The first 3 weeks are Miami, NYJ and NO. I don’t think this is getting nearly the attention it deserves.
They should be favored to start 3-0 regardless of the QB.
They should be favored to start 3-0 regardless of the QB.
Pats Preseason: QB Edition
- Thread starter Harry Hooper
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Will also be without Michael Thomas. Saints should still be decent because they have a good coach and solid D but should be less formidable than recent versions.
My counter to this would be that if Mac/Cam are basically 50/50 at this point, where either one would give you more or less the same level of performance, then you almost have to go with Mac. Let him take his lumps and learn on the job. It's not going to be perfect, but it's not like Cam was perfect last season either. Let the kid who is actually going to be here next season and beyond get in there and figure it out.
If Cam is simply a cut above and he gives you more than Mac does at this point, then I totally get it, absolutely start Cam and see where it goes. I just don't think you can treat your #15 overall pick with kid gloves because you're worried about breaking him. I'd rather let him wade into the water right from the start than do what Miami did last year, and unceremoniously shove the kid in there during the middle of the season for....... reasons? That didn't work out so hot for Tua, who ended up getting shuffled in and out of the lineup anyways.
I guess what I'm saying is that it has the potential to be a juggling act no matter who you start out with, so just ride or die with whomever is best. If it's close, I'd go with the kid and not look back.
I'd say the Saints are as good as last year, maybe better. They didn't have a healthy Thomas then, and Brees was pretty shot, they were almost as good in the games he missed as with him, and that was starting Hill. There is a solid case Jameis is a better QB than 2020 Drew Brees. They also were fine with Teddy Bridgewater before that. The Saints are really good.
The curse of losing a HOF quarterback is that it can take years or decades to find even someone serviceable. Cam ain’t serviceable. If they win with him it’ll be because of the running game and defense.
Franchises need to take as many shots as possible to find the next guy. I’d care about a washed up vet’s reaction if we were talking about anyone else other than Belichick. Hell, BB saved Cam off the scrap head not once but twice. I can’t see Cam being an ass about it, but if he his, BB with cut him or ship him off.
The ONLY reasons not to start Mac is if he’s not ready and it could affect his development, OR if they think he can’t make it through a full season. I haven’t seen much sign that he’s not ready, and the O-line and running game is just as set up to protect Mac as Cam. I’d much rather start figuring out if Mac is an NFL quarterback sooner rather than later. If he’s not. We’ll be right back where we started; the question is we learn that now or have to wait until week 6 of next year. I honestly think the floor for both QBs is the same, although I admit that I firmly believe Cam is cooked. And the ceiling is much, much higher with Mac.
LFG.
Franchises need to take as many shots as possible to find the next guy. I’d care about a washed up vet’s reaction if we were talking about anyone else other than Belichick. Hell, BB saved Cam off the scrap head not once but twice. I can’t see Cam being an ass about it, but if he his, BB with cut him or ship him off.
The ONLY reasons not to start Mac is if he’s not ready and it could affect his development, OR if they think he can’t make it through a full season. I haven’t seen much sign that he’s not ready, and the O-line and running game is just as set up to protect Mac as Cam. I’d much rather start figuring out if Mac is an NFL quarterback sooner rather than later. If he’s not. We’ll be right back where we started; the question is we learn that now or have to wait until week 6 of next year. I honestly think the floor for both QBs is the same, although I admit that I firmly believe Cam is cooked. And the ceiling is much, much higher with Mac.
LFG.
2020 Brees was pedestrian but Jameis is not a good QB either. He was truly awful in 2019. Maybe Payton can work some magic but I’m far more concerned with their D than their Jameis-led Thomas-less offense.
They're about the same as the last 2 years, maybe a bit more volatile with Jameis who can throw downfield but doesn't take care of the ball.
And what happens if Cam plays.4 games that aren't great and the Pats are 2-2 but Mac still doesn't get a chance? Is his psyche shot because he can't even beat our a guy who sucks? What if he gets a shot and and they go 2-2 in his 4 after replacing Cam and then gets replaced by Cam for the next 4? Is his psyche shot because he couldn't hold the job with 4 chances? Sitting Mac for the first few games opens Pandora's box.
He can either do the job or he can't, but not playing him because he's too mentally fragile to fail means he's already too mentally fragile to succeed. If he's the better QB, play him.
Having Jameis as your starting QB almost by definition makes any team more volatile. They’ll be solid, maybe better if things break right but if the Pats get decent QB play against them, I expect a W.
I will say I don’t think not playing him hurts him mentally. If anything it should drive him. Since he hasn’t seen the field in a real game he doesn’t have real life experience failing in the NFL. Competitive people’s brains aren’t wired to assume failure, especially without trying, they are wired to see someone ahead of them fail, and assume they’d make the correct play. While I want him in there week 1, I think a few weeks behind a flailing Cam might actually be good for him. (Assuming obviously Cam sucks out of the gate)
Yeah, an announcement would go against Belichick precedent. If asked, he'll just say that Cam's the starting quarterback, just as he was at the start of camp.
So if Cam is terrible for 12 weeks and Mac is still on the bench, do think it hurts him?
My point was that the armchair psychology is silly. If he's playing better than Cam, he should play. If he's playing worse, he shouldn't. Worrying about timing it just right to protect his fragile psyche seems pointless to me.
I expect Cam to start game 1 but think we’ll see a switch pretty quickly, with some chance of a limited role for Mac right from the beginning.
The big picture is that BB/McD almost certainly drafted Mac with the idea that this was the guy who could run the kind of offense they want to run and from the outside he has appeared to meet every single challenge so far. My strong suspicion is that they don’t actually want to run the kind of offense Cam runs. It’s not just about an abstract guess regarding who is better, it’s also about playing the kind of football they want to play in terms of limiting TOs, your ability to go hurry up when you need to, your ability to play from behind if necessary, etc. This is why the “tie” will go to Mac. They might want him to sit the first game or two to let him get used to the game day experience but I expect a fast transition as long as he continues to impress.
The big picture is that BB/McD almost certainly drafted Mac with the idea that this was the guy who could run the kind of offense they want to run and from the outside he has appeared to meet every single challenge so far. My strong suspicion is that they don’t actually want to run the kind of offense Cam runs. It’s not just about an abstract guess regarding who is better, it’s also about playing the kind of football they want to play in terms of limiting TOs, your ability to go hurry up when you need to, your ability to play from behind if necessary, etc. This is why the “tie” will go to Mac. They might want him to sit the first game or two to let him get used to the game day experience but I expect a fast transition as long as he continues to impress.
Why is there this narrative that Mac doesn’t have “game day” experience? The kid played at Alabama. We’re not talking North Dakota State. That college program is the most NFL-like in the entirety of college football. He played on the national stage in huge games and all he did was win. The thought that the speed of the NFL is going to shock this kid seems really silly to me. It’s not like he’s been just ok in the preseason either. He already has a firm grasp on the playbook and is showing elite level completion rates. Completely understand that it’s not “real NFL” but it’s pretty damn close and he’s killing it. I also understand that we need to temper expectations but the way Mac has played and conducted himself has me exited for Patriots football. The thought of Cam Newton playing QB sparks no joy.
They've dabbled with QBs who can run before - there was that year they brought in Tebow, they brought in Flutie once, Kevin O'Connell could run, they did a lot of running stuff with Jacoby Brissett even though he had a bad 40 time - so I don't agree with the bolded. I think they would like to have the QB running dimension Cam gives them, all things being equal, but all things aren't equal and Mac checks a lot of boxes for them and was available at 15. I expect them to run a ton this year, like last year, regardless of who is playing QB, and Cam's ability to run gives that running game another dimension.
I mean, plenty of guys come out of big programs and suck. Alabama is more like the NFL in the way a razor scooter is more like a Porsche 911 than a Bicycle is.
I think that you're underselling how much better Alabama is than the vast majority of their opponents. Sure, they get a hard schedule too. But they're like a factory of future NFLers. Last year in 13 games he was sacked 13 times. He wasn't avoiding those sacks with his legs. Opponents just weren't getting past his OL to get him more often than once per game. His wide receivers were always open. Frankly, it was a great place to hone his passing skills, read the defense, etc. What it did not do was prepare him for the speed and change-ups that pro defenses throw you and grown ass men bulldozing you.
Nobody thinks that Mac can't read a defense and a playbook. I have high hopes for the kid and see him as the future. But it's understandable to me that Bill might prefer to start the season with the guy who has a decade of experience dealing with professionals trying to take his head off.
We're not going to know until they walk on the field for week one. After tonight, the rest of the preseason practices are closed. Maybe we'll hear rumors about who is getting more first team reps.
I agree with the consensus that Bill will start Cam week one (not that I agree that's the right call), but he's surprised us before.
What you're saying is true of any college QB in terms of preparing him. However, being coached by Nick Saban is going to get you as ready as you're going to get in terms of how to prepare, study, take hard coaching, etc. Now, the success of Alabama QB's in the pros under Saban is spotty at best but since they've gone to more of a wide-open offense around 2016 their QB's have translated to the NFL game a bit better. Tua, Hurts, and Mac all have a promising future in the NFL. I would also say that Mac worked very, very well with high end talent and made their WR's look good.
Yeah Mac made them look good too, no doubt. I'd like to see him have a few months of film, reps, squats, and cheeseburgers under his belt before handing him the keys. I can understand why people feel differently. But a 217# quarterback who hasn't spent a lot of time on his back could use a little seasoning imo.
I would kind of agree with you if the Patriots offensive line sucked but they actually don’t. They are one of the strengths of the team and that makes me more comfortable putting in Jones sooner rather than later with them in front of him.
Fair point, but the other guys are good too. Pats OL isn't blocking 3-star DL recruits from Kentucky. They're trying to block the best players in the world. Cam was sacked 31 times last year in 15 games. Blame some of that on Cam if you like, but Mac hasn't seen anything like this before.
Sure, the ability to run with the QB is always better. And they’ll definitely run the ball a lot regardless.
My broad point is that we have a couple decades of evidence regarding what kinds of things they like to do on offense and there are a bunch of boxes Cam simply doesn’t check (very well at least) in terms of ability to win pre-snap, run a high efficiency short passing offense, change tempo effectively, etc. It’s not just a question of whether this guy is better than the other guy, it’s also which guy is a better fit for the offense they want to run and team they want to be.
Cam Newton’s sack totals in his career. 35, 36, 43, 38, 33, 36, 35, 29, 6, 31. He gets sacked a ton because he is slow with his reads and can’t get the ball out in time. Newton is who he is 10 plus years into his career. He isn’t magically going to change because he’s wearing a Patriots jersey now. Couple that with the fact his arm kind of sucks now as well.
You picked the wrong program to trash talk. North Dakota State University, or NDSU, has one of the most advanced offenses in all of college football. QBs in their system do things that most other college programs don’t do. They let the QB kill and check into multiple plays at the line. The QB sets his own protection. The QB routinely has to go through half to full field progressions. There are not as many schemed touches. Compare UNC to NDSU. UNC’s offense their guys run like 3-4 routes tops. Their play calling is super simple. The last 3 QBs at NDSU have been drafted and 2 of them, Wentz and Lance, went top 3. Wentz played right away and the only reason Lance is not going to is because he only had a full year as a starter there and came out raw in a lot of ways. Their coaching staff is also highly regarded around the league. You can knock them for level of competition (and I do) and sure that takes some acclimating to but you shouldn’t knock the experience their guys get or the system they run.
I get what you’re trying to say but, respectfully, NDSU is a bad example of this. Again I’d point to a program like UNC whose QB is already being talked about as a first rounder this year.
I was giving a greater importance to the quality of competition not just the nuances of the playbook/coaching etc. The SEC is basically the NFL minor leagues.
Cute analogy but no.... I'm not even sure what your analogy is stating. You lost me with the bicycle.
I'm also taking into account the fact that even in practice he has had to go up against NFL caliber defensive players because of the school he went to.
Obviously this isn't a guarantee of anything, but you're not going to get much better NFL prep than playing for Alabama. You play with elite players, *against* elite players, having received elite coaching, and having played in the biggest games college football has to offer.
I'd actually say you're better off at other SEC schools towards the middle or bottom. Alabama's massive talent advantage is less like the NFL than the experience of someone at say... Kentucky, where they have NFL talents, and play against NFL talent, but don't have significant talent advantages against most teams.
More generally, the thing is.... College isn't the NFL, the step is really big, especially for QBs, so proving it in college doesn't mean you've proved much for the NFL
Of course nothing can REALLY prepare you for the NFL. But I think a place like Bama gives you as good a prep as anything college has to offer.
Kentucky has worse coaching than Alabama, and the Kentucky QB plays against much worse defenders than the Bama QB does when they have practice.
The problem with Newton is obvious passing downs. Starting Newton is sort of a concession that they will be below average in third and longs and if they fall too far behind.
I have no inside info aside from public knowledge of his previous shoulder surgeries, but to me, he throws like someone who has arthritis in his shoulder.
If his mechanics are perfect (rare) and he has his body lined up he can still make a good throw. But in general he just doesn't have arm strength or consistency of an average or better NFL QB.
Mac seemed to be clearly the best and most consistent QB this preseason. I am not sure if that is enough for him to start, but he did all he could.
Mac’s preseason QB rating:
Game 1: 78.2
Game 2: 91.1
Game 3: 131.8
Cam will likely start but if he falters early, it’s going to get ugly with the fans. It’s one thing to stick with Cam last year when the alternative is Stidham but now you have a legit high profile QB prospect waiting in the wings who has done nothing to dispel the notion that he may be ready for more.
Game 1: 78.2
Game 2: 91.1
Game 3: 131.8
Cam will likely start but if he falters early, it’s going to get ugly with the fans. It’s one thing to stick with Cam last year when the alternative is Stidham but now you have a legit high profile QB prospect waiting in the wings who has done nothing to dispel the notion that he may be ready for more.
NFL network saying that Cam should start. At least MJD said the leash is short.
Edit - The analysts said that on the post-game.
Edit - The analysts said that on the post-game.
Cam did nothing today to lose his job, nor did he do anything to inspire confidence that he can run Josh's offense at a high level.
One wonders how poorly he has to perform for BB to pull the switch.
One wonders how poorly he has to perform for BB to pull the switch.
All of Mac's time came with the backups. Cam barely played at all, but with the starters, who also barely played at all.
To me that makes it pretty clear that Cam will start.
Although, BB not making it official.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1432150217256800257?s=20
Evan Lazar: #Patriots head coach Bill Belichick says he hasn’t made a decision on the starting QB for Week 1, “no, we have a lot of decisions to make.”
To me that makes it pretty clear that Cam will start.
Although, BB not making it official.
View: https://twitter.com/ezlazar/status/1432150217256800257?s=20
Evan Lazar: #Patriots head coach Bill Belichick says he hasn’t made a decision on the starting QB for Week 1, “no, we have a lot of decisions to make.”
I mean Mac can only control what he can control and he does not get to pick whom he plays with. All I can say is that Mac seemed to throw a much better ball and move the offense better than Cam did.
Edit - I agree that Cam will most likely start; I am just saying I would probably go with Mac.
Edit - I agree that Cam will most likely start; I am just saying I would probably go with Mac.
This
First preseason game I’ve watched in years. The few throws Cam tried to make besides the stolen int were painful to watch. Mac looks ready to me. Maybe I’m dreaming but he looks like a natural star QB.
So would I. But if there was an even competion, Mac would get time with the starters and Cam would need to show more thn 2-5 for 10 to hang on to the job.
From BB press conference
View: https://twitter.com/ByChrisMason/status/1432150280888586240
View: https://twitter.com/RyanHannable/status/1432150268834091008
and Mac Jones answer is straight from the BB textbook
View: https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1432157006035619842
View: https://twitter.com/ByChrisMason/status/1432150280888586240
View: https://twitter.com/RyanHannable/status/1432150268834091008
and Mac Jones answer is straight from the BB textbook
View: https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1432157006035619842
I agree. One constant under Belichick is that he plays who he thinks will give them the best chance to win that week.
Watching Cam all of last season - he’s just not very good. Could he lead this team to 9 wins? Sure. But this team is built to do more than that. And I don’t think Cam is capable of much more than that. He really struggles to throw the ball.
Mac Jones has been throwing the ball like a veteran QB. I think he starts week 1.
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