Pats sign TE Jonnu Smith

[EL Jeffe]

Jonnu was obviously severely disappointing relative to the contract he signed, but I wouldn't say NE didn't scheme for him. Almost all of his touches were manufactured ones; almost none came within the flow of the offense. But 5 years in, at some point you just have to say this is who Jonnu is. He's had a couple of 400 yard seasons as his high water mark. He's never been a productive NFL weapon. NE obviously bet on the physical traits with the hopes there was more meat on the bone, but that's looking like a really bad bet at this point.

 

[Super Nomario]

The Jonu and Henry transactions only work if those guys are able to play well together a lot -- you'd want maybe half of your snaps to be in 12 or heavier formations if you're paying two TEs top of the market money. In his first year it was pretty clear that Smith didn't have the confidence of the coaching staff or Jones that he'd crisply get to the right place at the right time on a route despite his reasonably good quickness and speed for his size so they didn't get him into routes as much. (I'd say Jones comfort level with Myers and Bourne probably hurt Smith a bit because if the kid liks plays 11 more than 12, well, you got to play more 11).

Per Sharp Football Stats, the Pats ran 12 personnel on 49% of snaps Week 1, but not more than 25% after that, and they actually ran it less (14%) than the average team (21%) for the season. That's amazing given Henry and Smith were both healthy.

I think the biggest problem is they thought they signed a Gronk and a Hernandez, but they really signed two Hernandezes. Henry is a big guy but not a great blocker; Smith is a decent blocker but he's undersized for an inline guy. Either would be better playing more HBack / slot and less inline, but one of them has to do the inline stuff. I think Smith by default got stuck with it and didn't get as many pass-catching reps accordingly.

I have some skepticism that the tandem is going to work, and I concur with @EL Jeffe that Smith's production to date has been generally overstated. An optimistic view is that, since TE is such a complicated position (have to know all WR routes / adjustments and all the run- and pass- blocking schemes), it made sense to specialize these guys in Y1 and they'll open things up in Y2. I don't know that I buy that (especially since they didn't open anything up as the year went on), but it's a potential explanation.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't know that Jonnu will every be a top TE, but I do think next year they'll design more stuff to get him in space. He's always been known as a YAC guy, and his YAC/R was ridiculously good this year. I would guess that with basically all-new pass catchers and a rookie QB, implementing designed stuff for him wasn't a priority, but going into next year I would hope to see Josh making more plays designed to get him in space and let him work.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't know that Jonnu will every be a top TE, but I do think next year they'll design more stuff to get him in space. He's always been known as a YAC guy, and his YAC/R was ridiculously good this year. I would guess that with basically all-new pass catchers and a rookie QB, implementing designed stuff for him wasn't a priority, but going into next year I would hope to see Josh making more plays designed to get him in space and let him work.

The Patriots completed the 17th most passes in the NFL this year (so smack dab in the middle) with 364. But there's only one ball to go around. Those 364 are going to be divided up somehow. The Pats attempted the 25th most passes (535), so it's not like they tried to throw more but were unsuccessful. The ran 1052 plays on the year (61.9 per game), and the average team ran 1076 plays on the year (63.3 per game), so a little under one and a half more plays per game than the Patriots. Baltimore ran 1185 plays (most in the NFL), or 69.7 per game), so 8 more per game than the Pats.

So the Pats picked up a bunch of new players - Agholor, Bourne, Henry, and Jonnu, to go along with Stevenson as a draftee. Add them to their existing players in Meyers, Harry, Harris, Bolden, and White. You're going to divide up those touches between all those guys. If you spread it out evenly, nobody is going to have big numbers and we can say they were a "bust" or had a "down" year. If you give some guys a ton of touches, yay they had a big year, but other guys are going to look like they were completely unproductive.

It's ok for individual guys to have less personal production if their presence still helps the overall offense. You can't add all those new guys and reasonably expect that they would all be big producers. That's not how it works. Or if they were, then we'd be like, what the heck happened to Meyers and Harris?

And if White was available all year, these other guys' production would have been even "worse" because he'd have taken a bunch of those touches.

And yet the offense produced:

- The 15th most yards
- The 9th most first downs
- The 2nd most drives that resulted in a score
- The 9th most expected points
- The 6th most points scored

This isn't to say that everyone played well. And sometimes numbers do tell the story. But on the whole, the Patriots' offense was solid, and these guys all played a part in it being solid.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

And if White was available all year, these other guys' production would have been even "worse" because he'd have taken a bunch of those touches.

Or possibly better if White had helped extend more drives.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Or possibly better if White had helped extend more drives.

Also, if you have a really dynamic passing down back, who can block you might be more willing to open up the passing game. The Patriots were very run heavy by modern standards and quite conservative on 3rd/4th down.

 

[SMU_Sox]

@BaseballJones the Patriots offense was inconsistent this year but for the sake of the argument let's say they were fine/good/whatever because overall they ended up scoring the 6th most points based on your post.

So the Pats picked up a bunch of new players - Agholor, Bourne, Henry, and Jonnu, to go along with Stevenson as a draftee. Add them to their existing players in Meyers, Harry, Harris, Bolden, and White. You're going to divide up those touches between all those guys. If you spread it out evenly, nobody is going to have big numbers and we can say they were a "bust" or had a "down" year. If you give some guys a ton of touches, yay they had a big year, but other guys are going to look like they were completely unproductive.

It's ok for individual guys to have less personal production if their presence still helps the overall offense. You can't add all those new guys and reasonably expect that they would all be big producers. That's not how it works. Or if they were, then we'd be like, what the heck happened to Meyers and Harris?

This isn't to say that everyone played well. And sometimes numbers do tell the story. But on the whole, the Patriots' offense was solid, and these guys all played a part in it being solid.

Except he sucked as a blocker and he wasn't a good route runner.



He was a negative to the team this year in every facet of the game. What exactly did he do that would make you write off complaining about him with "well they can't all eat"? Sure, they can't all eat. But he wasn't exactly doing anything that would make you want to feed him. The only reason he has such high YAC is because he is getting the ball at the LOS or behind it. If they threw him deeper passes he wouldn't have that RAC. Oh and he isn't going to get those deeper targets because he isn't a reliable route runner. Although yeah I can think of a few deep corner routes he was open on but Mac got the ball out to a checkdown and missed him.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

This is pretty specific but it’s an important part of a TE route tree: I was disappointed at how bad he was on seam routes. He didn’t get separation and didn’t win a contested catch that I can recall.

He was effective on certain drag and jet sweep concepts, but not being able to threaten on intermediate/deep routes with seams and corners really limits his impact.

Just an utter fail of a season for him. I think it can certainly improve, but it would be surprising if he became a real difference maker - which he has never been in his career - in 2022. It sucks because his signing was a projection of perceived skill translating to value….but at a top of market rate/effective two year commitment. Not usually a mistake they make in FA.

 

[tims4wins]

This is pretty specific but it’s an important part of a TE route tree: I was disappointed at how bad he was on seam routes. He didn’t get separation and didn’t win a contested catch that I can recall.

He was effective on certain drag and jet sweep concepts, but not being able to threaten on intermediate/deep routes with seams and corners really limits his impact.

Just an utter fail of a season for him. I think it can certainly improve, but it would be surprising if he became a real difference maker - which he has never been in his career - in 2022. It sucks because his signing was a projection of perceived skill translating to value….but at a top of market rate/effective two year commitment. Not usually a mistake they make in FA.

I can't even recall an attempted seam to Jonnu. Would like to see his route chart for the season

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't know that Jonnu will every be a top TE, but I do think next year they'll design more stuff to get him in space. He's always been known as a YAC guy, and his YAC/R was ridiculously good this year. I would guess that with basically all-new pass catchers and a rookie QB, implementing designed stuff for him wasn't a priority, but going into next year I would hope to see Josh making more plays designed to get him in space and let him work.

I don't think they need to scheme more stuff for Jonnu. Jonnu needs to be able to run the basic TE routes and get open at a much better rate than he has been. The only times he got the ball were designed plays to get the ball in his hands in space. When he gets open, he also needs to be able to catch the football. They designed enough stuff for him but he did not get the job done.

 

[Cellar-Door]

This is pretty specific but it’s an important part of a TE route tree: I was disappointed at how bad he was on seam routes. He didn’t get separation and didn’t win a contested catch that I can recall.

He was effective on certain drag and jet sweep concepts, but not being able to threaten on intermediate/deep routes with seams and corners really limits his impact.

Just an utter fail of a season for him. I think it can certainly improve, but it would be surprising if he became a real difference maker - which he has never been in his career - in 2022. It sucks because his signing was a projection of perceived skill translating to value….but at a top of market rate/effective two year commitment. Not usually a mistake they make in FA.

I disagree on the YAC thing. He consistently graded out as an excellent YAC guy in TEN, and it wasn't just routes since Next Gen had his YAC/R over expected as the best in the league across 2019 and 2020 seasons. He's really good at running after the catch, he's not good at running good routes.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

The Patriots added a lot of new pieces to the offense prior to this season. 2 new TE, 2 new WR, a rookie RB and most importantly a rookie QB. Then add on to that the loss of their best pass catching RB. To expect all of those pieces to mesh in their first year is a big ask. The Pats are tied to all of these guys through next year. Might as well stay optimistic about their development.