Patriots Roster Projection Thread

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Took a stab at a roster projection. If others want to post theirs, go right ahead! Had to edit this to include Anfernee Jennings. I forgot about him. Put Jennings on and took Carl Davis off.

QB(3) Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe
--Pretty self explanatory here.

RB(4) Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong
--This bears watching because of Ty Montgomery. If Montgomery's injury isn't season ending, he has to be carried onto the 53 man roster before being put on IR. Otherwise if he's put on IR before cut downs he's automatically out for the year. Look for JJ Taylor to take his spot. Kevin Harris is a good practice squad candidate.

WR(5) DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne
--Similar to Montgomery, Thornton must be carried onto the 53 man roster before being put on IR. Tre Nixon, Lil'Jordan Humphery, and Kristian Wilkerson are candidates to take his place if they make it through waivers. I contemplated carrying Humphery because I think someone could claim him, but ultimately did not.

OL(9) Trent Brown, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Isaiah Wynn, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Kody Russey, Will Sherman
--I gave the last spot to Will Sherman based on his positional versatility and his improved play over the last couple of weeks. James Ferentz has had a bad camp.

TE(2) Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith
--I don't think Devin Asiasi is going to work out here and I needed his roster spot. If he can sneak back onto the practice squad, that would be good in case of injury to the other two.

DL/DE(7)--Davon Goodchaux, Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, LaBryan Ray, Christian Barmore, DaMarcus Mitchell, Anfernee Jennings.
--I kept Ray because he has had a good camp and is the least likely between him and Sam Roberts to make it through waivers in my opinion. Mitchell has shown some pass rush ability and is a really good ST player.

LB(5)--Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Mack Wilson, Raekwon McMillan
--I went with one less guy that I wanted, but think they will not have a ton of LBs on the field at once due to the hybrid LB/S types they will have. Cam McGrone hasn't shown much and I think will make it through waivers.

CB(6) Jalen Mills, Marcus Jones, Jack Jones, Jon Jones, Terrence Mitchell, Shaun Wade
--Wade sneaks onto the roster because they need another taller CB to play outside.

SAF(5)--DMac, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Josh Bledsoe
--A lot of versatility in this group IMO. It will be exciting to see how Steve B and Mayo deploy these guys.

ST(7) Joe Cardona, Nick Folk, Jake Bailey, Matthew Slater, Cody Davis, Brenden Schooler, Justin Bethel
--I love what Schooler brings to ST and couldn't cut him.
 
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Jungleland

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QB(3) Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe

RB(4) Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong

I think JJ makes it if Montgomery's injury is serious. I think JJ might make it either way as I think even if it's a short term injury they may be able to essentially shadow roster the injured Montgomery til he's ready.

WR(6) DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Jakobi Meyers, Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Lil'Jordan Humphrey

-I think the Thornton injury and lack of Asiasi breakout means LJH makes it outright. I'd maybe think differently if Wilkerson were not concussed, as I think they could waive all three of the bubble WRs and be sure at least 1 if not all 3 don't get claimed, but I don't know if they can afford to be as cavalier with LJH or Nixon if Wilkerson isn't going to be ready for week 1. And I think LJH has the upper hand right now - more versatility and better hands in August.

OL(8) Trent Brown, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Mike Onwenu, Isaiah Wynn, Yodny Cajuste, Justin Herron, Will Sherman

-Think this is a place where they throw caution to the wind with the depth guys and see who they can get to the PS.

TE(2) Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith

-Agree Asiasi would be a good practice squad/later elevation piece. With the news Humphrey saw some TE snaps at practice, I think the writing's on the wall here for at least Tuesday.

DL/DE(6)--Davon Goodchaux, Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, LaBryan Ray, Christian Barmore, DaMarcus Mitchell

-Think Ray has to make it with all the glowing reports. Seeing Davis as a cut on a lot of the beat guesses, so I'm going to pick a spot back up here.

LB(6)--Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Mack Wilson, Raekwon McMillan, Jahlani Tavai
-Can't really see Tavai not making it with the Belichick praise. Not sure Jennings doesn't also make it, but leaving him off for now in the absence of another obvious cut candidate.

CB(6) Jalen Mills, Marcus Jones, Jack Jones, Jon Jones, Terrance Mitchell, Myles Bryant
-There is a decent chance Bryant is a week 1 starter, I think he definitely makes it even with the spectre of Isaiah Mckenzie burned into our memories. I think Mitchell probably makes it over Wade, but depending on the health outlook I almost hope he doesn't.

SAF(5)--DMac, Jabrill Peppers, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Josh Bledsoe

ST(7) Joe Cardona, Nick Folk, Jake Bailey, Matthew Slater, Cody Davis, Brenden Schooler, Justin Bethel
-I wonder if Schooler is the guy you cut and resign once Thornton goes to IR, but keeping him for now.

Thoughts on some bubble guys:

-I still like Nixon, but his hands have been iffy these last two games and I think he makes it to the practice squad. I think Wilkerson's injury ensures he's not claimed either. Would not be surprised to see either on the real roster at some point.

-Wade I'd love to keep, but I think they gamble they don't lose him and we see him sometime in September.

-Asiasi would be a reasonable keep, but I don't think they'll lose sleep over it if he's claimed.

-More excited about the long term potential of Harris than JJ, but I think if Montgomery is out for any length of time the latter is pretty much necessary. Didn't love the ball security last night, either.
 

Saints Rest

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It would be great if someone could go over the current NFL rules about waivers. My memory is that guys with less than 4 (?) seasons must go thru waivers, but vets do not. Thus if they cut Schooler this week, any team could sign him, but if they cut Mitchell, then it's up to Mitchell if he wants to sign or not. Is that correct?

I found this article about 2022 rules on IR and PS.

A couple interesting bits I did not know:
  • A player on IR must miss a minimum of 4 games.
  • Teams can bring back up to 8 players over the course of the season. They can even bring back the same guy twice, but he counts twice against the 8.
  • RE: PS elevations. A player can be elevated to the active squad from PS 3 times in one season. (used to be 2).
  • PS can have as many as 16 players total, but only up to 6 vets.
 

j44thor

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Hoyer seems like an obvious Vet cut then resigned to get someone onto IR like Thornton. No one is going to sign Hoyer.
 

brendan f

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would be great if someone could go over the current NFL rules about waivers. My memory is that guys with less than 4 (?) seasons must go thru waivers, but vets do not. Thus if they cut Schooler this week, any team could sign him, but if they cut Mitchell, then it's up to Mitchell if he wants to sign or not. Is that correct?

Yes, the veteran becomes a free agent upon his release. The players with three years or fewer of service time are exposed to waivers.
Here is the rule:
"Once the waiver period starts each year through the trading deadline, a vested veteran — a player who has acquired four years of pension credit — is not subject to the waiver system if the club decides to release him. That means if a team decides to release a vested veteran, the league considers his contract to be terminated immediately and he is free to negotiate and sign with any other club."

If you cut someone with a guaranteed contract (like Hoyer) and then re-sign him, are you now paying him twice, the full guarantee from the first contract, plus something on a new second contract?
Right. That's why it's unlikely they cut Hoyer with his current contract having a decent amount of guaranteed money.
 

brendan f

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Keep in mind this is only the initial 53. Part of that involves keeping players you don’t want to expose to waivers. With that being said, here’s my best guess as to how things shake out:

Edited to include Humphrey, cut D Mitchell

QB (3) Jones, Zappe, Hoyer

Zappe hasn't exactly inspired confidence, but has some chance to develop into a back-up role.

RB (4) D Harris, Stevenson, P Strong, Montgomery

A lot here depends on Montgomery's injury. Could JJ sneak on? Maybe but not sure any other team wants him so could be cut with potential to return. Strong hasn’t looked good but doubtful he gets cut. As of now I see K Harris cut and returning to the PS, but some tough decisions here.

WR (6) Parker, Bourne, Agholor, Myers, Thornton, Humphrey

This looked like a.deep position not long ago, but with Thornton's injury and Nixon's recent fade, now less so. Wilkerson and/or Nixon might be back on PS.

TE (2) Smith, Henry

There's a chance Sokol ends up back on the team after some roster juggling, and there's a small chance he makes the roster outright. He looked good on ST. I’m not sure what to think about Asiasi. He keeps getting nicked up, and it’s hard to validate him earning a spot. Would another team claim him if he were put on waivers? Again, tough to say but they might have to risk it.

OL (8) - Andrews, Wynn, Brown, Onwenu, Strange , Cajuste, Hines, Sherman

Hines was banged up for most of camp so we didn't see much of him, but he could end up being really good. Herron frankly didn't have a great showing and Sherman is able to play both inside and outside on the line. Both Sherman and Hines are capable of backing up the center position, though Russey is more experienced there, so that could be a factor. Between Herron and Russey, at least one should return to the PS.

DT (6): Barmore, Guy, Godchaux, Wise, S Roberts, L Ray

Ray looked too good to cut. Mitchell is a tough cut with potential to return to PS.

LB (7): Judon, Uche, Bentley, McMillan, Wilson, Tavai, Jennings

I didn’t have room for McGrone.

CB (6): Mills, Jon Jones, M Jones, Jack Jones, Bryant, Wade

Wade is talented enough to make the team but with Jack Jones looking so good do they roll with five here? With Wade’s talent, I don’t see them wanting to expose him to waivers so he gets stashed for now.

Safety (5) - McCourty, Dugger, Phillips, Peppers, J Bledsoe

This group looks pretty safe.

ST (6) Slater, Bethel, Folk, Bailey, Cardona, Schooler

I have Cody Davis as a tough cut, but they could end up bringing him back. Schooler looked like a core ST so I don’t see them risking him to waivers but they might.
 
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pjheff

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I’m surprised to see consensus thus far that the Pats will carry three quarterbacks on the active roster. Are we concerned that Zappe will get claimed on his way to the practice squad?
 

Average Game James

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If you cut someone with a guaranteed contract (like Hoyer) and then re-sign him, are you now paying him twice, the full guarantee from the first contract, plus something on a new second contract?
I would assume Hoyer’s contract has offset language so any guaranteed salary from the existing deal offset by the new contract.
 

mcpickl

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I’m surprised to see consensus thus far that the Pats will carry three quarterbacks on the active roster. Are we concerned that Zappe will get claimed on his way to the practice squad?
He probably wouldn't be, just like anyone else we'll be wringing our hands about waiving to get down to 53 won't be, but 4th round picks rarely get waived. I can't remember the last guy the Patriots picked in the first 4 rounds getting waived before their rookie year. It probably is pre-Belichick.

It's also nice to have a QB on a cheap 4 year deal if you think he has any promise at all. That disappears if you waive him to get to the practice squad.
 

mcpickl

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I would assume Hoyer’s contract has offset language so any guaranteed salary from the existing deal offset by the new contract.
It is offset, but the guarantees hit your cap immediately and if Hoyer makes that guarantee up in salary you get credited for it next season. This happened with the Patriots guarantee to Cam Newton last season.

If the Pats were to cut Hoyer, since he's fully guaranteed this year and most of next season, his cap hit would jump from 1.76M for being on the roster, to a 3M dead money cap hit if he's cut.

He'll be on the 53 unless Josh McDaniels wanted to trade for him.
 

brendan f

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I’m surprised to see consensus thus far that the Pats will carry three quarterbacks on the active roster. Are we concerned that Zappe will get claimed on his way to the practice squad?
I think there's some chance he'd get claimed, though it would be far from a certainty. The problem is if you take the risk and lose, you've lost your developmental QB and have to essentially start all over. If he survives and makes it through waivers then you also risk him getting claimed from the PS at some point. That's why I think it's more likely he acts as an inactive on the roster.
 

BaseballJones

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I mean, there aren't many bigger fans of Mac here than me, but isn't Mac their "developmental QB" in a very real way?
 

brendan f

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mean, there aren't many bigger fans of Mac here than me, but isn't Mac their "developmental QB" in a very real way?
Sure. I think these are semantics to a large degree. He's the unquestioned starter who is still developing. He's also pretty clearly a starting caliber QB, so they still need someone to develop behind him. That's all I meant.
 

j44thor

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It is offset, but the guarantees hit your cap immediately and if Hoyer makes that guarantee up in salary you get credited for it next season. This happened with the Patriots guarantee to Cam Newton last season.

If the Pats were to cut Hoyer, since he's fully guaranteed this year and most of next season, his cap hit would jump from 1.76M for being on the roster, to a 3M dead money cap hit if he's cut.

He'll be on the 53 unless Josh McDaniels wanted to trade for him.
Didn't realize Hoyer had a guaranteed contract wonder what the impetus was behind that. His only value is as a coach/mentor at this point.
 

mcpickl

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Didn't realize Hoyer had a guaranteed contract wonder what the impetus was behind that. His only value is as a coach/mentor at this point.
My guess is that McDaniels getting the Vegas job put them in the market for a veteran QB who knows his system. Vegas currently has only Jarrett Stidham and somebody named Chase Garbers behind Derek Carr.

I'd guess McDaniels would've hopped on Hoyer as his #2 QB over Stidham if the Patriots didn't guarantee him so much money to stay.
 

lexrageorge

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I believe teams are still allowed to protect 4 practice squad players each week. So I am expecting Zappe to be one of those, as I'm fairly certain he would clear waivers this week. I'm not as down on him as most here; I thought he was OK for a mid-round pick in his first NFL preseason, and it will be interesting to see what he looks like next training camp. I don't expect him to ever beat out Mac Jones, but it's always good to have an understudy in the wings.

Kudos to Hoyer's agent for landing him the 2 year guarantee. Hoyer's dead cap hit would be minimal next season if cut after March 1st ($1.6M), so I'm expecting this will be his last year on the team.
 

Super Nomario

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I believe teams are still allowed to protect 4 practice squad players each week. So I am expecting Zappe to be one of those, as I'm fairly certain he would clear waivers this week. I'm not as down on him as most here; I thought he was OK for a mid-round pick in his first NFL preseason, and it will be interesting to see what he looks like next training camp. I don't expect him to ever beat out Mac Jones, but it's always good to have an understudy in the wings.

Kudos to Hoyer's agent for landing him the 2 year guarantee. Hoyer's dead cap hit would be minimal next season if cut after March 1st ($1.6M), so I'm expecting this will be his last year on the team.
The Pats have not cut a 4th round rookie before. If Zappe is so little thought of now that he could clear waivers, taking him that early was a major miscalculation. To me he's safe, and it's going to be a 3 QB year.