The first point negates the second. It doesn’t matter how much a team can offer if it’s not on Watson’s approved list. As my father used to love to say “the first recipe of rabbit stew is catch the rabbit.” If all of the Pats’ moves this week change Watson’s opinion about coming here, then you’ve caught the rabbit and can now think about the rest of the recipe, namely how to make an offer Houston wants.
Only if they were accompanied by our 1sts in 2022-2024, maybe not even then.
I would guess that the Pats would end up on the list, as would a number of other teams. But the 2nd is the key one. If the Texans were willing to just give him away, they'd have done it by now, I would guess that they have gotten at least 1 offer better than anything we can put forward by now. And if Watson really wants out of HOU he's not going to limit his market to one team with substandard assets to trade.
I think people are really overestimating the cost of Watson. You think the 15th overall, 3 other firsts, and like 10 picks in this draft is still not enough to do it?
Watson is great, obviously, but he's not so great as to be better than any QB teams with top picks could hope to draft. I think (hope?) you might be right. If you have a top 3 pick, you might be thinking you could draft a QB as good as Watson, and you could pay him way less for the same amount of years, plus save your other picks to give him more weapons. Watson is amazing, but not so amazing that a team would obviously want to trade everything for the right to pay him his contract
2 firsts expected to be in the bottom half of the round plus a mid round pick gets you Jamal Adams or Jalen Ramsey and the right to pay them a top of the market contract or let them walk in a year. This is Deshaun Freaking Watson, a 25 year old All-Pro caliber QB on what is now a slightly below market deal for an acquiring team ($146mn over 5 years through his age 30 season). If you were to redraft the NFL tomorrow the only name that would definitely get called ahead of his is Mahomes. Contract considered, maybe Herbert or Trevor Lawrence would go ahead of him? But even then, you're talking elite QB prospect on a rookie deal that a package of 15 + 46 + late-1st and 2nd in '22 doesn't get you if past trades for top QB prospects are any indication (Wentz pick plus a 4th in '17 went for 8 + 77 + 100 + a 2017 1st and a 2018 2nd... 15/46 doesn't get you to #8 alone on most draft value charts; Goff pick + 133 + 177 went for 15 + 43 + 45 + 76 + a 2017 first and third... and worth noting the Rams off a 7-9 season adding a rookie QB were not expected to be picking in the 20s the next season; RG3 pick was traded for 6 + 39 + 2013 1st + 2014 1st). Texans management would rightly be run out of town if they traded Watson for 2 or even 3 Pats first round picks and I wouldn't call anyone thinking Caserio was an embedded Pats asset in Houston crazy.
+1 to this. I don't think I'd take Herbert or Lawrence ahead of Watson. Watson is elite, young, on an average deal, and can immediately put a number of teams into SB contention. I can't think of many assets more highly prized than this in recent NFL history.
Trades aren't cumulative like that though. A team doesn't want some quarters a dime a nickle and 8 pennies. They'd rather have 1 dollar and some quarters.
I've stated since the season ended last year that I believe Cam will be the starting QB this season. So, I agree. But the people thinking trades work as a sliding scale arent being realistic.
I feel like you need an elite pass rush (see 2015-16 Broncos) to pull this off. Judon is an OK start to this, but need more there. Hope Bill knows that too
I don't think anyone is saying Watson should get traded for a decade's worth of first round picks, just that the draft capital the Pats are working with doesn't come close to matching the price Watson should command. The Pats 1st and 2nd rounders the next two drafts hardly adds up to what has been traded for top QB prospects in recent years, and it's hardly a stretch to expect a team or teams in position to offer a more attractive package will offer more for a 25 years old superstar on a below market deal for the next 5 years. If the cost is 15 + 46 + 2 low firsts in '22 and '23, Miami has that offer beat with 3 + 18 alone.
You keep saying this, but there is zero indication it is true. HOU has been quite clear they won't trade him, we haven't seen anything to suggest that they are shopping him but having difficulty getting top picks.
Gold is $1,740 per ounce, 16 ounce per pound, 220 lbs per Deshaun Watson = $6,124,800
Look, I get it and I agree with most everything you say. It’s insane to trade a talent/asset ilike Watson (and I’m going to ignore the new lawsuit for the moment), and it’s unprecedented but it’s here and Watson‘s holding a gun to management‘s head. Sit him out? Fine - he‘ll take off a season where COVID may still linger, he has FU money, and he hates management. The Pats can’t offer the high pick and are stuck offering volume.
Bend but don’t break, make them run lots of short plays, work the turnovers...
I think I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. Watson is a tricky valuation because he is sui generis so there really aren't any good comps. The closest comps as starting points are the top-end players, in their prime, who got traded (e.g.. Tunsil or Mack) or the top-3 level draft picks, who were acquired in order to pick a QB. In the case of the former, you would then need to account for positional value, perhaps using franchise tag pricing as a quantifiable multiple. In the case of the latter, you would need to take a stab at valuing the known star vs the unknown future, while also factoring in short-term salary differences.
Kellen Mond from Texas A&M is your guy if you’re looking for a potential Cam replacement/understudy.
or Jamie Newman, he's got a lot of Cam's game with his size and arm, and some of his weaknesses in processing and footwork.
This is what I tried to explain multiple times in the Miami thread. Whatever you think their asking price will be, it’s higher. Much higher. Not two firsts and one next year. Not Tua and a few firsts.
You also have to remember that Chicago's best pick is #20. There is no path to a starting QB for Seattle in that deal. Pete is 70 years old, he's not committing to 2+ years in the wilderness, looking for a QB.
That might be their asking price but at the end of the day their threat to keep Watson is not credible at all. By every appearance, the relationship is not reparable and they're not going to pass up the opportunity to kickstart rebuilding their team just to make a point. Having him sit out the year while the team gets no compensation is a disaster. Having him grudgingly play to get his money in a poisonous locker room having already made it clear that he wants no part of the organization is somewhat less of a disaster but still an awful outcome. Unless Watson has some big come to Jesus moment in the next couple months, they are going to end up trading him and its really just a question of what the high bid looks like.
Right. Watson sits out a year, he’s still a 26 year old franchise QB that teams will line up to get.
Exactly.
Also, it would let them roll cap space into next year, and likely get a nice high pick because that team isn't winning much with Tyrod.
Agree completely, but the starting point from #15 isn't all that much better. The difference in value between 15 and 20 is a late-3rd/early-4th.
That is a disaster outcome for the Texans.
No, that's why I don't think the Patriots could get in that mix either. But if a team had a top 4 pick this year, my guess is the calculus would change a lot.
If he sits out what happens with the contract? One of the many things that makes Watson desirable is that he has a very team friendly deal this season (and then it starts to escalate in the upcoming years).
The Texans are not going to worry about the bad press headlines about Watson being unhappy with how their coaching search went. They can easily hold a hard line here with regards to the value coming back to them in any Watson trade. Yeah, fans will grumble if Watson is sitting out to start the season, but so what? Teams always get a longer leash from their fans than we appreciate sometimes.
If he doesn't play the contract doesn't toll, so you get that cheap 15M year next year.
I think you're wrong about all of this. Teams do worry about bad press, especially right now when they've taken big hits from Covid and have to think about filling the stadium and selling merchandise next year. And the Texans have already endured a ton of bad press. Having Watson sit out an entire season while they go 1-15 in front of a half empty stadium and get slammed by the local media every day for the next year, all to just see whether you get an offer slightly better than the one you received this offseason, just isn't an attractive option at all.
Yeah, you treat a popular player like Watson like trash and good luck signing anyone of significance in FA without a material overpay. The Texans need to move on here. Negotiate the best possible package, make suitors sweat it out a bit, but you ultimately have to relent and move on and get the rebuilding process started. Playing a game of chicken with your star QB just won't work. The wedge will only grow and the rebuilding process will be delayed.
