Pats QB Options

Status
Not open for further replies.

Dr. Gonzo

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2010
3,135
Especially since Perry was all over the signings as being close to desperate.

Trustworthy local guys are who? Lazar, Curran, Reiss, Kyed, Daniels, and (still) Howe?
For me, Curran is off the list. He just is not very insightful and definitely just tries to generate clicks at this point. The fact he is on with Florio quite a bit sealed it for me.
 

cournoyer

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2012
456
Enfield, Connecticut
For me, Curran is off the list. He just is not very insightful and definitely just tries to generate clicks at this point. The fact he is on with Florio quite a bit sealed it for me.
Curran used to be great. Now he's super hot-takey and pretty much takes the negativity road whenever he can. I echo everyone else that Lazar is probably the best right now. Comes out with legitimate insight and his opinions seem to be without bias. It seems like these guys should be focusing their energy on the draft if they really want to discuss quarterbacks but obviously that isn't how it works.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
46,561
After the AB debacle there's little chance the Pats would even be interested in Watson in with what's out there right now.
 

Pandemonium67

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
5,093
Lesterland
Yeah, until that gets cleared up, I think there's gonna be a lot of hesitation for any team considering Watson. That huge cost, and now a big question mark and potential PR disaster.

That said, I think signing Cam made Watson very unlikely anyway. Watson has said Cam was one of his heroes; would he consent to go to the Pats and put his hero out of a job? (Counterpoint: would Watson have wanted to be on the same team as his hero anyway?)

I think BB is focusing on putting all the non-QB pieces in place now, using Cam for a year or two, and drafting his future QB this year. I can imagine him moving up if someone he really wants is available, or taking the best of whomever is left later.

This fits in well with the direction I see the Pats taking as a D first team complemented by a ground-and-pound, move-the-chains O. Bill is going back to his roots.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,444
New York City
Right or wrong, I don’t think the Watson allegations make a difference in how NFL teams deal with him. There are about 25 fan bases that would be overjoyed to have him, and there don’t seem to be any serious criminal law involvement.

Like Pando1967 this does seem like BB has built a whole team designed for a cam Newton or other mobile qb to win with now. Given how few holes the team has other than behind center it seems to me like he might be getting ready to trade for a fields or lance who could take over as a qb from Newton and play a similar style.
 

Zososoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2009
7,377
South of North
I think BB is the king of keeping all options open for leverage. He's adding draft capital for a potential trade up and simultaneously keeping track of the trade/FA market. The FA market isn't exciting, but BB should be able to add a decent backup for cheap if he wants (Mitchy, Jameis (maybe depending on NOLA), or an older journeyman).

In the meantime, he's built and continues to add to what should be a monster of a team.
 

67YAZ

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2000
4,662
Right or wrong, I don’t think the Watson allegations make a difference in how NFL teams deal with him. There are about 25 fan bases that would be overjoyed to have him, and there don’t seem to be any serious criminal law involvement.
.
There’s currently 3 lawsuits filed and the promise of 3 more on the way. Have to think the NFL will get involved soon with their own investigation, which may well lead to a suspension.

Teams aren’t going to make a move for Watson when it seems like there are so many more shoes waiting to drop.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
20,236
Philadelphia
Right or wrong, I don’t think the Watson allegations make a difference in how NFL teams deal with him. There are about 25 fan bases that would be overjoyed to have him, and there don’t seem to be any serious criminal law involvement.

Like Pando1967 this does seem like BB has built a whole team designed for a cam Newton or other mobile qb to win with now. Given how few holes the team has other than behind center it seems to me like he might be getting ready to trade for a fields or lance who could take over as a qb from Newton and play a similar style.
Disagree. Even if there is no criminal case (which we don't know yet), the league could still hit him with a huge suspension and there could be very significant pressure to cut ties with the player depending on how things shake out. Who is going to trade three or four 1st round picks for a guy that could end up suspended for a year?
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
I think BB is the king of keeping all options open for leverage. He's adding draft capital for a potential trade up and simultaneously keeping track of the trade/FA market. The FA market isn't exciting, but BB should be able to add a decent backup for cheap if he wants (Mitchy, Jameis (maybe depending on NOLA), or an older journeyman).

In the meantime, he's built and continues to add to what should be a monster of a team.
Jameis basically signed the Cam contract with the Saints (except slightly higher guarantees & slightly less incentives).
 

Otis Foster

rex ryan's podiatrist
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
1,613
Do you mean you think the Pats will have to pay a premium over any other team to get Watson? If so, I don't see why that's true. Caserio? I just don't know and don't see any evidence for it.
[/QUOTE]

Isn't that a problem? If there's already significant resistance to trading Watson, any deal with his former colleagues will be looked at with heightened suspicion, leading to the conclusion that the Patriots offer must irrefutably be the best by a substantial degree.
There’s currently 3 lawsuits filed and the promise of 3 more on the way. Have to think the NFL will get involved soon with their own investigation, which may well lead to a suspension.

Teams aren’t going to make a move for Watson when it seems like there are so many more shoes waiting to drop.
Particularly in this market. The Globe would literally be exhaling flames. Can you imagine Renee Graham’s next column? The Patriots signing him while these charges are in the air would be the NFL equivalent of Jamestown.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,444
New York City
Disagree. Even if there is no criminal case (which we don't know yet), the league could still hit him with a huge suspension and there could be very significant pressure to cut ties with the player depending on how things shake out. Who is going to trade three or four 1st round picks for a guy that could end up suspended for a year?
As a thinking feeling human being I hope you're right, as an NFL prognosticator I'm sticking to my guns. I think Chicago does the trade in a second. I think Carolina does it in a second. I think Miami does it in a second. Honestly, kraft does it in two seconds.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
20,236
Philadelphia
As a thinking feeling human being I hope you're right, as an NFL prognosticator I'm sticking to my guns. I think Chicago does the trade in a second. I think Carolina does it in a second. I think Miami does it in a second. Honestly, kraft does it in two seconds.
You may be right.

What I can't get past is the downside risk. I don't doubt that many of these organizations and owners are fundamentally immoral and perfectly willing to overlook something horrific. But I think there is a risk-reward problem even them. Trading four 1st round picks for a guy that ends up as the next Ray Rice (not the most likely outcome by any means, but still in play until we know more details) is a franchise killing scenario.
 

ShaneTrot

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 17, 2002
5,479
Overland Park, KS
Curran used to be great. Now he's super hot-takey and pretty much takes the negativity road whenever he can. I echo everyone else that Lazar is probably the best right now. Comes out with legitimate insight and his opinions seem to be without bias. It seems like these guys should be focusing their energy on the draft if they really want to discuss quarterbacks but obviously that isn't how it works.
I still kind of like Curran but he is/was so far up Brady's ass you would think he worked for TB12.

This team was 7-9 with no weapons and you could make a case that their best LB was Terez Hall. Even with Cam as the QB, I expect a huge improvement in 2021.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
As a thinking feeling human being I hope you're right, as an NFL prognosticator I'm sticking to my guns. I think Chicago does the trade in a second. I think Carolina does it in a second. I think Miami does it in a second. Honestly, kraft does it in two seconds.
Well, it’s not like Kraft has any experience with legal issues centered around massages...
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
46,561
CBS's latest mock has QBs going 1-3, then Lance at #12 to SF and Jones at #15 to Patriots.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
10,928
As a thinking feeling human being I hope you're right, as an NFL prognosticator I'm sticking to my guns. I think Chicago does the trade in a second. I think Carolina does it in a second. I think Miami does it in a second. Honestly, kraft does it in two seconds.
Kraft might not due to the near certainty of a two year suspension for Watson. But other teams don't live with that fear. I agree that Chicago might make the same offer for Watson that they did for Wilson. I also suspect that all these lawsuits will make him a bit more flexible with the NTC.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
10,928
CBS's latest mock has QBs going 1-3, then Lance at #12 to SF and Jones at #15 to Patriots.
I think that New England trades up for Lance (or Fields, which is my hope) and that the Niners end up with Mac Jones.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
2,601
Berkeley, CA
“Do you mean you think the Pats will have to pay a premium over any other team to get Watson? If so, I don't see why that's true. Caserio? I just don't know and don't see any evidence for it.”

Isn't that a problem? If there's already significant resistance to trading Watson, any deal with his former colleagues will be looked at with heightened suspicion, leading to the conclusion that the Patriots offer must irrefutably be the best by a substantial degree.
Again, I don’t see any evidence to support your speculation. Substantial degree? Like adding, say, JC Jackson above a Pats offer that’s already MORE than any other offer? Maybe, but I doubt it.

If we’re going to speculate, then I’d guess Caserio survived - and thrived - in the Pats FO for almost 2 decades because he doesn’t get sidetracked by BS. Now that he’s in charge he’s not going to give a goddam what any one else thinks about his deals - nor should he - as long as he gets what he thinks is fair (to the Texans at least). That’s how his mentor has operated (incredibly successfully) during his entire tenure.
 
Last edited:

simplyeric

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 14, 2006
13,954
Richmond, VA
As a thinking feeling human being I hope you're right, as an NFL prognosticator I'm sticking to my guns. I think Chicago does the trade in a second. I think Carolina does it in a second. I think Miami does it in a second. Honestly, kraft does it in two seconds.
But does BB do it?
He has talked about coaching players he likes, amd he had to deal with the whole Hernandez nightmare. Watson isn’t exactly accused of murder, but still...BB (as the GM and the coach), having just assembled an extremely promising roster, might not want to risk all of those chess moves on a piece that might get suspended, be arrested, or otherwise feel the effects of multiple sexual assault lawsuits.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,444
New York City
But does BB do it?
He has talked about coaching players he likes, amd he had to deal with the whole Hernandez nightmare. Watson isn’t exactly accused of murder, but still...BB (as the GM and the coach), having just assembled an extremely promising roster, might not want to risk all of those chess moves on a piece that might get suspended, be arrested, or otherwise feel the effects of multiple sexual assault lawsuits.
I could imagine BB avoiding it because he's worried about the downside risk of (in his mind) an unfair NFL penalty, especially if Watson were a patriot, but I think otherwise he wouldn't give a fuck. Per the recent Dynasty book, BB only reluctantly waived Antonio Brown and that was for pretty similar allegations from an already sketchy guy with a side of witness intimidation.

I don't agree with BB at all but I really think that NFL GMs and owners give a fuck about a player whipping it out in front of a masseuse. That's their failing as people and managers but I think the reality is that in putting together an NFL team you need to get used to a lot worse.
 
Last edited:

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,495
1. How much of an upgrade would Derek Carr be over Cam?
2. What's a reasonable trade that the Pats could offer that the Raiders would likely accept?
3. Would you want to make that trade?
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
3,685
1. How much of an upgrade would Derek Carr be over Cam?
2. What's a reasonable trade that the Pats could offer that the Raiders would likely accept?
3. Would you want to make that trade?
I think he’s a huge upgrade. When he’s protected, Carr is a very good QB. But I doubt the Raiders have any incentive or desire to trade him.

I’d imagine the Stafford deal is a starting point (two firsts).
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,495
I think he’s a huge upgrade. When he’s protected, Carr is a very good QB. But I doubt the Raiders have any incentive or desire to trade him.

I’d imagine the Stafford deal is a starting point (two firsts).
Would you do NE's 2021 and 2022 first round picks for Carr?
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
3,685
Would you do NE's 2021 and 2022 first round picks for Carr?
I'd rather try to move up for Lance or Fields to have a QB from this class on a rookie contract given the price it would likely take to get Carr.

Maybe the Raiders would accept something less than #15 and a 2022 first though. Looking at the Stafford deal again since they're comparable performance wise, the Rams gave up their 2022 and 2023 firsts, each is less valuable than #15. They also got DET to eat Goff's contract.

Carr is a bit more valuable than Stafford because he's three years younger and comes with a better injury history. I think #15 and a 2022 2nd might be more comparable to the Stafford package since you're not asking Vegas to eat a shit contract in return. I think I'd do that.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
15,495
I'd rather trade for Lance too. But if the price is 3 firsts, a second, and a starter for the right to pick Lance, or two firsts to trade for Carr, what's the better option? It's not an easy call.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Staff member
Dope
Apr 9, 2007
14,262
Washington
Yeah, I don't think the Raiders wold trade Carr unless they knew they could use the return to draft a replacement that Gruden really likes, which is the same problem facing New England. Carr is good. Not having a good QB really sucks unless you are getting someone younger/cheaper who you assess could also be good.

I think New England might be able to sign Mariotta pretty soon though. I don't think he'll take that pay cut.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
Jimmy G is fun & all, but I can't see giving up significant assets to try to figure out how to free up $25m under the cap for his current contract, nor do I have much excitement about the idea of giving him a big extension to lower his cap # for this year.

Also don't see much point for the 49ers to trade him for minimal assets when he's their only starting QB & they'd likely be eligible for a reasonable comp pick if they let him walk after the year, or be able to tag him in some form.
 

Jungleland

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 2, 2009
1,579
Door pretty much closed on Jimmy as soon as the Stafford trade happened, imo. It never really made sense to trade for his contract, and never made sense for SF to cut bait without a clear upgrade. I guess a pre-allegations Watson could have made things interesting, but like here I never really viewed SF as having the assets.

I really don't follow college so what I know of the draft QBs is largely just from here, but this week's moves have me favoring trade up more than ever - there's a really strong foundation in place for the next few years so if you have to develop someone, anyone with a higher ceiling than Jimmy is now way more intriguing.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
74,094
Oregon

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
Jimmy G is fun & all, but I can't see giving up significant assets to try to figure out how to free up $25m under the cap for his current contract, nor do I have much excitement about the idea of giving him a big extension to lower his cap # for this year.

Also don't see much point for the 49ers to trade him for minimal assets when he's their only starting QB & they'd likely be eligible for a reasonable comp pick if they let him walk after the year, or be able to tag him in some form.
I forgot he had another year at $27m to the 49ers or $25.6m to us on his contract when making this post.

Doesn't change much for me in terms of trade not making much sense for either side.

Weird Stat - Jimmy G has only thrown for more than 7 TDs in a season once in his career.
 

fieldslikebuckner

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 31, 2005
383
The Boston-NY DMZ
I'm going to take a contrarian view. I still believe Jimmy G is the target, with a Mills or Monds or one of the second tier quarterbacks drafted and seasoned for a couple years with the hope they succeed Jimmy G down the road.

This team is built to win now. And the offense is built for power running and someone who can manage the game, make the short and intermediate throws, and minimize risk. This, to me, screams Jimmy G and not Cam, and not a rookie.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
24,363
I'm going to take a contrarian view. I still believe Jimmy G is the target, with a Mills or Monds or one of the second tier quarterbacks drafted and seasoned for a couple years with the hope they succeed Jimmy G down the road.

This team is built to win now. And the offense is built for power running and someone who can manage the game, make the short and intermediate throws, and minimize risk. This, to me, screams Jimmy G and not Cam, and not a rookie.
See to me, this team screams for a mobile QB. lots of 12, a strong O-line and a burner deep threat. That's exactly how you build a team around a big mobile QB. You're constantly creating mismatches with the thread of a Cam run behind 7 good blockers, you have the type of pass catchers that have done well with Cam in the past in big mobile TEs and deep shots.
 

scott bankheadcase

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 1, 2006
1,817
hoboken
I forgot he had another year at $27m to the 49ers or $25.6m to us on his contract when making this post.

Doesn't change much for me in terms of trade not making much sense for either side.

Weird Stat - Jimmy G has only thrown for more than 7 TDs in a season once in his career.
He's really only played 1 season as a starter in his career.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
He's really only played 1 season as a starter in his career.
That's kind of my point. Heading into his age 30 season, he's been the presumptive starter for 4 games for the Patriots in 2016 & 4 seasons with the 49ers, & of those 68 games he has started 32 of them, including 16 in 2019.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
For comparison purposes, Cam has been the presumptive starter since the 1st game of his rookie season in 2011 & has started 140 of those 160 games, including at least 14 games every year but 1, & missing 14 of those 20 games in that 1 season.

& he's only 2 years older than JG.

Of course, on the downside, Cam isn't good at like passing. But I don't think the upgrade from Cam to JG as a passer is worth the pick/contract/injury risk commitment attendant with a JG acquisition.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,203
To explain the difference in durability in a slightly sillier way...

If you exclude 2019, Cam has made 96.5% of his expected NFL starts while JG has made 30.8% of his.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
3,685
No thanks on Jimmy. There’s a reason the 49ers are rumored to be moving on and possibly in the same spot we are, wanting to move up in the draft.

Their QB is oft-injured, ineffective when healthy, and overpaid. The production he’s put up in a Shanahan system with an elite offensive line is disappointing. And he’s missed a million games.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
2,601
Berkeley, CA
I’ve finally cooled on JG too. He’s been kind of a white whale over the years. What would he look like when Brady stepped aside, what would he look like if he was uninjured, etc.. The promise that his younger, quicker self would be able to run more often is a mirage now given injuries, build, and age. He’d still be a good QB for this team - and I like his skill set more than Cam’s - but durability, acquisition cost, and contract have finally settled the issue for me. I’m done pining. Moving on.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
24,363
Jimmy G as a post-cut flyer is a nice pickup. Jimmy G on his current contract is bad even if you don't have to trade anything for him. He's a mediocre QB who also can't stay healthy, I'd much rather run Cam out there and develop a rookie (whether a tradeup or a mid-round rawer prospect).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.