This is where I am at as well. One team has a 20 year history of being the best team, or one of the best, in the league and one is the Jets, who cannot get out of their own way.
This is the answer, right here. Besides the lack of weapons in NE, there's also the difficulty of Easterby/Caserio trading with Belichick, who has less to offer in return.
I think this may be true, although I'll say it could be that Watson wants to play for Belichick and is willing to bet on the Patriots as a franchise. Unlikely but possible.
The Jets are the Vegas favorite and I don't get it. I suppose because of Saleh, the NY media market, and other factors mentioned. But acquiring Watson would put a serious dent in one of the Jets' main advantages (the draft capital), and while Saleh is highly regarded he's totally unproven as a head coach and the Jets as an organization don't have the best track record.
I disagree with the Pats being able to beat any offer. Obviously, 5 number 1's is not even in the realm of reality so let's deal in actual reality. The Jaguars could offer the #1 pick to draft Lawrence, #25, 2 2nd rounders this year, and their #1 next year The Jets could offer #2, #23, and have 1 or 2 first rounders to offer next year. The Dolphins could offer #3, #18, both of their 2nds this year, and their first next year. It's pretty clear the Patriots couldn't sniff those offers.
Don't they also have SF as even money to land Stafford? Seems unlikely, though potentially hilarious, that both would end up on the same team.
Dolphins definitely make the most sense to me. You'd have to be really, REALLY sure about your Tua evaluation to pass up the opportunity to land Deshaun Watson smack dab in his prime and signed up. Sure, there is an alternative path to success where Tua develops into the guy we saw at Bama and you keep that draft capital to add playmakers/protection around him but the risk they would run is adding a bunch of talent and having Tua not making a leap. Then, you'd have a solid team around a bad/mediocre QB and no real opportunity to add that QB you need to make it all work.
1) True, but Miami is still closer to being a contender at this point than the Patriots.
Interesting take. The defense was ranked between roughly 6-15 for a lot of categories despite a horrific offense, Gilmore injuries, and opt outs.
Pats' D wasn't very good by DVOA rank, but in many other metrics they were pretty solid.
I'm sure they did keep opponents under their season average, but a big reason for that was opponents had only 157 drives, fewest in the NFL. So while the NE D finished 7th in points allowed and 15th in yards allowed, they were only 16th in points allowed per drive and 25th in yards allowed per drive. They were inefficient on a per play basis as well - 6.9 NY/A passing against ranked 23rd, and 4.5 YPC against ranked 20th. It was not a good defense.
Hoyer isn't even under contract, it's just Stidham. But that's hardly the only position group that's an issue. TE / WR have been tire fires two years running, LB has been severely depleted (and Hightower is no lock to return), and the only DL under contract are Cowart and something named Michael Barnett.
The proposed trades you cite aren't actual reality either. The Jags are not offering that haul for Watson. In actual reality, the Dolphins' hiring of Charlie Frye as QB coach has been hailed by some as an indication they're sticking with Tua. And Tua isn't looking like a franchise QB Houston would necessarily be interested in building around anyway. In actual reality, the Jets have sucked as an organization for several decades, which can't have much appeal to a guy looking for a place with an established culture of competitive excellence. Perhaps Saleh is the guy to turn it all around. I have my doubts.
I'm assuming they will upgrade the QB situation so I'm not even taking into account QB when it comes to "most lacking". It's a given they'll add to that room.
All of these are true.
If only there was some kind of precedent for Bill Belichick adding mid-tier free agents and a QB change to take an under .500 team to a Super Bowl winner...
I'm not saying those teams would offer up all of those picks I listed. However, what they have to offer in draft capital is a lot more significant than what the Patriots can offer Houston. Charlie Frye's hiring would not hinder the Dolphins if they had a chance to get Watson. Houston would not have to take back Tua either. Miami could turn around and spin Tua to another team that wants him. #3/#18/2022 #1 would be enough without having to include Tua. As far as the Jets, I agree with you. I am not sure why Watson would want to go there either. But, he controls the entire situation and if he wants to go there they have the assets to make a big offer to satisfy Houston's need of picks.
Considering what the Pats have been getting out of their 1st and 2nd round draft picks lately, unloading a ton of them for Watson might not result in a huge hit to the Pats' skill position depth in 2021 and beyond.
Can we also get one of people that want us to keep our picks and people that say BB sucks at drafting?
Yep, this pretty much says it all. The reason Watson likely won't want to come here is the exact same reason Brady wanted to leave - there are other opportunities that present a shorter-term path to legitimate Super Bowl contention.
Now that BB and his scouting system are prevalent across the league, that more offensive systems are in place, and honestly to stop bleeding words... there are fewer inefficiencies.
The Pats are going to need an upgrade at WR no matter who they get at QB so I would hope that they'll be very aggressive in FA regardless of any Watson/Stafford plans.
Yes these are problems.
Plus, living in Florida instead of cold New England. That may come into play too. Unless he really prefers the Jets, in which case he needs to have his head examined.
Yes exactly — as I said above, there are any number of off-field reasons Miami is likely more appealing to a young superstar than Boston in a vacuum (Florida doesn’t have state income tax, Miami is one of the top worldwide nightlife destinations, he grew up in Georgia and would be closer to home, etc.)
Yes, probably, because it would mean BB thinks he can contend in 2021 with Watson and, say, Will Fuller and Hunter Henry (and perhaps others). But I peg the likelihood of landing Watson at 15-20%, and I'm probably more optimistic than most. I mean, using a top 5 pick on a QB is great, until you pick Sam Darnold, Blake Bortles, Mitch Trubisky, Marcus Mariotta, Jameis Winston, Jared Goff, etc. Most of these guys aren't garbage, but they're not long-term answers.
I think this is not only possible but likely.
I could see them potentially taking a flyer on him as a backup on a short-term deal in a 3QB scenario where they have, say, Jimmy G or other stopgap vet, a rookie drafted in a lower round, and Mariota. But I certainly wouldn't want him starting for the Pats under any scenario other than their #1 QB is injured and whatever rookie they have isn't ready yet (what you might call the Brian Hoyer situation).
Jimmy G wouldn't be part of the deal to Houston. SF would trade him separately to recoup some of the lost draft capital that they sent to Houston for Watson. Given his recent injury history and the lack of leverage they would have, the return would probably be pretty minimal though.
Houston literally has no QBs under contract if they trade Watson, so I think they have to either get a QB back or a pick high enough that they can draft a QB.
Taylor is a good consideration in the bridge QB category, if they bring in a Jamie Newman to develop. Could justify a two year deal. Taylor is legendarily careful with the ball (to the point of taking more sacks than you’d prefer) and also has a rep as a hard-working/low-ego teammate.
I agree with the overall point; having a Hall of Fame QB covers up a lot of holes. But if you remove the QB from consideration, this season's roster was probably the worst one Bill had to work with in a long time. Probably as bad as the 2000 team, and definitely worse than the 2002 team that missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record.
I think if they are signing a short-term vet as a bridge, either to a one-year or two-year deal, I would want Fitzmagic. You would have to think he'd be cheap, plus he'd already have pretty good knowledge of the division.
They *do* need a WR upgrade, but I think even an average-ly accurate, field-scanning QB with last year's receivers would have made the passing offense quite a bit better. In the last 6 weeks, I've wtached QB's from Heinicke to Henne drop throws right into the basket that Newton almost *never* made in 2020. No to mention the not-well thrown completions that cost YAC week after week.
The people taking joy at dunking on Belichick right now (cough, cough, Rex Ryan, cough, cough, Shank) really need to go back and watch the 2001 Super Bowl against the Rams, or the 2003 AFCCG against the Colts, the 2004 AFCCG against the Steelers (a team that destroyed them in the regular season) or the final Super Bowl against the Rams. Or read the comments about how the team practiced the exact goal line play with Malcolm Butler prior to the Super Bowl, or how the players said they were still going strong in the track meet agains the Falcons and felt that all that hill work helped them make the necessary plays in the 2nd half.
Certainly. It's not like they don't have any good WRs. Guys like Edelman, Meyers, Harry, Byrd are all capable secondary options so I don't think they need a complete overhaul or anything. But they really need that #1 or #1B type, especially since they are now without anyone you need to worry about at TE. Adding a guy like Robinson would potentially transform this passing game (assuming we actually have a functional QB).
