Pats QB Options

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sodenj5

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I don't think a 6th QB should be taken until the 3rd round. But teams do silly things, so no clue.
Anyone want to guess when the sixth QB might be taken? Looking at Atlanta at 35, wondering if they might consider taking a QB then if they don't at 4.
I would guess it’s Davis Mills from Stanford. He seems to have some buzz as a round 2-3 QB and could go after the first wave.
 

tims4wins

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Thought exercise: Mac to SF is a smokescreen. They end up taking Fields. Denver then takes Lance at 9. Mac ends up falling to the Pats at 15. Do the Pats take him? Should they? If he were to fall I’d guess another team may have interest in trading up and giving up something pretty valuable. It would depend on who else is available, but I’m not sure what I’d prefer the Pats to do in that situation.
 
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My guess is if the Patriots like Mac Jones enough to take him at #15, then they would try to trade up to secure him, as opposed to chancing that he’ll make it all the way to their original pick. If he’s there at #15, which I doubt he will be, I hope they take Parsons or Horn instead.
 

BigSoxFan

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My guess is if the Patriots like Mac Jones enough to take him at #15, then they would try to trade up to secure him, as opposed to chancing that he’ll make it all the way to their original pick. If he’s there at #15, which I doubt he will be, I hope they take Parsons or Horn instead.
I’m with you. I don’t like Mac enough to take him over a guy like Horn or Parsons. Someone unexpected will fall to 15. I’m more than content staying put if the QB trade up doesn’t materialize.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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Thought exercise: Mac to SF is a smokescreen. They end up taking Fields. Denver then takes Lance at 9. Mac ends up falling to the Pats at 15. Do the Pats take him? Should they? If he were to fall I’d guess another team may have interest in trading up and giving up something pretty valuable. It would depend on who else is available, but I’m not sure what I’d prefer the Pats to do in that situation.
In this scenario, the Patriots better do their best to trade to 8 and grab Lance.
 

DJnVa

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Per Albert Breer, the Pats will be attending Justin Field's pro day on Wednesday.

As of Sunday, I was told just two teams have committed to being in Columbus—the 49ers … and the Patriots. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch are expected to lead the Niners’ contingent to Ohio State (and North Dakota State too). As for the Patriots, this is subject to change, but I wouldn’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is leading a group there for New England that will likely also max out the three allowable people, under the 2021 pro day rules.
Chargers coach Brandon Staley talks building team culture virtually - Sports Illustrated
 

JM3

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RedOctober3829

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Albert Breer says the Patriots and the Niners are the only two teams committed to coming to this pro day for Fields. He thinks Josh McDaniels will lead a contingent of 3 people to go watch which is the max you can have at a pro day.

That leads me to believe they are at least thinking about trading up in the draft although I don't think they ultimately will. I'm just hoping Fields slides down to 15.
 

DJnVa

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Albert Breer says the Patriots and the Niners are the only two teams committed to coming to this pro day for Fields. He thinks Josh McDaniels will lead a contingent of 3 people to go watch which is the max you can have at a pro day.
Literally 2 posts above you ;)
 

axx

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Betting line has over 5.5 1st round QBs paying 3-1.
I was kind of wondering about that, maybe having a team trade with KC or Tampa. Insanity but that's QBs for ya. Came to the conclusion that the fifth year isn't that important for QBs since you're more likely to want more than one more year out of them if you like them that much.
 

thurin68

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I wonder if the Pats will use the opportunity to talk more about Garoppalo since the 49’ers will be the only other team present?
 

JM3

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Danny Kelly of The Ringer's latest mock has Patriots trading up to 7 to draft Fields, giving up #15, #96 & 2022 1st rounder. Would do that trade no problem.

Then he has WFT trading up to 8 for Lance, giving up #19, #74, #72 & their 2022 1st.

Would do that, too, if I'm WFT I guess, but seems like they're giving up more for 8 than Patriots are for 7.

https://nfldraft.theringer.com/mock-draft?_ga=2.21026300.671040520.1618336326-amp-LuawJ4_yjqsC-dhydvWe4AFbrufYtEgW7afuFeZhXz8dJ0eIp--smqyj5ypGF3jv
 

tims4wins

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Danny Kelly of The Ringer's latest mock has Patriots trading up to 7 to draft Fields, giving up #15, #96 & 2022 1st rounder. Would do that trade no problem.

Then he has WFT trading up to 8 for Lance, giving up #19, #74, #72 & their 2022 1st.

Would do that, too, if I'm WFT I guess, but seems like they're giving up more for 8 than Patriots are for 7.

https://nfldraft.theringer.com/mock-draft?_ga=2.21026300.671040520.1618336326-amp-LuawJ4_yjqsC-dhydvWe4AFbrufYtEgW7afuFeZhXz8dJ0eIp--smqyj5ypGF3jv
But they're trading up from 19, so +11 for them vs. +8 for the Pats, and 19 is a worse pick than 15, so they should have to pay more.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I have no idea why people arent climbing over themselves to get Fields. The chance to get an extremely accurate, mobile, winning QB from a top tier school after, potentially, the top 5?

Yes. Sign me up for all of it.
 

JM3

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But they're trading up from 19, so +11 for them vs. +8 for the Pats, and 19 is a worse pick than 15, so they should have to pay more.
Right, but I'd project a 2022 Redskins 1st to be more valuable than a 2022 Patriots 1st, but perhaps I'm just biased.
 

E5 Yaz

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I think SF is going Fields.

The question becomes, do you spend the capital on Jones or Lance?
 

tims4wins

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Kiper's two round mock today has the Pats trading 15 + 2022 first to Dallas for 10 and selecting Fields. So we can cross that possibility off the list.

Edit: he has Amari Rodgers at 46
 

Cellar-Door

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Right, but I'd project a 2022 Redskins 1st to be more valuable than a 2022 Patriots 1st, but perhaps I'm just biased.
I think teams don't really parse 1st rounders that much, the NFL is too difficult to predict. However... WAS just made the playoffs with the worst QB situation in the league, and they play in the worst division in football. If I were putting odds on picks, I'd say the path to winning the division for the WFT is much clearer than the Patriots.
 

JM3

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I think teams don't really parse 1st rounders that much, the NFL is too difficult to predict. However... WAS just made the playoffs with the worst QB situation in the league, and they play in the worst division in football. If I were putting odds on picks, I'd say the path to winning the division for the WFT is much clearer than the Patriots.
Patriots O/U is 9, WFT is 8, & WFT +180 to make playoffs, Patriots +137. So Marketwise, Patriots pick projected to be slightly further down.

& I'm not sure why a team wouldn't parse draft picks? Seems like a super easy projection to make including confidence intervals blah blah blah.
 

Saints Rest

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Is there a limit as to how many pro days a team can attend? Seems like it would be smart to send your folks to every single major pro day. See lots of players, disguise your true intentions, see how other teams are responding. Maybe even talk trades while there.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Is there a limit as to how many pro days a team can attend? Seems like it would be smart to send your folks to every single major pro day. See lots of players, disguise your true intentions, see how other teams are responding. Maybe even talk trades while there.
This is exactly what the Pats have done. Hell, they even sent someone to Lawrence's pro day. Now maybe you can try to read tea leaves by what level of seniority of management goes to each specific pro day but there are so many other variables that would go into scheduling of who goes where when that it would seem like something of a fool's errand to bother trying to do that.
 

simplyeric

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Is there a limit as to how many pro days a team can attend? Seems like it would be smart to send your folks to every single major pro day. See lots of players, disguise your true intentions, see how other teams are responding. Maybe even talk trades while there.
IRT the bolded: talk up players you aren't as interested in as much as possible, and hope the guy you really want slips.
 

JM3

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Some of the odds I see for #3 are:

Jones -200
Fields +250
Lance +300
Wilson +1400

Jones -175
Fields +160
Lance +460
Wilson +1800

Jones -250
Fields +250
Lance +350
Wilson +1600

Jones -175
Fields +100
Lance +400
Wilson +2400

Jones -230
Fields +180
Lance +400
Wilson +2000
 
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djbayko

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Some of the odds I see for #3 are:

Jones -200
Fields +250
Lance +300
Wilson +1400

Jones -175
Fields +160
Lance +460
Wilson +1800

Jones -250
Fields +250
Lance +350
Wilson +1600

Jones -175
Fields +100
Lance +400
Wilson +2400

Jones -230
Fields +180
Lance +400
Wilson +2000
Okay, so -120 to -250, if we include whatever sportsbooks you're looking at (I was looking at offshores exclusively). That's still a far cry from being able to turn a "Not Mac" vote into 5/1 return. Would be closer to 1/1.
 

JM3

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A couple other QB-related props:

Team to draft Fields:

49ers +175
Falcons +300
Broncos +400
WFT +600
Patriots +700

Team to draft Lance:

Broncos +300
Falcons +400
49ers +400
WFT +400
Patriots +500
 

JM3

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Okay, so -120 to -250, if we include your books (I was looking at offshores exclusively). That's still a far cry from being able to turn a "Not Mac" vote into 5/1 return.
Yeah, wasn't trying to argue one side or the other, just trying to put the info out there, & yeah, no one is getting 5/1 on not Jones right now... can't even get 5/1 on Lance being the pick.
 

Jimbodandy

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It's fun watching guys ride up and down the boards over the last few weeks. Jones went from "might be available at 15" to a favorite at #3 in short time. That doesn't happen in hoop.
 

67YAZ

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This is exactly what the Pats have done. Hell, they even sent someone to Lawrence's pro day. Now maybe you can try to read tea leaves by what level of seniority of management goes to each specific pro day but there are so many other variables that would go into scheduling of who goes where when that it would seem like something of a fool's errand to bother trying to do that.
I can’t get clarity on this being just Fields or a full Ohio St second pro day. These events get billed by the QB, but OSU has so much talent that attending both days makes sense regardless of what they think about Fields.
 

wilked

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I wasn’t trying to give odds on the field vs Jones, but rather for Fields. Anyway, seems my source was crap, sorry about that! Was accessing from work computer and couldn’t go into the betting sites directly so used Twitter as proxy
 

JM3

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I wasn’t trying to give odds on the field vs Jones, but rather for Fields. Anyway, seems my source was crap, sorry about that! Was accessing from work computer and couldn’t go into the betting sites directly so used Twitter as proxy
Nbd. Could have been his typo or from the website...

Screenshot_20210413-134839_Chrome.jpg
 

djbayko

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I wasn’t trying to give odds on the field vs Jones, but rather for Fields. Anyway, seems my source was crap, sorry about that! Was accessing from work computer and couldn’t go into the betting sites directly so used Twitter as proxy
Yeah, it took me too long to realize that. Hence my "nvm" :)
 

Super Nomario

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I think if the Pats were considering it, they would avoid the pro day.
If they skipped the Pro Day, when they obviously need a QB, it would be too obvious they're interested and just skipping to make people think they're not interested. So they've got to send somebody so they don't tip teams off.

Unless, teams realize that they have to send somebody or tip them off, and thus sending them is the tip-off.
 

Saints Rest

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If they skipped the Pro Day, when they obviously need a QB, it would be too obvious they're interested and just skipping to make people think they're not interested. So they've got to send somebody so they don't tip teams off.

Unless, teams realize that they have to send somebody or tip them off, and thus sending them is the tip-off.
View: https://youtu.be/rMz7JBRbmNo
 

leftfieldlegacy

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This interest in Fields no longer seems like a smoke screen to me. It feels like Belichick is getting ready to take his "shock and awe" approach to free agency and apply it to the draft. After all of their activity in the FA market, they can't possibly use all of their 2021 picks so they are either being traded to move up for a QB or traded back for future picks. In the past, it was always safe to assume Belichick would trade back. I don't think that's going to be the case this year. I can't wait for the next shoe to drop.
 
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