Pats' Trade Value

[BaseballJones]

Guys on the roster and what they might be worth...

Maye - high first rounder multiple first round picks (corrected)
Gonzalez - mid first rounder
Barmore - hard to say because of his injury/illness, but probably a second or third rounder
Dugger - third rounder
Godchaux - fifth rounder
Douglas - fifth rounder (?)
Henry - fifth rounder to a team in desperate need of a solid vet TE
White - fifth rounder
Onwenu - fifth rounder
Boutte - seventh rounder maybe
Bourne - seventh rounder
J Jones - sixth rounder (?)
Stevenson - sixth rounder (?)
Strange - sixth rounder (injury issue but still)
Bentley - injury issue but maybe sixth or seventh rounder
Baringer - seventh rounder
Hooper - seventh rounder maybe?

Guys who you could probably get for a future (2025 or 2026) sixth or seventh round pick, like the Uche deal:
M Jones
Tavai, maybe
Jennings
Mapu
Hooper
Ekuale
Wise
Andrews

Long story short, there's just not a lot of guys on the roster that right now you could trade for a good draft pick.

 

[Gash Prex]

I think this chart vastly underrates Maye after his in-game performances as a rookie.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think this chart vastly underrates Maye after his in-game performances as a rookie.

You're thinking he'd be worth multiple first rounders maybe? Yeah, I can see him fetching more than a single first rounder.

 

[cshea]

Maye is probably worth multiple firsts. Gonzalez potentially as well.

 

[BaseballJones]

Maye is probably worth multiple firsts. Gonzalez potentially as well.

Agree on Maye. Disagree on Gonzalez.

 

[cshea]

Agree on Maye. Disagree on Gonzalez.

Shutdown corner on a rookie contract. Very valuable. Jalen Ramsey brought back 2 firsts with a year left on his rookie deal.

 

[Gash Prex]

You're thinking he'd be worth multiple first rounders maybe? Yeah, I can see him fetching more than a single first rounder.

There were offers for multiple firsts BEFORE he showed that he has actual ability to produce in the NFL (unlike Richardson, Young etc...). Unless you are signing Mahomes, Allen etc... there is nothing more valuable than a young QB on his rookie deal. He still has lots of growing to do so but its very exciting.

 

[BaseballJones]

Shutdown corner on a rookie contract. Very valuable. Jalen Ramsey brought back 2 firsts with a year left on his rookie deal.

He hasn't shown himself to be Ramsey level and consistency yet.

 

[BaseballJones]

There were offers for multiple firsts BEFORE he showed that he has actual ability to produce in the NFL (unlike Richardson, Young etc...). Unless you are signing Mahomes, Allen etc... there is nothing more valuable than a young QB on his rookie deal. He still has lots of growing to do so but its very exciting.

Totally agree. The Pats' appear to have the #1 most desired thing in the NFL - a young stud QB making very little money. That's the key to this rebuild. They need a lot more. One of the points of my post is that they don't really have a lot around him that other teams would value, which means that they've got a ton of work to do.

 

[astrozombie]

Maybe I need another coffee, but I would keep Boutte over a seventh rounder. He's never going to be a WR1, but I could see him being better with Maye getting him more throws.
I know the Oline is precarious at best, but I would drive Strange to the airport myself for a sixth rounder. That pick was probably the moment when "In Bill We Trust", at least as a GM, ended for me.

 

[cshea]

He hasn't shown himself to be Ramsey level and consistency yet.

Well sure, he has only played 12 games in his career. But he looks like a #1 CB with the potential to be a top 5 guy. And in the hypothetical, the acquiring team is getting 3 years of a rookie contract. QB is obviously the most valuable position in the game but CB isn't far behind. I think if the Pats put Gonzo on the block they'd get a haul.

 

[lexrageorge]

Maybe I need another coffee, but I would keep Boutte over a seventh rounder. He's never going to be a WR1, but I could see him being better with Maye getting him more throws.
I know the Oline is precarious at best, but I would drive Strange to the airport myself for a sixth rounder. That pick was probably the moment when "In Bill We Trust", at least as a GM, ended for me.

The thing with Boutte is that he is a 6th round pick that has 13 career receptions in 2 seasons. In a hypothetical trade scenario, teams would want to see a lot more tape and production before coughing up anything of value.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

My take-away from that list is that we shouldn't be looking to trade away very many players for picks.

The marginal value of getting a future 5th or 6th rounder for (say) Pop Douglas is pretty small. But the possibility that Pop and Maye develop some real chemistry and that makes our offense a step-function better is worth more, given where we are.

Same logic applies with a lot of other names on that list. The possibility that they turn into something is worth more than selling them for pennies, and trying all over again in 48 months with someone else.

 

[lexrageorge]

Guys on the roster and what they might be worth...

Maye - high first rounder multiple first round picks (corrected)
Gonzalez - mid first rounder
Barmore - hard to say because of his injury/illness, but probably a second or third rounder
Dugger - third rounder
Godchaux - fifth rounder
Douglas - fifth rounder (?)
Henry - fifth rounder to a team in desperate need of a solid vet TE
White - fifth rounder
Onwenu - fifth rounder
Boutte - seventh rounder maybe
Bourne - seventh rounder
J Jones - sixth rounder (?)
Stevenson - sixth rounder (?)
Strange - sixth rounder (injury issue but still)
Bentley - injury issue but maybe sixth or seventh rounder
Baringer - seventh rounder
Hooper - seventh rounder maybe?

Guys who you could probably get for a future (2025 or 2026) sixth or seventh round pick, like the Uche deal:
M Jones
Tavai, maybe
Jennings
Mapu
Hooper
Ekuale
Wise
Andrews

Long story short, there's just not a lot of guys on the roster that right now you could trade for a good draft pick.

The injured players cannot even be traded AFAIK. Even if they were able to be traded, the market would be tiny. Until we learn more, Barmore's blood clots could be career ending (a-la Chris Bosh), Strange's knee hasn't been healthy now in 2 seasons and there haven't been any reports of his returning to practice anytime soon, and Andrews is likely finished.

I think Dugger returns less than a 3rd rounder. He'll be 29 next season and is hardly an anchoring player for a defense.

My take-away from that list is that we shouldn't be looking to trade away very many players for picks.

The marginal value of getting a future 5th or 6th rounder for (say) Pop Douglas is pretty small. But the possibility that Pop and Maye develop some real chemistry and that makes our offense a step-function better is worth more, given where we are.

Same logic applies with a lot of other names on that list. The possibility that they turn into something is worth more than selling them for pennies, and trying all over again in 48 months with someone else.

The only players the Pats should consider trading are veteran players on their second contract and pending UFA's. Young players like Douglas and Marcus Jones and Boutte have upside, and the Pats will have to bet on that upside to some extent in order to return to playoff contention - there are only so many draft picks to be made and only so many free agents a team can sign.

 

[Seels]

really not sure anyone has any value aside from Maye Gonzalez and White. And honestly I don't think Gonzalez gets a 1st rounder today. Maybe a 2nd. He's been fine but not irreplaceable.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

really not sure anyone has any value aside from Maye Gonzalez and White. And honestly I don't think Gonzalez gets a 1st rounder today. Maybe a 2nd. He's been fine but not irreplaceable.

gonzalez is a top tier CB on a rookie contract. He’s absolutely worth a mid/late 1st

 

[radsoxfan]

Pretty surprised to see people thinking Gonzalez might not currently be worth a 1st rounder. That's crazy talk.

He would fetch a 1st round pick + additional picks if put on the market now.

Maye definitely worth multiple 1st rounders, he just went #3 and has not disappointed in limited action.

 

[NDame616]

discussing the trade value of 2 high impact players on rookie deals, a guy who's career is likely over (Andrews) and another who will be out for the rest of the season/career may be over (Barmore) seems like a waste of time but....

I'd trade Bourne (maybe he's get a 6th) just for the purposes of letting the young WRs get more reps with Maye.

 

[8slim]

My take-away from that list is that we shouldn't be looking to trade away very many players for picks.

The marginal value of getting a future 5th or 6th rounder for (say) Pop Douglas is pretty small. But the possibility that Pop and Maye develop some real chemistry and that makes our offense a step-function better is worth more, given where we are.

Same logic applies with a lot of other names on that list. The possibility that they turn into something is worth more than selling them for pennies, and trying all over again in 48 months with someone else.

Agree. It's an interesting exercise, but in reality there's only a handful of guys on the roster who (a) we should consider trading and (b) have any value. I also imagine trading a few of our vets might be tough since we signed them to extensions recently.

 

[bsj]

I could see some situation-specific desperation-based variance. Example...if the 49ers came calling about Bourne, perhaps a 6 that becomes a 5 if he meets certain benchmarks.

 

[lexrageorge]

I could see some situation-specific desperation-based variance. Example...if the 49ers came calling about Bourne, perhaps a 6 that becomes a 5 if he meets certain benchmarks.

The Texans are another one that could come calling, as Stefon Diggs tore his ACL over the weekend.

 

[E5 Yaz]

From Diana Russini in a paywalled trade roundup in The Atlantic:

The 49ers have called around looking to add to their defense; New England defensive tackle Davon Godchaux is available, and the Niners know it. The Patriots also are open to moving wideouts Tyquan Thornton and Kendrick Bourne as well as safety Kyle Dugger.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Open to moving Thornton? lol. Only in the right deal, I assume?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Open to moving Thornton? lol. Only in the right deal, I assume?

True, but I think the Dugger suggestion was the highlight there

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

True, but I think the Dugger suggestion was the highlight there

Agree, I was being a bit snarky.

Not really sure I see the benefit of dealing any of these guys, for the Patriots. They don’t need the cap space, and they don’t have anyone to replace most of these guys. A middling pick or two feels meh.

 

[chilidawg]

Agree, I was being a bit snarky.

Not really sure I see the benefit of dealing any of these guys, for the Patriots. They don’t need the cap space, and they don’t have anyone to replace most of these guys. A middling pick or two feels meh.

My take as well. Unless you're getting a 4th or better (which seems unlikely) I'd hold.

 

[E5 Yaz]

My take as well. Unless you're getting a 4th or better (which seems unlikely) I'd hold.

Lower round picks can be sweeteners in a deal. Hold onto to these guys ... why? To win 1-3 more games and get a worse first-rounder in '25?

 

[NDame616]

Lower round picks can be sweeteners in a deal. Hold onto to these guys ... why? To win 1-3 more games and get a worse first-rounder in '25?

With a little luck and if Maye keeps on an improving path, the Pats could be a very good team before Duggar's contract is up.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

At some point you need to add starter-level talent

If the team thinks there is someone on the practice squad or the bench who is significantly younger and ready to step into a starting role, maybe you trade the guy who's got more trade value around the league. The team seems to think that there's not much lost moving from giving Josh Uche's snaps to Ochaun Mathris, and seeing as the second is 25 instead of 30, more potential medium-term upside.

Now, this approach depends on the front office and coaching staff being good at talent evaluation and development. And, while a lot of people here seem to have made up their minds on that front-- in part b/c of everything that happened after the first round of the last draft-- but for now I'm neither buying or selling on that stock.

To the initial point: it doesn't make sense to trade a vet if we don't have a decent replacement on the roster. We're already bad enough to get real draft equity. We don't need a generational QB anymore.

 

[E5 Yaz]

To the initial point: it doesn't make sense to trade a vet if we don't have a decent replacement on the roster. We're already bad enough to get real draft equity. We don't need a generational QB anymore.

But other teams will and, to me, 2025 is the draft fr trying to trade out for multiple picks ... including a 2026 first-rounder

 

[mikcou]

At some point you need to add starter-level talent

If the team thinks there is someone on the practice squad or the bench who is significantly younger and ready to step into a starting role, maybe you trade the guy who's got more trade value around the league. The team seems to think that there's not much lost moving from giving Josh Uche's snaps to Ochaun Mathris, and seeing as the second is 25 instead of 30, more potential medium-term upside.

Now, this approach depends on the front office and coaching staff being good at talent evaluation and development. And, while a lot of people here seem to have made up their minds on that front-- in part b/c of everything that happened after the first round of the last draft-- but for now I'm neither buying or selling on that stock.

To the initial point: it doesn't make sense to trade a vet if we don't have a decent replacement on the roster. We're already bad enough to get real draft equity. We don't need a generational QB anymore.

I generally agree with this, but Uche is 26, not 30. There's more control with Mathris, but the age difference is pretty immaterial.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

I generally agree with this, but Uche is 26, not 30. There's more control with Mathris, but the age difference is pretty immaterial.

As always, I'm an idiot

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

But other teams will and, to me, 2025 is the draft fr trying to trade out for multiple picks ... including a 2026 first-rounder

If the question we're debating is: (#1) "In the scenario where the Pats are drafting top 5, and multiple teams are clamoring to trade up for Cam Ward, should we trade down for more picks" I'm conceptually very open to this

If the question we're debating is (#2) "Should we trade Duggar for a future pick if we don't have anyone else on the roster the staff think is competent to replace him" I'm in going to have a different reaction.

I thought we were talking about #2.

 

[Cellar-Door]

As always depends on the price. Dugger offseason was a little weird, tagged him to avoid getting nothing, then a deal that felt out of line with the market by a few million. Reasonable but at least partially based on the thought he would return closer to previous years.... He hasn't really. He's been a fine but not great safety who is the creating the kind of big plays he did in the past. That's not a super hard thing to replace most of. I would guess that the Patriots are shopping him as a partly paid for off player for a day 2 pick. Not sure there will be takers but that's probably a nice deal for NE... Pay around 8-10M in cap to turn a decent starter into a pick with real value. If the offer isn't therefore they just keep him

 

[chilidawg]

Lower round picks can be sweeteners in a deal. Hold onto to these guys ... why? To win 1-3 more games and get a worse first-rounder in '25?

Building a winning culture is more important imo than getting a better draft pick. If you've got vets that help with that I'd keep them over grabbing an extra 6th. If they don't I'm glad to see them go. Or if they're blocking young talent (but I don't think that's case at many positions.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

There’s no winning culture if the team isn’t winning. The Pats are 31-44 since Duggar was drafted; he’s never been on a team that won a playoff game. I wouldn’t give him away but also wouldn’t have given him any kind of culture premium on his last contract.

I’d probably keep him; he’s a good player on a team without many decent players. Do we think, if he’s traded, the team is suddenly going to nail the pick that we get for him?

 

[Cellar-Door]

There’s no winning culture if the team isn’t winning. The Pats are 31-44 since Duggar was drafted; he’s never been on a team that won a playoff game. I wouldn’t give him away but also wouldn’t have given him any kind of culture premium on his last contract.

I’d probably keep him; he’s a good player on a team without many decent players. Do we think, if he’s traded, the team is suddenly going to nail the pick that we get for him?

I mean if they don't draft well a mediocre starting vet SS isn't going to do much for your win totals.

It's all relative. No reason to trade an acceptable starter for a late pick, on the other hand, "winning culture" needs winning and nothing we've seen from Dugger makes me think he's leading on the field at such a level that he's irreplaceable. There are other vets, they aren't going to trade like 5 guys in the next few days... they'll trade somewhere between 0 and 2 depending on value available.

However... if you don't trust the front office to draft... you actually probably want MORE swings, every GM you want more swings because all of them miss a lot, especially in the mid-rounds.

 

[thestardawg]

I can see them moving Bourne, Duggar and Jones. As painful as the WR core has been, Bourne has been invisable since coming back from his injury, and isn't giving the team reason to keep running him out there. Play Baker, Boutte and Polk and deal with the growing pains.

Jones is on the back 9 and in decline. He's still above average, but not terribly so. Are you going to bring him back next year? Probably not. You might be able to get a 4 or a 5 for him. Same with Duggar who is a physical freak but his output has always trailed his physical gifts.

 

[lexrageorge]

Again, it's Kyle Dugger (coming from someone who has made the same mistake multiple times in the past).

I see no reason to keep Bourne. He's not going to fix the Pats lack of a #1 receiver, and he probably only has a couple of seasons left in the tank anyway. Same could be said for Jones.

As for Dugger or Godchaux? My argument for keeping him is that the Pats have already traded away a lot of players on the defense, and replacements next season are going to have to come from somewhere. I think both are in the camp of "worth calling around, and taking a good deal if one comes along" category, but probably not worth trading them for 7th round picks.

 

[amfox1]

WRs Osborn and Thornton are healthy scratches. Have to think they'll be gone after the trade deadline.

 

[E5 Yaz]

WRs Osborn and Thornton are healthy scratches. Have to think they'll be gone after the trade deadline.

Or, at least they'll try to move them

edit: Dugger also inactive

 

[thestardawg]

Again, it's Kyle Dugger (coming from someone who has made the same mistake multiple times in the past).

I see no reason to keep Bourne. He's not going to fix the Pats lack of a #1 receiver, and he probably only has a couple of seasons left in the tank anyway. Same could be said for Jones.

As for Dugger or Godchaux? My argument for keeping him is that the Pats have already traded away a lot of players on the defense, and replacements next season are going to have to come from somewhere. I think both are in the camp of "worth calling around, and taking a good deal if one comes along" category, but probably not worth trading them for 7th round picks.

I agree on Godchaux because he also seems to be committed to doing things the right ay and he has called out others for lack of effort.

Trading Dugger I assume would open even more cap space for a somewhat overrated player

 

[jk333]

As for Dugger or Godchaux? My argument for keeping him is that the Pats have already traded away a lot of players on the defense, and replacements next season are going to have to come from somewhere. I think both are in the camp of "worth calling around, and taking a good deal if one comes along" category, but probably not worth trading them for 7th round picks.

Agree with you. Would happily accept a good offer but they also need good players for next year’s team. I’d immediately accept 2nd/3rd for Dugger/Godchaux and think about but probably turn down a 3rd/4th for them.

As another team, I wouldn’t offer a 2nd for Dugger so hard to see him being dealt.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

WRs Osborn and Thornton are healthy scratches. Have to think they'll be gone after the trade deadline.

They both stink and have been healthy inactives in prior weeks. Can’t imagine either has trade value, maybe a conditional 7th or something but it’s just as possible that they’re inactive because they suck and don’t do much on special teams as it is they’re somehow being protected for a trade

 

[E5 Yaz]

They both stink and have been healthy inactives in prior weeks. Can’t imagine either has trade value, maybe a conditional 7th or something but it’s just as possible that they’re inactive because they suck and don’t do much on special teams as it is they’re somehow being protected for a trade

There's also a numbers question, as Reiss pointed out this morning:
"Now that the Patriots have elevated rookie receiver Javon Baker as their primary kickoff returner, and with Ja'Lynn Polk set to return from a concussion, they have a seven-player logjam at the position."

 

[Justthetippett]

There's also a numbers question, as Reiss pointed out this morning:
"Now that the Patriots have elevated rookie receiver Javon Baker as their primary kickoff returner, and with Ja'Lynn Polk set to return from a concussion, they have a seven-player logjam at the position."

A logjam of #4 WRs is quite a thing...trash patch?