Pitching Targets

[nvalvo]

There's a consensus emerging in a few threads that the team has two real needs: a platoon partner for Young in LF that can move Holt back to the super-sub bench role where he's thrived, and another starting pitcher. There's a already a great thread for discussing LF possibilities. Let's talk about pitching targets here.

As I've mentioned in another thread, I'm skeptical that there are any appropriate SP targets, so I doubt a deal gets done. There are a few inter-related reasons for this: the lack of a strong FA SP market this offseason, multiple wildcards keeping decent teams plausibly in contention, and a high number of total rebuilds in the NL. I expect those that are out there to draw a lot of demand and thus prohibitive prices in trade. I'm not eager to send Swihart+ to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz, but I suspect that's how the market's shaping up.

We need to find a starting pitcher who is:

1. More plausible as a playoff starter than Buchholz, Kelly, et al, and
   
2. On a non-contending team (defined semi-arbitrarily as OAK, SD, ATL, HOU, MIN, PHI, CIN, LAA, MIL, ARI), which
3. Does not expect to contend again while the pitcher in question is under contract.

That's a tricky needle to thread. I've identified a few candidates:

• Rich Hill (OAK); it's now a 12 start run of excellence dating back to last September. We should make sure to get team options on Bannister's experiments going forward.
• Drew Pomeranz (SD); tough to evaluate, due to his home parks (COL, OAK, SD) — has he turned a corner? A 2019 FA, his cost in trade is likely to outstrip his actual performance.
• Sonny Gray (OAK); having a terrible season; I assume he'll recover unless something is wrong healthwise, but I can't see Beane selling low on a premier asset.
• Julio Teheran (ATL); Teheran's under a very reasonable contract; the price would likely be insane.
• Rubby de la Rosa (ARI); I'm only sort of kidding. The Diamondbacks sank a lot of resources into starting pitching, but Rubby's been their best SP. The team isn't that bad; I don't think they're selling.
• Ervin Santana (MIN); the best of a very bad lot in Minnesota, he's been allowing a ton of baserunners. I think I'd prefer Buchholz.

Some of these guys probably aren't available, as their teams could credibly be much improved during their years under contract/team control. I see no one of interest on MIL or LAA. PHI and CIN aren't dealing us the young SP they're building around. I don't think NY will deal us Sabathia .

I'm sure there are at least a few more interesting candidates. Who did I miss?

 

[czar]

See, herein lies the rub re: finding another SP for the playoffs...

We know Buchholz can go on a "run" and pitch like a #2 playoff starter. We think Rodriguez can do the same (if healthy). The upside is there, just not the certainty. Seems like the most logical path is making a trade that lessens the downside of throwing (insert Red Sox pitcher X) into a late season must-win game.

Could Rich Hill? I dunno, we need to extrapolate his 12 start stretch and assume he remains healthy all year. Or will his arm fall off / he starts walking people?
Could Pomeranz? Kind of the same thing (even smaller SS of good pitching than Hill). Or is the same Pomeranz of the last 5 years going to return?
Could Chad Bettis? Could Wei-Yin Chen? Could RLDR?

With the market as is (currently -- in mid-May), it's actually somewhat tough to upgrade this rotation in a surefire fashion. There isn't a lot of lockdown talent floating around -- you either pay for a guy like Gray and hope his regression this year is not pure peripheral regression (sadly, I think a lot is), or you roll the dice (i.e., still pay, but maybe less) on other guys who are equally as "unproven" or "unlikely" to be that guy as some of the existing Sox pitchers. This isn't a situation where the team is trotting out a guy who is bad but you know is always going to be bad (Sean O'Sullivan).

The equation probably changes if Buchholz still sucks at the end of May and Rodriguez needs surgery and misses the season and Joe Kelly remains the same mediocre guy he's been the last 3 years, but right now, there's no obvious (reasonably available) slam dunk that makes this team substantially better for the playoffs. I assume things may change between now and the trade deadline, but the reason for those changes are going to be things like a team or two we expect to stay in the race dealing with injuries and ending up 15 games back.

 

[grimshaw]

It's not a real eye popping group of guys, so I'll add some more mediocrity:
Jered Weaver: Last year of his deal
Anibel Sanchez - If the Tigers are out of it, they need a rebuild. He hasn't been good since 2014, but would probably be a marginal upgrade.
CJ Wilson - Signed through 2017 with two option years - though he's 35 and probably not a clear upgrade either.

Yuck.

I watch Pomeranz a lot. He and Rich Hill basically throw the same curve ball that no one can hit and may be the same person. His stuff is great, but he has trouble getting through the order without throwing a billion pitches. That said, I would definitely take him.

Tyson Ross, if he gets healthy, is also the name that is always out there.

The Mets are the one team who may want that bat to put them over the top and could hold all the cards if a team wants to try and Shelby Miller them. Very doubtful though.

 

[DisgruntledSoxFan77]

As much as we need to make a move, I think it's too early to start talking about trades. Too many teams who have yet to realize they don't stand a chance yet. Right now, any discussions about trades are just fantasy, pure and simple

 

[E5 Yaz]

CJ Wilson - Signed through 2017 with two option years - though he's 35 and probably not a clear upgrade either.

Did you even bother to see what's he's doing this season before listing him? He hasn't thrown a pitch since spring training, he's on the 60-day disabled list, and the Angels are "hopeful" that he might be back in June.

Add that to his age and the money, and it doesn't even qualify as a non-starter. It should be a never-raiser.

Honestly, folks; if you're going to go down this wish list path ... at least take the time to look into your suggestions before raising them

 

[grimshaw]

Did you even bother to see what's he's doing this season before listing him? He hasn't thrown a pitch since spring training, he's on the 60-day disabled list, and the Angels are "hopeful" that he might be back in June.

Add that to his age and the money, and it doesn't even qualify as a non-starter. It should be a never-raiser.

Honestly, folks; if you're going to go down this wish list path ... at least take the time to look into your suggestions before raising them

Never-raiser is really witty.
I was just listing three other guys who could be available in trade, not advocating for CJ Wilson. He is on minor league rehab and there is two and a half months until the deadline. C'mon though, if Ervin Santana is on the list, we're basically just showing how there is very little out there.
The only guy I even have any interest in of that crew is Pomeranz, like I said.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Obviously there's going to be a Wait and See for EdRod before DD start looking around for a SP, and meanwhile, Buchholz probably just lucked into at least 3 more starts to show that he can turn a corner and stay around the corner.
Even then that only has us with 4 quality starters, as I'm believing that: Price has turned it around. Wright is exactly what he's looking like. Porcello is a borderline "no. 2". We still need to find someone (jeebuz it would be nice if Clay could be this guy...) to turn it up. The realistic targetable SP's aren't appealing... the ones that might be will cost more than I'm comfortable giving up (Benintendi, et al...). Nobody that will save our rotation is coming in exchange for Owens, Merrero, etc... type guys.

 

[Drek717]

• Julio Teheran (ATL); Teheran's under a very reasonable contract; the price would likely be insane.

To me Teheran is likely to be the prize of this summer if someone gets him from Atlanta. He has a very reasonable contract and he's reaching his physical peak at this point, with his play this season dispelling some of the concerns related to his lackluster 2015.

So to that end what is likely to be defined as "insane"? One obvious match up I can see here is Blake Swihart for Teheran. The Braves lack any kind of long term answer for catcher and the Red Sox appear to prefer Vaz. So how much more than Swihart would be needed for Teheran? A lottery ticket? One of Owens/Johnson? One of the big four (which I'd imagine most here would consider too much)?

I'm of the belief that it wouldn't be anything too absurdly prohibitive beyond Swihart, who himself is a pretty high value piece as an ML ready and tested starting catcher with effectively all of his pre-FA control left.

Bill Shanks, a Fox Sports reporter who covers the Braves, has suggested Swihart + Chavis in this tweet, FYI.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'd be targeting Ricky Nolasco.

Twins are going nowhere, and he's on a fairly reasonable deal that expires after next season. His FIP is 1.00 lower than his 4.74 ERA (same range as Teheran), he's averaging over 6 IP/GS, and his peripherals (especially BB rate) are at least as good as Santana's. Plus he doesn't have a PED suspension history.

Not an overwhelming choice, to say the least.

But there's a better chance Buchholz and/or Kelly turn things around than there is to pry away a really good starter before the deadline. Any teams who are dead in the water for the second wild card will be that way because their pitching stinks.

I think the Twins actually match up quite well with the Sox' surplus pieces, also. Whatever it costs, the price will seem too much to obtain Ricky Nolasco, but milk's going to be expensive this year.

 

[czar]

Twins are going nowhere, and he's on a fairly reasonable deal that expires after next season. His FIP is 1.00 lower than his 4.74 ERA (same range as Teheran), he's averaging over 6 IP/GS, and his peripherals (especially BB rate) are at least as good as Santana's. Plus he doesn't have a PED suspension history.

Nolasco has always massively underperformed his DIPS peripherals (career 4.55 ERA, career 3.81/3.78 FIP/xFIP, over nearly 1600 innings).

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Just fantasized getting Hughes for nothing from the Twinkies and having him turn into the dominant ace that the Yankees hoped they had...

 

[jon abbey]

Why don't people mention Tampa? They have an excess of starting pitching as usual and could use pretty much anything else, and they are always happy to deal veterans for top prospects to keep their budget down. Is it because they're in the AL East?

 

[dynomite]

Why don't people mention Tampa? They have an excess of starting pitching as usual and could use pretty much anything else, and they are always happy to deal veterans for top prospects to keep their budget down. Is it because they're in the AL East?

I would guess partly because of the AL East and partly because they don't look like sellers at 19-19 (with a 21-17 Pythag).

Also, they're the Rays, so they don't have many expensive veterans. Matt Moore is going to be "expensive" (for the Rays) if they keep him after this year, but he's sort of the left-handed Buchholz and the asking price could still be high since nothing is forcing the Rays' hand.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Nolasco has always massively underperformed his DIPS peripherals (career 4.55 ERA, career 3.81/3.78 FIP/xFIP, over nearly 1600 innings).

And it's because of LOB%. Consistently below average throughout his career, third worst this year (Hughes is #2). Twinkees can't strand runners. I wonder if there's a problem for him operating out of the stretch position.

 

[Maximus]

Targets should be Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, the Cleveland top of the rotation starters, Anibal Sanchez and Tehran. I would make Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza untouchable. Eventually, Moncada to 3rd and Shaw to 1st, Benintendi in left. Not saying that the pitchers on this list are obtainable but these are the folks I would be going after with varying degrees of compensation required. I would make Swihart, Owens, Buch, Kelly, Devers and other available in different packages.

 

[jon abbey]

I would guess partly because of the AL East and partly because they don't look like sellers at 19-19 (with a 21-17 Pythag).

Also, they're the Rays, so they don't have many expensive veterans. Matt Moore is going to be "expensive" (for the Rays) if they keep him after this year, but he's sort of the left-handed Buchholz and the asking price could still be high since nothing is forcing the Rays' hand.

Right, but like the A's, they're essentially always sellers if offered a deal that looks like it will help them longer-term, especially in this case when they have Blake Snell sitting in AAA waiting to come up. Chris Archer has a sweet deal that can last through 2021 with club options:

16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)

I'd be investigating his availability as much as anyone else if I was going after a starter to try to bulk up the top of my rotation.

 

[5dice]

Targets should be Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, the Cleveland top of the rotation starters, Anibal Sanchez and Tehran. I would make Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza untouchable. Eventually, Moncada to 3rd and Shaw to 1st, Benintendi in left. Not saying that the pitchers on this list are obtainable but these are the folks I would be going after with varying degrees of compensation required. I would make Swihart, Owens, Buch, Kelly, Devers and other available in different packages.

So, essentially every Sox player/prospect that has gotten off to a less than stellar 2016 because of injury or ineffectiveness that the Sox now don't *need* to keep in exchange for the best *maybe* available starters? The trade partner teams are sure to love this!

 

[VORP Speed]

Right, but like the A's, they're essentially always sellers if offered a deal that looks like it will help them longer-term, especially in this case when they have Blake Snell sitting in AAA waiting to come up. Chris Archer has a sweet deal that can last through 2021 with club options:

16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)

I'd be investigating his availability as much as anyone else if I was going after a starter to try to bulk up the top of my rotation.

Cobb is definitely available. If you want a potential steal, make a deal for him before he comes back from TJ in July/August. If he comes back and looks like his old self, he'll get moved in the off-season.

 

[nvalvo]

C'mon though, if Ervin Santana is on the list, we're basically just showing how there is very little out there.

Precisely.

So to that end what is likely to be defined as "insane"? One obvious match up I can see here is Blake Swihart for Teheran. The Braves lack any kind of long term answer for catcher and the Red Sox appear to prefer Vaz. So how much more than Swihart would be needed for Teheran? A lottery ticket? One of Owens/Johnson? One of the big four (which I'd imagine most here would consider too much)?

I'm of the belief that it wouldn't be anything too absurdly prohibitive beyond Swihart, who himself is a pretty high value piece as an ML ready and tested starting catcher with effectively all of his pre-FA control left.

If Teheran keeps looking good further into the season, I might be willing to send Swihart+ for him. But after the Dansby Swanson deal, and with Teheran the highest-profile pitching target, I'm not sure that gets it done.

But there's a better chance Buchholz and/or Kelly turn things around than there is to pry away a really good starter before the deadline. Any teams who are dead in the water for the second wild card will be that way because their pitching stinks.

I think the Twins actually match up quite well with the Sox' surplus pieces, also. Whatever it costs, the price will seem too much to obtain Ricky Nolasco, but milk's going to be expensive this year.

You've put your finger precisely on why I doubt a deal happens. It's hard to stare down dealing good prospects for Ricky Nolasco, who's — what, a 60-40 bet? a touch higher? — to outperform what we have in house. It's hard not to see it as drawing value out of the organization. Sometimes that's okay, and we can afford some pricey milk with the depth in our system, but sometimes that milk's cost just doesn't square with its quality.

Just fantasized getting Hughes for nothing from the Twinkies and having him turn into the dominant ace that the Yankees hoped they had...

Again, I'd prefer Buchholz. Believe it or not, Hughes gives up harder contact and has a lower BABIP, although his walk rate is better. I'd rather have, let's say, Buchholz + Michael Chavis than Hughes.

Right, but like the A's, they're essentially always sellers if offered a deal that looks like it will help them longer-term, especially in this case when they have Blake Snell sitting in AAA waiting to come up. Chris Archer has a sweet deal that can last through 2021 with club options:

16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)

I'd be investigating his availability as much as anyone else if I was going after a starter to try to bulk up the top of my rotation.

This is potentially very interesting; I wasn't thinking of any of the AL East teams as likely sellers, but you're right, it is possible. Archer's walk rate spike is concerning, though, and Tampa's willingness to deal him within the division might be a red flag if it in fact materializes. That would definitely be Swihart+, though.

 

[nvalvo]

Cobb is definitely available. If you want a potential steal, make a deal for him before he comes back from TJ in July/August. If he comes back and looks like his old self, he'll get moved in the off-season.

Now you're talking. This is an excellent idea.

 

[Pilgrim]

As long as we're throwing out long shot ideas involving division rivals, the Yankees sound pretty tired of Pineda. Another chronic xFIP underperformer, in this case because he gives up way too many long balls.

 

[jon abbey]

They're definitely tired of Pineda and maybe another setting could wake him up, but I think they'd much prefer to move him to the NL where if he turns around, they're not being constantly reminded of his success until his deal runs out after next season. They don't have ideal alternatives to replace him, but maybe Cessa for now until Severino is back.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Targets should be Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, the Cleveland top of the rotation starters, Anibal Sanchez and Tehran. I would make Moncada, Benintendi and Espinoza untouchable. Eventually, Moncada to 3rd and Shaw to 1st, Benintendi in left. Not saying that the pitchers on this list are obtainable but these are the folks I would be going after with varying degrees of compensation required. I would make Swihart, Owens, Buch, Kelly, Devers and other available in different packages.

Still early, I guess, but worth noting that as of this moment Cleveland holds a percentage-points lead over Texas for the second Wild Card spot. Carrasco (currently on the DL), Salazar, Bauer, et al aren't going anywhere.

 

[dynomite]

Right, but like the A's, they're essentially always sellers if offered a deal that looks like it will help them longer-term, especially in this case when they have Blake Snell sitting in AAA waiting to come up. Chris Archer has a sweet deal that can last through 2021 with club options:

16:$2.75M, 17:$4.75M, 18:$6.25M, 19:$7.5M, 20:$9M club option ($1.75M buyout), 21:$11M club option ($0.25M buyout)

I'd be investigating his availability as much as anyone else if I was going after a starter to try to bulk up the top of my rotation.

Good post.

On Cobb (who was even born in Boston!) I've thought about him, and that deal could make a lot of sense for all involved.

That said:

1) He's rehabbing from TJ and probably won't pitch in the majors until late July/early August, and even then will probably be rounding into form and regaining his control throughout September. Plus, any setbacks could prevent him from pitching in 2016 at all. So in many ways I wonder whether the Sox it would only really want to add Cobb with an eye toward the 2017 rotation, rather than depend upon him to contribute meaningfully to 2016. (Could still make sense anyway)

2) On top of all that... if you're the Rays, it's got to be pretty tempting to go into 2017 with a rotation of Archer/Cobb/Snell/Smyly/Odorizzi, right? Indeed, it could make them one of the favorites in the AL. Obviously there's financial pressure and their lineup is a mess, but from an on-field point of view they might think they have a shot at a World Series with that rotation.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

As long as we're throwing out long shot ideas involving division rivals, the Yankees sound pretty tired of Pineda. Another chronic xFIP underperformer, in this case because he gives up way too many long balls.

Pineda wouldn't be an improvement over what the Red Sox already have. They might as well stick with Buchholz or promote Owens than acquire Pineda. I'm not sure what Pineda's problem is this year, but you always have to be worried about the health of his shoulder.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

To me Teheran is likely to be the prize of this summer if someone gets him from Atlanta. He has a very reasonable contract and he's reaching his physical peak at this point, with his play this season dispelling some of the concerns related to his lackluster 2015.

So to that end what is likely to be defined as "insane"? One obvious match up I can see here is Blake Swihart for Teheran. The Braves lack any kind of long term answer for catcher and the Red Sox appear to prefer Vaz. So how much more than Swihart would be needed for Teheran? A lottery ticket? One of Owens/Johnson? One of the big four (which I'd imagine most here would consider too much)?

I'm of the belief that it wouldn't be anything too absurdly prohibitive beyond Swihart, who himself is a pretty high value piece as an ML ready and tested starting catcher with effectively all of his pre-FA control left.

Bill Shanks, a Fox Sports reporter who covers the Braves, has suggested Swihart + Chavis in this tweet, FYI.

I think you raise the million dollar question: what else would the Red Sox have to surrender for Teheran besides Swihart? If the Braves want Moncada or Benintendi or Espinoza then forget about it. On the other hand, I would trade Swilhart and Devers or Swilhart and Kopech or Swilhart and Chavis for Teheran. While I like Devers' bat, he will never be a quality defensive player, thus making him more expendable.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think you raise the million dollar question: what else would the Red Sox have to surrender for Teheran besides Swihart? If the Braves want Moncada or Benintendi or Espinoza then forget about it. On the other hand, I would trade Swilhart and Devers or Swilhart and Kopech or Swilhart and Chavis for Teheran. While I like Devers' bat, he will never be a quality defensive player, thus making him more expendable.

Pretty much every selling GM at the deadline this year is going to look at Philly, and then ask for a Giles-like haul. Then any buying GM should take a long look at Houston, get cold feet, and pull back. Pitching is incredibly scare this year, and good pitching even more so. Prices are going to be through the roof, and the cost of a marginal improvement is going to be exorbitant.

Only five teams are falling out of the wild card race (over 5 games back): Minnesota, Atlanta, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee. The last of those two have no good pitchers whatsoever.

Buchholz has a career FIP of 3.97. Kelly's is 4.19. On those 5 bad teams, there are 4 healthy starters earning more than minimum salary, with a 2016 season FIP below Kelly's: Pomeranz, Teheran, Santana, and Nolasco.

It's slim pickings out there, until some other teams start falling out of the race.

 

[simplicio]

But after the Dansby Swanson deal, and with Teheran the highest-profile pitching target, I'm not sure that gets it done.

If teams all decide to start holding out for Miller/Swanson type deals, I don't think anybody gets dealt anywhere, except maybe to Arizona. Find me another GM anywhere that thinks the Dbacks paid a reasonable price and I'll eat my hat.

 

[nvalvo]

If teams all decide to start holding out for Miller/Swanson type deals, I don't think anybody gets dealt anywhere, except maybe to Arizona. Find me another GM anywhere that thinks the Dbacks paid a reasonable price and I'll eat my hat.

I hear you, but that deal happened in an offseason with a fairly large number of free agent pitching alternatives. We're talking about deadline deals in advance of an offseason where that won't be true.

I don't think anyone gets dealt anywhere.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

If teams all decide to start holding out for Miller/Swanson type deals, I don't think anybody gets dealt anywhere, except maybe to Arizona. Find me another GM anywhere that thinks the Dbacks paid a reasonable price and I'll eat my hat.

Do any of the teams with surplus pitching absolutely need to make a trade? I don't see that.

All of the pitchers being discussed (except Hill) are guys performing well on reasonable contracts and under control for at least one more year after this one. None of them are high-priced guys, and none of them are on guaranteed contracts ending in 2016.

To divest these sort of assets, it has to be worthwhile for the club to not keep the pitchers themselves for future seasons that might start better. Plus there's always next offseason, and the trade deadline in 2017, and so on. Not to say the buying team should just give away the farm, but in this kind of market the selling team will be justified asking for the moon.

 

[rotundlio]

Michael Pineda

Not good, but probably great, he is afflicted with the most severe case of Danny Salazar Syndrome. You can see it on his neck there. 2.95/3.09 xFIP/SIERA last season but the Mr. BABIP since then, he is also victimized by a third-worst homerun-to-flyball ratio because f—k the Yankees. o/ ..He gave up only two more homers to left field than right. You can clearly make out their fence! Look at that one asshole. Yet Pineda doesn't allow an inordinate number of line drives or "hard-hit."

He does pound the strikezone and consistently work ahead. In his start against us I think he'd managed 18 of 19 first-pitch strikes. Last year he ceded Bartolo Colón the walks crown, which is really very impressive. But he's a comfortable "#1" in terms of K%, as well, and posts elite swinging strike rates. His groundball-to-flyball ratio is a full standard deviation better than average. He is right now experiencing velocity gains and striking out more hitters four years removed from a labral tear. The Yanks are well shot of him.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Joe Kelly.... you're our only hope.
Joe Kelly.... you're our only hope.

 

[Drek717]

If Teheran keeps looking good further into the season, I might be willing to send Swihart+ for him. But after the Dansby Swanson deal, and with Teheran the highest-profile pitching target, I'm not sure that gets it done.

I wouldn't expect any team, especially the Braves, to expect another Dansby Swanson for Shelby Miller uneven deal to occur any time soon. That, to me, reeks of La Russa thinking he had it all figured out on the player personnel side and going after Miller because he thought he and Duncan knew better than everyone else. He's also a win now not win later kind of guy who often pushed for GMs in St. Louis to sell out the farm to get him short term help. No one expects a similar perfect storm to develop when making any deal.

As for Teheran, Swihart, and the Braves I really think there is some serious potential there. Teheran has a nice contract and is entering his prime years, but he is doing so with a team looking to begin a full youth movement starting next season. His controlled years are on the back end of where the Braves expect to become highly competitive. Meanwhile they have a glaring hole at catcher now and into the future, catcher is as hard to fill as a front end starter in MLB today, and Swihart is the best catching prospect in all of baseball who is basically ML ready now.

That makes the Braves a better team in the window they're looking to compete in, and ultimately that is what really matters to GMs. What's the window, does this move make us better in that window? The Braves have clearly identified their window and have been trading cost controlled starters (Simmons, Wood) for prospects who fit that window for about a full year now. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them move Teheran and possibly Freeman in similar deals this season.

Swihart and Chavis would be a great deal for the Sox but I'd expect it to be something like Swihart and Owens/Johnson as the Braves would want young cost controlled pitching that fits their window more than a low minors former first round lottery ticket. I think the biggest hangup is going to be Dombrowksi's willingness to see what Buchholz/ERod/Kelly offer before making any moves.

 

[grimshaw]

I was thinking of Freeman plugging their (the Braves) holes as well. And given the immediate dearth of pitching out there, and absolute nada coming up in free agency, I wonder if the Braves just hang onto Teheran until the offseason unless some team does something stupid.

I agree about a Shelby Miller type deal not happening again any time soon. Most GM's have to know that, though I'm sure they'll still try and point at it half-assed when trying to deal.

 

[Toe Nash]

If we're focusing on the playoffs, I don't think we need a starter. We spent $217m on Price who can pitch three times in a playoff series (maybe not all starts but he can definitely give you a few innings in a game 7). You have Porcello who will probably be OK if not dominant. Anyone you can add is going to be just as much of a coinflip as the guys we have. I'd rather trade for another reliever given the likely lower asking price, Koji's age and Smith's health. Then you're just asking EdRod or Clay or whoever to give you 5 good innings in their starts and you can hopefully give the rest to a combo of Smith, Koji, Tazawa, Kimbrel, and [new acquisition].

If we're focusing on getting to the playoffs, I think we could use an innings-eater so you avoid having to pitch Sean O'Sullivan again. But that guy may be Elias who has a decent MLB track record and while he started poorly, put up a 7.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 13 K in his last AAA start.

 

[Devizier]

My preference is "no one" -- at least for now -- but if the Mets lose their patience with Matt Harvey, perhaps a deal could be made there.

 

[InsideTheParker]

My preference is "no one" -- at least for now -- but if the Mets lose their patience with Matt Harvey, perhaps a deal could be made there.

Please explain. He seems to have fallen into a pretty deep hole right now and doesn't seem to know how to climb out. It isn't a matter of Mets losing patience, but nobody being able to figure out what's wrong with him. Both velocity and location are significantly off. How bright red do the warning signs need to be?

 

[Devizier]

Please explain. He seems to have fallen into a pretty deep hole right now and doesn't seem to know how to climb out. It isn't a matter of Mets losing patience, but nobody being able to figure out what's wrong with him. Both velocity and location are significantly off. How bright red do the warning signs need to be?

1) For the year, his velocity is down, but only slightly. Reports of him throwing 91-92 in the recent blowup against the Nats is concerning, but his overall body of work this season is not far from career averages.
2) His BABIP against is highest in the league among qualified starters. Even accounting for diminished ability, Harvey is just facing some plain bad luck so far.
3) I don't think it's reasonable to expect ace-level performance from Harvey again, but I do think he could be a solid #2-#3 level pitcher going forward (e.g. Porcello level).

 

[TeddyBallgame9]

1) For the year, his velocity is down, but only slightly. Reports of him throwing 91-92 in the recent blowup against the Nats is concerning, but his overall body of work this season is not far from career averages.
2) His BABIP against is highest in the league among qualified starters. Even accounting for diminished ability, Harvey is just facing some plain bad luck so far.
3) I don't think it's reasonable to expect ace-level performance from Harvey again, but I do think he could be a solid #2-#3 level pitcher going forward (e.g. Porcello level).

Also, some of the highlights I saw last night show how awful Cespedes and Conforto are defensively. Not saying Harvey didn't get hit hard but a few of those "hits" looked like outs for a competent major league outfielder.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Please explain. He seems to have fallen into a pretty deep hole right now and doesn't seem to know how to climb out. It isn't a matter of Mets losing patience, but nobody being able to figure out what's wrong with him. Both velocity and location are significantly off. How bright red do the warning signs need to be?

Off compared to where they were last year, sure, but he still throws hard and his situation independent numbers are still solid (3.66 FIP). 62 percent strand rate that is almost certainly luck. I think it's crazy that the Mets are talking about pulling him from the rotation. If they would actually sell low on Harvey sign me up. It would be a huge mistake.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Can we make certain pitchers targets? I nominate Clay.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Here are some terrible ideas:

Justin Verlander is owed around $150 million for the next five-and-a-half years. He is probably better than Clay, but not by miles. Would Detroit kick in $60MM and take a low-ceiling arm like Owens or Johnson and take a shot from there?

Jeremy Hellickson in many ways feels like Clay's doppelgänger (erstwhile hot shot prospect, often injured, punch able face, inconsistent, throws a lot of pitches and won't hardly ever get you to the seventh inning), but he's around the plate (50 K/13 BB in 49 IP) and his WHIP is manageable 1.25. One-year deal for which the Phils would likely accept a modest prospect of almost any position

Updating Drew Pomerantz, he's now rolled off seven quality starts in his last eight outings for the Padres. Only 27 and arb eligible next year -- won't be cheap, but certainly well shy of "big four" cost.

 

[rotundlio]

Michael Pineda

Not good, but probably great, he is afflicted with the most severe case of Danny Salazar Syndrome. You can see it on his neck there. 2.95/3.09 xFIP/SIERA last season but the Mr. BABIP since then, he is also victimized by a third-worst homerun-to-flyball ratio because f—k the Yankees. .o/ ..He gave up only two more homers to left field than right. You can clearly make out their fence! Look at that one asshole. Yet Pineda doesn't allow an inordinate number of line drives or "hard-hit."

He does pound the strikezone and consistently work ahead. In his start against us I think he'd managed 18 of 19 first-pitch strikes. Last year he ceded Bartolo Colón the walks crown, which is really very impressive. But he's a comfortable "#1" in terms of K%, as well, and posts elite swinging strike rates. His groundball-to-flyball ratio is a full standard deviation better than average. He is right now experiencing velocity gains and striking out more hitters four years removed from a labral tear. The Yanks are well shot of him.

Jaime García

Staff ace when he's healthy, consistently and reliably as anyone out there. Worst xFIP since 2011 was a 3.39-spot, and he's actually pitched every year. Improved velocity and Ks in this most recent short sample would bode well, but this is Jaime García here, so possibly we are nearing the end of his career.

However, the Cardinals are so flush with young pitching and scouting reports that when his arm tears off during a 2-1 delivery and cartwheels 45 feet toward the plate they can just plug in their next three-star cookie cutter captain of the baseball team and be fine if not better off. I wonder what Jaime costs the good guys to acquire via trade.


Jorge de la Rosa

Something is afoot in the Coors Closer to God Gravity Launch Pad: once you visit, you can never leave. The Rockies underperform hilariously during road games as if they'd been given dengue on the flight. Coors Field is the ideal place to hold a bat and ball game, but sadly it is one of a kind. It will accommodate every double while still allowing the most home runs anywhere. Its infield plays fast.

de la Rosa has lived this hellish nightmare since Papelbon leapt off the mound there. Still, he posts excellent swinging strike percentages and good groundball rates. He's been nominal ace for many years, one of the best pitchers in team history. Decline in velocity is worrying.


Raisel Iglesias

As I remember, he throws sliders with three grips from three arm angles that behave as nine pitches with which he posts excellent peripheral metric scores. I'd expect a learning curve for any player, let alone a Cuban native of this sort. He is potentially Vázquez's soulmate. Shoulder hurts! Difficult to gauge value in the first place. Still for the right price you could have his prime earning years for which he's underpaid.


Carlos Frías

He alone of these players has a pitching projection model named after him: FRIAS, Future Regression of Ideal Analytic Statistics, predicated upon FanGraphs metrics and accurate. Now that URIAS (Ultimate Regency over same) is set to blink down every hitter in baseball, maybe they don't demand a starter in return. Great rehab outing. Beat up on AAA in 2015.


Jhoulys Chacín

Just bouncing around the league right now like he's Ryan Lavarnway, but off to a mildly auspicious start King guys, suppressing walks, inducing lots of grounders. Might be flukish; possibly could be attributed to a velocity spike; or he might totally be channeling his inner Rookie of the Year candidate again. Pitchers become stars after 30, sometimes. Did not cover himself with glory his first start in Anaheim.


Rubby de la Rosa

In exchange for Sandoval, Castillo, Buchholz, and Rutledge.

 

[grimshaw]

I mean - technically some of those guys are on the market . ..

There is no chance Garcia is going to be available. He has been their best pitcher this season, and with Wainwright aging rapidly, they don't have a clear cut #1 for a playoff series.

Jorge hasn't been good since 2009. And he is completely out of whack. And they mercifully put him on the DL because he wasn't even good enough to be in their rotation this year.

Why would the Reds move Iglesias when he is dirt cheap and he'll be in his prime when they finish the rebuild?

Frias is gettable, but is pretty fringey. Pass on the low k rate, control issues, and non-health.

Chacin is an upgrade over no one. Not even in the bullpen.

 

[moondog80]

Here are some terrible ideas:

Justin Verlander is owed around $150 million for the next five-and-a-half years. He is probably better than Clay, but not by miles. Would Detroit kick in $60MM and take a low-ceiling arm like Owens or Johnson and take a shot from there?

Verlander gets 112 mil over the next 4 years, and a 22 mil option that kicks in if he gets top 5 in Cy in 2020, which won't happen. 52 mil and a prospect for the next 4 years of declining Verlander seems like a pretty bad bet.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Joe Kelly

Should come cheap, throws hard, doesn't have a stupid haircut, wears goofy glasses.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Why don't people mention Tampa? They have an excess of starting pitching as usual and could use pretty much anything else, and they are always happy to deal veterans for top prospects to keep their budget down.

I think the Red Sox have to explore this. It is worth noting that the Rays are pretty desperate for a catcher (B.Swihart) and thus are similar to the Braves in that regard. The A's aren't as desperate for a starting catcher. Thus, I don't think the Red Sox match up well in a Rich Hill trade.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think the Red Sox have to explore this. It is worth noting that the Rays are pretty desperate for a catcher (B.Swihart) and thus are similar to the Braves in that regard. The A's aren't as desperate for a starting catcher. Thus, I don't think the Red Sox match up well in a Rich Hill trade.

If Dombrowski offered Swihart to the A's for Rich Hill, Billy Beane would say yes in a cocaine heartbeat and then pinch himself to make sure he wasn't dreaming.

Hill is going to be a sought after commodity at the deadline but he's not going to require someone as good as Swihart to acquire.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

If Dombrowski offered Swihart to the A's for Rich Hill, Billy Beane would say yes in a cocaine heartbeat and then pinch himself to make sure he wasn't dreaming.

Hill is going to be a sought after commodity at the deadline but he's not going to require someone as good as Swihart to acquire.

I think you're overestimating Swihart, who has always been a hyped Red Sox prospect. He has never produced at an elite level in the minor leagues and now there is reason to doubt his defense behind the plate. He is already 24 years old, he will probably never hit for much power. If Beane can get the equivalent of a Cody Reed or Manaea for Hill then he will have a better deal on the table than a Swihart-for-Hill exchange. Obviously, Swihart would have more value for a team that is desperate for a catcher, but if the A's are reasonably happy with Phegley, and I think they are based on his 2015 production, they don't have a spot for Swihart behind the plate and Swihart loses value as a LF without power.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not overestimating him at all. He's a top catching prospect, even if he's currently playing LF for the Red Sox. Beane would take him even if he isn't "desperate" for catching help because he or Phegley could be flipped for something else if necessary.

And 24 is not old when it comes to catching prospects. It's still downright young. Varitek didn't debut in the big leagues until age 25 and didn't become the #1 catcher until he was 27, which is far closer to the typical progression for a catcher than a true elite (when he debuted) like Pudge Rodriguez, Buster Posey or Joe Mauer. Swihart is playing LF right now because the Sox have an elite defensive catcher ahead of him on the depth chart, not because he's incapable of ever being a big league receiver.