Payton Pritchard drafted #26 overall

nighthob

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Can’t wait until lovegtm watches this one and quotes those “Dean on draft” tweets again.
Honestly I didn’t love the pick as he seemed like a Wanamaker replacement (i.e. third string PG prospect). Never have I been so happy to be wrong.
 

lovegtm

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Honestly I didn’t love the pick as he seemed like a Wanamaker replacement (i.e. third string PG prospect). Never have I been so happy to be wrong.
I wasn’t over the moon either. Dean’s Twitter post wasn’t funny because he was wrong; it was funny because he was an overconfident pompous ass AND instantly wrong.

Agree w Imbricus that PP has starter potential. One thing though is that they might want to keep him in a 2nd unit role in anticipation of Kemba being back. I don’t really sweat who starts, as long as enough minutes get gotten.
 

slamminsammya

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He blows by guys really easily. Its like the opposite of watching broken Kemba in the playoffs. I do think this has something to do with not having respect around the league yet, you can see opposing guards really like getting up in his grill when he brings the ball up.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I said it during the game thread, and I really believe it: the guy will turn into a starter. I know we talk about a four-year, late first-round guy with so-so athleticism as having a "good rotation player" ceiling, but Pritchard can run an offense and break down defenses and distribute. And, at some point, if Brad doesn't want to start him, the Jays will tell Brad to start him, because it's clear that Pritchard is helping to make them better. I know last night is just one game, and the kid will have some bad ones (second game of the Detroit series was kind of meh), but the point guard skills are what's exciting to me.
I think it will ultimately be Pritchard's defense that decides whether or not he starts.

In terms of offense, I think that, in only 8 games, he has already shown that he has enough skill, versatility, pace, and grit to be a nice fit alongside Brown and Tatum. I think the jury is still out on whether or not he can be a pure PG type, but the Celtics don't really need him to be that. (And I'm not saying that he can't be that - just that I'm not sold yet).

If he starts in the backcourt alongside Smart or Brown, can he hold his own defensively against NBA starters? What if he starts alongside Kemba - can a small Kemba/Pritchard backcourt defend NBA starters? I don't think those questions have been answered one way or the other just yet.
 

BaseballJones

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And some guys are just...crafty. They may not be premier athletes (compared to others in the NBA), but they just know how to change gears at the right time, angle their bodies just right, etc. Pritchard seems to be one of these guys.
 

tbrown_01923

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his handle is tight, he knows where the ball is at all times, he seems to know where the defenders are, and he is able to get the angle... it allows him to get the step - and if you play off him he is a knock down shooter. He is faster than Kyle Anderson though :)
 

lovegtm

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I think it will ultimately be Pritchard's defense that decides whether or not he starts.

In terms of offense, I think that, in only 8 games, he has already shown that he has enough skill, versatility, pace, and grit to be a nice fit alongside Brown and Tatum. I think the jury is still out on whether or not he can be a pure PG type, but the Celtics don't really need him to be that. (And I'm not saying that he can't be that - just that I'm not sold yet).

If he starts in the backcourt alongside Smart or Brown, can he hold his own defensively against NBA starters? What if he starts alongside Kemba - can a small Kemba/Pritchard backcourt defend NBA starters? I don't think those questions have been answered one way or the other just yet.
This is pretty clearly headed in the direction of managing the shit out of Kemba’s minutes for 3 years, with PP getting heavy 6th man minutes and starting when Kemba is out.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is pretty clearly headed in the direction of managing the shit out of Kemba’s minutes for 3 years, with PP getting heavy 6th man minutes and starting when Kemba is out.
Agreed. PP has made me a lot less concerned about Kemba’s knee and has removed my desire for a guy like Dejounte with the TPE. Now entirely focused on finding another wing since Nesmith ain’t close to being ready and who knows with Romeo.
 

lovegtm

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Agreed. PP has made me a lot less concerned about Kemba’s knee and has removed my desire for a guy like Dejounte with the TPE. Now entirely focused on finding another wing since Nesmith ain’t close to being ready and who knows with Romeo.
Worth noting that, in addition to waiting for guys to actually be available, you don’t rush using the TPE. Have to find out what you’ve got first.
 

BigSoxFan

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Worth noting that, in addition to waiting for guys to actually be available, you don’t rush using the TPE. Have to find out what you’ve got first.
Yeah, I don’t expect it to be used this season. You have to see what Romeo/Nesmith can do first.
 

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I wasn’t over the moon either. Dean’s Twitter post wasn’t funny because he was wrong; it was funny because he was an overconfident pompous ass AND instantly wrong.

Agree w Imbricus that PP has starter potential. One thing though is that they might want to keep him in a 2nd unit role in anticipation of Kemba being back. I don’t really sweat who starts, as long as enough minutes get gotten.
I love the idea of PP cementing a role as starter, as a true facilitating PG who has some long-range 3P gravity. This also opens the possibility of Kemba coming off the bench in a new-age Microwave role, where he can be a PG whose primary role is scoring. This also inherently protects Kemba on the defensive ned by matching up with bench players.
 

lovegtm

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I love the idea of PP cementing a role as starter, as a true facilitating PG who has some long-range 3P gravity. This also opens the possibility of Kemba coming off the bench in a new-age Microwave role, where he can be a PG whose primary role is scoring. This also inherently protects Kemba on the defensive ned by matching up with bench players.
I suspect they’ll avoid controversy by starting Kemba but lining up his rotations to lead bench units more.
 

TripleOT

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It’s only a few games, but a 6’2 rookie going 10 for 11 at the rim with only 30% assisted is ridiculous. Probably unprecedented.

PP is 70% inside of 10 feet, with over 70% self generated. Mid-range, he’s 5-11, and he’s at 42.1% from three, 8-19.

He reminds me of fellow four year college guy Malcolm Brogdon’s rookie year.
 

Mooch

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I see a lot of Mark Price in PP's game. Great handle, quick feet, ability to finish in the lane, great pick and roll player.
 

amarshal2

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If the draft were held again today, what are the odds that Neismith and PP would roughly switch spots?
 

CreightonGubanich

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As much as I hate to compare him to another white guy, he reminds me a bit of Kirk Hinrich - another guy who got unfairly labeled as a shooter. Hinrich had a great handle and could get wherever he wanted to on the floor, and was a tough if undersized defender. Pritchard appears to have a stepback that Hinrich could only dream of, though.
 

tbrown_01923

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I see a lot of Mark Price in PP's game. Great handle, quick feet, ability to finish in the lane, great pick and roll player.
Price was a hell of a player. I remember him being much quicker than PP is - but that might be my memory. They are both crafty with the dribble and creative finishers
 

the moops

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As much as I hate to compare him to another white guy, he reminds me a bit of Kirk Hinrich - another guy who got unfairly labeled as a shooter. Hinrich had a great handle and could get wherever he wanted to on the floor, and was a tough if undersized defender. Pritchard appears to have a stepback that Hinrich could only dream of, though.
Was Hinrich really undersized? I have recollection of him being decently sized with good length
 

Cesar Crespo

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He blows by guys really easily. Its like the opposite of watching broken Kemba in the playoffs. I do think this has something to do with not having respect around the league yet, you can see opposing guards really like getting up in his grill when he brings the ball up.

Or he's a better athlete than we think, just in different ways from how we normally judge athletes (Track and field competition).
 

lovegtm

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Or he's a better athlete than we think, just in different ways from how we normally judge athletes (Track and field competition).
He has the elite deceleration that is typical of guys who are more athletic than you'd expect from their track meet scores (Luka and Harden, at the top end). It's not a coincidence that he's a surprisingly good finisher near the rim and can draw fouls there.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Price was a hell of a player. I remember him being much quicker than PP is - but that might be my memory. They are both crafty with the dribble and creative finishers
Yes, Price was much quicker and an elite shooter. To me the obvious comp is the matchup we saw last night.....Van Vleet. Neither are blurs but understand how to utilize angles and have great body control allowing them to finish against bigs while being good perimeter shooters.

The big question for guards (especially) is if they can slow the game down once they bump up a level into college and then the NBA. I wasn’t optimistic when I saw him stepping out of bounds on two catch-and-shoots in the same quarter of one game but he has settled down nicely. Some players never find that comfort zone, others it takes 2-3 years.......for Pritchard it has taken 2-3 weeks. Real good stuff here.
 

slamminsammya

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He cooked Terence Davis on a crossover and had Normal Powell also two steps off on a crossover, and had no trouble using a pick to get by Fred Van Vleet who was picking him up close at the logo. I don't know if those guys are great defenders but they aren't sieves either.
 

teddykgb

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A more cautionary tale might be Jeremy Lin (who was still a good player). Pritchard has been great at just dribbling into the defense and causing some havoc which has really helped the offense not be so static when he’s out there. We need to see how the league adjusts to him and whether they find a hole in his game which might limit his upside to backup guard with an X factor. He’s been a revelation so far, really glad to see him bounce back against Toronto after seeing more rookie in his game in Detroit
 

slamminsammya

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A more cautionary tale might be Jeremy Lin (who was still a good player). Pritchard has been great at just dribbling into the defense and causing some havoc which has really helped the offense not be so static when he’s out there. We need to see how the league adjusts to him and whether they find a hole in his game which might limit his upside to backup guard with an X factor. He’s been a revelation so far, really glad to see him bounce back against Toronto after seeing more rookie in his game in Detroit
Lin was a very solid backup PG, that would be a great outcome in my opinion.
 

teddykgb

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Lin was a very solid backup PG, that would be a great outcome in my opinion.
I agree and I don’t think it’s a perfect comparison. I think Pritchard is showing a better shot than Lin but there are some stylistic similarities in that all action drive and cause chaos play style. The upside is probably someone like Nash, of course, but no matter what if you can reliably disrupt defenses and make a 3 there’s a role for you in the league
 

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A more cautionary tale might be Jeremy Lin (who was still a good player). Pritchard has been great at just dribbling into the defense and causing some havoc which has really helped the offense not be so static when he’s out there. We need to see how the league adjusts to him and whether they find a hole in his game which might limit his upside to backup guard with an X factor. He’s been a revelation so far, really glad to see him bounce back against Toronto after seeing more rookie in his game in Detroit
That seems to be the challenge -- across sports -- for rookies: can they adjust to the league after the league adjusts to them?
 

lovegtm

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"Other than his shot, Payton Pritchard is like X player" has a very "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" quality to it.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Lin couldn't shoot? According to BBRef his shooting numbers seemed consistently right around league average.
Can't shoot is probably a bit harsh but he was slightly below average. During his career, the league average from 3 was .356, Lin was .342. The C's don't need mediocre shooting. They need good to elite shooting.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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A more cautionary tale might be Jeremy Lin (who was still a good player). Pritchard has been great at just dribbling into the defense and causing some havoc which has really helped the offense not be so static when he’s out there. We need to see how the league adjusts to him and whether they find a hole in his game which might limit his upside to backup guard with an X factor. He’s been a revelation so far, really glad to see him bounce back against Toronto after seeing more rookie in his game in Detroit
Yes and no. Teams will adjust, but the skillset he has is kind of the queen of the skill chessboard for a guy his size. Hes shown the ability to get past his man. Teams cant just "take away" his ability to dissect a team from within. He has the vision to find the open man if teams collapse, and he has really crafty moves if they let him get to the net.

Really, the only way to stop it is by denying him the ball, or by sticking a real strong perimeter defender on him (which takes it off Tatum or Brown).

Hes going to have growing pains, no doubt. But his skillset is way more impressive than I realized.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yes and no. Teams will adjust, but the skillset he has is kind of the queen of the skill chessboard for a guy his size. Hes shown the ability to get past his man. Teams cant just "take away" his ability to dissect a team from within. He has the vision to find the open man if teams collapse, and he has really crafty moves if they let him get to the net.

Really, the only way to stop it is by denying him the ball, or by sticking a real strong perimeter defender on him (which takes it off Tatum or Brown).

Hes going to have growing pains, no doubt. But his skillset is way more impressive than I realized.
And he’s probably going up against Smart in practice, which is the perfect way to develop him. PP is going to torch Kemba when he returns.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Lin's 4 years in college
.415/.281/.818
.448/.279/.621
.502/.400/.755
.519/.341/.755
Career: .481/.333//.733. 108/324 from 3.

PP
.393/.350/.730
.447/.413/.774
.418/.328/.838
.468/.415/.821
Career: .437/.379/.800. 288/750 from 3.


Pretty sure PP was and is a much better shooter than Lin ever was.
 

radsoxfan

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People still look at PER? It's a garbage stat, and Hollinger is an extremely weak thinker in general; he's much better at dishing catty gossip. Pritchard is legit good, you don't have to worry about the color of your lenses.
Was half joking about the PER thing, obviously not the critical stat. It also updated to 13.7 after yesterdays game FWIW.

I'm sure he is being dinged for a relatively high turnover rate and relatively low usage rate at this point.
 

lovegtm

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Was half joking about the PER thing, obviously not the critical stat. It also updated to 13.7 after yesterdays game FWIW.

I'm sure he is being dinged for a relatively high turnover rate and relatively low usage rate at this point.
Yeah, nothing personal to you; something about Hollinger annoys the shit out of me. He’s living Smarm.
 

teddykgb

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The point I poorly made with Lin was more that sometimes a fearless unexpected player can take the league by surprise.

It’s just such a thin line that small adjustments and or the injury potential of playing that way can also flip on a guy and take away what made them seem exceptional. At this point I think it’s probably not a helpful diversion for the thread as Lin was bigger and as good as Pritchard has been Lin was far better for that brief period. I don’t see them as comps, just some similarities there and Lin ends up doing his knee and relegated to backup/China after tearing the league apart for a brief spell.

For me, the finishing at the rim has been a really pleasant surprise. As Tremont Waters shows us, being able to blow by your man is useless if it doesn’t come with a credible threat to finish. He’s finished on some big players already but the adjustment Id be most worried about for him would be the bigs in the league getting used to how he finishes and being able to stop him at the rim
 

moondog80

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Where do you even find PER nowadays?
ESPN has it too.

It's been surpassed by other things, but it's a pretty good summation of what shows up in the box score, and correlates fairly well with other measures. Breakout guys often show impressive PER years before they emerge (Christian Wood, Kyle Lowry).
 

CSteinhardt

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He's fun to watch, and that's probably the best thing for me, since it's early-season NBA regular season basketball, we knew coming in that this year really wasn't about the regular season, and there wasn't even a long enough offseason to start to salivate about offseason player development.

Having said that, I'm not convinced that 8 games should significantly change our view. What he is right now is a rotation player in the NBA, which is useful, but also what you expect to get out of a four-year college player in the late first round. If he didn't have some skills that would quickly translate, he shouldn't have been drafted, because the age means he has a lot less remaining development time. What makes me particularly hopeful is the combination of some NBA-ready skills and what seems to be a strong work ethic -- those are the players who seem most likely to find improvements even later in their career (Smart), and if he can develop a couple of additional NBA skills, then I'd start to get a lot more excited.

So although these 8 games have been fun, the most likely outcome still is a player who can make a full career out of being a key part of an NBA second unit. That would be decent value for where he was picked, and especially a good fit given what we needed to fill out this roster and the cap situation. But if we redrafted today, PP shouldn't be a lottery pick.

On the other hand, he's definitely a high-effort player, and there's a path for turning effort into defensive results. And he's sure in the right development environment to give him every chance to maximize his potential, so from that point of view alone, I really like the fit. I really like rooting for hard workers to develop, and it's the same reason that I'm irrationally attached to Smart and dislike hearing about trade proposals that probably objectively would make the team better.
 

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Also PP spent last night going toe to toe with his comp. Once he can incorporate some of FVF's sneaky defense into his portfolio, he'll have a long career as a starter.
 

Mooch

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Lin's 4 years in college
.415/.281/.818
.448/.279/.621
.502/.400/.755
.519/.341/.755
Career: .481/.333//.733. 108/324 from 3.

PP
.393/.350/.730
.447/.413/.774
.418/.328/.838
.468/.415/.821
Career: .437/.379/.800. 288/750 from 3.


Pretty sure PP was and is a much better shooter than Lin ever was.
To say nothing of the relative skill level of the Pac 12 vs. the Ivy league defenses.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yes and no. Teams will adjust, but the skillset he has is kind of the queen of the skill chessboard for a guy his size. Hes shown the ability to get past his man. Teams cant just "take away" his ability to dissect a team from within. He has the vision to find the open man if teams collapse, and he has really crafty moves if they let him get to the net.

Really, the only way to stop it is by denying him the ball, or by sticking a real strong perimeter defender on him (which takes it off Tatum or Brown).

Hes going to have growing pains, no doubt. But his skillset is way more impressive than I realized.
Just maybe to put a finer point on it, I think the one skill he has that makes him super hard to guard is that he has a diversity of moves. When he drives, he can pass or shoot. He can go left or right. He can finish at the rim but he also has a mid-range game (the baby hook he hit over FVV was kind of absurd for a 22 YO to pull out). He can obviously shoot. So he gets defenders on their heels, which opens up the floor for him and his teammates.

Teams adjust to rookies because most of them can only drive or shoot from certain spots but can't do much else in between. Defenses watch film and keep them from their favorite spots or sit on their favorite moves. PP has shown an ability to attack a defense from pretty much every spot on the court - except, maybe, the left wing 3P line where he's stepped out of bounds (or traveled) on multiple occasions this year. :)
 

Cesar Crespo

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Heh, I use basketball reference and espn for my stats. I guess I've just grown accustomed to ignoring it.

Having said that, I'm not convinced that 8 games should significantly change our view. What he is right now is a rotation player in the NBA, which is useful, but also what you expect to get out of a four-year college player in the late first round.
It's not expected at all. Yes, a 4 year college player is far more likely to be NBA ready... but they still aren't likely to be NBA ready. I guess it could depend on what you mean by rotation player but the expected outcome for a 4 year college player is definitely not a rookie getting 23 minutes a night on a playoff contending team.

It could also depend on what you mean by significant. I was thinking his floor was Brad Wanamaker and his ceiling was a slightly better Brad Wanamaker.. So for me specifically, he has already hit his ceiling. I'd say there is less than a 1% chance I am not going to be dead wrong about PP and I should be readjusting my outlook significantly.


To say nothing of the relative skill level of the Pac 12 vs. the Ivy league defenses.
Good point. If you parse through the data, adjust for variance and add a dash of homerism, there's some numbers that suggest PP could actually be an elite shooter. Like, you really have to adjust for variance in his junior year but guys have off years.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's not expected at all. Yes, a 4 year college player is far more likely to be NBA ready... but they still aren't likely to be NBA ready. I guess it could depend on what you mean by rotation player but the expected outcome for a 4 year college player is definitely not a rookie getting 23 minutes a night on a playoff contending team.
I think this is right, especially if we are talking about a PG. Even most players who have good rookie years take a few games to adjust.
 

TheRooster

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The great thing about last night is that we got a nearly ideal controlled experiment on PP versus Waters. The "winner" was so obvious that it simplifies roster management going forward. Waters (and probably Edwards too) is 100% expendable. I was never a Waters fan (too small; no single elite skill/charateristic) but his limitations jumped off the screen last night. He's worse than PP at both ends by a substantial margin. He reminds me of a AAAA player in baseball. Can put up numbers in the G-league/International League but never going to be capable in the NBA/MLB.
 

radsoxfan

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PER is such a trigger word, yikes. It can be a mediocre catch-all stat than doesn't mean much in a vacuum without eliciting PTSD.