Pats' Defense 2022

BaseballJones

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Starting with the DBs...

Jonathan Jones: 21 targets, 12 completions (57.1%), 199 yds, 9.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85.2 rating
Jack Jones: 24 targets, 11 completions (45.8%), 162 yds, 6.8 yds/target, 0 TD, 2 INT, 33.7 rating
Jalen Mills: 31 targets, 17 completions (54.8%), 249 yds, 8.0 yds/target, 1 TD, 2 INT, 65.1 rating
Myles Bryant: 22 targets, 16 completions (72.7%), 137 yds, 6.2 yds/target, 2 TD, 0 INT, 118.9 rating
Marcus Jones: 5 targets, 1 completion (20.0%), 37 yds, 7.4 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 57.9 rating
Devin McCourty: 8 targets, 6 completions (75.0%), 72 yds, 9.0 yds/target, 2 TD, 0 INT, 141.7 rating
Kyle Dugger: 14 targets, 8 completions (57.1%), 72 yds, 5.1 yds/target, 0 TD, 1 INT, 41.4 rating
Adrian Phillips: 20 targets, 11 completions (55.0%), 115 yds, 5.8 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 88.5 rating
Jabril Peppers: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 36 yds, 4.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 125.0 rating

So the corners, except for Bryant, have been outstanding. Jack Jones is a monster back there already. Playing at an all-pro level in terms of coverage. DMac and Bryant are the real weak spots in coverage right now.

Now the LBs...

Mack Wilson: 11 targets, 6 completions (54.5%), 61 yds, 5.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 100.9 rating
Raekwon McMillan: 9 targets, 6 completions (66.7%), 67 yds, 7.4 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 88.7 rating
Ja'Whaun Bentley: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 87 yds, 10.9 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 112.0 rating
Jahlani Tavai: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 39 yds, 4.9 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 87.0 rating

So the LBs have struggled in pass coverage. Wilson has been fine, but otherwise, QBs are completing a very high percentage against NE's linebackers. That's a problem.

On the whole, here are NE's ranks in terms of pass defense:

- completion %: #6 (58.6%)
- pass yards: #17 (1,313)
- yds/att: #9 (6.7)
- TD %: #20 (4.3%)
- INT %: #9 (2.9)
- pass rating: #9 (81.1)
- sacks: #8 (17)
- def. expected points: #6 (19.47)

So it's not an elite pass defense by any stretch. But it's pretty solid so far. And they've faced: Tua (when Tua was lighting up the league), Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, and Jared Goff (when Det had an elite pass offense up to that point).

So it's not been a bunch of tomato cans they've been going up against. It's not Mahomes, Allen, and Brady, but it's not just a list of scrubs either. The pass defense's numbers are legit.
 

StupendousMan

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(in the previous post, "rating" stands for something like "the rating of the opposing QB when throwing toward this cornerback"; in other words, big number = bad defense)
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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(in the previous post, "rating" stands for something like "the rating of the opposing QB when throwing toward this cornerback"; in other words, big number = bad defense)
Yes, exactly. Sorry I didn't make that clear. It's the opposing QB's passer rating when targeting the receiver this defensive player is assigned to cover. So...QBs are having a great deal of success against Bryant, but very little success against Jack Jones.
 

Shelterdog

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Starting with the DBs...

Jonathan Jones: 21 targets, 12 completions (57.1%), 199 yds, 9.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 1 INT, 85.2 rating
Jack Jones: 24 targets, 11 completions (45.8%), 162 yds, 6.8 yds/target, 0 TD, 2 INT, 33.7 rating
Jalen Mills: 31 targets, 17 completions (54.8%), 249 yds, 8.0 yds/target, 1 TD, 2 INT, 65.1 rating
Myles Bryant: 22 targets, 16 completions (72.7%), 137 yds, 6.2 yds/target, 2 TD, 0 INT, 118.9 rating
Marcus Jones: 5 targets, 1 completion (20.0%), 37 yds, 7.4 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 57.9 rating
Devin McCourty: 8 targets, 6 completions (75.0%), 72 yds, 9.0 yds/target, 2 TD, 0 INT, 141.7 rating
Kyle Dugger: 14 targets, 8 completions (57.1%), 72 yds, 5.1 yds/target, 0 TD, 1 INT, 41.4 rating
Adrian Phillips: 20 targets, 11 completions (55.0%), 115 yds, 5.8 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 88.5 rating
Jabril Peppers: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 36 yds, 4.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 125.0 rating

So the corners, except for Bryant, have been outstanding. Jack Jones is a monster back there already. Playing at an all-pro level in terms of coverage. DMac and Bryant are the real weak spots in coverage right now.

Now the LBs...

Mack Wilson: 11 targets, 6 completions (54.5%), 61 yds, 5.5 yds/target, 1 TD, 0 INT, 100.9 rating
Raekwon McMillan: 9 targets, 6 completions (66.7%), 67 yds, 7.4 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 88.7 rating
Ja'Whaun Bentley: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 87 yds, 10.9 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 112.0 rating
Jahlani Tavai: 8 targets, 7 completions (87.5%), 39 yds, 4.9 yds/target, 0 TD, 0 INT, 87.0 rating

So the LBs have struggled in pass coverage. Wilson has been fine, but otherwise, QBs are completing a very high percentage against NE's linebackers. That's a problem.
Aren't the bad LB numbers like the returning bombers with bullet holes in the wings but not the fuselage? A high probability checkdown to a RB or TE covered by a LB who gives up 7 yards on second or third and long is a pretty good result.
 

BaseballJones

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Aren't the bad LB numbers like the returning bombers with bullet holes in the wings but not the fuselage? A high probability checkdown to a RB or TE covered by a LB who gives up 7 yards on second or third and long is a pretty good result.
Yes, this data doesn't cover every scenario. On 3rd and 20, a CB giving up 16 yards isn't a bad result either.
 

BusRaker

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Aren't the bad LB numbers like the returning bombers with bullet holes in the wings but not the fuselage? A high probability checkdown to a RB or TE covered by a LB who gives up 7 yards on second or third and long is a pretty good result.
Exactly, and if DMac is forced into man coverage and the QB has time to avoid the likely blitz that would result in that situation, the issue is more likely the scheme and unsuccessful blitzing than the coverage. Bryant on the other hand ...
 

tims4wins

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Chandler Jones as well

Darius Butler is probably the one guy who the Pats didn’t keep who stunk with the Pats but was decent after he left.

Tavon Wilson has been the same since he left. Below average player.

Braxton Berrios never really got a shot but is decent.
 

SMU_Sox

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JCJ went to a Staley defense where he is playing more man-match quarters and zone. Gilmore took about half a season to adjust. I wouldn't give up on JCJ yet even if it has looked ugly.
 

BaseballJones

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Yeah I expect Jackson to figure it out and improve. But the real point is…. The Pats have effectively replaced him without too much difficulty, which has been a very pleasant surprise.
 

steveluck7

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JCJ went to a Staley defense where he is playing more man-match quarters and zone. Gilmore took about half a season to adjust. I wouldn't give up on JCJ yet even if it has looked ugly.
I thought I remembered the Patriots switching things up and playing much more man after Gilmores early struggles here
 

JMDurron

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He just got benched yeah?

Who is the last Patriot to leave and have success besides the greatest QB and TE of all time?
Didn’t we have a few TEs leave and still do fairly well? I thought we had at least one go to the Saints and do better than he had in New England. Also Ben Watson seemed equally serviceable elsewhere for a while.

Attempting to verify on mobile has proven challenging, my apologies for not bringing more data to the post.
 

Super Nomario

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Didn’t we have a few TEs leave and still do fairly well? I thought we had at least one go to the Saints and do better than he had in New England. Also Ben Watson seemed equally serviceable elsewhere for a while.

Attempting to verify on mobile has proven challenging, my apologies for not bringing more data to the post.
I think you're thinking of David Thomas. He had his best seasons in NO, but that was just 35 catches for 356 yards at most. I think he's another Jacob Hollister, where a mediocre season with playing time seems like an improvement over not really playing.
 

JMDurron

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I think you're thinking of David Thomas. He had his best seasons in NO, but that was just 35 catches for 356 yards at most. I think he's another Jacob Hollister, where a mediocre season with playing time seems like an improvement over not really playing.
That’s the one. Less impressive than I remembered.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I remember some grumbling in 2017 when AJ Derby got dumped, caught on with Denver, then had a couple of games with 3-5 catches over 6-7 weeks. He then had like 5 total catches over the next 1.5 years, and has been out of the league since.
 

Justthetippett

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Is the defense legit? They have looked elite in a few games this year, but also put up a huge stinker against Chicago. I love the recent momentum.
They can overwhelm bad teams and probably compete against just about everyone. That Chi game was a stink bomb, but a lot came down to third downs. If they had a passable offense I’d give them a better chance against the best teams.
 

BaseballJones

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They can overwhelm bad teams and probably compete against just about everyone. That Chi game was a stink bomb, but a lot came down to third downs. If they had a passable offense I’d give them a better chance against the best teams.
Even the best defenses have stinkers during the course of the season. And it's looking like Justin Fields might....actually...be good?
 

Saints Rest

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The Pats D's Achilles heel has been running QBs for a long time. This year has been particularly notable. To my memory, when they have done well against this teams, it has been when the D-Line rushes with more of a contain philosophy (as opposed to sack philospophy) and when they can dedicate an effective shadow to the QB.

The best shadows on this year's D would be Jonathan Jones and Kyle Dugger -- both have the speed and the open-field tackling chops to make that tactic effective. Dugger didn't dress for the BAL game and was limited for CHI (32% of snaps). JJ has been too valuable as a CB to shift him to the shadow role.

And Judon's strength is getting to the QB, not playing contain.

Fortunately, looking ahead, the Pats will only have to deal with true running threat QBs in 2, maybe 3 games: BUF-1, and ARI, with BUF-2 being a ? pending BUF possibly resting starters in Week 17. (Ironically, the Jets beating the Bills yesterday might prove negative for that outcome.)
 

tims4wins

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Some more stats - passing department:
#1 in completion %, 55.7%
#6 in passing YPA, 6.6 (PHI & DEN, 5.8)
#4 in passing YPG, 188.3 (DAL, 174.5)
T-4 in INT, 11 (BUF & PHI, 13)
#2 in sacks, 36 (DAL, 42)
#2 in passer rating, 74.0 (PHI 69.9)
 

Mystic Merlin

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I guess Steve B. and Mayo aren’t incompetent. Some opportunistic sniping of Steve B. the past few years without commensurate praise when things go well, but, then again, coordinators tend to have thankless jobs in that respect.
 

FL4WL3SS

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I guess Steve B. and Mayo aren’t incompetent. Some opportunistic sniping of Steve B. the past few years without commensurate praise when things go well, but, then again, coordinators tend to have thankless jobs in that respect.
There was a ton of "they have no talent on defense" sentiment as well. They didn't look great when they had some injuries, but they look elite when everyone is healthy.
 

BaseballJones

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The last two games, against not good offenses, the Pats' D has allowed:

vs Ind: 3 points, 121 yards, 8 first downs
vs NY: 3 points, 103 yards, 6 first downs

And they've done it by (a) not generating turnovers (1 vs Ind, 0 vs NY), so they've just had to get STOPS, and (b) not getting much help from the offense (who scored 19 points vs Ind and 3 vs NY, while not putting up many yards either - 203 vs Ind, 297 vs NY), so they've had to get a LOT of stops, in low scoring environments.

That's a lot of pressure on a defense, and they've just absolutely stoned opposing offenses their last two games.

Pro-football-reference's DSRS metric has the Pats' defense ranked #1 in the NFL, for whatever that's worth.

Now we need to keep in mind that last year they had the #2 scoring, #4 yardage defense in the NFL and then got absolutely SMOKED by the Bills in historic fashion. So just because they're playing great now doesn't mean they'll just keep shutting teams down. This Thursday will be a terrific test against a very capable Vikings offense.
 

Van Everyman

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I will be fascinated to see how they fare against Buffalo. If there was one thing last year told us definitely about this team it’s that they weren’t fast enough to keep up with the elite offenses in this league. Despite not making a lot of (ok, any) flashy moves on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, they have a noticeably quicker linebacking corps – largely a factor of addition by subtraction by releasing Hightower and KVN (who last night’s Chargers game reminded me I still kind of miss even if he’s lost a step from his 2016-2018 heyday).

Minnesota should be the first test. while they still struggle against mobile quarterbacks—which almost seems like more of a scheme than personnel thing to me—they seem to do really well against pocket passers like Cousins. Meanwhile guys like Jon and Jack Jones have looked great against the Detroits of the world – they may be able to scheme their way into containing Jefferson but can the LBs can keep Cook in check?

Thursday may tell us a lot. Or possibly nothing. This season has been weird league-wide.
 

chilidawg

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I will be fascinated to see how they fare against Buffalo. If there was one thing last year told us definitely about this team it’s that they weren’t fast enough to keep up with the elite offenses in this league. Despite not making a lot of (ok, any) flashy moves on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, they have a noticeably quicker linebacking corps – largely a factor of addition by subtraction by releasing Hightower and KVN (who last night’s Chargers game reminded me I still kind of miss even if he’s lost a step from his 2016-2018 heyday).

Minnesota should be the first test. while they still struggle against mobile quarterbacks—which almost seems like more of a scheme than personnel thing to me—they seem to do really well against pocket passers like Cousins. Meanwhile guys like Jon and Jack Jones have looked great against the Detroits of the world – they may be able to scheme their way into containing Jefferson but can the LBs can keep Cook in check?

Thursday may tell us a lot. Or possibly nothing. This season has been weird league-wide.
Aren't Ehlinger and Wilson both mobile qbs? I saw a quote from the D yesterday about how the game plan was to keep him in the pocket and be disciplined with the rush lanes.
 

Justthetippett

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Aren't Ehlinger and Wilson both mobile qbs? I saw a quote from the D yesterday about how the game plan was to keep him in the pocket and be disciplined with the rush lanes.
Looked like that was the plan, and then they had Mack Wilson spying on several plays for when he stepped up.
 
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One thing I’ve noticed this season is a serious uptick in good tackling. I am very interested to see how the D looks over the n3xt two games. That should tell us a decent amount.

I still would like them to have drafted Devin Lloyd instead of Strange.
 

Eddie Jurak

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We're going to see over the rest of the season how much load managing Matt Judon is going to pay off.

Through 10 games last year, Judon played 620 snaps (including 69 on ST) and had 9.5 sacks. He had single sacks in games 11, 12, and 13, and then no more for the rest of the season.

Through 10 games this year, Judon has played 478 snaps (including just 8 on ST) and has a career high 13 sacks.
 

Super Nomario

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Aren't Ehlinger and Wilson both mobile qbs? I saw a quote from the D yesterday about how the game plan was to keep him in the pocket and be disciplined with the rush lanes.
The Pats generally mush rush mobile guys and dare them to beat the D passing from the pocket. Against crappy QBs with some mobility, like Ehlinger and Wilson, this is highly effective. Against mobile guys who can also pass effectively from the pocket, like Josh Allen or prime Cam Newton, this is an invitation to get shredded by a QB who has all day to throw.

There's a separate issue too where they've struggled against the run game in general and the run game incorporating designed QB runs in particular the last few years, which has hurt them against special runners like Fields and Jackson.
 

BaseballJones

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Updated coverage numbers from the corners...

Jonathan Jones: 36 targets, 16 comp, 44.4%, 231 yds, 6.4 yds/tgt, 1 td, 2 int, 52.0 rating
Jack Jones: 30 targets, 16 comp, 53.3%, 291 yds, 9.7 yds/tgt, 0 td, 2 int, 59.2 rating
Jalen Mills: 41 targets, 24 comp, 58.5%, 349 yds, 8.5 yds/tgt, 1 td, 2 int, 74.1 rating
Myles Bryant: 34 targets, 22 comp, 64.7%, 196 yds, 5.8 yds/tgt, 2 td, 1 int, 87.4 rating
Devin McCourty: 24 targets, 11 comp, 45.8%, 150 yds, 6.3 yds/tgt, 3 td, 2 int, 71.2 rating
Adrian Phillips: 27 targets, 17 comp, 63.0%, 189 yds, 7.0 yds/tgt, 1 td, 0 int, 96.1 rating
Jabril Peppers: 13 targets, 11 comp, 84.6%, 70 yds, 5.4 yds/tgt, 1 td, 0 int, 114.7 rating
Kyle Dugger: 20 targets, 12 comp, 60.0%, 85 yds, 4.3 yds/tgt, 0 td, 1 int, 49.0 rating
Marcus Jones: 8 targets, 2 comp, 25.0%, 45 yds, 5.6 yds/tgt, 0 td, 0 int, 50.5 rating

Just for reference, here are other top corners in the NFL....

Trevon Diggs: 53 targets, 33 comp, 62.3%, 438 yds, 8.3 yds/tgt, 2 td, 3 int, 77.4 rating
Jalen Ramsey: 57 targets, 39 comp, 68.4%, 383 yds, 6.7 yds/tgt, 3 td, 1 int, 97.3 rating
Darius Slay: 49 targets, 25 comp, 51.0%, 290 yds, 5.9 yds/tgt, 1 td, 3 int, 50.6 rating
Patrick Peterson: 56 targets, 33 comp, 58.9%, 431 yds, 7.7 yds/tgt, 4 td, 3 int, 84.7 rating
James Bradberry: 58 targets, 26 comp, 44.8%, 232 yds, 4.0 yds/tgt, 1 td, 3 int, 40.3 rating

So the Jones brothers have done great this year. Mills has been very good. Evey Bryant has been basically playing a the Ramsey/Peterson level this year. For the safeties, Digger has been excellent in coverage. McCourty has been solid. Phillips and Peppers have struggled. On the whole, the secondary has been very, very good this season.

NE defense: 323 targets, 210 comp, 55.7%, 1883 yds, 6.6 yds/tgt, 12 td, 11 int, 74.0 rating (#2 in the NFL)
 

BaseballJones

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Here were the Jets' "gains" on each of their offensive snaps on Sunday:

Wilson scramble: +6
Carter run: 0
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Robinson run: +1
NYJ Penalty: -5
Wilson scramble: +14
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Carter run: +3
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: +6
NE Penalty: +5
Carter run: +3
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: +34 (the wind made it a badly under thrown pass, and Mims pushed off to get the pass; not a good offensive play by the Jets but it worked)
Carter run: +1
Wilson scramble: +6
Johnson run: -4
NY Penalty: -5
Robinson run: +3
Robinson run: -1
Wilson pass: +13
Wilson pass: +4
Johnson run: +4
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: +8 (then the end of the half)
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Carter run: +3
Wilson pass: -9 - Sack
Robinson run: +2
Wilson run: 0
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Carter run: 0
Wilson pass: +7
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Robinson run: -2
Wilson pass: -9 - Sack
Wilson pass: -8 - Sack
Wilson pass: +1
Johnson run: +7
Robinson run: +5
Robinson run: +2
Wilson pass: +6
Johnson run: -3
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: -7 - Sack
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
Wilson pass: 0 - Inc
NE Penalty: +5
Carter run: +8
Carter run: +1
Wilson pass: -2


So... out of all this:

NYJ gained 26 yards on Wilson scrambles - not designed runs, but breakdowns in their passing game that Wilson somehow turned into positive yards.
NYJ gained 34 yards on a fluke pass that was blown by the wind, and aided by a push-off by their receiver that wasn't called.
NYJ gained 8 yards on a pass at the end of the first half when the Patriots let them have it, just making sure they didn't give up anything stupid.

That's 68 of their 103 total yards were on scrambles, a fluke pass play, and a pass gain that the Pats didn't even care if the Jets got. Aside from that, the Jets gained just 35 yards when they were trying to, and when the Patriots were trying to stop them.

THAT is amazing.
 

joe dokes

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We're going to see over the rest of the season how much load managing Matt Judon is going to pay off.

Through 10 games last year, Judon played 620 snaps (including 69 on ST) and had 9.5 sacks. He had single sacks in games 11, 12, and 13, and then no more for the rest of the season.

Through 10 games this year, Judon has played 478 snaps (including just 8 on ST) and has a career high 13 sacks.
I'm going with your numbers, because the alternative is Volin, who wrote this:
Judon’s 13½ sacks are a career high and lead the NFL by 2½. The Patriots are pacing Judon a bit this year, playing him 47 snaps per game compared with 51.6 last year.


The 470 through 10 checks out. Is the 51.6 the full-season # for last year?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'm going with your numbers, because the alternative is Volin, who wrote this:


The 470 through 10 checks out. Is the 51.6 the full-season # for last year?
I counted Defensive and ST snaps through week 10 in both seasons - I can’t speak to what Volin looked at
 

SMU_Sox

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View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1596180742576705536?s=46&t=7h5VKpUMcibBzxjcqFT3Og


In retrospect the game vs Minnesota reminds me a little of the 2nd Bills game last year for the defense. They actually got pressure but live I didn’t think they did because Allen/Cousins looked so good vs it. They also couldn’t get home and finish those pressures. Vikings had a very good game plan, Cousins and Jefferson played out of their minds, and the Patriots defense made too many mental errors in the secondary.
 

Toe Nash

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Weren't a lot of those pressures on designed rollouts where the Vikings more or less allowed a rusher to chase Cousins? It wasn't like he was evading tons of sacks back there.
 

AB in DC

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The Bills game is really exposing some of the weaknesses I was worried about from the get-go. Jonathan Jones just isn't a #1 CB, and he gave up a TD on a play where just stopping and standing still would have forced a FG attempt. JaWhaun Bentley is much too slow to be an effective "spy". The DL is too thin to be a consistent run stuffing presence. And Devin McCourty is looking really, really old right now.