Pats offense: Ongoing discussion

Bowhemian

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McDaniels said today they knew Trent wouldn’t play the whole game so he started and Onwenu just came in for him. He said Onwenu is going to be part of every game FWIW.
And Onwenu played quite a few snaps as the third tackle, which helped the o-line quite a bit IMO.
 

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I wonder if we will see an offensive game plan against Buffalo similar to what the Pats did to the Colts a few years back (the year without Dante when Jonas Grey ran for 199 against the Colts during the season, and then they ran all over them again in playoffs). Basically run all over them with 6 linemen as the standard set.
 

RedOctober3829

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I wonder if we will see an offensive game plan against Buffalo similar to what the Pats did to the Colts a few years back (the year without Dante when Jonas Grey ran for 199 against the Colts during the season, and then they ran all over them again in playoffs). Basically run all over them with 6 linemen as the standard set.
Well our 6th lineman is pretty good in Onwenu so I can see them doing this.
 

JerBear

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I wonder if we will see an offensive game plan against Buffalo similar to what the Pats did to the Colts a few years back (the year without Dante when Jonas Grey ran for 199 against the Colts during the season, and then they ran all over them again in playoffs). Basically run all over them with 6 linemen as the standard set.
"I don't think it was the same general approach, it was The. Same. Approach." - Dave Deguglielmo

14:55 of Do You Job.

View: https://youtu.be/JdnWmKnUcWg?t=14m55s
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I wonder if we will see an offensive game plan against Buffalo similar to what the Pats did to the Colts a few years back (the year without Dante when Jonas Grey ran for 199 against the Colts during the season, and then they ran all over them again in playoffs). Basically run all over them with 6 linemen as the standard set.
Gray ran for 201 yards that day, due to a scoring change after the game iirc
 

Greekca

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Anyone have any insight into the decision to stick with Karras in the LG role over Onwenu now that Brown seems to have his legs under him? Is there anything that people have noticed they have done with Karras they weren’t doing with Onwenu?

I was very surprised it took so long for them to switch to Karras at LG and Onwenu at RT when Brown went out given we knew it wasn’t going to be a 1 week absence. Those clearly are your top 6 ranked lineman by a good amount. However, been also slightly surprised they haven’t switched back and have relegated Onwenu to sort of a 6th lineman role (did spell Karras for a bit yesterday). A pretty far fall for a guy who PFF was ranking as one of the top lineman in the NFL last year.

Week 1: 100%
Week 2: 100%
Week 3: 100%
Week 4: 56%
Week 5: Out
Week 6: 80%
Week 7: 100%
Week 8: 100%
Week 9: 100%
Week 10: 39%
Week 11: 8%
Week 12: 20%
 
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SMU_Sox

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Same thing I did in the defensive thread. Here are the Patriots PFF grades on offense and ranking. Once again minimum 20% snaps:

QB:
83.9, 6/38, Mac Jones

RB:
85.5, 4/63, Damien Harris
79.1, 11/63, Rhamondre Stevenson

WR:
78.5, 15/109, Kendrick Bourne
73.1, 40/109, Jakobi Meyers
67.3, 64/109, Nelson Agholor

TE:
72.2, 11/48, Hunter Henry
56.1, 40/48, Jonnu Smith

OT:
88.5, 3/88, Michael Onwenu
74.2, 27/88, Isaiah Wynn
74.1, 28/88, Trent Brown
48.4, 85/88, Justin Herron

OG:
87.1, 3/84, Shaq Mason
73.0, 16/84, Ted Karras

OC:
73.8, 8/41, David Andrews
 

Soxy

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Anyone have any insight into the decision to stick with Karras in the LG role over Onwenu now that Brown seems to have his legs under him? Is there anything that people have noticed they have done with Karras they weren’t doing with Onwenu?

I was very surprised it took so long for them to switch to Karras at LG and Onwenu at RT when Brown went out given we knew it wasn’t going to be a 1 week absence. Those clearly are your top 6 ranked lineman by a good amount. However, been also slightly surprised they haven’t switched back and have relegated Onwenu to sort of a 6th lineman role (did spell Karras for a bit yesterday). A pretty far fall for a guy who PFF was ranking as one of the top lineman in the NFL last year.

Week 1: 100%
Week 2: 100%
Week 3: 100%
Week 4: 56%
Week 5: Out
Week 6: 80%
Week 7: 100%
Week 8: 100%
Week 9: 100%
Week 10: 39%
Week 11: 8%
Week 12: 20%
Reading the tea leaves a little bit, I'd say it seems like a combo of:
  • Consistency
  • Physicality/nastiness
  • Leadership
  • Adds another lineman with C experience, which may have added benefits for a rookie QB (identifying pressure, calling protections, etc.)
I don't think Onwenu has necessarily done anything wrong. Seems more like when they put Karras in at G, they just really liked what they saw and wanted to continue building on that. I'm not all that worried about Onwenu.

To me, the question is if he's a tackle or a guard going forward. Everybody thought he'd be a guard coming out of Michigan, but maybe his best spot really is RT.
 

chilidawg

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The receiver grades are interesting. They I mirror what I've seen watching, but I just watch a few games and then highlights. Agholor consistently gets more snaps than Bourne though, so coaches must see something there. Maybe just his speed is valuable as a threat?
 

SMU_Sox

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The receiver grades are interesting. They I mirror what I've seen watching, but I just watch a few games and then highlights. Agholor consistently gets more snaps than Bourne though, so coaches must see something there. Maybe just his speed is valuable as a threat?
Agholor and Harry play the X role while Bourne and Meyers are inside guys. Agholor also runs a lot of deeper clearing routes for the inside guys.
 

SMU_Sox

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Onwenu had some issues at guard with twists and stunts. He has been up and down in pass pro. He had some untimely penalties. Oddly enough he was better at OT than OG this year. He’s still a mauler as a run blocker. I’m not sure what they think his path is next year but I wouldn’t be surprised if he kicked over to OT full time.
 

Saints Rest

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I wonder if we will see an offensive game plan against Buffalo similar to what the Pats did to the Colts a few years back (the year without Dante when Jonas Grey ran for 199 against the Colts during the season, and then they ran all over them again in playoffs). Basically run all over them with 6 linemen as the standard set.
I am giving myself 3 Internet points.
 

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Marciano490

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View: https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1468710729557577735


Interesting from nextgen tracking, Patriots have 2 of the 3 quickest WRs off the line (and a 3rd in the top 30), makes you wonder if that's part of what the Patriots are targeting in WRs, guys who may not have the long speed (Meyers and Bourne both have mediocre 40 times) but have the quick burst.
It’s nice to see these numbers. 40 yard dash speed seemed almost as arbitrary as bench press reps for measuring in game efficacy.
 

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SMU_Sox

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BB has some preferences for some positions with some drills but it isn’t absolute. It’s all qualified with “some” because unless it’s OL in the first three rounds you won’t find a lot of common standards. He does seem to like his outside corners fast if they are playing man (so the second half of the dynasty). He has gone with twitchy slots before with decent abilities but Meyers (granted he was a UDFA) doesn’t have anything to write home about there.
Some notable BB trends:
OL rounds 1-3: all played LT at some point in college. All are + athletes (7+ RAS) although not all were tested.
TE rounds 1-3: all have been 245 or 250+ pounds and all have been athletic (8+ RAS if they tested)
WR Rounds 1-3: All have been athletic including Harry who had an 8+ RAS. Many were not productive in college while Harry was an exception.

DT: Minus Easley they prefer guys who are 305-310-320+ pounds.
LB: rounds 1-3 he likes then 240 pounds plus
 

McBride11

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BB has some preferences for some positions with some drills but it isn’t absolute. It’s all qualified with “some” because unless it’s OL in the first three rounds you won’t find a lot of common standards. He does seem to like his outside corners fast if they are playing man (so the second half of the dynasty). He has gone with twitchy slots before with decent abilities but Meyers (granted he was a UDFA) doesn’t have anything to write home about there.
Some notable BB trends:
OL rounds 1-3: all played LT at some point in college. All are + athletes (7+ RAS) although not all were tested.
TE rounds 1-3: all have been 245 or 250+ pounds and all have been athletic (8+ RAS if they tested)
WR Rounds 1-3: All have been athletic including Harry who had an 8+ RAS. Many were not productive in college while Harry was an exception.

DT: Minus Easley they prefer guys who are 305-310-320+ pounds.
LB: rounds 1-3 he likes then 240 pounds plus
I tried to look up the methodology - but it is restricted to members. Besides it seeming to incorporate each of the combine measures, I cannot gather how they are weighted? Do you have any insight into that? Eg is the benchpress number less valuable and the 3 cone or shuttle more valuable?
 

SMU_Sox

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I tried to look up the methodology - but it is restricted to members. Besides it seeming to incorporate each of the combine measures, I cannot gather how they are weighted? Do you have any insight into that? Eg is the benchpress number less valuable and the 3 cone or shuttle more valuable?
It all depends on position. However bench press is completely worthless as a measure. There are some drills that are helpful but even then you can have guys perform better than their testing. Take Rhamondre Stevenson for example. His 40 time vs his gps time on the field. Stevenson was much faster with live data. Stevenson also had ok agilities but when you watched his tape and saw him effortlessly cut in different directions vs what he tested you’d have to trust the tape. Sometimes guys don’t test as well as they perform. Antonio Brown is another good example of that.
As for where the 3-cone matters? You like to see it like where SN said, in corners and in WRs. And in particular in slot or inside WRs it is more important than for outside guys. But it also isn’t statistically significant there. For most positions it’s like 50-55% tape, 5-10-15% athletic testing and the rest is medical and interviews and intangibles. Basically though tape, medicals, and interviews/intangibles are so much more important than athletic testing especially when you can see that via their tape anyway.
 

SMU_Sox

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Is it his 3-cone or is it that he also showed off terrific ability to change directions on a dime? I remember a BB story when someone... maybe Big Bang Clock was like "Hey Bill you're going to love this guy coming out this year. Fantastic 3-cone" and Bill responded "ok well when there is an L-drill (3-cone) position let me know and we will sign him". I think looking at the 3-cone like that is the tail wagging the dog. However with Edelman being a QB it is possible that Bill couldn't see his COD on tape so it could be useful.
 

ZMart100

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Edelman ran a lot as a college QB, almost 2500 yards on a little over 500 attempts. BB would say they failed on the evaluation of Edelman, however. He should have been higher than a 7th round pick.
 

Super Nomario

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I seem to remember Edelman being drafted based on his 3-cone time.
They have drafted some receivers with great 3-cones, like Edelman, Deion Branch, and Jeremy Ebert, but also taken others who did not have good scores, like N'Keal Harry, Aaron Dobson, and Jeremy Gallon. For receivers they draft in the first 100 picks or so, 40 time tends to be stronger than 3-cone. Some of the later guys have been more 3-cone-based, which also fits with @SMU_Sox 's observation that it's probably more significant for slot type receivers.

I also think it's important to note that that they don't seem to care about Combine metrics once a dude has proven success in the NFL.
 

RedOctober3829

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They have drafted some receivers with great 3-cones, like Edelman, Deion Branch, and Jeremy Ebert, but also taken others who did not have good scores, like N'Keal Harry, Aaron Dobson, and Jeremy Gallon. For receivers they draft in the first 100 picks or so, 40 time tends to be stronger than 3-cone. Some of the later guys have been more 3-cone-based, which also fits with @SMU_Sox 's observation that it's probably more significant for slot type receivers.

I also think it's important to note that that they don't seem to care about Combine metrics once a dude has proven success in the NFL.
I would tend to think that there are different standards for their interest in slot guys vs. guys who play outside the numbers. 3-cone drill times are paramount for inside guys since they have to have elite quickness and burst as they have a ton of option routes that can go any direction. X receivers I would think would have to be evaluated using their straight line speed moreso than lateral quickness.
 

SMU_Sox

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And for X receivers I read that their speed score (weight adjusted) has some correlation to success but the r-squared value is like 0.1. You can look at minimums and thresholds. Like if an outside guy runs a 4.8 he isn’t fast enough most likely for the position. And to @Super Nomario point look at Trent Brown. Guy did not test well but he has proven he could have success as an OL so BB didn’t care. Can he run the stuff they run at the NFL level? Yes so that’s all that matters.
 

RedOctober3829

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And for X receivers I read that their speed score (weight adjusted) has some correlation to success but the r-squared value is like 0.1. You can look at minimums and thresholds. Like if an outside guy runs a 4.8 he isn’t fast enough most likely for the position. And to @Super Nomario point look at Trent Brown. Guy did not test well but he has proven he could have success as an OL so BB didn’t care. Can he run the stuff they run at the NFL level? Yes so that’s all that matters.
Offensive linemen I think you have to look at the tape just as much or more than test results. Of course, if he's nowhere close in the bench press or is extremely slow it doesn't bode well. Scar was on with Phil Perry's Next Pats podcast this week and he said the Patriots look for 3 things in a lineman. 1. Toughness 2. Smart 3. Athletic enough.
 

SMU_Sox

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Yep - and that is an old quote too - meaning like he’s said it in the past and when we scout OL on the slack that’s what we look for. Typically that means (for rounds 1-3) a 7+ RAS and that they played LT in college. I was wondering why the LT thing was even a thing… I think the simplest explanation is that often your best OL plays LT. It’s one of the harder positions on the line and it takes toughness and enough athleticism to make it work. Some guys are maulers. Some guys are tacticians. Play styles have varied but those those three traits have been consistent for all the guys they’ve drafted as well as LT experience for the first 3 rounds. And quick note: once you get passed round 3 there are no RAS standards or LT requirements. He’s just as likely to take a guy who doesn’t test well with good tape vs someone who tests well and may or may not have good tape.
For running backs this isn’t an athletic test but check out their pass pro and ball handling. Bill loves guys who can pass protect and usually prefers guys who don’t fumble but there are some exceptions to that.
Another resource for this stuff for the draft is Daniel Jeremiah had the system BB created for positional desires from the Browns and a lot of that hasn’t changed. Others have linked it before but here it is again for reference: View: https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1245062206296690688?s=21
 

RedOctober3829

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Yep, Phil also had DJ on I believe last week and they went through the scouting notes again. It basically described to a T why they drafted Mac Jones. For the OL, they are confident enough in their program that they can coach an OL up if he's intelligent and athletic enough. Case in point is Stephen Neal. They like lineman with LT experience because that mean he's athletically gifted and has good size.

You know what's crazy about how good this OL has been run blocking as of late? Scar points out that they aren't even that big of an OL across the board. Trent Brown skews the average weight. Wynn, Karras, Andrews, and Mason are all average to below average size. It speaks to how technically sound and how they are simply a bunch of maulers.
 

ZMart100

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There aren't many lefty QBs, but I'd be suspicious of any college player who doesn't have the trust of their college coaching staff to protect the blindside. I'd guess blindside is more important than LT. Obviously there could be exceptions where a good player is on the same line with a top tackle prospect, but that would be pretty rare.

Smaller OLs can definitely have a lot of success running the ball. The Broncos in the Shanahan era habitually had lines without a player over 300 lbs and they were fantastic running the ball. Some of that was probably the zone blocking where quickness is very important, but the Pats assignment scheme is using a lot of pulling and traps and other movement that benefits from quickness inside as well.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yep - and that is an old quote too - meaning like he’s said it in the past and when we scout OL on the slack that’s what we look for. Typically that means (for rounds 1-3) a 7+ RAS and that they played LT in college. I was wondering why the LT thing was even a thing… I think the simplest explanation is that often your best OL plays LT. It’s one of the harder positions on the line and it takes toughness and enough athleticism to make it work. Some guys are maulers. Some guys are tacticians. Play styles have varied but those those three traits have been consistent for all the guys they’ve drafted as well as LT experience for the first 3 rounds. And quick note: once you get passed round 3 there are no RAS standards or LT requirements. He’s just as likely to take a guy who doesn’t test well with good tape vs someone who tests well and may or may not have good tape.
For running backs this isn’t an athletic test but check out their pass pro and ball handling. Bill loves guys who can pass protect and usually prefers guys who don’t fumble but there are some exceptions to that.
Another resource for this stuff for the draft is Daniel Jeremiah had the system BB created for positional desires from the Browns and a lot of that hasn’t changed. Others have linked it before but here it is again for reference: View: https://twitter.com/movethesticks/status/1245062206296690688?s=21
I think that they look at LT for the same reasons that baseball teams draft CF and SS. They're usually the best players on their team (or position group at least), and these are the hardest positions to play. Sure, they might love guy X who plays RG at school, but some other guy that manages to be a stud LT even with shorter arms than usual (or some other perceived handicap) really stands out to them. And like their baseball counterparts who already see their draftee sliding to 2B or LF in pro ball, the Pats might already have their LT guy pegged as a guard.
 

Super Nomario

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I think that they look at LT for the same reasons that baseball teams draft CF and SS. They're usually the best players on their team (or position group at least), and these are the hardest positions to play. Sure, they might love guy X who plays RG at school, but some other guy that manages to be a stud LT even with shorter arms than usual (or some other perceived handicap) really stands out to them. And like their baseball counterparts who already see their draftee sliding to 2B or LF in pro ball, the Pats might already have their LT guy pegged as a guard.
And like with CF and SS, you have multiple paths to success with LT even if they don't stick there. If you draft a SS and he doesn't have a great arm, fine, move him to 2B. Or maybe his bat's weak and he's just a utility guy. Or maybe he bulks up and moves to third. But if he's already father along the defensive spectrum, you have fewer options. A 1B or corner OF who can't hit is just going to bust. Similarly, if you draft a college LT and he's not up to snuff, maybe he can move inside, or to RT, or play a swing tackle role. But if you draft a RG and he struggles, he's not going to have any value to you. And sometimes guys who were projected to move inside or to RT just might surprise you and stick at LT.
 

mwonow

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And like with CF and SS, you have multiple paths to success with LT even if they don't stick there. If you draft a SS and he doesn't have a great arm, fine, move him to 2B. Or maybe his bat's weak and he's just a utility guy. Or maybe he bulks up and moves to third. But if he's already father along the defensive spectrum, you have fewer options. A 1B or corner OF who can't hit is just going to bust. Similarly, if you draft a college LT and he's not up to snuff, maybe he can move inside, or to RT, or play a swing tackle role. But if you draft a RG and he struggles, he's not going to have any value to you. And sometimes guys who were projected to move inside or to RT just might surprise you and stick at LT.
Heck, wasn't Isaiah Wynn projected as a guard, due to short arms?
 

SMU_Sox

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Heck, wasn't Isaiah Wynn projected as a guard, due to short arms?
Depends who you asked. Wynn has 33.38” arms IIRC. 33” are most teams cutoffs unless a guy is special for OT. You find guys who start and are under 33” but last year it was like 1 or 2 of 64 starting tackles and neither were any good. Rashawn Slater has 33” inch arms and he was my OT1 going into the draft last year although I thought depending on who took him he might be kicked into guard (but not on an outside zone team). Some people think 34” are required but that’s a load of garbage.

It matters because being able to use your reach matters and there is a point where even if you’re great having short arms will inevitably be an obstacle. If an OT does have short arms it helps if they are athletic as their mirroring and movement skills can help them overcome pure length disadvantages.

Dan Hatman liked Wynn as a tackle and so did plenty of other draft folks during the pre-draft process.
Brandon Thorne’s cutoff is 33 inches too but that might just be for LT as he liked some shorter armed guys like Brady Christensen as interior offensive linemen or RTs.
Duke Manyweather will poke fun of arm length requirements and rightfully so but I haven’t seen him pound the table for a guy to start at OT with shorter than 33” arms as far as I have seen. If someone has an example otherwise it would be nice to see it - I could have just missed it.

I think the SS and CF analogy makes a ton of sense. Thanks for that.

As for Wynn - he had a bad start to the season but he’s been good since after the Dallas game.
 

Super Nomario

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Depends who you asked. Wynn has 33.38” arms IIRC. 33” are most teams cutoffs unless a guy is special for OT. You find guys who start and are under 33” but last year it was like 1 or 2 of 64 starting tackles and neither were any good. Rashawn Slater has 33” inch arms and he was my OT1 going into the draft last year although I thought depending on who took him he might be kicked into guard (but not on an outside zone team). Some people think 34” are required but that’s a load of garbage.

It matters because being able to use your reach matters and there is a point where even if you’re great having short arms will inevitably be an obstacle. If an OT does have short arms it helps if they are athletic as their mirroring and movement skills can help them overcome pure length disadvantages.

Dan Hatman liked Wynn as a tackle and so did plenty of other draft folks during the pre-draft process.
Brandon Thorne’s cutoff is 33 inches too but that might just be for LT as he liked some shorter armed guys like Brady Christensen as interior offensive linemen or RTs.
Duke Manyweather will poke fun of arm length requirements and rightfully so but I haven’t seen him pound the table for a guy to start at OT with shorter than 33” arms as far as I have seen. If someone has an example otherwise it would be nice to see it - I could have just missed it.
Ethan Young looked at this a few years back and found no correlation between arm length (or height) and success at tackle (as measured by a variant of Adjusted Value he cooked up). I imagine if some guy has 29" arms or something, it matters, but if I were a team, I would be testing the limits here. If a guy like Joe Thuney with great feet and a year of really good performance as a college tackle has 32.25" arms and I need a tackle, I don't care, I would try it. There are so many other factors - feet, positioning, leverage, punch timing, etc., I would bet that it can be overcome. I looked at tackle values a few years ago for ITP, a common thread was undersized / shorter / shorter arm guys.

The funny thing is that the Patriots have had success with a wide variety of body types, particularly at tackle. Wynn is very undersized, Light was also undersized. Nate Solder was super tall and a little skinny coming out, Vollmer too, but both those guys tested amazing. Cannon was a big heavy guy with long arms who tested OK; Onwenu didn't test much but is in the same mold probably. Trent Brown is a monster who didn't test very well. Cam Fleming tested poorly but had good weight and strength. They've gone with a bunch of different body types and athletic profiles.
 

SMU_Sox

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I don’t think there is a correlation but when you analyzed it what was the sample size of guys with under 33” arms? I would imagine it wasn’t many. Arm length is just one factor. You can have 40” arms and still suck. I don’t think it alone like any one factor would correlate to success. I don’t think there is a single position where one trait can predict anything. I would imagine though there are thresholds for success. Do you still have your data by chance?
 

SMU_Sox

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By the way the main guy people were arguing about for OT vs OG this year with short arms was Liam Eichenberg*. I thought his lack of length showed up on tape. If longer faster edge guys are getting into your chest first and/or you don't have the length to redirect a speed rush it's an issue. It isn't just length that impact this of course. Eich had basically one move in his repertoire, the 2-hand punch. You cant win win just one move. Another OT/OG discussion was Brady Christensen who was such a good hand fighter and tactician that he would have success neutralizing length for example. To me I think arm length is kind of like arm strength. There is a minimum threshold and it is a tool. If a guy has a howitzer but doesn't know how to play QB it doesn't matter that he has a strong arm. If an OT has other issues it doesn't matter if he has trees for arms. However, if a QB has a howitzer AND is otherwise a good QB, think Herbert, that arm strength now becomes a huge asset. The same thing for arm length. Arm length also reduces your margin of error and can give you an advantage attacking edges. It is however just one part of playing OT.

I would like to see what the cutoff is too. Can a 32.5" guy handle it? What about a 31" guy? I would ask though how many guys had the opportunity and worked out at OT with sub 33" arms. My guess is that's a very short list and one of the reasons for that is they probably didn't get the opportunity. And I know guys like Scar and Manyweather say it doesn't matter but I think that's going too far - plus you have guys like Thorne say it doesn't matter and then he will say that his cutoff is 33". It doesn't matter as the be-all end-all trait but it might matter as a threshold. As for the two guys discussed above Eich and Christensen have not done well at OT. Eich has been kicked inside. That's one of the things we talked about going into this year was how the short armed guys would do. I define short armed OT as UNDER 33". So far none of those guys have done well when they got reps at OT.

*Slater was also argued but I thought that was completely asinine given that he had 33" arms and kicked ass an OT. And not to toot my own horn but my ideal fit for him was OT on an outside zone team. He is an OT on an outside zone team and probably should get some consideration for offensive rookie of the year.
 

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Hunter Henry has obviously emerged as the Patriots key red zone passing target. He leads the team with 9 TD receptions, the longest of which was 20 yards - so all red zone. Catch yards on his TDs: 1, 3, 3, 7, 7, 11, 12, 13, 20.

We saw the good and the bad of this against the Colts: Henry caught 2 TDs (7 and 12 yards), but Mac was intercepted trying to force one in to him.

Knowing all of the defensive attention Henry will draw in the red zone, what can the Pats do in their scheme to use that to get other guys open?
 

tims4wins

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Hunter Henry has obviously emerged as the Patriots key red zone passing target. He leads the team with 9 TD receptions, the longest of which was 20 yards - so all red zone. Catch yards on his TDs: 1, 3, 3, 7, 7, 11, 12, 13, 20.

We saw the good and the bad of this against the Colts: Henry caught 2 TDs (7 and 12 yards), but Mac was intercepted trying to force one in to him.

Knowing all of the defensive attention Henry will draw in the red zone, what can the Pats do in their scheme to use that to get other guys open?
Feels like they maybe need to try playing Harry a little more, perhaps at the expense of Meyers. Meyers just can’t seem to get open in the red zone. Maybe Harry’s physicality would play better.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Feels like they maybe need to try playing Harry a little more, perhaps at the expense of Meyers. Meyers just can’t seem to get open in the red zone. Maybe Harry’s physicality would play better.
Meyers "just can't seem to get open in the red zone" seems at odds with his 2 2-point conversions this year (and one last year for that matter).

Anyway, my question was whether they can use Henry to open up other guys.
 

tims4wins

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Meyers "just can't seem to get open in the red zone" seems at odds with his 2 2-point conversions this year (and one last year for that matter).

Anyway, my question was whether they can use Henry to open up other guys.
Meyers converted a couple two point conversions doesn't really square with how many snaps they have run in the red zone and how few TDs he has. The Pats are a bottom 5-8 team in the red zone. Meyers has one TD, and he didn't catch that pass in the end zone. Maybe they should use those two point plays more often or something, I don't know. But the guy is rarely targeted in the end zone and never scores.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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Feels like they maybe need to try playing Harry a little more, perhaps at the expense of Meyers. Meyers just can’t seem to get open in the red zone. Maybe Harry’s physicality would play better.
IIRC one of Harry's strengths coming out of college was his ability to high point the ball and win contested catches with that physicality. I thought he would've been the perfect guy for red zone targets (especially now as a complement to HH) but that skill set has not translated to the pro game. I keep waiting for him to develop into a strong possession receiver but its just not happening.
 

SMU_Sox

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What are they going to do about Jonnu? His playing time has gone down. He’s played 21 and 17 snaps the last 2 weeks. Some of that is his role. He plays more as a blocker than anything else so when they have to pass he doesn’t see the field. The issue is he sucks as a blocker. The Pats use him against edges and have left him on islands vs guys like Cam Jordan and, last week, Jerry Hughes. Jerry Hughes is a fine player. He plays roughly 50% of snaps for the Bills and is a 10 or 11 year veteran. Jerry Hughes put Jonnu on skates on that flea flicker. Blew him up. He has struggled to hold up to edges all year. He seems like a guy who you can scheme up a tight end screen for but he lacks skill as a route runner. It’s no surprise that Henry gets the reps in 11 when they are looking to pass. It could be adjusting to life as a more traditional in-line guy and needing to add some weight to play here but he’s not a huge guy at 6’3” 248 so how much can he put on his frame? It’s possible the Pats paid out the nose for two tight ends and still don’t have a good solution for in-line blocking.
If they want to run they are better off using 21 personnel because Jakob is much better as a blocker. That’s why they started using more of that 4-5 games in. If they want to pass Henry, Meyers, Agholor, and Bourne are all better options and his pass blocking isn’t all that good anyway.
At some point I’d like to see if Asiasi can handle the blocking better. He’s the same height as Jonnu but plays about 10 pounds heavier. He’s been buried all year though and after one year with him they signed both these guys so that might tell me all I need to know about their faith in him. Regardless of Asiasi though the future looks grim for Jonnu. Maybe it’s a combination of missing camp, perhaps not being fully healthy, being on a new team, and the Patriots gambling he could be even better/misevaluated him that has impacted him year 1. Or maybe it’s mostly they misevaluated him, he kind of sucks, and he’s going to eat a lot of cap space until 2023 when he’s easier to cut. What say you SOSH?

Quick edit: with 21 I think he is the tight end but not always. But 21 means at least one of Henry and Jonnu are off the field for a budget guy in Jakob.
 
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SMU_Sox

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Continuing on Jonnu Josh McDaniels said

“The tight end position, obviously here and everywhere, is unique because you’re involved in so many different things — run-blocking, pass receiving, pass protection, alerts, motion,” McDaniels told reporters, as transcribed by ESPN. “There’s a lot of different things you have to do well. Jonnu’s tried really hard to do all the things we’ve asked him to do. I always think the first year that we have an opportunity to have a free agent in our system is kind of a foundational year.”

“They might have heard NFL vernacular and been around NFL football, but sitting in Bill’s squad meetings, listening to what we do on a weekly basis, fitting into how we change the offense from one week to the next to try to attack the defense’s weaknesses or protect our weaknesses; I don’t know how much of those things happen at other places. … But no question he adds an element of unique ability and he’s been a good addition, a great teammate.”
That part about adjusting to roles, terminology, and week to week game plans is either boilerplate or maybe Jonnu is struggling to adjust to life in their building/with their system.
 

DourDoerr

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What are they going to do about Jonnu? His playing time has gone down. He’s played 21 and 17 snaps the last 2 weeks. Some of that is his role. He plays more as a blocker than anything else so when they have to pass he doesn’t see the field. The issue is he sucks as a blocker. The Pats use him against edges and have left him on islands vs guys like Cam Jordan and, last week, Jerry Hughes. Jerry Hughes is a fine player. He plays roughly 50% of snaps for the Bills and is a 10 or 11 year veteran. Jerry Hughes put Jonnu on skates on that flea flicker. Blew him up. He has struggled to hold up to edges all year. He seems like a guy who you can scheme up a tight end screen for but he lacks skill as a route runner. It’s no surprise that Henry gets the reps in 11 when they are looking to pass. It could be adjusting to life as a more traditional in-line guy and needing to add some weight to play here but he’s not a huge guy at 6’3” 248 so how much can he put on his frame? It’s possible the Pats paid out the nose for two tight ends and still don’t have a good solution for in-line blocking.
If they want to run they are better off using 21 personnel because Jakob is much better as a blocker. That’s why they started using more of that 4-5 games in. If they want to pass Henry, Meyers, Agholor, and Bourne are all better options and his pass blocking isn’t all that good anyway.
At some point I’d like to see if Asiasi can handle the blocking better. He’s the same height as Jonnu but plays about 10 pounds heavier. He’s been buried all year though and after one year with him they signed both these guys so that might tell me all I need to know about their faith in him. Regardless of Asiasi though the future looks grim for Jonnu. Maybe it’s a combination of missing camp, perhaps not being fully healthy, being on a new team, and the Patriots gambling he could be even better/misevaluated him that has impacted him year 1. Or maybe it’s mostly they misevaluated him, he kind of sucks, and he’s going to eat a lot of cap space until 2023 when he’s easier to cut. What say you SOSH?

Quick edit: with 21 I think he is the tight end but not always. But 21 means at least one of Henry and Jonnu are off the field for a budget guy in Jakob.
Jonnu's football IQ seems really low. He had a killer penalty the last game and he seems good for that at least every other game. On one of Harris' TD runs in the last game, Jonnu was in front blocking a CB or safety right before the goal line. Harris looked like a cinch to glide into the end zone unmolested, but Jonnu's guy shed the block and grabbed Harris and pulled him awkwardly backwards for a moment before Harris bulled forward again. I thought we'd have a nice piece here but he's been the biggest FA bust on the team by a good margin. I wish we'd see more of Asiasi if this is the best we'll get out of Jonnu, but it seems unlikely that Asiasi is outperforming Jonnu and BB is playing Jonnu anyway. Especially with a young QB needing all the help he can get.
 

SMU_Sox

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I remember that play @DourDoerr and agree with what you said.

Some more Jonnu stuff.

At 19.5 yards per game receiving he is having his worst year there since his rookie year. Even his 2nd year in the league he was better at 19.8 yards per game receiving. He is probably not too far off though as he might end up being a 25-29 yards a game guy at his peak.

I take PFF with a grain of salt but I was just curious if they thought Jonnu was as bad a blocker as I did this year. Of the 50 tight ends who played at last 20% of passing snaps Jonnu is 38th/50 with a terrible 46.6 pass blocking grade. Of the 91 tight ends who have played 20% of running snaps he is 88th/91 with a 44.2 run blocking grade. I was trying to find something he was good at this year but he isn’t catching much and his blocking is atrocious. His cap numbers make him basically untradeable and uncuttable until 2023. You could make an argument that you could trade him in 2022 but who is going to want him on his contract? You’d still take a sizable cap hit anyway. I think the likeliest explanation is he struggled to adjust to life in their system and he needs another year to put it together. That being said though the chances of a guy rebounding in year 2 are low. He might just be a burden on the cap for another year. They could still use an in-line blocker who doesn’t suck wind. At this point he really is a detriment there.
I was looking at potentially cheap options for next year and Mo Alie-Cox’s name came up. He’s 6’5” 267 and while he isn’t an ace blocker he’s at least average and wouldn’t cost much. He also has a size advantage on Jonnu and that size issue has shown up when Jonnu attempts to block edges.