Pats select Western Kentucky QB Bailey Zappe at 137

Curt S Loew

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I think it's unlikely Zappe is "the guy", I think he just lacks the arm talent to be a top end starter. HOWEVER... I do think there is a small chance that Bill goes back to Mac when he's healthy and Bill ends up after the season deciding neither Zappe nor Mac is the guy, and as such makes a Mac trade because if you're going to not have "the guy" you are probably better off cashing in on the chance someone else sees him differently and moving on with your "can get the job done" backup while you look for "the guy"
So who's the starting QB? Testaverde?
 

Ralphwiggum

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But the regression isn't just the first three games this year - he's on about a 8-10 game regression. He was really good for 2/3 of the season and then fell off and then started this season very poorly.
Ok, but I'm not sure that changes much of anything in terms of the argument for Mac. I'm not advocating for either guy really, I trust Bill. But despite the Lombardi report and Zappe's performance the last two games I don't think anyone should be surprised if Mac gets his job back when he's healthy.
 

Pandemonium67

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I don't think anybody should be surprised by whatever BB decides. Mac has more experience in the system, has shown he can win, and hasn't reached his ceiling yet. BZ has looked really good in his brief tenure, has shown he can win, and hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Where they were drafted is a non-factor. Salary and tradeability are small factors that I doubt BB will consider; he'll want to keep both.

One interesting factor is how BB will weigh the present versus the near future and longer future -- i.e., who's better positioned to win right now, this season, and in future seasons.
 

Garshaparra

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Where they were drafted is a non-factor. Salary and tradeability are small factors that I doubt BB will consider; he'll want to keep both.
If anything, Zappe has a small advantage here. As a 1st rounder, Mac's got 3 more years at very reasonable rates, but that 5th year option is a league-set value. Reviewing the numbers cited here , Mac would be due a 1 year guarantee of around $33M, and that's assuming he doesn't make another Pro Bowl. The figure cited for this year is $27M for QBs with one Pro Bowl appearance, and that's Mac. I'm figuring salary continues to grow, and a bump from the $27M a QB would get today is about 20% more, and honestly, that may be low. Obviously, neither gets traded for another year, but in the 23-24 offseason, they'll have some real mulling to do. What a nice thing to have to worry about though.
 

DJnVa

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But the regression isn't just the first three games this year - he's on about a 8-10 game regression. He was really good for 2/3 of the season and then fell off and then started this season very poorly.
That's really not what happened though. It just depends where you put that game against Cleveland (19/23, 198 yards, 3/0 TD/INT). If we take that game out of equation, he was 89.8 in first 9 and 89.8 in last 7
 
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I'm not entirely sure they wouldn't trade one of them if they got a great offer, assuming they think the other is the guy. Maybe not, but it might be tough to turn down a great offer considering how much value it could provide in building the rest of the roster. I know BB didn't want to trade Jimmy G, but he had no idea Brady would age so well at that time. He had no issues trading Bledsoe once he was sure Brady was the guy. (Of course, Bledsoe also had a huge salary and that was a factor.)
 

rodderick

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That's really not what happened though. It just depends where you put that game against Cleveland (19/23, 198 yards, 3/0 TD/INT). If we take that game out of equation, he was 89.8 in first 9 and 89.8 in last 7
It is what happened. Starting with the first game against the Bills in Week 13 of last year, he's made 9 starts, with 10 TDs and 12 INTs and a passer rating in the mid 70s, including playoffs. He was okay the first five weeks, fantastic from the Dallas game up until the the Tennessee game, and below average ever since.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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With Zappe at the helm, how many first rounders could we get for Jones: 3, 4, or more?
Let's trade Mac to the 49ers for 3 first rounders and a third rounder!

In all seriousness, it's probably worth continuing to roster both QB's. They're both young and cost-controlled, and neither are built like tanks to withstand the ferocity of opposing defensive linemen and linebackers. And Isaiah Wynn is still here, waiting with bated breath to get one of his QB's destroyed.
You're recertified!
 

djbayko

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I wasn't around for the Bledsoe/Brady controversy, but I understand the emotional attachment people had to Drew, I don't really get why so many fans just seem to love Mac Jones. The Patriots subreddit in particular talks of the guy as if he had led the team to 8 Super Bowls. What am I missing here? Sure, there's a significant chance Mac comes back as a starter, plays well, and makes this Zappe discussion seem silly in hindsight, but I don't think he's shown enough to make me be so protective of him as a fan. I think his skillset is perfectly comparable to Zappe's.
From what I’ve seen, the subreddit is very fanboyish, isn’t it? That’s one reason I don’t bother visiting it. I don’t think it should be surprising that people there are salivating over a player who was a high draft pick and has shown promise (was possibly ROY if Chase didn’t have an absolute monster game at end of season to break multiple records).
 

Arroyoyo

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Dec 13, 2021
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Another Zappe film breakdown...this one from Kurt Warner.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6ZrCNMVuRU
I was just going to share this. It’s a pretty great breakdown and confirmation of Zappe seeing the field well, processing coverages very fast, and knowing pre-snap what to expect from the defense (especially LBs and safeties).

At 22:55 you really see how quickly Zappe works through his progression. It’s kind of crazy for a rookie to not try to force that throw on the rub route, which often ends up in a pick. Zappe moved on from that read super quick for the TD over the middle.

Warner is excited about Zappe, and honestly so am I. This kid knows how to play the position.

Yes, the offense has been “simplified,” but he understands what’s happening on the field. He can read coverages very well. 11:15 is another great example of this; the pass is incomplete, but he quickly identifies press coverage jamming both routes to the right so he attempts to throw his receiver open to the left.
 

johnmd20

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Warner is excited about Zappe, and honestly so am I. This kid knows how to play the position.
I know it was Western Kentucky and all but his college stats are comically incredible. You don't throw for 6000 yards in 14 games if you don't have the ability to perform.

I love Zappe. I am not done with Mac but he's been playing for over a year now and he's been decent to fine. But his arm is a noodle relative to what is required. But Zappe also beat up on Detroit and Cleveland. You couldn't have two better teams to start your career against.

But I want more Zappe. I would love to see how he would do against the Bears. But he might not play. Zap zap zap.
 

brandonchristensen

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I know it was Western Kentucky and all but his college stats are comically incredible. You don't throw for 6000 yards in 14 games if you don't have the ability to perform.

I love Zappe. I am not done with Mac but he's been playing for over a year now and he's been decent to fine. But his arm is a noodle relative to what is required. But Zappe also beat up on Detroit and Cleveland. You couldn't have two better teams to start your career against.

But I want more Zappe. I would love to see how he would do against the Bears. But he might not play. Zap zap zap.
Feels like one more Zappe would be ideal. Sucks for Mac, but it is what it is. Play the hot hand.

The season, IMO, was done when Mac went out - don't boot the guy that gave the team life. Not yet.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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Are people still under the impression that there’s a chance Zappe will play Monday? From what I’ve read about the practice reps and who Mac took them with, those chances are slim and none and slim just left town.