Payton Pritchard says PRabbit, PRabbit on the First of Every Month

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Did Bowiac leave the Cellar? He would be the person to ask about DARKO

In NBA analytics, "Daily Plus-Minus" (often referred to as "DPM" or "DARKO") is a more advanced metric that calculates a player's impact on the game by considering not just their basic plus-minus, but also factors like recent performance, opponent quality, and situational context, using complex statistical models like "Kalman filters" to weight recent data more heavily and provide a more predictive measure of a player's daily impact on the game

DARKO, aka Daily Plus-Minus or DPM, is created by Kostya Medvedovsky. DARKO (stands for “Daily Adjusted and Regressed Kalman Optimized“) is a composite predictive metric that uses box score and plus-minus stats. By blending these components in proportion to the number of total possessions of a player, recent performance is weighted more heavily to better predict future game outcomes.

(On-Court & On-Off) make up +/- per 100.
1. Your teammates will affect your On-Court number
2. How well you play relative to your teammates will be reflected by On-Off

Over time they will start telling you how well the team fares on Defense, on Offense, & Overall when a player is playing or not playing.

It's been my contention for a while that Brad was chasing Derrick White & not Dejounte Murray (even though DM was much more decorated). White's On-Court & On-Off dwarfed Dejounte when they played for the Spurs.
Moving Devizier's post from the Sixers thread over here because he said similar things to you.

Also, I don't think DARKO clears out garbage time minutes. Haven't people said that the Cs garbage time units haven't been fairing very well? If that's true, then as the leader of the garbage time minutes, PP's defensive numbers would certainly take a hit.

It might affect some numbers; but I think DARKO is more sensitive to who you share the floor with (and play against).

A decline in defensive performance could indicate that

1) He is playing against more offensively capable first units and his defense looks worse by comparison
2) He’s in worse lineups overall (defensively) compared to past seasons
3) He’s actually performing worse on defense, perhaps in ways that are not immediately obvious

I honestly can’t say which, he seems pretty much the same defensively to my eyes, so I’d lean towards 1/2
 

lovegtm

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Moving Devizier's post from the Sixers thread over here because he said similar things to you.

Also, I don't think DARKO clears out garbage time minutes. Haven't people said that the Cs garbage time units haven't been fairing very well? If that's true, then as the leader of the garbage time minutes, PP's defensive numbers would certainly take a hit.
The garbage time minutes are beyond abysmal, but the defensive part of that has been OK. Regardless, NBA stats really need to improve on garbage time handling. It's really skewed.Screenshot 2024-12-22 at 11.17.33.png
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Moving Devizier's post from the Sixers thread over here because he said similar things to you.

Also, I don't think DARKO clears out garbage time minutes. Haven't people said that the Cs garbage time units haven't been fairing very well? If that's true, then as the leader of the garbage time minutes, PP's defensive numbers would certainly take a hit.
Yeah my guess is that Pritchard's DDPM is a just normalizing as his minutes/usage increase.
 

InstaFace

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Also, I don't think DARKO clears out garbage time minutes. Haven't people said that the Cs garbage time units haven't been fairing very well? If that's true, then as the leader of the garbage time minutes, PP's defensive numbers would certainly take a hit.
From what I've read of their methodology, they do not adjust for in-game context such as garbage time or (to take an example near to Pritchard's heart) filtering heaves, or the like. CleaningTheGlass does a very good job of this, however, so if you're able to find some facts that illustrate something over on CTG, they can be relied upon for being very well-adjusted for game context.

And yes, in garbage time, our lineup is often "Pritchard and 4 guys who would never sniff a playoff rotation", so he suffers statistically a little bit in order to be the one providing some semblance of running an offense out there. It also helps him put up some minutes and numbers, which I think he likes.
 

slamminsammya

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I don’t suspect a guy getting regular minutes like Pritchard would have his DARKO swayed much by garbage time just because i think it’s a pretty small portion of minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don’t suspect a guy getting regular minutes like Pritchard would have his DARKO swayed much by garbage time just because i think it’s a pretty small portion of minutes.
He’s not even playing those Walsh/Baylor/Springer minutes this year either. He’s getting pulled for them now rather than being the guy subbing in late.
 

benhogan

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He’s not even playing those Walsh/Baylor/Springer minutes this year either. He’s getting pulled for them now rather than being the guy subbing in late.
Pritchard's DARKO's defensive cliff dive started 80 games ago (WBCD posted a DPM-D curve for PP in the 76ers thread)

So we're all just trying to rationalize why that happened when to the eye his defense has been pretty much in line.

I can see playing during garbage time impacting PP's DPM-D last year
 

chilidawg

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Pritchard's DARKO's defensive cliff dive started 80 games ago (WBCD posted a DPM-D curve for PP in the 76ers thread)

So we're all just trying to rationalize why that happened when to the eye his defense has been pretty much in line.

I can see playing during garbage time impacting PP's DPM-D last year
The clean up crew last year all had great D-Ratings, and mostly good Net Ratings. This year the garbage guys have excellent defensive numbers again, but have been mostly terrible offensively so their net ratings are lousy. I don't think garbage time last year effected PP's Darko numbers substantially.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2023-24&TeamID=1610612738&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING
 

benhogan

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The clean up crew last year all had great D-Ratings, and mostly good Net Ratings. This year the garbage guys have excellent defensive numbers again, but have been mostly terrible offensively so their net ratings are lousy. I don't think garbage time last year effected PP's Darko numbers substantially.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?Season=2023-24&TeamID=1610612738&dir=A&sort=DEF_RATING
PP's OnCourt has been excellent and +/- has been positive for two years now.

We're trying to figure out why his DPM-D has dropped so much over the last 80 games.

Any theories or do you think he is worse defensively?
 

slamminsammya

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PP's OnCourt has been excellent and +/- has been positive for two years now.

We're trying to figure out why his DPM-D has dropped so much over the last 80 games.

Any theories or do you think he is worse defensively?
it’s not always the case that a models output changing is reflective of a change in what’s actually happening. these models always struggle with disaggregating teammate contributions and it could just be an artifact of that
 

chilidawg

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PP's OnCourt has been excellent and +/- has been positive for two years now.

We're trying to figure out why his DPM-D has dropped so much over the last 80 games.

Any theories or do you think he is worse defensively?
Great question. I'm going to go with worse defensively, but I can't defend it with anything concrete. His +/- is good but not great this year, compared to the rest of the regulars (except Jrue). What's his O-Darko? Seems like he's been great offensively this year, maybe that's a little offset by getting exposed defensively in a greater role.

Edit: Or what SS said. He's wicked smart.

Edit 2: NBA.com ratings lends credence to my idea. He's last among the regulars in Drating and 2nd in O Rating. Hence his good +/- is in spite of a drop off defensively.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Great question. I'm going to go with worse defensively, but I can't defend it with anything concrete. His +/- is good but not great this year, compared to the rest of the regulars (except Jrue). What's his O-Darko? Seems like he's been great offensively this year, maybe that's a little offset by getting exposed defensively in a greater role.

Edit: Or what SS said. He's wicked smart.

Edit 2: NBA.com ratings lends credence to my idea. He's last among the regulars in Drating and 2nd in O Rating. Hence his good +/- is in spite of a drop off defensively.
Ask and ye shall receive. PP O-DPM:

93691

And just to post it in this thread, PP and Tyrese Maxey D-DPM

93692
 

LA_33

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I’d suspect two things about those D-DPM results:

1. I think it’s probably over-attributing team/lineup-wide defensive drop off (in a relative sense) to Pritchard playing more over the same stretch, when I don’t believe those two things are necessarily all that causal.

The C’s haven’t been quite as good defensively, relative to the rest of the league, since the second half of the regular season last year.

And while that same time frame also saw more minutes for Pritchard (esp. this year) I don’t think he’s the one driving it, primarily.

He might look slightly worse because his increased minutes mostly mean the C’s don’t have White/Jrue in the backcourt.

But Porzingis also missed a lot of those same games, and he matters more to the defense than Pritchard does, even compared to Jrue.

I also think some of the other regulars have coasted just a little on D late last year and early this year, again during a time when they were also trying to rest Jrue more, so Pritchard was playing a lot of those “slightly coasting, as a team” minutes.

He can be slightly improved individually on D, and all of those other things would still outweigh that from a team-wide defensive impact perspective, and as I understand D-DPM, it’s mostly measuring the relative lineup-wide effects of a player being on the floor.

2. In addition to to all of that, even half a season last year and three months this year is a small sample size for a highly-adjusted stat like DPM.

So some of the drop might just be random noise.
 

lovegtm

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You could really see the offensive limitations of PP and DWhite and Jrue last night. They're very good complementary players, but they absolutely depend on Tatum and Brown to initiate actions or bend the defense.

Brown didn't play well in the 3rd quarter, but the rough stretches started in the 2Q when he was out, and then things were bleh again in the 2nd half when he sat. Cs really need him or Tatum out there at all times against a good defensive team.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I also think some of the other regulars have coasted just a little on D late last year and early this year, again during a time when they were also trying to rest Jrue more, so Pritchard was playing a lot of those “slightly coasting, as a team” minutes.
The teammate thing is likely a good portion of the answer, and I agree that to my eye, they have not been "clamps" like they were last year. D-DPM for the other 5 non-JT wings/guards. White has a somewhat similar drop-off; Jrue and JB's are more gradual.

But Sam is still going up! I wonder why.

93724
 

RorschachsMask

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Pritchard is second on the Celtics in EPM lol, and 4th in LEBRON, behind Tatum, KP, and White, while Pritch is 29th overall. DPM is the negative outlier, only has him 5th on the team, 73rd overall. BPM is caca, but he’s second of the team in that as well. Crazy start for him.

People should obviously never use advanced stat as an outright ranking system, is just a piece of the puzzle. But the point is, by any measure, dude is having a great season lol.
 
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lovegtm

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Pritchard is second on the Celtics in EPM lol, and 4th in LEBRON, behind Tatum, KP, and White, while Pritch is 29th overall. DPM is the negative outlier, only has him 5th on the team, 73rd overall. BPM is caca, but he’s second of the team in that as well. Crazy start for him.

People should obviously never use advanced stat as an outright ranking system, is just a piece of the puzzle. But the point is, by any measure, dude is having a great season lol.
I wonder whether they're leaning into zone this hard to give him more ways to stay on the floor defensively. Spo used to do this a lot with the smaller Miami guards.
 

RorschachsMask

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I wonder whether they're leaning into zone this hard to give him more ways to stay on the floor defensively. Spo used to do this a lot with the smaller Miami guards.
The offensive upside Pritchard gives them? You gotta try anything to keep him on the floor lol. The results of the zone haven’t been great, though these numbers are from before yesterday’s game. I think in the games that matter, they’d significantly up the ball pressure when going zone, which makes all the difference.



View: https://twitter.com/WSpooney/status/1873839366520660401
 

lovegtm

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The offensive upside Pritchard gives them? You gotta try anything to keep him on the floor lol. The results of the zone haven’t been great, though these numbers are from before yesterday’s game. I think in the games that matter, they’d significantly up the ball pressure when going zone, which makes all the difference.



View: https://twitter.com/WSpooney/status/1873839366520660401
I do wonder how much better the zone can get, given personnel and that they've just started doing it hard. There are worse things to do with the long regular season than getting tons of reps in a new defense.
 

chilidawg

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I do wonder how much better the zone can get, given personnel and that they've just started doing it hard. There are worse things to do with the long regular season than getting tons of reps in a new defense.
It's one of the best things they can do in the regular season, along with getting the deep bench guys enough minutes to figure out what they've go there.
 

TheRooster

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I think our guy may officially be a better NBA player than FVV. And yes, I realize his role is different
 

The Mort Report

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Ah I missed that part. Even better.
Oh I love what Joe does, have since the days of people bitching about his timeout usage. He's always trying to find an edge, and even when some stuff doesn't work it doesn't deter him from continuing to try new stuff in the regular season. Honestly I think PP is a player that has benefited most from this, Joe's willingness to put him in positions a lot for coaches wouldn't and it allowed him to grow in ways his biggest backers on draft night couldn't have imagined
 

benhogan

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I think our guy may officially be a better NBA player than FVV. And yes, I realize his role is different
I love me some Payton & what he does for Boston, especially at the price he is paid. He's like an adrenalin shot every time he touches the ball. PP is the type of player the NBA Media should be celebrating nightly on TNT (put him in the 3pt contest).

Just note, DARKO (DPM) rates Fred VanVleet very highly (TOP30ish, which feels kind of high for me). There actually may be an FVV/Whitmore for Jimmy Butler fake trade at work here the more I look at it.
 

lovegtm

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They would, if they didn’t worry constantly about their jobs. Do we think Joe constantly worries about his job?
I'm sure that, until he won the title, he knew he there was risk. My guess is that he's really good (better than more politically-minded coaches) at getting himself to an intense place where he doesn't care, and is ok taking risks to maximize overall EV.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I'm sure that, until he won the title, he knew he there was risk. My guess is that he's really good (better than more politically-minded coaches) at getting himself to an intense place where he doesn't care, and is ok taking risks to maximize overall EV.
This, plus he may have calculated that the way he got the job gave him a 2-3 year grace period, and a pretty good comfort level that even if he didn’t stay with the Celtics, he’d find other jobs based on his resume as teams would understand he may have been prematurely thrust into the head coaching job.
 

Eddie Jurak

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They would, if they didn’t worry constantly about their jobs. Do we think Joe constantly worries about his job?
That's not a good reason (accurate though it may be).

Certain people and even coaches look at that statement and think of it as the coach saying "I'm not focused on winning" even though a coach who undertsands how to develop players and strategies may, over a season, actually win more than the "focus 100% on winning each game" coach.

Tom Thibodeau is in his 14th year of coaching. In his first year, his team made round 3 of the playoffs, but lost 4-1. And he has never been back. His career in playoff terms:
  • Round 3 exit
  • Round 1 exit
  • Round 2 exit
  • Round 1 exit
  • Round 2 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 1 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 1 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 2 exit
  • Round 2 exit
For his career, he is 38-47 as a playoff coach.

Maybe he doesn't get the most out of his teams because if his decade long insistence on burning out his starters instead of developing a bench.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That's not a good reason (accurate though it may be).

Certain people and even coaches look at that statement and think of it as the coach saying "I'm not focused on winning" even though a coach who undertsands how to develop players and strategies may, over a season, actually win more than the "focus 100% on winning each game" coach.

Tom Thibodeau is in his 14th year of coaching. In his first year, his team made round 3 of the playoffs, but lost 4-1. And he has never been back. His career in playoff terms:
  • Round 3 exit
  • Round 1 exit
  • Round 2 exit
  • Round 1 exit
  • Round 2 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 1 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 1 exit
  • Miss
  • Round 2 exit
  • Round 2 exit
For his career, he is 38-47 as a playoff coach.

Maybe he doesn't get the most out of his teams because if his decade long insistence on burning out his starters instead of developing a bench.
Doesn’t Thibs longevity that you pointed out play directly into Lose’s point?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Doesn’t Thibs longevity that you pointed out play directly into Lose’s point?
Thank you. Thibs was a highly regarded assistant who was pretty much guaranteed a second and third job when he was hired for his first unless he did something dreadful. Like, worse than not keeping it in his pants, it would seem.

But most coaches don’t see to have that kind of foresight and the nerve to risk wins now for the greater good of the team.
 

DavidTai

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Honestly I think PP is a player that has benefited most from this, Joe's willingness to put him in positions a lot for coaches wouldn't and it allowed him to grow in ways his biggest backers on draft night couldn't have imagined
Isn't some of this due to Mazzulla's time as an assistant coach working with the deep bench?

Some posters have said Payton has always had this in his bag, just hadn't been allowed to utilize them, so surely Mazzulla would've been pondering ways to use Payton. Might have had a lot to do with why Payton was willing to extend with a coach who knew him despite not playing much the previous year.
 

tbrown_01923

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Idk, Payton bag is much deeper now. He's stronger, better use of angles, more of a threat to get into the paint to score which creates enough space on perimeter to get his jumper off. He's a different player now than 2yrs ago
 

slamminsammya

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Yeah, there were clearly parts of his bag that he realized didn’t work against NBA starters and he had to adjust. Remember all the times he’d dribble into the paint and get stuck / get blocked / turn it over?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Maybe he doesn't get the most out of his teams because if his decade long insistence on burning out his starters instead of developing a bench.
Maybe this should go in the NYK thread but just as an aside, in a meaningless game in January, Thibs last night played all of his starters over 40 minutes while Daignault was playing a two-way player. NYK lost anyways.

Maybe Thibs relfexively pushes so hard because if he didn't eek out every single regular season win he could, he might not be coaching anymore but with a team like NYK, you'd think he'd like to position them as best as possible for the playoffs.
 

tbrown_01923

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Yeah, there were clearly parts of his bag that he realized didn’t work against NBA starters and he had to adjust. Remember all the times he’d dribble into the paint and get stuck / get blocked / turn it over?
Or pickup the ball and have to throw it back to 1/2 court because nothing else (hyperbole). But imo it's those improvements in the paint that has opened his version of the laser/bomb show
 

Euclis20

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That article had me looking up his dad, who was 6'6 230 and was a D1 tight end for Oklahoma. Too bad for Payton he topped out at 6'1.