BAILEY ZAPPE’S FUTURE AS A STARTER
AFC personnel exec: Selling
The
New England Patriots are 2-0 with rookie Bailey Zappe as their starting quarterback, and head coach Bill Belichick isn’t guaranteeing, at least publicly, that
Mac Jones will get his job back when healthy.
That seems to be a message for Jones to not get complacent in his recovery from a high ankle sprain. Even if there’s not an actual quarterback competition in New England, it’s best if Jones believes there is, since competition is always a good thing at any position.
The Patriots were 1-2 with Jones at the helm this season. They also lost a game against the
Green Bay Packers in overtime that
Brian Hoyer started but left in the first quarter with a concussion, giving way to Zappe.
The rookie currently leads the NFL in passer rating (111.4). He’s 12th among qualified quarterbacks with a 72.7 offensive grade and eighth with a 77.0 passing grade. His 81.8% adjusted completion percentage ranks second, and he’s tied with Daniel Jones as PFF’s highest-graded passer using play action, with a 91.9 mark. He has the second-lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL, behind only the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘
Tom Brady.
Overall, he’s been one of the most surprising stories in the NFL. It came as a shock that he was selected as high as he was in the 2022 NFL Draft, one round before the
Washington Commanders picked
Sam Howell.
But the Patriots have also played it safe with Zappe.
- His 18.4% screen rate is second-highest among quarterbacks.
- He hasn’t been charted with a single big-time throw.
- His 6.7-yard average depth of target is fourth-lowest in the league, and his 8.6% deep-ball percentage ranks sixth-lowest in the NFL.
- The Patriots have used play-action on 31.6% of his dropbacks.
Meanwhile, Mac Jones ranks 32nd in screen rate at the position. He has the second-highest big-time throw rate and the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL. His 10.4% ADOT ranks second behind
Jameis Winston, and he’s attempted the highest percentage of deep balls in the NFL, at a 20.6% clip. New England used play action on only 10.8% of his dropbacks.
Jones came out swinging this season, proving he wasn’t going to dink and dunk like he did as a rookie, and the results were mixed. Zappe has played the safe approach and won.
New England is tailoring its offense to make it palatable for Zappe, and the team has been pleased with his progress. They believe he’s settled in over the last 2.5 games and is starting to let his talent show.
But they could also make things a little easier on Jones once he returns by leaning more heavily on play action and screens. And he could take fewer risks. New England is 28th in RPO rate so far this season, as well.
A high-ranking AFC personnel executive believes New England’s fourth-round investment in Zappe will eventually pay off.
“I think they trick someone into a draft pick for him,” he said. “I think he’s smart, consistent and runs the offense well. He’s not a real guy, in my opinion.”
Zappe is in the first year of a four-year rookie contract, and he’s cheap and valuable depth. So, a trade is likely years away anyway.
Another source actually compared Zappe to former
Green Bay Packers quarterback Matt Flynn, who played well in reserve for
Aaron Rodgers back in 2011 and signed a three-year, $20.5 million contract with the
Seattle Seahawks in 2012. It would not be shocking to see Zappe get other starting opportunities, even if that doesn’t come with New England.
Jones was close enough to play this week to at least make the trip to Cleveland. It’s tough to turn away from Zappe after he’s led New England to a 2-0 record, but the Patriots also invested a top-15 pick in Jones a year ago, and he was far and away the NFL’s best rookie quarterback in 2021 while playing a similar style as Zappe with a higher play-action rate, lower big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates, a more shallow ADOT, limited deep-ball attempts and more screens.
The biggest lesson here is that more NFL teams should take the Patriots’ approach to drafting quarterbacks even when they’re not needed. They’ve traded
Jimmy Garoppolo,
Jacoby Brissett and
Jarrett Stidham over the past five years, and Zappe could be the next quarterback dealt as long as he doesn’t permanently take Jones’ job.