Pedey, Trade deadline, HOF

threecy · Jul 21, 2015

Career OPS:

Home: .859
Away: .758

Fred Lynn also looked like a Hall of Famer before he left Boston.

DJnVa · Jul 21, 2015

Flynn4ever said:
, I see games rarely, but if captain intangibles is a first ballot guy, we also have a guy on that path. If we let him go, would that hurt his chances?

Yes--he hits much better in Fenway. But he'd have to play another 10+ seasons to get to where Jeter ended up.

Interestingly, both Pedroia and Jeter have the same 162 game average in HRs and RBI--15 and 77 and their OPS+ is the same at 115, but Jeter has him by about 10 points in BA and Pedroia hasn't hit his decline phase yet--which means there's going to be a growing gulf in counting stats like hits--he's got 2000 fewer than Jeter. That's a huge number.

But Pedroia does have a MVP to his name, unlike Jeter, and the ROY and 2 rings help with HOF voters but I think he's going to need about 1000 more hits (2500 or so) to get there.

Devizier · Jul 21, 2015

Pedroia has six years left on his contract after this one.

Barring catastrophic injury, he should be looking at Bobby Grich territory when his current contract expires.

SoxLegacy · Jul 21, 2015

For the love of God, Pedroia is not going to be traded by the Sox. His value to the team is so much greater than it would be for another organization. He's a better player playing in Fenway than on the road. Ownership and the front office have spelled it out on numerous occasions--they want more players like Pedroia. Along with Ortiz--and in a different manner--he is the face of the franchise. He's got a limited no-trade clause (according to Cots, though it's been said that it's a full no trade in other threads). He's a leader on the team, one that can help the younger guys coming up. Finally, trading Pedroia doesn't make the Sox a better team.

As to your other question, he's amassed a WAR of 44.7 in 10 seasons--by the end of this one, it should be somewhere around 46 if his previous totals are any indication. Biggio just got elected to the HoF with a 65 WAR. Pedroia's JAWS score is 22nd on the list at 42.7, with the average HoF second baseman's score being JAWS: 56.9 and WAR 69.3. If he continues to play his level of baseball for the next 6 seasons, then I think that the HoF is possible.

Edit: bad math.

smastroyin · Jul 21, 2015

Yeah, Pedroia's chances are going to rest on how he declines and how much counting and value he accumulates off peak. His peak is right in there with the HOF 2Bman.

But, Lou Whitaker had a great career that Dustin could aspire to, and he didn't make it. 2B is strange.

The Gray Eagle · Jul 21, 2015

Pedroia has no-trade protection. He's not going anywhere. Can we please take "trade deadline" out of the title? It's completely irrelevant to a discussion of Pedroia and his chances at the Hall of Fame someday.

drbretto · Jul 21, 2015

I think the biggest hurdle he's going to have is making it through the next 10 years without breaking himself. He plays an aggressive game and injuries aren't exactly his primary concern. My biggest concern with him is that he's not going to make it long enough. He has the talent to make the HoF, I think we can all agree there, but it's going to take some good luck to make it there.

Red(s)HawksFan · Jul 21, 2015

The comparison between Pedroia and Jeter vis a vis Hall of Fame credentials is misguided. They play different positions. Just because Pedroia's numbers fall and will continue to fall short of Jeter's, that has no bearing on his chances for the Hall of Fame. Jeter's offensive numbers put him at or near the top in a lot of categories (#1 in hits and runs scored, for example) amongst SS. Whether Pedroia can say the same at the end of his career with regard to other second basemen will be the biggest factor in his induction. I think he's more likely a Bobby Doerr (middle of the road Hall of Famer) than an all time great at his position. He's on track to get in, but by no means a shoe-in first ballot guy unless there's no one else of note on his ballot.

VTSox · Jul 21, 2015

He has to get through the 2016 season to even appear on the ballot. He's under contract for 6 more seasons, after which he'll still have 5 fewer seasons than Jeter, although as mentioned, that's not a ideal comparison anyway.

I love the guy and hope he plays in Boston for another decade, but it's way too early to think about the HoF.

Toe Nash · Jul 21, 2015

He's borderline even if he sticks around for a while and accumulates numbers. His 7-year peak is 17th in bWAR among 2B, just behind Alomar and Biggio and ahead of Knoblauch. Another 6 seasons (to age 37) at an average of 3.5 WAR (aggressive probably) brings him to 65.7 WAR which would be ahead of Biggio and probably get him in. But, second basemen tend to fall off cliffs in their mid-30s so it's tough to predict that.

SoxJox · Jul 21, 2015

Baseball Reference shows the numbers below. Explanations for the measures are here.

Black Ink Batting - 11 (221), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 57 (447), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 80 (245), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 29 (353), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Second Base (22nd), 44.7 career WAR/40.7 7yr-peak WAR/42.7 JAWS
Average HOF 2B (out of 20) = 69.3 career WAR/44.4 7yr-peak WAR/56.9 JAWS

So, by these measures, Dustin falls short of the HOF.

DJnVa · Jul 21, 2015

Good thing his career isn't over.

grimshaw · Jul 21, 2015

threecy said:
Career OPS:

Home: .859
Away: .758

Fred Lynn also looked like a Hall of Famer before he left Boston.

Gonna guess his elite level defense is going to play a much larger factor in his candidacy. You just can't expect the same offensive numbers as outfielders or there wouldn't be many 2B in at all. They hold catchers to the same hitting standards for the Hall and it doesn't make sense to me that way either.

I'm with Smas that he has been on the right track. I think he needs 5 or more 3 WAR seasons to creep into the high 50's low 60's. He's already shown how valuable he can be with an average bat the past few years. When he isn't just Willie Randolph and is hitting, they are hall of fame caliber years.

He is already 38th in career defensive WAR among 2nd baseman, and will likely be in the top 30 by the end of the season.
I think he'll crack the top 10 by the end of his career.

drbretto · Jul 21, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Good thing his career isn't over.

I was going to make that point as well, but I think it's Sox Jox' point is valid. He's, let's say, half way through his career? Realistically. So even if you double the counting numbers, he falls a little short. His peak (so far) falls a little short. Yes, obviously, he could end up having a better second half of his career than the first half and his peak may not be over yet. It's not impossible and certainly injury plagued seasons could well be dragging him down or something to that effect, but even adjusting for all of that and trying to project it out, it's far from a cut and dry case of a player on track for the Hall of Fame.

Now, all that said, I hope he hasn't hit his peak yet and he plays until he's 44 and makes me look like an idiot.

Savin Hillbilly · Jul 21, 2015

I think he's really going to have to cheat Father Time and his own body to make the Hall, because that's going to require that

a) the offensive Indian summer he's shown this year lasts for a few more years, and
b) the hints of defensive decline he has shown this year don't snowball, and
c) he stays on the field long enough to accumulate some counting stats.

And I think even if all that happens, and things go about as well as we can hope, it's going to be tough to make a case that he belongs while Grich and Whitaker don't.

smastroyin · Jul 21, 2015

The monitors are not made to be extrapolated, though. The Standards test requires thresholds for counting stats which means you spend a large portion of your career accumulating before you get points. Of course he will regress a bit probably in the rate stats, but for instance even if his accumulations are 2/3 done, right now he gets 0 points for his hits, but he will end up getting 4. 0 points now for Rs, on pace for 2. etc.

As for black and grey ink, Biggio had 17 and 104. I don't think Pedroia will play long enough to accumulate all of the counting stats Biggio did, but just to illustrate the point that those HoF averages are based on all positions, and IIRC 2B is the weakest position in the Hall for those types of stats.

Trlicek's Whip · Jul 21, 2015

smastroyin said:
As for black and grey ink, Biggio had 17 and 104. I don't think Pedroia will play long enough to accumulate all of the counting stats Biggio did, but just to illustrate the point that those HoF averages are based on all positions, and IIRC 2B is the weakest position in the Hall for those types of stats.

Biggio and Molitor are his two Baseball Ref comps, so to echo other posters he'll definitely need 10 more years of "not fall off the cliff" statistics to even sniff the HOF.

grimshaw · Jul 21, 2015

Biggio limped in with counting stats, and was an average to below average player his last 8 seasons in the heart of the steroid era.
I don't think counting stats are going to matter as much as rate stats 15 years from now when the dinosaur voters become extinct and more sabermetricians jump in.
There isn't any eye-popping offensive aspect of Pedey's game, but he has been a ROY, MVP, and gone to several all-star games. He just needs those supplemental seasons where he is still earning his money.

On another note - he and Cano are within one career WAR of each other, and Pedey is 9 months younger. It will be interesting to see which one ages more gracefully. Cano may have to move to LF or DH after he hits 35, and his bat has dropped big time the past season+.

Wake's knuckle · Jul 21, 2015

Another thing to consider: Pedroia is a MUCH better defensive player than Jeter, at least according to any metric you care to use, so comparing just their offensive value sells Pedey short. Haha. Plus which, Pedey is probably a better interview.

smastroyin · Jul 21, 2015

FTR, I don't think Pedroia is going to the Hall of Fame. As always, the odds are against him maintaining enough production long enough.

I just think most of the arguments against so far are specious. All we can say right now is that so far Pedroia has not yet earned a trip to the HoF. But there is also nothing in his career to this point that says "there is no chance he makes the Hall of Fame."

drbretto · Jul 21, 2015

I don't think anyone is trying to say he's definitely not going to make it. Though knowing him, the best way to get him to is to tell him he can't...

But I think everyone on this board would love to see him make it, and even I, a hopelessly optimistic homer, feel like it's a tough climb. It's way, way to early to rule him out or call him a lock, but if I had to guess, the needle is leaning more towards no than yes.

There are some good points thrown around in both directions though. His defense and personality should skew things in his favor. but unless he learns hoe to do backflips, it's going to come down to the numbers in the end, and father time is against him.

Knuck49 · Jul 27, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Yes--he hits much better in Fenway. But he'd have to play another 10+ seasons to get to where Jeter ended up.

Interestingly, both Pedroia and Jeter have the same 162 game average in HRs and RBI--15 and 77 and their OPS+ is the same at 115, but Jeter has him by about 10 points in BA and Pedroia hasn't hit his decline phase yet--which means there's going to be a growing gulf in counting stats like hits--he's got 2000 fewer than Jeter. That's a huge number.

But Pedroia does have a MVP to his name, unlike Jeter, and the ROY and 2 rings help with HOF voters but I think he's going to need about 1000 more hits (2500 or so) to get there.

He has the MVP, the two rings, at this rate he might finish his career with 2,400/2,500 hits or so. I think that puts him in Sandberg territory if he ends up in that range. Pedey will never have Sandberg's power numbers, but like Sandberg Pedey has spent a decade in the conversation of the best 2b in his league. Pedey's lifetime BA is .299 to Sandberg's .285. They've both won some gold gloves, been All-Stars. If Boston gets another three or four All-Star-caliber seasons from Pedey I think he has a chance at the HoF. He needs to stay healthy, though.

Al Zarilla · Jul 28, 2015

MLBN did a bit yesterday on the strong crop of young second basemen in the majors right now. First the 25 YO or less group:

Panik
Altuve
Wong
Russell
Peterson?

Then they went on to guys maybe 26 - 28

Kipnis
Dozier
Gordon
Forsythe
LeMahieu

They said second base has gotten to be an offensive position lately compared with the way it used to be, and look at how much better the Yankees were before this because Cano was head and shoulders above everyone else. If I could ever reach through the TV and strangle the three jerks doing the piece...

Oh, one of them said Joe Panik reminded him of a left handed batting Dustin Pedroia, who also always wants the ball hit to him in critical situations. That's all the Pedroia mention. The Cano comment was mind boggling though.

swingin val · Jul 28, 2015

Since Pedroia became a full time player in 2007, Robinson Cano has bested him at the plate every year but 2008 and 2015. It hasn't actually even been that close on the offensive side of things, and their statement about Cano being head and shoulders above everyone else is fairly accurate.

Al Zarilla · Jul 28, 2015

swingin val said:
Since Pedroia became a full time player in 2007, Robinson Cano has bested him at the plate every year but 2008 and 2015. It hasn't actually even been that close on the offensive side of things, and their statement about Cano being head and shoulders above everyone else is fairly accurate.

In terms or WAR, Pedroia and Cano are very close, adding up their prime years. The MLBN piece was about hitting and fielding.

Pedey, Trade deadline, HOF

Member

Cosbologist

Dorito Dawg

Member

New Member

simpering whimperer

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

simpering whimperer

Member

Member

Member

New Member

simpering whimperer

Member

Member

New Member

Member

New Member

Member