2023 Pats: Offseason

Reggie's Racquet

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Anyone think there is a chance Josh does us a solid and trades us No. 7 if Richardson or Levis are still on the board for Mac to back up Jimmy G and 14?
 
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Cellar-Door

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The more I dig into Courtland Sutton the more interested I am.

His raw numbers were only okay, but some of the tracking on open rate, win rate vs. man, etc. are really impressive, he looks to have had a lot of plays where he was open and Russ just failed to get him the ball.

Especially when I heard one of the DEN local guys do a radio spot saying he thinks Sutton is going to bring back a day 3 pick. I assume that means 4/5, where the Patriots have 107, 117 and 135. I would move any of those for Sutton, and it would fit with the price we saw on Waller today (#100) for guys with some injury concerns and pretty big (if unguaranteed) contracts.
 

Justthetippett

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Anyone think there is a chance Josh does us a solid and trades us No. 7 if Richardson or Levis are still on the board for Mac to back up Jimmy G and 14?
I don't think it's ridiculous to think Mac +14 is as valuable as #7 if it's Richardson/Levis. Josh might not have the time to develop either of those guys. He could draft an OT at 14 to improve his team (and chances of survival) right away. But if those guys are there, I think he'll get lots of offers. And there's no indication the Pats are interested.
 

Super Nomario

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The more I dig into Courtland Sutton the more interested I am.

His raw numbers were only okay, but some of the tracking on open rate, win rate vs. man, etc. are really impressive, he looks to have had a lot of plays where he was open and Russ just failed to get him the ball.

Especially when I heard one of the DEN local guys do a radio spot saying he thinks Sutton is going to bring back a day 3 pick. I assume that means 4/5, where the Patriots have 107, 117 and 135. I would move any of those for Sutton, and it would fit with the price we saw on Waller today (#100) for guys with some injury concerns and pretty big (if unguaranteed) contracts.
In terms of skill set, Sutton seems pretty similar to Parker. The other issue is he's got $14M in guaranteed salary this year.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I don't think it's ridiculous to think Mac +14 is as valuable as #7 if it's Richardson/Levis. Josh might not have the time to develop either of those guys. He could draft an OT at 14 to improve his team (and chances of survival) right away. But if those guys are there, I think he'll get lots of offers. And there's no indication the Pats are interested.
NM. Thought you were responding to another post.
 

Cellar-Door

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In terms of skill set, Sutton seems pretty similar to Parker. The other issue is he's got $14M in guaranteed salary this year.
Physically they are similar, but Sutton has better agility and he runs much better routes than Parker, he gets open a lot, where Parker doesn't, being more of a jump specialist. Also, Sutton is 2 years younger and his injury issues aren't as recent.

and the salary is why you might be able to get him for a day 3 pick, given how much cap space we have, and that he'd likely be willing to re-structure given he has no guarantees after this year, I wouldn't be that concerned.
 

j44thor

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Sutton was great in 2019 but seems like he lost some athleticism after his 2020 injury. He went from a 4.9 YAC in 2019 to 2.3 every year since.
Compare that to Jeudy who has averaged over 5 YAC for his career including a career best 5.9 this past season and I just don't see a lot of juice left in Sutton's game.
I get Kenny Golladay vibes from Sutton, think he'll hit the cliff at an early age as it seems unlikely he will get back his 2019 athleticism at this point. He is serviceable but probably a step down from Jakobi who they could have had for a similar contract and no compensation.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sutton was great in 2019 but seems like he lost some athleticism after his 2020 injury. He went from a 4.9 YAC in 2019 to 2.3 every year since.
Compare that to Jeudy who has averaged over 5 YAC for his career including a career best 5.9 this past season and I just don't see a lot of juice left in Sutton's game.
I get Kenny Golladay vibes from Sutton, think he'll hit the cliff at an early age as it seems unlikely he will get back his 2019 athleticism at this point. He is serviceable but probably a step down from Jakobi who they could have had for a similar contract and no compensation.
He’s also never been a big TD guy despite having great size. I’d rather just keep Parker than give up assets for Sutton.
 

SMU_Sox

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By letting Meyers go I think that signals they are looking to trade for talent. Sutton, D-Hop, or Jeudy. Or maybe even a better OT. You’d have to think they are looking at FS and outside corner as well. I like the re-signings and Calvin Anderson gives them much needed depth at OT. I can’t see them going into this year with Parker (FA next year), Thornton (disappointing rookie year), and Bourne (doesn’t run slot routes well enough) as their guys with Henry. That’s not enough talent. They need a slot receiver. I don’t think they target Hunter Renfrow because of his ball security issues but maybe I’m wrong. Maybe they reconnect with Berrios? You’d imagine a significant move is coming before the draft.
 

bsj

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By letting Meyers go I think that signals they are looking to trade for talent. Sutton, D-Hop, or Jeudy. Or maybe even a better OT. You’d have to think they are looking at FS and outside corner as well. I like the re-signings and Calvin Anderson gives them much needed depth at OT. I can’t see them going into this year with Parker (FA next year), Thornton (disappointing rookie year), and Bourne (doesn’t run slot routes well enough) as their guys with Henry. That’s not enough talent. They need a slot receiver. I don’t think they target Hunter Renfrow because of his ball security issues but maybe I’m wrong. Maybe they reconnect with Berrios? You’d imagine a significant move is coming before the draft.
Dont you lose a lot of leverage in trading for a WR by waiting until after Meyers is signed to pull the trigger?
 

JM3

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Dont you lose a lot of leverage in trading for a WR by waiting until after Meyers is signed to pull the trigger?
No.

A team will trade a player for the highest offer they can get, or keep the player if no offer is good enough, regardless of another team's circumstances.

The price for, for example, DHop doesn't go up because Meyers signed with the Raiders. Who knows, maybe it goes down because the Raiders might have been interested before? Regardless, he'll go to whoever the highest bidder is, unless the highest bid is too low & the Cards will just keep him.

BB has an internal evaluation of how much any given player is worth to them & I don't think he's about to get desperate for a short term fix to the point of overpaying in a trade at this point in his career. He appears to be waiting out the market after regretting that previous foray into d1 free agency.
 

rodderick

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No.

A team will trade a player for the highest offer they can get, or keep the player if no offer is good enough, regardless of another team's circumstances.

The price for, for example, DHop doesn't go up because Meyers signed with the Raiders. Who knows, maybe it goes down because the Raiders might have been interested before? Regardless, he'll go to whoever the highest bidder is, unless the highest bid is too low & the Cards will just keep him.

BB has an internal evaluation of how much any given player is worth to them & I don't think he's about to get desperate for a short term fix to the point of overpaying in a trade at this point in his career. He appears to be waiting out the market after regretting that previous foray into d1 free agency.
Why is this such common sense in NE nowadays? Wasn't said foray directly responsible for turning the roster around so they made the playoffs with a rookie QB immediately in the same year? Sure, Jonnu sucked and Agholor didn't really live up to his contract, but Judon is your best player, Hunter Henry has lived up to expectations, Kendrick Bourne was really good with an actual OC, Mills has been a starter when healthy, so has Trent Brown and Devon Godchaux, I'd argue those guys compose a large part of the talent base of the team. It's not like all of them broke the bank, they spent a lot because they gave moderate money to a high amount of players. And it worked fine.
 

JM3

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Why is this such common sense in NE nowadays? Wasn't said foray directly responsible for turning the roster around so they made the playoffs with a rookie QB immediately in the same year? Sure, Jonnu sucked and Agholor didn't really live up to his contract, but Judon is your best player, Hunter Henry has lived up to expectations, Kendrick Bourne was really good with an actual OC, Mills has been a starter when healthy, so has Trent Brown and Devon Godchaux, I'd argue those guys compose a large part of the talent base of the team. It's not like all of them broke the bank, they spent a lot because they gave moderate money to a high amount of players. And it worked fine.
Free agent spending sprees lead to a boom & bust cycle. The contracts become very backloaded in terms of the cap, meaning you're getting a bargain the first year & if you're loading up on those guys, you should have a very talented team... for 1 year... & then the bill comes due. Yes, you can delay the bill the way the Rams/Saints have done over the years, but it always comes due eventually, & with interest.

When the "boom" part of the cycle is a 1st round playoff exit, you're probably doing it wrong.

The Dolphins are doing it this year on a grander scale. Just about every one of their high-priced guys are going to cost a ton more next year (like $80m more for 6 guys iirc), so this year is probably the best part of their window for a while. They can keep it open for a couple more years after, but then it will catch up with them, just like it did with the Saints & Rams. If they end up like the Rams & get a title, it's a win. If they don't make it past the first round before their bust cycle starts, it's a big L.

Identifying players you think will fit into your system & paying them market rate is totally fine... if the market rate is reasonable. But paying big money for mid players when they aren't the piece that will put you over the top on an all-in year, is not going to be a good long term play.
 

tims4wins

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Free agent spending sprees lead to a boom & bust cycle. The contracts become very backloaded in terms of the cap, meaning you're getting a bargain the first year & if you're loading up on those guys, you should have a very talented team... for 1 year... & then the bill comes due. Yes, you can delay the bill the way the Rams/Saints have done over the years, but it always comes due eventually, & with interest.

When the "boom" part of the cycle is a 1st round playoff exit, you're probably doing it wrong.

The Dolphins are doing it this year on a grander scale. Just about every one of their high-priced guys are going to cost a ton more next year (like $80m more for 6 guys iirc), so this year is probably the best part of their window for a while. They can keep it open for a couple more years after, but then it will catch up with them, just like it did with the Saints & Rams. If they end up like the Rams & get a title, it's a win. If they don't make it past the first round before their bust cycle starts, it's a big L.

Identifying players you think will fit into your system & paying them market rate is totally fine... if the market rate is reasonable. But paying big money for mid players when they aren't the piece that will put you over the top on an all-in year, is not going to be a good long term play.
This is so well-said. It should serve as the OP of the free agent thread every season.
 

Shelterdog

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Why is this such common sense in NE nowadays? Wasn't said foray directly responsible for turning the roster around so they made the playoffs with a rookie QB immediately in the same year? Sure, Jonnu sucked and Agholor didn't really live up to his contract, but Judon is your best player, Hunter Henry has lived up to expectations, Kendrick Bourne was really good with an actual OC, Mills has been a starter when healthy, so has Trent Brown and Devon Godchaux, I'd argue those guys compose a large part of the talent base of the team. It's not like all of them broke the bank, they spent a lot because they gave moderate money to a high amount of players. And it worked fine.
I think the answer is a fairly obvious one--most fans, talk radio, etc focus on offensive skill position players and Smith was a huge bust, Agholor a pretty big bust, and Henry hasn't overperformed his contract.
 

rodderick

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Free agent spending sprees lead to a boom & bust cycle. The contracts become very backloaded in terms of the cap, meaning you're getting a bargain the first year & if you're loading up on those guys, you should have a very talented team... for 1 year... & then the bill comes due. Yes, you can delay the bill the way the Rams/Saints have done over the years, but it always comes due eventually, & with interest.

When the "boom" part of the cycle is a 1st round playoff exit, you're probably doing it wrong.

The Dolphins are doing it this year on a grander scale. Just about every one of their high-priced guys are going to cost a ton more next year (like $80m more for 6 guys iirc), so this year is probably the best part of their window for a while. They can keep it open for a couple more years after, but then it will catch up with them, just like it did with the Saints & Rams. If they end up like the Rams & get a title, it's a win. If they don't make it past the first round before their bust cycle starts, it's a big L.

Identifying players you think will fit into your system & paying them market rate is totally fine... if the market rate is reasonable. But paying big money for mid players when they aren't the piece that will put you over the top on an all-in year, is not going to be a good long term play.
This is the most overblown NFL story by a mile. The Saints and Rams "blew up" because their QBs turned to dust. The Saints were dumb to keep kicking the can down the road after Brees retired instead of having a reset year and doing it all over again with a first round QB, but their roster is still good enough to make the playoffs with provided they get good QB play. Same for the Rams, Matt Stafford got injured and was horrific this year and then went on IR, had he been 2021 Stafford and given no indications that he was breaking down they would have contended at the very least for a playoff spot, their roster wasn't barren, it's going to be barren now because unlike the Saints they understand there's an opportunity to reset and it's a waste to keep that strategy without the QB in place. And for all of the Patriots' spendind spree in 2021 they entered this offseason with the 5th most cap space in 2023, the 2nd most in 2024 and 3rd most in 2025. They are 31st in cash spending in the last 7 years combined. They have every avenue available to them to spend money to inject talent into the team without compromising their future cap structure, just like 2021 didn't make a single dent in their cap and cash flow (and for the most part they got exactly what they paid for).
 

joe dokes

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Ben Volin says its time to panic. Or at least start soaking the torches and sharpening the pitchforks (of course, since it's Volin, much of the rest of the story suggests that maybe there's a method to the madness):
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/03/15/sports/patriots-free-agency-misses/

In the immortal words of judge Elihu Smails: “Well? We’re waiting.”
The theme of this Patriots’ offseason was supposed to be “urgency.” The Krafts told us in a Jan. 9 letter that “no one in our organization is satisfied with the results from this past season,” when the Patriots finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the second time in three years.
Specifically, no one is satisfied with the offense, which ranked 26th in yards and 32nd in the red zone. So they hired a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, and went into the offseason armed with the seventh-most salary-cap space.
The Patriots haven’t made a single consequential addition on offense, unless you count swing tackle Calvin Anderson, signed Tuesday after starting seven games last year for the Broncos. (You shouldn’t.)
Big names are on the move across the NFL: The Dolphins traded for Jalen Ramsey, the Jets appear to be on the verge of landing Aaron Rodgers, the Giants traded for Darren Waller, the Bears got D.J. Moore, and the Broncos beefed up their offensive line with Mike McGlinchey.
 

tims4wins

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This is the most overblown NFL story by a mile. The Saints and Rams "blew up" because their QBs turned to dust. The Saints were dumb to keep kicking the can down the road after Brees retired instead of having a reset year and doing it all over again with a first round QB, but their roster is still good enough to make the playoffs with provided they get good QB play. Same for the Rams, Matt Stafford got injured and was horrific this year and then went on IR, had he been 2021 Stafford and given no indications that he was breaking down they would have contended at the very least for a playoff spot, their roster wasn't barren, it's going to be barren now because unlike the Saints they understand there's an opportunity to reset and it's a waste to keep that strategy without the QB in place. And for all of the Patriots' spendind spree in 2021 they entered this offseason with the 5th most cap space in 2023, the 2nd most in 2024 and 3rd most in 2025. They are 31st in cash spending in the last 7 years combined. They have every avenue available to them to spend money to inject talent into the team without compromising their future cap structure, just like 2021 didn't make a single dent in their cap and cash flow (and for the most part they got exactly what they paid for).
I would argue that the 2021 spending spree hampered their ability to add talent in 2022. And while they do have cap room this year, they're taking a huge hit on Jonnu so it should have been that much more.
 

rodderick

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I would argue that the 2021 spending spree hampered their ability to add talent in 2022. And while they do have cap room this year, they're taking a huge hit on Jonnu so it should have been that much more.
Did it? When there's so much they could have borrowed from future years and still remained as one of the teams with most cap space in 23/24/25? It's fine if they weren't willing to go there, but then you have the coach talking about how little you actually spend even though they're up to the cap every year. I guess I'm just less understanding of this approach when it has been sold to me for years just how much of an advantage in roster construction having a QB on a rookie deal is. The Pats had the reset year in 2020, that's when they pretty much cleared the board and then they added pieces in 2021 that elevated the talent level of the team on average to pretty much the extent they paid for (in my mind). If Robert wasn't willing to give out big deals in 2022 following that, it's perfectly fine, but I don't really get what the excuse should be now to be quite honest. The sky isn't falling, I'm not a Felger & Mazz caller, not trying to be Rod from Quincy here, I know there's ample time and opportunity to make deals, just saying they have room to spend and they should do so.
 

JM3

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This is the most overblown NFL story by a mile. The Saints and Rams "blew up" because their QBs turned to dust. The Saints were dumb to keep kicking the can down the road after Brees retired instead of having a reset year and doing it all over again with a first round QB, but their roster is still good enough to make the playoffs with provided they get good QB play. Same for the Rams, Matt Stafford got injured and was horrific this year and then went on IR, had he been 2021 Stafford and given no indications that he was breaking down they would have contended at the very least for a playoff spot, their roster wasn't barren, it's going to be barren now because unlike the Saints they understand there's an opportunity to reset and it's a waste to keep that strategy without the QB in place. And for all of the Patriots' spendind spree in 2021 they entered this offseason with the 5th most cap space in 2023, the 2nd most in 2024 and 3rd most in 2025. They are 31st in cash spending in the last 7 years combined. They have every avenue available to them to spend money to inject talent into the team without compromising their future cap structure, just like 2021 didn't make a single dent in their cap and cash flow.
Not sure what point you're arguing? I'm not saying going all in is a bad thing. It's literally 1 of 3 ways to build a championship team. & the blow up year is part of the "bust" cycle I mentioned. The Rams were absolutely going to go through it in a year or two regardless - the injuries just shortened the window.

I think it's safe to say, though it would be easier for the Patriots to build a really good team in 2023 if they weren't paying Henry/Smith $28.3m for just Henry's production, right?

& even good signings like Judon/Godchaux aren't exactly discounts at $28.5m this year.

Having cap space is fine, but if you're bereft of talent & spending the money you are spending on players who aren't even there, you are handcuffing yourself. & another spending spree may provide a short term bump, but the Patriots are more than a short term bump away from true contention.

The 3 ways of contending are:

1) Have an elite franchise QB

This one is pretty obvious. If you have that, especially if he's on a below market contract, you are going to be able to contend every year. The better run you are as a franchise, the better you can optimize that. The Patriots & Chiefs are the 2 most recent examples of teams who have done really smart things in these situations.

2) Be better at drafting, developing & coaching than everyone else

This is basically the 49ers model. They just churn out player after player who gets overpaid by their next team & compete despite a mediocre QB situation. They make targeted acquisitions to strengthen their core & trust their process.

3) Go all in

All you really need for this one is a pretty decent jump off point, including a pretty good QB or the ability to acquire one, & the lack of fear at what is on the other side of the cliff. The problem is, you can't bluff your way through an NFL season so you need at least a shot at having the best hand at the end of the year to make that a worthwhile gambit.
 

tims4wins

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Did it? When there's so much they could have borrowed from future years and still remained as one of the teams with most cap space in 23/24/25? It's fine if they're not willing to go there, but then you have the coach talking about how little you actually spend even though they're up to the cap every year. I guees I'm just less understanding of this approach when it has been sold to me for years just how much of an advantage in roster construction having a QB on a rookie deal is. The Pats had the reset year in 2020, that's when they pretty much cleared the board and then they added pieces in 2021 that elevated the talent level of the team on average to pretty much the extent they paid for (in my mind). If Robert wasn't willing to give out big deals in 2022 following that, it's perfectly fine, but I don't really get what the excuse should be now to be quite honest. The sky isn't falling, I'm not a Felger & Mazz caller, not trying to be Rod from Quincy here, I know there's ample time and opportunity to make deals, just saying they have room to spend and they should do so.
Fully agree there is no excuse this year. But they had very little cap room last year IIRC due to how they structured the 2021 deals (e.g., Agholor). Looking for some sources on it now.
 

rodderick

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Not sure what point you're arguing? I'm not saying going all in is a bad thing. It's literally 1 of 3 ways to build a championship team. & the blow up year is part of the "bust" cycle I mentioned. The Rams were absolutely going to go through it in a year or two regardless - the injuries just shortened the window.

I think it's safe to say, though it would be easier for the Patriots to build a really good team in 2023 if they weren't paying Henry/Smith $28.3m for just Henry's production, right?

& even good signings like Judon/Godchaux aren't exactly discounts at $28.5m this year.

Having cap space is fine, but if you're bereft of talent & spending the money you are spending on players who aren't even there, you are handcuffing yourself. & another spending spree may provide a short term bump, but the Patriots are more than a short term bump away from true contention.

The 3 ways of contending are:

1) Have an elite franchise QB

This one is pretty obvious. If you have that, especially if he's on a below market contract, you are going to be able to contend every year. The better run you are as a franchise, the better you can optimize that. The Patriots & Chiefs are the 2 most recent examples of teams who have done really smart things in these situations.

2) Be better at drafting, developing & coaching than everyone else

This is basically the 49ers model. They just churn out player after player who gets overpaid by their next team & compete despite a mediocre QB situation. They make targeted acquisitions to strengthen their core & trust their process.

3) Go all in

All you really need for this one is a pretty decent jump off point, including a pretty good QB or the ability to acquire one, & the lack of fear at what is on the other side of the cliff. The problem is, you can't bluff your way through an NFL season so you need at least a shot at having the best hand at the end of the year to make that a worthwhile gambit.
The point I'm arguing is that the teams you cited didn't go into a boom and bust cycle because of their spending and cap structure, they went from contenders to average/below average due to losing their QB. There's this idea that the Saints and Rams are cautionary tales for that kind of approach and I disagree as to the root cause of their "downfall". The Saints especially have been working the cap the exact same way since 2013 when Loomis arrived there and I'd argue they've had a pretty talented roster since 2017.
 

JM3

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Did it? When there's so much they could have borrowed from future years and still remained as one of the teams with most cap space in 23/24/25? It's fine if they weren't willing to go there, but then you have the coach talking about how little you actually spend even though they're up to the cap every year. I guess I'm just less understanding of this approach when it has been sold to me for years just how much of an advantage in roster construction having a QB on a rookie deal is. The Pats had the reset year in 2020, that's when they pretty much cleared the board and then they added pieces in 2021 that elevated the talent level of the team on average to pretty much the extent they paid for (in my mind). If Robert wasn't willing to give out big deals in 2022 following that, it's perfectly fine, but I don't really get what the excuse should be now to be quite honest. The sky isn't falling, I'm not a Felger & Mazz caller, not trying to be Rod from Quincy here, I know there's ample time and opportunity to make deals, just saying they have room to spend and they should do so.
The problem is that their rookie-contract QB is not good enough.

Mortgaging their future to fit guys in this year & pay them more in later years for the privilege of trying to sneak into the playoffs for a 1st round exit this year is a pretty marginal strategy to me.

They need to find their next QB, & they need to find away to accrue guys who will be part of the core of the next great, or at least really good & fun, Patriots team. If those guys are out there in free agency? Great, but they may be better off trying to find distressed assets rather than shopping at the top of the market to find those future core guys.
 

JM3

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The point I'm arguing is that the teams you cited didn't go into a boom and bust cycle because of their spending and cap structure, they went from contenders to average/below average due to losing their QB. There's this idea that the Saints and Rams are cautionary tales for that kind of approach and I disagree as to the root cause of their "downfall". The Saints especially have been working the cap the exact same way since 2013 when Loomis arrived there and I'd argue they've had a pretty talented roster since 2017.
The Patriots don't have a QB. & the bill always comes due. I never said they shouldn't have done it, though.
 

rodderick

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The problem is that their rookie-contract QB is not good enough.

Mortgaging their future to fit guys in this year & pay them more in later years for the privilege of trying to sneak into the playoffs for a 1st round exit this year is a pretty marginal strategy to me.

They need to find their next QB, & they need to find away to accrue guys who will be part of the core of the next great, or at least really good & fun, Patriots team. If those guys are out there in free agency? Great, but they may be better off trying to find distressed assets rather than shopping at the top of the market to find those future core guys.
I think you have to give Mac the talent around him that makes it so you can definitively state he's not the guy. I never thought much of Tua, but he proved last year that with the right scheme and receivers he can produce at an elite level. If he actually is an elite QB, who knows, but there's value in the information that the guy has that kind of ceiling. If you give Mac the weapons and BOB and he's good, but not really great, awesome, that's valuable information, but if you keep giving him "meh" and get "meh" in return, it's a recipe for mediocrity because the excuses and what ifs will always be there.
 

rodderick

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The Patriots don't have a QB. & the bill always comes due. I never said they shouldn't have done it, though.
And I'm not arguing for them to take the Saints approach, they just have so much room to spend and have spent so little of late that it's kind of mind boggling if they don't try and put together a very strong roster this year. And if they aren't willing to do it because they don't think Mac can take a wagon anywhere, go get Lamar.
 

j44thor

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Some interesting names still out there, I'd like to see them take a shot on DJ Chark to replace Agholor. He is a much bigger target at 6'4" and seems to have rebounded after injury still posting a 4.5 YAC and 16.5 ADOT this past season as DET's deep threat when healthy. He is entering his age 27 season so should have a couple of good years left in him.

Mike Gesicki would be an interesting name to help replace Jakobi's production. He is a TE in name only and really should be considered a big slot WR. He was across the board more athletic at the combine than Jakobi despite being 247 lbs and has 2 700yd seasons before he got banished in McDaniel's system that doesn't utilize TEs. Going into his age 28 season he could also have a couple years of production. I'd like to see them draft a TE but Gesicki would allow them to draft a more traditional TE to replace Henry next season.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
I think you have to give Mac the talent around him that makes it so you can definitively state he's not the guy. I never thought much of Tua, but he proved last year that with the right scheme and receivers he can produce at an elite level. If he actually is an elite QB, who knows, but there's value in the information that the guy has that kind of ceiling. If you give Mac the weapons and BOB and he's good, but not really great, awesome, that's valuable information, but if you keep giving him "meh" and get "meh" in return, it's a recipe for mediocrity because the excuses and what ifs will always be there.
I disagree. Being able to play well in a perfect situation tells you almost nothing. The Dolphins also had the capital in high picks to be able to make receivers like Waddle/Hill a reality.

Who could we possibly get that wouldn't let apologists just make more excuses? DHop? If he fails it's because he's old & slowing down. Sutton? He was only good because he played with other really good receivers & was never that productive anyway, etc.

Mac Jones's best case scenario is to get in a good situation & play competently enough for some team to drastically overpay him to ensure the mediocrity of their franchise.
 

JM3

often quoted
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Dec 14, 2019
14,292
And I'm not arguing for them to take the Saints approach, they just have so much room to spend and have spent so little of late that it's kind of mind boggling if they don't try and put together a very strong roster this year. And if they aren't willing to do it because they don't think Mac can take a wagon anywhere, go get Lamar.
I advocated for them to draft LJax & to trade up & draft Fields. They seem to have a different theory of what their QB should be than I do.
 

rodderick

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Apr 24, 2009
12,751
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
I disagree. Being able to play well in a perfect situation tells you almost nothing. The Dolphins also had the capital in high picks to be able to make receivers like Waddle/Hill a reality.

Who could we possibly get that wouldn't let apologists just make more excuses? DHop? If he fails it's because he's old & slowing down. Sutton? He was only good because he played with other really good receivers & was never that productive anyway, etc.

Mac Jones's best case scenario is to get in a good situation & play competently enough for some team to drastically overpay him to ensure the mediocrity of their franchise.
I agree. Tua didn't just "play well", though, he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A while ranking 2nd in DVOA, 2nd by EPA/Play and 3rd by QBR. He was by all accounts an MVP candidate had he not missed games due to injury. I don't think it's just a given that any okay QB could put up that season on that team, to me that showed me a little something. As to the rest of your post you're 100% right, if people want excuses to be made, there'll be ample opportunity to do so regardless of the circumstances.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
10,961
I agree. Tua didn't just "play well", though, he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A while ranking 2nd in DVOA, 2nd by EPA/Play and 3rd by QBR. He was by all accounts an MVP candidate had he not missed games due to injury. I don't think it's just a given that any okay QB could put up that season on that team, to me that showed me a little something. As to the rest of your post you're 100% right, if people want excuses to be made, there'll be ample opportunity to do so regardless of the circumstances.
Tua was very pedestrian in 21 with a 6.5 AY/A then they added McDaniels and Tyreek and that jumped to 9.2 in 22. Worth noting Tua did have a 1K yd receiver in Waddle in 21 who is light years better than any WR Mac has had since his AL days. If anyone tries to compare Waddle to Jakobi just don't.

I think with a lot of non-uber athletic QBs you have a lot of chicken and egg problem and I'd include Joe Burrow in the convo as I'm not convinced he looks nearly as good without all of Chase, Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Pocket passers distribute the ball, they still need receivers to make plays.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
34,464
This is the most overblown NFL story by a mile. The Saints and Rams "blew up" because their QBs turned to dust. The Saints were dumb to keep kicking the can down the road after Brees retired instead of having a reset year and doing it all over again with a first round QB, but their roster is still good enough to make the playoffs with provided they get good QB play. Same for the Rams, Matt Stafford got injured and was horrific this year and then went on IR, had he been 2021 Stafford and given no indications that he was breaking down they would have contended at the very least for a playoff spot, their roster wasn't barren, it's going to be barren now because unlike the Saints they understand there's an opportunity to reset and it's a waste to keep that strategy without the QB in place.
I'd push back a bit on the Rams... a key reason Stafford played poorly then got hurt is that Andrew Whitworth retired, Austin Corbett left and they had no money or picks to replace them. It was already a shallow group that had incredible injury luck in the SB run. Losing 2 starters and trying to replace them with young and cheap backfired with poor play early....then the injuries hit and they were one of the worst units in the league. The Rams didn't play the balance game as well as the Saints had in the past, their roster had a massive weakness, but they probably thought the ring was worth it.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
24,386
Well, I'd sure like for them to add real talent, but OL depth was a huge problem last year, so........

But are these guys better than what they had? It's impossible for me to tell.
 

rodderick

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Apr 24, 2009
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Belo Horizonte - Brazil
I just realized that Reiff has been part of arguably two of the worst OL groups in football and then let go by those teams two years in a row (2021 Bengals, 2022 Bears). As depth it's fine, but not really a player I want to go into 2023 counting on to start games for this team.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Dec 16, 2010
53,850
Well, I'd sure like for them to add real talent, but OL depth was a huge problem last year, so........

But are these guys better than what they had? It's impossible for me to tell.
Probably better and have an OL coach...
 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
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So, we have a lot of space already, if they're creating more...there has to be a reason right?
Not necessarily. It gives them more flexibility this year if they decide to use it and if they don’t it just rolls into next year and leaves the Pats in basically the same situation they would have been in otherwise.
 

Cellar-Door

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Reiff is just another body, I doubt they see him as any kind of long term solution. Just getting some guys with experience in the building so they can compete for spots in the rotation.
Smart move considering what little is out there. They supposedly were in on Taylor, he took a huge deal with the Chiefs.
Only top guy left is Brown, and given his $ demands and supposedly saying he won't play on the right.... I can't see it.
Might kick the tires on Lewan I guess? Otherwise I'd expect them to look to the draft, possibly trade market. Wait and see what they have in camp and who shakes loose.
 

Devizier

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Why not get the depth pieces early; those are the kind of guys where fit is going to matter a lot so pick 'em up as early as possible. You're going to spend the money either way.