In a 3-4, who can they find to be the mountain in the middle NT? I think Guy could be a 3-4 end in the mode of Ty Warren, but who is the Vince Wilfork or Ted Washington?
Pats Roster Planning: Defense
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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There are three guys in the draft this year that could potentially be that guy. Slaton out of Florida will be there later day 3. He has the body and size but he is still learning to play the position. I wasn’t impressed with the one game I have of him on tape.
Tyler Shelvin out of LSU is a monster vs the run. Double teams don’t move him. He is the Brute Squad.
Rare footage of Tyler Shelvin:
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View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmJ2GVOEVFI
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The problem with Shelvin is all he offers you are great rhymes and stuffing the run. He gives you next to nothing for pass rush.
My guy here is Alim McNeill. He played at 345 last year and looked explosive. He is down to 325. He can hold up on double teams but needs refinement with how he engages defenders to not get washed. He is also explosive. I think Bill is going to like him. He has pass rushing potential and is athletic. I can't wait to see his pro-day as he will be testing at 320-325 not 345.
Free agency wise the biggest and best name (and IMO the best fit) is Dalvin Tomlinson. I love Tomlinson. He is a force as a 0-1 tech. If I were Bill I would start my DL rebuild with him. He can play in a 4-3 or 3-4. He can 2-gap or be a penetrator.
Want to bring up something @Super Nomario said yesterday which I think is important. Is there overlap between Uche and Ojulari and wouldn't Zaven Collins give you more complimentary skills. And I think the answer to that is yes there is overlap and yes Collins is more incrementally complimentary. However, I see Uche and Ojulari as doing two different roles. Basically Ojulari and Uche don't have to play the same position, I think Uche does more of the Jamie Collins role while Ojulari is more of the KVN type. I like Ojulari more in run fits because he can set an edge while Uche might not ever be that guy. So they are not redundant but they have some skill overlap as well as body size and type overlap. Zaven Collins though is a completely different beast. He is more of a prototypical Patriots ILB who can also, like Hightower, can play on the line as an edge or an interior rusher in a NASCAR front. He's about 260 but has sideline to sideline speed and can cover too. I love Ojulari and Collins fits here in New England. If Bill wants to invest in the front 7 via the draft those are the two guys I would look at first.
Rousseau and Paye are great names but more 4-3 base types or 4-2-5s. If Bill wants to shift his types back to a 4-3 either of these two players would or could be a great add. Paye is a tough eval. The way Michigan used him is probably not how he would be used in the NFL. He was playing too close to the OT. I think Paye could be a 5-tech but I would prefer him to play outside, like a 7-tech, where his length, burst, and power will be harder for OTs to deal with.
Jalaen Phillips is another great fit for the 3-4 or 3-3-5 out of Miami as a 3-4 OLB/Edge type who has the athleticism to play in space or do off-ball stuff but the problem is he is one concussion away from retiring from football... again. Think top 10-15 kind of talent but UDFA level of health/medicals/head-injuries. Heard he has some off-field baggage too.
Thanks for the extensive and detailed answer to my initial query.
Follow-up: do you think that the Pats would be better off in 2021 with a 3-4 or a 4-3 as the base D, especially recognizing that "base D" is almost always Nickel nowadays, so the question is more 3-3 or 4-2? In asking the question, I am guessing that there are a few pieces that go into it:
- Skillsets of current personnel
- Skillsets of available personnel (covered in some sense by your answer above, at least vis a vis 3-4)
- Larger strategic analysis of one system over the other in today's NFL.
I'd have zero qualms about spending 2 early picks on front 7 if a QB trade doesn't materialize. Pats were 7th worst in rushing yards allowed and tied for 6th worst in sacks. Interestingly, they led the league in hurries and hurry % so it seems like they're getting close but not quite getting home. End of the day, this team will need to win with defense and the secondary should be solid again so if you can strengthen the DL/LB, you have the makings of a pretty good defense, especially if guys like Uche, Dugger, and Wino continue to improve.
Tough call. You could go either way given the like handful of guys under contract. With Jennings, Wino, Uche, Hall, Hightower, you are probably better off in a 3-3-5 base or 3-4 but you could just as easily play Jennings in a 4-3 as an edge. I also think there are slightly more teams who run a 4-2-5 or 4-3 kind of a base so 3-4 types are somewhat easier to find (although finding someone who is a versatile 3-4 OLB is tough because you need a high level of athleticism to be able to do all of those roles). I am not sure there is a good answer to this.
FA wise there are guys for both but you have to pay to play for a true 3-down 3-4 OLB.
They are going to want to have a mix of guys so that they can do 4-3 or 3-4 things however we will see where BB allocates his capital (and even when they can do both they still have a preferred base). We should have a good idea of what he is looking to do before the draft.
Question for people who know more about this than me: it would seem like a high hurry/low sack rate would indicate that QBs are getting rid of the ball before the pressure gets home, which would in turn suggest that the weak link is the secondary (otherwise, where would the QBU throw?). But most accounts have the secondary as the strongest unit on last year's team, or at least up there with the OL. What am I missing here?
Logical conclusion is that the hurry rate statistic doesn’t measure how long it takes the pass rush to approach the QB and/or the assessment of what is/is not a ‘hurry’ is just unreliable.
ESPN’s NextGen stats has the Pats as second to last in pass rush win rate during 2020, which ESPN define as ‘how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds.’ That passes the sniff test more than that ‘hurry rate’ statistic.
No way the secondary was the defense’s weak link, the tape belies that notion in a big way.
ESPN’s NextGen stats has the Pats as second to last in pass rush win rate during 2020, which ESPN define as ‘how often a pass-rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds.’ That passes the sniff test more than that ‘hurry rate’ statistic.
No way the secondary was the defense’s weak link, the tape belies that notion in a big way.
I'd have to see other stats (like time to throw) to know more, but remember hurries include any time the QB is moved in the pocket. So if you have good coverage, then the QB rolls away from weak pressure, that counts as a hurry even if it take him a long time to get rid of the ball.
Our dearth of hits and sacks, and our low Y/A allowed make me think that we are seeing very good back end coverage, QBs holding it, then a lot of passes underneath to back and TEs, rather than quick pressure averted by quick throws. This backed up by the low QB rating, but high CMP%, and as mentioned above things like win rate.
Basically, our secondary is very good, and it would have looked even better if not for our front 7 being poor.
I don't think you can make that inference. Maybe the high hurry rate is because there's great coverage and the DL/LB are only good enough to get pressure and not execute a sack. Maybe it's because the pats played a ton of mobile qbs. And maybe it's just noise--every hurry is close to being a sack and vice versa and sometimes the numbers just come out a little funny.
I think hit rate is a much better indicator of pressure, right? Sacks don't always correlate with hits, but isn't it true that over time there tends to be a regression to the mean? I forget the number but 1 out of every X hits should result in a sack. Say that number is 5 - so 20% of hits result in sacks overall. If an edge player has 60 hurries in a season, they'd be expected to register ~12 sacks on average. So if a guy has 60 hits but only 6 sacks, you'd expect that sack number to improve the following year if the hits stay the same. Kind of like how BABIP tends to regress toward .300
A LOT has changed since then, both with the Patriots QB situation AND Humphries's career trajectory, but at the time one of the reasons Humphries stated as to why he chose the Titans over the Patriots is that he wasn't sure how long Brady would remain their QB.
There hasn’t been much talk — either here or elsewhere— about Edelman’s role next year. Do people think he gets cut or traded? Or will he be back for another run with the Pats?
Only $2.67M cap hit if he’s cut/traded before 6/1 and like $3.5M in potential savings. Not really an extension candidate due to his age so my hunch is he stays one last year unless he quietly asks for a trade, which I think they would accommodate.
Yeah. Assuming he's healthy, that savings won't cover a replacement.
I would assume a guy like Humphries, who essentially busted in Tennessee, is no longer quite as picky. If he's cheap, fine. But that's not where they should really allocate resources unless Edelman is leaving.
My biggest concern with Edelman is whether he'll be able to contribute at all. He missed most of last season after having a minor procedure on his knee, and will be 35 next season, which is not a good age for wide receivers. Wouldn't surprise me if he's cut in camp, or ends up on PUP/IR for most of the season.
These two posts are essentially what I was thinking. It seems to me that one thing that this offense needed desperately last year, and something they have had at a high level since Troy Brown's hey-day, is a slot receiver to move the chains.
In 2021, maybe that's Edelman. Maybe. But as lexrageorge noted, there are plenty of red flags there. So if it's not Edelman, who? Maybe Humphries. Maybe someone else?
Regardless of QB, if the Pats can restock TE, slot WR, and pass-catching running back (be that a re-signed James White or someone else), it will help this offense improve a lot.
Doesn't appear to be too many slot WR options in FA so Edelman is probably the favorite but if we move on from him, Samuel would be my choice. He can do a bit of everything and is right about to enter his prime. Won't come cheap though.
That's awesome. Cannon may not ultimately be on the roster, but Hightower and Chung are going to be key additions.
Hightower is the only one in that group that means anything to the team's 2021 chances. Chung was in decline even before he took a year off, I can't see him being on the field next year ahead of Dugger.
Hopefully just a little clickbait from RapSheet, but his report on Edelman doesn't sound like his return is at all a sure thing.
View: https://twitter.com/MarkDanielsPJ/status/1365389419000303620
Chung being there means Dugger can really be used to more of his strengths. Chung is better in coverage than Dugger. Dugger can now play up towards the line of scrimmage more often.
Completely agree with you. Dugger being NEP version of Jamal Adams but even more athletic. Not disagreeing with you but coverage was probably Dugger’s biggest adjustment coming out so it’s not inconceivable he actually makes a year 2 leap and gets better there. Wouldn’t that be cool?
And if not going big nickel with DMC/Chung/Dugger gives you a good amount on run defense.
Don’t forget Phillips who was pretty good last year too. Safety will be a position of strength.
Should be one of the better groups on the roster.
Roster construction wise they eventually need to draft a DMC successor. I haven’t really done safeties in this draft class yet. It’s one of the better positions in FA too. You wonder if they get a guy a year early there especially if that guy can also play some corner either outside or slot.
Quick edit: you like any of the 2021 draft class for FS of the future?
I wonder why you think that about Cannon; I assume it is contract-related. He seems like he could be a helpful addition to the line. OTOH, he carries a $9.6M cap hit if he stays with his contract as is, but only a $2.6M dead cap hit, so $7M in savings. His contract currently has two years left ($9.6M cap in 2021; dropping to $6.35M in 2022).
That cap hit for 2021 ranks him 10th among all RT's currently signed. Seems about in line with his talent level.
He's 32, but he's only played 115 games across 10 seasons so the mileage isn't too bad.
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Chung, OTOH, has a nightmare of a contract with an $8M hit if cut, vs only $5.1M if he plays. 2022 gets better, but dead cap vs active cap is still close to equivalent.
His 2021 (active) cap hit also ranks him 10th among all SS's currently signed.
Phillips meanwhile sits at $3.5M and Dugger at $1.8M
His 2021 (active) cap hit also ranks him 10th among all SS's currently signed.
Phillips meanwhile sits at $3.5M and Dugger at $1.8M
Yeah, I like Chung but really was perplexed by that extension given his age. He’ll be 34 in August. Could easily he dead weight soon. The team had to be secretly annoyed that he opted out. I can’t imagine he has much left.
The Chung extension was mind boggling considering his age and the fact that he is on the back nine. That is one contract BB should be regretting as he should have never given him that.
I think that about Cannon because of not only the contract, but the fact that depending on what direction Belichick wants to go he can start Onwenu at RT on a rookie contract versus paying Cannon what he's owed and the production level won't dip and probably will be better. Now, that does not mean Cannon can't come back on a reduced number, Thuney leaves, and Big Mike slots in at LG.
Fortunately, Chung is still a pretty good player. Not as good as he was, but a useful piece.
Jevon Holland is my guy at safety. He is versatile enough to play either FS or slot corner, but I think ultimately safety is where he'll fall into in the NFL. He will be undervalued because he sat out this year. I think they could grab him on Day 2.
KVN a cap casualty?
From Cameron Wolfe
Dolphins LB Kyle Van Noy is a potential cap casualty who could be released before league year begins, source tells ESPN. Talks are ongoing about releasing Van Noy in the coming days, a move that'd save Miami $9.75M in cap space. Andrew Van Ginkel would move into larger role.
edit:
PFT confirms it has happened
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/02/report-dolphins-tell-kyle-van-noy-hell-be-released/
From Cameron Wolfe
Dolphins LB Kyle Van Noy is a potential cap casualty who could be released before league year begins, source tells ESPN. Talks are ongoing about releasing Van Noy in the coming days, a move that'd save Miami $9.75M in cap space. Andrew Van Ginkel would move into larger role.
edit:
PFT confirms it has happened
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/02/report-dolphins-tell-kyle-van-noy-hell-be-released/
Interesting. Miami took a $4.1M dead cap hit on this one. About to turn 30 so probably has some solid play remaining.
Reminds me to a degree of Jamie Collins. Pats got great play from Collins with little pay. They let other teams pay him. Same with Van Noy. Bring him back.
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Agreed. Wouldn't make him a priority but I would absolutely bring him back at a modest price. Adding back High and KVN to the young'ns would make me pretty excited about the LB group. And would be pretty nice to get a 4th round comp pick for 1 lost year.
Do this + draft a guy like Charles Snowden day 3 and give him a year to put on more weight and develop = winning. Pretty sure @EL Jeffe would support drafting Snowden too! Please come back KVN, team could an OLB/Edge hybrid guy who can set an actual edge.
That's a pretty solid move by Miami. A little pricey overall, but they brought in a guy who espouses the way Flores wants to play. Gets a year's production and mentorship out of Van Noy. Releases him and sends message that there are no sacred cows and carves out some cap space.
And another indication that NFL teams with no cap space will be making it rain for the teams that do. Potentially great bridge player for New England.
And another indication that NFL teams with no cap space will be making it rain for the teams that do. Potentially great bridge player for New England.
I dunno, they paid him $15M for one year and are going to have to absorb over $4m in dead cap space in a year in which the cap is lower.
I get this from the Patriots perspective ... but why would Van Noy automatically decide to go back to the Patriots? There'll have to be other teams interest, no?
And that's if the Dolphins don't get a low draft pick for him before he's released.
And that's if the Dolphins don't get a low draft pick for him before he's released.
There will definitely be other teams interested. My guess is the money from the Pats would have to be comparable. One advantage the Pats have is that KVN knows the system and knows he can succeed in it. Patrick Chung can attest to the value of that for a player like KVN who’s about to be 30.
Oh, I get it ... but players have a funny way of going places you wouldn't expect sometimes.
I don't think they knew at the time that the cap would be lower when they made the deal, but I could be wrong. I agree it's a lot of money at a bad time, but it was only money. Flores needs to create a culture there in his image as soon as possible. KVN was, I think, a good shortcut to take. Pulling off the bandaid now after getting something akin to expected production isn't a bad trade-off. If he was expecting KVN to go pro-bowler for 3 years, then, yeah, it was a bad deal.