mild enough to not trigger real alarm, but strong enough to induce some fatigue or what have you.
of course, that wouldn’t mesh well with a recent Covid diagnosis, unless he’s somehow still harboring it.
 

tims4wins

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I sure as hell am not rooting for the Colts to win. The Pats best path at this point is the 5 seed. The Pats need to finish a game ahead of the Colts for this to happen.
 

Euclis20

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I sure as hell am not rooting for the Colts to win. The Pats best path at this point is the 5 seed. The Pats need to finish a game ahead of the Colts for this to happen.
At this point (#1 seed gone, division very unlikely), making the playoffs is far more important than individual seeding. Absolutely nobody wants to head to Miami in week 18 needing a win to make the playoffs, so I'm taking all the help we can get.

*edit - at this point it isn't even about Miami being a relative house of horrors for the pats over the last 20 years. It'd be heading on the road, needing a win, vs a division opponent that at that point had won 8 straight games and had already beaten the Pats once this year. That's a terrible situation to be in.
 

BaseballJones

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Preference (obviously hoping the Pats win):

1. Vegas wins, Dolphins lose

2. Vegas loses, Dolphins win

Either option, combined with a Pats win, clinches the playoffs for NE. But the first option clinches the Pats playoff berth while also helping them with the seeding.

But at this point, I won’t be picky. I’ll take either, happily.
 

tims4wins

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At this point (#1 seed gone, division very unlikely), making the playoffs is far more important than individual seeding. Absolutely nobody wants to head to Miami in week 18 needing a win to make the playoffs, so I'm taking all the help we can get.

*edit - at this point it isn't even about Miami being a relative house of horrors for the pats over the last 20 years. It'd be heading on the road, needing a win, vs a division opponent that at that point had won 8 straight games and had already beaten the Pats once this year. That's a terrible situation to be in.
You are correct that needing a win in Miami wouldn’t be ideal. But I just want to point out this is the exact position the Bills were in one week prior to the game in New England. The Pats had won 7 in a row including in Buffalo. But then the Pats lost in Indy and home to Buffalo. Miami could very well have the same thing happen to them - loss at Tennessee, loss vs. the Pats. Things change quickly in the NFL. If Miami loses this week are they eliminated from the playoffs? That has the potential to impact week 17.

Edit found it. This confirms my thoughts. Go Raiders. This scenario is plausible. Eliminating Miami would be good heading into week 18 IMO.


The Dolphins will be eliminated in Week 17 if ...
This scenario obviously begins with Tennessee ending the Dolphins' winning streak at seven games.
If that happens, and Las Vegas wins at Indianapolis, New England wins at home against Jacksonville and the L.A. Chargers win at home against Denver, then the Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention.
 
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54thMA

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I sure as hell am not rooting for the Colts to win. The Pats best path at this point is the 5 seed. The Pats need to finish a game ahead of the Colts for this to happen.
Agreed, I don't want them winning, I want them to lose to improve the Patriots seeding.

Then need to win the last two games, finish 11-6 and get that #5 seed if the Colts lose, or #6 if they don't, as long as they get in, that's all I care about at this point.

Whoever they play, they play, it's going to be three games on the road for a shot to go to the Super Bowl.
 

tims4wins

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You are correct that needing a win in Miami wouldn’t be ideal. But I just want to point out this is the exact position the Bills were in one week prior to the game in New England. The Pats had won 7 in a row including in Buffalo. But then the Pats lost in Indy and home to Buffalo. Miami could very well have the same thing happen to them - loss at Tennessee, loss vs. the Pats. Things change quickly in the NFL. If Miami loses this week are they eliminated from the playoffs? That has the potential to impact week 17.

Edit found it. This confirms my thoughts. Go Raiders. This scenario is plausible. Eliminating Miami would be good heading into week 18 IMO.


The Dolphins will be eliminated in Week 17 if ...
This scenario obviously begins with Tennessee ending the Dolphins' winning streak at seven games.
If that happens, and Las Vegas wins at Indianapolis, New England wins at home against Jacksonville and the L.A. Chargers win at home against Denver, then the Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention.
Bump. This all played out exactly as I had hoped, and now Miami can’t even really spoil anything for the Pats next week.