Payton Pritchard: Season Savior

lexrageorge

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TJ is a pass-first PG that excels at picking up full-court on-ball pressure. A very reluctant 3pt shooter whereas Payton launches immediately with any opening.

IMHO the player that PP most resembles is Bryn Forbes (6'2"), a small off-guard that shoots 3s at 41%. Bryn had a few decent seasons at SAS, and started for a playoff team but never got paid. His size has killed any shooting value he holds and he's bounced around the league for a few seasons now. Bryn topped out at $4M/yr

PP will struggle to get paid no matter where he ends up. Unless you're a lightning-quick PG, you need length/size in the switch everything NBA.


https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/forbebr01.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pritcpa01.html
And the bolded is exactly what keeps Pritchard's agent awake at night. One way for his client to get paid better than Forbes is to get PP onto a team where he can have a regular role and potentially put up POINTZ. And POINTZ can lead to $$$. The delta between Forbes and McConnell is life changing money for a player like Pritchard.
 

joe dokes

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And the bolded is exactly what keeps Pritchard's agent awake at night. One way for his client to get paid better than Forbes is to get PP onto a team where he can have a regular role and potentially put up POINTZ. And POINTZ can lead to $$$. The delta between Forbes and McConnell is life changing money for a player like Pritchard.
It only takes one mid-level contract lasting 2-3 years to get life-changing money. To me, 3-4M/yr for even 2 years pretty close to that. PP will get his.
 

benhogan

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It only takes one mid-level contract lasting 2-3 years to get life-changing money. To me, 3-4M/yr for even 2 years pretty close to that. PP will get his.
If he is willing to take $3-4M/yr for 2-3 yrs then I'd love for Brad to extend him as the 10/11th man.

BUT he and his agent are probably dreaming of a TOP7/rotational spot in the NBA with greater riches (a TJ deal).

I'd love to see him go to PDX this summer. They could use his bench shooting. Local boy makes good is always a fun thing for the fans.
 

Devizier

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TJ McConnell was a decent overpay. I am unsure many GMs look at that deal and say to themselves let’s get us the next TJ at that price.
All those role players are going to be paid depending on need/context. It’s just so hard to predict. Look at all those crazy big man contracts from a few years back. If someone with space and no where to spend it wants Pritchard, he will get paid. Putting up empty numbers somewhere certainly raises that likelihood.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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IMHO the player that PP most resembles is Bryn Forbes (6'2"), a small off-guard that shoots 3s at 41%. Bryn had a few decent seasons at SAS, and started for a playoff team but never got paid. His size has killed any shooting value he holds and he's bounced around the league for a few seasons now. Bryn topped out at $4M/yr
Bryn Forbes seems like a good comp but Seth Curry also seems to be a good comp (same size; shooting over 40% from 3P; Curry has a lifetime Asst% of 13.3, which is comparable to PP's Asst% of 15.6).

Seth managed to get a 4/$32M contract in 2019. I'm sure PP sees that and thinks, "Why not me?"
 

mcpickl

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I see the 9-12 guys as largely dependant on circumstances, particularly which of our top 8 is out. If it's one of the combo guards (smart, white, Brogdon), it's gonna be Pritchard who gets the first chance. If it's a big wing (tatum, brown, grant), Hauser gets his shot. If it's our floor spacing big (Horford), it will be muscala. If it's our rim running big (rob), kornet gets the ball.

The beauty of this rotation (other than the total depth), is the flexibility of a lot of these guys to play up or down from their natural position. I think the first consideration is who is being replaced, but if one of those four isn't working they've got options.
This is spot on.

The only playoff games last year the Celtics played more than 8 guys outside of garbage time were the last two Brooklyn games when they were easing Rob back in, and the first two Golden State games when Theis played a total of 11 first half minutes.

They'll surely stick to 8 again this year when healthy. And having this as depth over last season is a huge upgrade.

Kornet in Theis spot
Hauser in Nesmith spot
Pritchard and Muscala in spots that were unfilled last season.

Nobody outside of Theis and Nesmith(in one game both Smart and Horford missed) played outside of garbage time.

Having 4 extra guys you can go to with at least some level of trust is such a luxury. Depth shouldn't be a concern this season,
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bryn Forbes seems like a good comp but Seth Curry also seems to be a good comp (same size; shooting over 40% from 3P; Curry has a lifetime Asst% of 13.3, which is comparable to PP's Asst% of 15.6).

Seth managed to get a 4/$32M contract in 2019. I'm sure PP sees that and thinks, "Why not me?"
That’s the type of comp Pritchard himself sees. He wants that 4/$32m. I’d view him more as a poor man’s Seth Curry, which is Forbes, who is more prone to sign like a 3/$12m. Obv where he ends up next year and his role/playing time will determine which end he is closer.

The only thing he has in common with TJ McConnell is their size, position and pigmentation. One is a pure shooter in space while the other a non-shooting defensive grinder……TJ has 2 triple-doubles on his resume as well as an NBA record 9 steals in ONE HALF! Poor man’s Fat Lever?
 

BaseballJones

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Anticipated playoff rotation...

Starters: Smart, Brown, Tatum, Horford, RWilliams
Main subs: Brogdon, White, GWilliams
Situational bench players: Pritchard, Hauser, Kornet, Muscala

I mean, that's legitimately 12 players deep, even though the bottom four guys have limited utility. There's all roles they CAN play (effectively, too).

They can go big (their starting lineup is big). They can go small (using GWilliams at the 5 and Tatum at the 4). They can go with a defensive heavy lineup. They can go with a bunch of shooters. They've got stars and perfectly positioned role players.

In sum...this is as good a roster as I've seen them have in a long time. My expectations are....high.
 

benhogan

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That’s the type of comp Pritchard himself sees. He wants that 4/$32m. I’d view him more as a poor man’s Seth Curry, which is Forbes, who is more prone to sign like a 3/$12m. Obv where he ends up next year and his role/playing time will determine which end he is closer.

The only thing he has in common with TJ McConnell is their size, position and pigmentation. One is a pure shooter in space while the other a non-shooting defensive grinder……TJ has 2 triple-doubles on his resume as well as an NBA record 9 steals in ONE HALF! Poor man’s Fat Lever?
The reality is PP is a poor man's Bryn. In seasons 3 & 4 Forbes started 143/145 games for a .500 Spurs team, where he shot 41% from 3 on 5.5 attempts/gm with 11.5ppg.

I'm not saying Payton couldn't do that, but he hasn't. Plus his counting #s have dropped every season :eek:
 

HomeRunBaker

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The reality is PP is a poor man's Bryn. In seasons 3 & 4 Forbes started 143/145 games for a .500 Spurs team, where he shot 41% from 3 on 5.5 attempts/gm with 11.5ppg.

I'm not saying Payton couldn't do that, but he hasn't. Plus his counting #s have dropped every season :eek:
Forbes is bigger so he matched up a little better against starting units and he had a specific role in that DRozan/Aldridge offense that would also have fit Pritchard perfectly. I don’t think he’s that good a player, I don’t think Pritchard is either but their skillsets are fairly similar.
 

Kliq

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Seth Curry is also more of an off-guard while PP is very much a primary ball-handler. What makes him intriguing is not just his shooting, but his ability to potentially run the offense in a more traditional PG if he gets more time as an NBA player and be more of a shot-creator than just a floor-spacing shooter.
 

shoelace

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I'm not saying Payton couldn't do that, but he hasn't. Plus his counting #s have dropped every season :eek:
Sure, but that makes sense, doesn't it? Smart, White and Brogdon are all so much better than him. Aaron Nesmith has started 40 games this season for the Pacers, he has already surpassed the number of regular season minutes he played in his entire Celtics career. I haven't watched Nesmith much this year, but he's getting an opportunity to reestablish some value now. I don't see Pritchard as a starter, but it's not hard to imagine him finding a more significant role on a mediocre or bad team that allows him a chance to regularly get the ball in his hands and get some shots up.
 

Jimbodandy

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Seth Curry is also more of an off-guard while PP is very much a primary ball-handler. What makes him intriguing is not just his shooting, but his ability to potentially run the offense in a more traditional PG if he gets more time as an NBA player and be more of a shot-creator than just a floor-spacing shooter.
Inasmuch as PP is a fantastic ballhandler, yes it distinguishes him from Curry there. But he has a ways to go before anyone should see him running an offense as a traditional PG and/or a shot creator. He may be able to do those things, but he never really has.
 

joe dokes

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If he is willing to take $3-4M/yr for 2-3 yrs then I'd love for Brad to extend him as the 10/11th man.

BUT he and his agent are probably dreaming of a TOP7/rotational spot in the NBA with greater riches (a TJ deal).
Probably true as to his dreams. I still think he has an NBA 2nd-contract floor of "enough money to live comfortably without working again." (though I have not done the math).
He's an interesting case. I'm sure there are many others in the NBA. Scalabrine grossed 20M over 11 nba seasons career without ever making more than 3.2.

EDIT: you know what...never mind. PP has already grossed 4M, and is in line for another 4 if the Celtics keep him next year. Let him try to get whatever the hell he wants. He's not going to condemn his future family to a life less well-lived.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Seth Curry is also more of an off-guard while PP is very much a primary ball-handler. What makes him intriguing is not just his shooting, but his ability to potentially run the offense in a more traditional PG if he gets more time as an NBA player and be more of a shot-creator than just a floor-spacing shooter.
I think PP can handle the ball but I don't think he's a primary ball-handler. I'd say PP is an off-guard who can handle some secondary ball-handling duties.
I would much prefer Seth Curry at 4/32 than Pritchard on the same deal
I'd rather have PP at 3/$18M than Curry at 4/$32M. I also think that PP is a slightly better defensive player than Seth but agree that Seth is a better shooter, which is the important thing for both of them.
 

benhogan

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Sure, but that makes sense, doesn't it? Smart, White and Brogdon are all so much better than him. Aaron Nesmith has started 40 games this season for the Pacers, he has already surpassed the number of regular season minutes he played in his entire Celtics career. I haven't watched Nesmith much this year, but he's getting an opportunity to reestablish some value now. I don't see Pritchard as a starter, but it's not hard to imagine him finding a more significant role on a mediocre or bad team that allows him a chance to regularly get the ball in his hands and get some shots up.
Oh yea, I'm not complaining about PP's minutes' decline. Replacing his playoff minutes with Malcolm Brogdon is going to be a beautiful thing

Nesmith is a good comp of a player not earning but getting a chance to start. I'm sure @radsoxfan is firing up his Nesmith DARKO curves.

Nesmith is still terrible, but he does play every game with high energy. Nesmith/Theis were basically salary filler
I think PP is a better player than Aaron, but AN may get extended due to age + opportunity.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Oh yea, I'm not complaining about PP's minutes' decline. Replacing his playoff minutes with Malcolm Brogdon is going to be a beautiful thing

Nesmith is a good comp of a player not earning but getting a chance to start. I'm sure @radsoxfan is firing up his Nesmith DARKO curves.

Nesmith is still terrible, but he does play every game with high energy. Nesmith/Theis were basically salary filler
I think PP is a better player than Aaron, but AN may get extended due to age + opportunity.
Nesmith has had an interesting year that his (lack of) consistency isn’t too different than it was here. He’s had multiple 4-5 game stretches of 2-18 shooting threes then he’ll light it up with a 4-5 night every now and then. His size and defensive versatility are his best attributes on the nights he’s giving the Pacers nothing offensively. I haven’t looked closely recently but he seems to play much better when Haliburton is on the floor.
 

CreightonGubanich

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Size alone makes Hauser a better fit. Their switchy defensive scheme will always favor length on D. That's why we saw a closing lineup of Al/TL/Grant/Tatum/White dominate yesterday. Expect the C's to keep on bringing larger skilled players while avoiding shrimpy guards. Sorry Yam Madar

Hauser has consistently shot over 40% from 3 at every level of basketball over the last 6yrs. 3yrs at Marquette. 1yr at Virginia. 1yr at the NBA/Maine and this NBA season. He presently sits at 14th in the NBA (41.7%) on decent volume. Don't bank on him pumkining (he already had a month-long/hit-the-rookie wall slump) below 40%. His stroke is honed. Sam has also successfully adjusted to a higher/quicker release.

Will he wilt in the playoffs? You want to go with players that can get off shots in the half-court against a tighter defense. I'd bank on taller shooters getting 3s off in that scenario (Steph Curry aside).
Well said - I don't think there's any reason to think Hauser's true talent level is anything less than that of a 40% three point shooter. We've seen him start the season hot, navigate a shooting slump, and come out the other side of it already this year. He's also shown the ability to be more than just a stationary catch-and-shoot guy, which is one of the things that separates a guy like Kyle Korver from the Steve Novaks of the world. Hauser, like Korver, moves well without the ball, coming off screens and repositioning himself in order to get open. He also has that little Ray Allen slide step, where you think he's spotted up in the corner, but as he catches the ball, he slides a little deeper into the corner away from the defender in order to beat the contest. All that to say, I think he's a real offensive weapon, as opposed to just a guy who can shoot 40% on wide open catches.

Defensively, we'll see. He's looked good this season, even when teams have tried to pick on him. The playoffs are just a different animal, so I remain a bit skeptical until we see it play out over a whole playoff series. But I do feel better about Sam Hauser holding up against switches than I do about, say, Mike Muscala.
 

TripleOT

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I am hoping that Houser really works on getting stronger. Hauser with a stronger core would be a lot scarier a weapon.
 

RG33

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I am hoping that Houser really works on getting stronger. Hauser with a stronger core would be a lot scarier a weapon.
Yeah, maybe it is the cornbread white guy thing, but Hauser does still seem scrawny on TV compared to other NBA players, despite being 6’8” and 215lbs (I’m 6’5” and 215lbs and would look like Olive Oyl out there) . I remember when someone posted a picture of Gordon Hayward like 4-5 years ago, right before he had signed with the Celts and after he had made the leap to “all-star caliber NBA player”, next to a couple of up and coming college players, and the difference in his size and width and overall build was stark compared to the young’ns (and what he had been 3-4 years prior). You forget sometimes how big and strong the average guys are (and have to be) nevermind the elite ones (See: Tatum, Jayson 3-4 years ago).
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, maybe it is the cornbread white guy thing, but Hauser does still seem scrawny on TV compared to other NBA players, despite being 6’8” and 215lbs (I’m 6’5” and 215lbs and would look like Olive Oyl out there) . I remember when someone posted a picture of Gordon Hayward like 4-5 years ago, right before he had signed with the Celts and after he had made the leap to “all-star caliber NBA player”, next to a couple of up and coming college players, and the difference in his size and width and overall build was stark compared to the young’ns (and what he had been 3-4 years prior). You forget sometimes how big and strong the average guys are (and have to be) nevermind the elite ones (See: Tatum, Jayson 3-4 years ago).
I was always impressed at the potency of “vitamins” that you can acquire in Utah. Good for Gordon that he consumed during his contract year.
 

Smokey Joe

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I was always impressed at the potency of “vitamins” that you can acquire in Utah. Good for Gordon that he consumed during his contract year.
In 1994, the Utah senator Orrin Hatch sponsored a bill that essentially removed the “Supplements Industry” from oversight from the FDA which has led to the current situation where approximately 80% of the vitamins and supplements on sale do not contain what they say they do on the label. Oddly enough, Orrin Hatch’s son Scott, was a lobbyist for the supplement industry at that time. Coincidentally, Orrin Hatch owned 300K shares in one of the major Utah supplement companies.
“Supplements” has been one of the biggest industries in Utah since.

so yeah, they got some potent stuff there.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In 1994, the Utah senator Orrin Hatch sponsored a bill that essentially removed the “Supplements Industry” from oversight from the FDA which has led to the current situation where approximately 80% of the vitamins and supplements on sale do not contain what they say they do on the label. Oddly enough, Orrin Hatch’s son Scott, was a lobbyist for the supplement industry at that time. Coincidentally, Orrin Hatch owned 300K shares in one of the major Utah supplement companies.
“Supplements” has been one of the biggest industries in Utah since.

so yeah, they got some potent stuff there.
Ha! This is awesome! Good find.
 

lovegtm

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Honestly pretty impressive for someone of PP's status. Give that man more shots; he has the winning attitude.
 

InstaFace

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times like these it's helpful to remember that he's tiny on the NBA court, but he's still 6'1". He has never been a "short guy" in the rest of his life except professionally.
 

Euclis20

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Tough crowd. What's a guy gotta due to earn a thread bump?
There's just not that much to talk about. It's nice seeing him do well and if he gets real playoff minutes there's a reasonable chance he isn't too bad, but we all know that if he gets actual playoff minutes in non-blowout games, something has gone very wrong because the 3 guys in front of him have some combination of foul trouble or major injury. It's hard for me to see any scenario in which he gets real playing time based on his own performance and not something going really badly for 1-2 of the guys in front of him.
 

Imbricus

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I like Pritch a lot (and I think many here undervalue him), but I agree he's got certain limitations that are problematic. I was happy for this game today. I think he's a decent rebounder for a guard because even though he's small, he's smart and works at boxing out and being in the right place to get the ball. He can light it up from three sometimes, but he is also looking to pass and just get the offense flowing (he likes to be in motion, probing). He can run an offense (I disagree with the posters here who think he doesn't have point guard skills).

But today we also saw the problematic piece too. His lack of size and athleticism make it way too easy for him to get blocked when he drives into a thicket of people near the bucket. He just doesn't have a good role here now, with Brogdon and White and Smart (and Davison the junior point guard in the wings). That he gets moved this summer seems like a foregone conclusion. I have read that the Hawks had some interest in him; maybe even more interest after today?
 

TripleOT

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I like Pritch a lot (and I think many here undervalue him), but I agree he's got certain limitations that are problematic. I was happy for this game today. I think he's a decent rebounder for a guard because even though he's small, he's smart and works at boxing out and being in the right place to get the ball. He can light it up from three sometimes, but he is also looking to pass and just get the offense flowing (he likes to be in motion, probing). He can run an offense (I disagree with the posters here who think he doesn't have point guard skills).

But today we also saw the problematic piece too. His lack of size and athleticism make it way too easy for him to get blocked when he drives into a thicket of people near the bucket. He just doesn't have a good role here now, with Brogdon and White and Smart (and Davison the junior point guard in the wings). That he gets moved this summer seems like a foregone conclusion. I have read that the Hawks had some interest in him; maybe even more interest after today?
Pritchard is The Glove compared to Trae Young defensively. He could thrive on a team with big wings and a rim protector, like the Nets, Raptors, Jazz, and Wolves.
 

TripleOT

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Hell he would thrive on the Celtics, if we didn't have better players taking his minutes.
It was a meaningless game against back of the rotation, but a 30 point triple double with nine threes was a nice way to end a frustrating regular season. He will eventually move on, and hopefully it won’t be another Paul Westphal situation.